India's cement industry is on a trajectory of remarkable growth. The market size, reaching 3,644.5 MT in 2022, anticipates a substantial increase to 4,832.6 MT by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 4.94% during 2023-2028
Let's understand current govt policy to boost cement industry, top 10 cement players, their comparative financial health, current and future production level, growth drivers, relative working capital health and much more.
1. CEMENT INDUSTRY
OUTLOOK
INDIA
Date: 31st December 2023
# Topic Page
A Executive summary | India’s Cement Industry Outlook 2
B Industry landscape & Global Trade
B1 Advantage India – A Growth Odyssey in Cementing India's Future 3
B2 Capacity Projections, Production Trends, and Consumption Outlook 4
B3 Export Trends, Import Dynamics And Cost Challenges 5
C Financial Insights
C1 Top 10 Players in Cement Industry 6
C2 Insights into Company’s Performance 7
C3 Comparative Financial Health Analysis 8
C4 Cement Industry Total Shareholder Value has grown consistently in past years 9
C5 Working Capital 10
D Growth Drivers & Opportunities
D Cement industry is expected to achieve 550-600 MTPA 11
1
2. A Executive summary | India’s Cement Industry – Navigating Growth, Challenges, and Opportunities
• India's cement industry is on a trajectory of remarkable growth, as projected by the NCCBM, estimating an addition of ~80 MT in capacity by 2025.
- India‘ is second-largest cement producer globally (Installed capacity is 570 MT with a production of ~370 MT in FY 2022, 8% of global installed capacity) after China
- The industry landscape boasts total 210 large cement plants, with a notable concentration of 77 plants in key states - Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu
- 210 large cement plants account for a cumulative installed capacity of over 410 MT, while over 350 mini cement plants have an estimated production capacity of
nearly 11.10 MT. India’s top five cement companies account for 48% of India’s 550 MT capacity
- The market size, reaching 3,644.5 MT in 2022, anticipates a substantial increase to 4,832.6 MT by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 4.94% during 2023-2028
- The industry is intricately linked to key sectors and actively supports Government initiatives such as housing for all, smart cities, concrete highways, dedicated freight
corridors (DFC), the Clean India mission, ultra-mega power projects, and waterways; showcasing its integral role in national development
• In 2022, the size of the global cement market reached US$ 363.4 billion, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% during 2023 - 2028 to reach US$
498.23 billion by 2028. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, sticky inflation, and high energy prices continue to hurt logistics and production costs, which have
negatively impacted the global economy and the construction industry. Some of the major developments related to global cement market are as follows:
- Cement production in China declined by more than 10% in 2022 compared to 2021, as a result of the Zero-Covid policy by the Chinese Government
- In Pakistan, cement consumption fell by 7.1% y-o-y in Feb’23 with total dispatches reaching 4.04 MT against 4.35 MT dispatched in Feb’22.
- In Brazil, cement demand was down by almost 3 % in 2022 compared to the corresponding year 2021
- In Argentina, cement’s demand in 2022 saw an increase of around 6% compared to 2021. In the same period, cement production was also up by ~ 7%
- In Spain, the demand was up by less than 1% in 2022 led by the robust growth in the first two months of 2022
• India’s cement industry is facing headwinds, such as, rising input costs including cost of coal and petcoke, and gypsum, which may dent the profitability
of cement manufacture₹. Some of the other facto₹ includes:
- Transportation, non-physical handling, and time inefficiencies contribute to high logistics costs
- Cement plants at a distance from limestone sources result in around 170MT of idle capacity
- Poor road infrastructure and port delays adversely affect timely cement delivery, increasing costs and reducing customer satisfaction
- The cement industry's significant contribution to air pollution and GHGs necessitates compliance with emission standards and energy efficiency norms.
- Globally, the industry faces a challenging 2023 due to sluggish demand arising from geopolitical dynamics and recessions in the US and EU countries.
Overall, The cement industry, with robust long-term growth fundamentals, stands as an attractive proposition for FDI in line with India's 'Make in India' initiative. Despite a
~300MT dip in FY 2021 due to pandemic-related facto₹, recent years have witnessed satisfactory production. The infrastructure-centric Union Budget has bolstered
industry demand, and the outlook remains positive, fueled by strong demand from the thriving infrastructure and housing sectors. It is expected that the cement
production will rise by ~ 6-8% in the coming fiscal years 2023 and 2024, i.e., driven by the strong demand from the India's housing sector.
