Fred Destin - Tech Tour: Show Me The Money
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A set of supporting slides for my closing remarks and the European Tech Tour's Web and Communities event in Nov 2007
![Social networks are real – usage isn’t hype 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: ComScore 2007, Forrester 2007, Hitwise 2007, Merrill Lynch 2007 VERY LARGE ABSOLUTE SIZE DEEP REACH IN TOTAL POPULATION STICKINESS IS UNPRECEDENTED](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Fred Destin - Tech Tour: Show Me The Money
- 1. Social Networking “ Show me the money” Fred Destin Montreux, 15 November 2007
- 6. Valuations are starting to normalise (thank you Longacre/Jefferies) 1 Statistics US$ per Company Valuation date Enterprise value ($m) Monthly page views (bn) Unique monthly visitors (m) Registered users (m) Monthly page view Unique monthly visitor Registered user MySpace Jul-05 580.0 7.8 17.7 22.0 $0.07 $32.77 $26.36 Current 3,750.0 50.6 105.7 75.0 $0.07 $35.48 $50.00 Facebook Apr-06 525.0 7.6 12.9 7.0 $0.07 $40.70 $75.00 Current 15,000.0 33.0 69.3 24.0 $0.45 $216.45 $625.00 Friends Reunited Dec 05 (w/o earnout) 208.0 0.2 5.1 16.4 $0.93 $40.78 $12.68 Dec 05 (w/ earnout) 303.4 0.2 5.1 16.4 $1.35 $59.49 $18.50 Club Penguin Aug 07 (w/o earnout) 350.0 0.5 10.0 0.7 $0.69 $35.06 $500.00 Aug 07 (w/ earnout) 700.0 0.5 10.0 0.7 $1.39 $70.13 $1,000.00 Last.fm May-07 280.0 0.1 11.5 15.0 $2.37 $24.35 $18.67 iVillage Mar-06 616.0 0.3 18.2 NA $2.46 $33.85 NA AuFeminin Jun-07 382.3 1.9 20.0 NA $0.20 $19.14 NA StudiVZ Jan-2007 (w/o earnout) 44.7 1.3 2.2 NA $0.03 $20.52 NA Jan-2007 (w/ earnout) 75.9 1.3 2.2 NA $0.06 $34.88 NA Fotolog Aug-07 90.0 5.3 15.5 10.0 $0.02 $5.81 $9.00 Median $0.69 $34.88 $26.36 Mean $0.79 $34.49 $238.74 High $2.46 $216.45 $1,000.00 Low $0.02 $5.81 $9.00
- 7. Hold on to your Social Network: the bigger exits are yet to come 1 Annc Date Target Acquirer Target Description/Comments Curr Bid Value (m) Stake (%) Ent Value (m) EV / LTM LTM Margin EV / 1-Year Forward Forward Margin Sales EBITDA Sales EBITDA Social networking 27/08/2007 Fotolog HiMedia Photo sharing community website USD 90.0 100% 90.0 NA NA NA 19.4x NA NA 01/08/2007 Club Penguin (1) Disney Online community for children USD 350.0 100% 350.0 7.0x NA NA 5.8x 11.7x 50.0% 01/06/2007 AuFeminin Axel Springer Online women’s community EUR 280.0 100% 280.0 20.5x 36.1x 57.0% 12.3x 20.4x 60.0% 30/05/2007 Last.fm CBS Corp Online music community site USD 280.0 100% 280.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 09/01/2007 Playahead Modern Times Group Swedish online social networking community SEK 102.0 90% 113.3 4.2x NA NA NA NA NA 08/01/2007 MyBlogLog Yahoo! Blog-based online community USD 10.0 100% 10.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 03/01/2007 StudiVZ (2) Holtzbrinck German-based online community for students EUR 50.0 100% 50.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 06/03/2006 iVillage NBC Universal Women's community site USD 600.0 100% 600.0 6.1x 32.5x 18.6% 5.3x 23.9x 22.2% 06/12/2005 Friends Reunited (3) ITV Online community site GBP 120.0 100% 175.0 10.2x 18.8x 54.2% 7.0x 13.5x 51.7% 18/07/2005 Intermix Media News Corp MySpace USD 580.0 100% 580.0 7.3x 53.2x 13.8% 4.9x 37.9x 13.0% 20/06/2005 Neopets Viacom Virtual pet community USD 160.0 100% 100% NA NA NA NA NA NA 25/10/2004 Classmates Online United Online Online community-based networking USD 100.0 100% 100.0 1.4x 8.7x 15.9% NA NA NM 24/05/2004 Tickle Monster Worldwide Matchmaking and social networking services USD 93.9 100% 93.9 3.8x NA NM NA NA NM Median 6.8x 35.4x 18.6% 6.4x 20.4x 50.0%