2
Source: Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division), AT Kearney, CARE Ratings, NAREDCO and APREA, Union Budget 2021-22; https://www.ibef.org ;
3. Industry landscape | Advantage India – A Growth Odyssey in Cementing India's Future
1. Robust Demand
• In October 2021, Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, launched the ‘PM Gati Shakti - National Master Plan (NMP)’ for multimodal connectivity. Gati
Shakti will bring synergy to create a world-class, seamless multimodal transport network in India. This will boost the demand for cement in the future.
• Opportunities available in areas such as housing, dedicated freight corridors, ports and other infrastructure projects.
• Government has plans for 33.4% outlays for capital investments to US$ 120 billion (₹10 lakh crores) and outlays for railways of US$ 29.05 billion (₹.
2.4 lakh crores). Also, plans to build 100 new significant transport projects involving an investment of US$ 9.04 billion (₹75,000 crores) for end-to-end
connectivity for ports, coal, steel etc.
• FDI inflows in the industry, related to the manufacturing of cement and gypsum products, reached US$ 5.49 billion between April 2000-March 2023
• National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) introduced projects worth US$ 14.59 billion (₹102 lakh crore) for the next five years.
• As per the Union Budget 2023-24, the government approved an outlay of US$ 32.57 billion (₹2.7 lakh crore) for the Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways i.e., 30% higher as compared to the budget estimate of US$ 24.01 billion (₹1.99 lakh crore).
• As per ICRA, in FY22, the cement production in India is expected to increase by ~12% YoY, driven by rural housing demand and government’s strong
focus on infrastructure development.
• As per Crisil Ratings, the Indian cement industry is likely to add ~80 MT capacity by FY24, the highest since the last 10 years, driven by increasing
spending on housing and infrastructure activities.
• The Indian cement sector's capacity is expected to expand at a CAGR of 4-5% over the four- year period up to the end of the FY27. It would thus
begin the 2028 financial year at 715-725 MT/ year in installed capacity.
• Higher allocation for infrastructure– US$ ; 120 billion (₹. 10 trillion), apart from additional expenditure on green transition, is likely to boost demand
3
B1
2. Attractive
opportunities
3. Increasing
Investments
4. Long Term
Potential
• Oligopoly market, where large players have partial pricing control; Low threat from substitutes.
• Indian cement companies are among the world’s greenest cement manufacturers.
• In July 2021, UltraTech Cement Chairman, Mr. Kumar Mangalam Birla stated that Indian government’s spending on affordable housing schemes and
infrastructure plans—such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, with enhanced budgetary allocations—is expected to boost the cement industry
• Adani group will set up two new cement manufacturing plants, 15,000 MW of renewable power projects, and a data center in Andhra Pradesh.
• In June 2023, Shree Cement announced four planned capacity expansion projects that aim to increase its installed cement production capacity by
20% to 55.9 MT/year.
Source: Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division), AT Kearney, CARE Ratings, NAREDCO and APREA, Union Budget 2021-22; https://www.ibef.org ;
4. Key Insights
1. The Indian sector's capacity is expected
to expand at CAGR of 4-5% over the
four-year period up to the end of FY27. It
would thus begin the 2028 financial year
at 715-725 MT/ year in installed capacity.
At present, the Installed capacity of
cement in India is 570 MTPA with a
production of 298 MTPA.
2. Cement production increased by 7.3% in
Feb’23 driven by rural housing demand
and government’s strong focus on
infrastructure development. The Indian
cement industry is likely to add ~80MT
capacity by FY24, driven by increasing
spending on housing and infrastructure
activities.
3. Cement consumption is expected to
reach 451MT by the end of FY27. India’s
total cement consumption was projected
to cross 370MT in 2022-23. Domestic
consumption was likely to be 373.1MT
during the year, growing by 6.3% over
the preceding year. The first half of the
FY23 did quite well with 10%
consumption growth. It was expected
that the consumption from the real estate
and infrastructure construction sectors
will remain steady in the H2 of FY23
Industry landscape | Capacity Projections, Production Trends, and Consumption Outlook
B2
4
Notes: MTPA-Million Tonnes Per Annum, E-Estimates
Source: Indian Minerals Yearbook by Indian Bureau of Mines; Ultratech Cement
South
(T
amil Nadu,Andhra
Pradesh, T
elangana
Karnataka)
183.11 MTPA
East (West
Bengal, Chhattisgarh,
Odisha, Jharkhand)
84.12 MTPA
North
(Rajasthan,
Punjab, Haryana)
86.85 MTPA
West
(Gujarat,
Maharashtra)
78.52 MTPA
Central
(Uttar Pradesh, Madhya
Pradesh)
68.91 MTPA
270 288
328 327
285
351 375
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
3. Current Cement Production
2. Expected Installed Capacity
(MTPA)
(MT)
4.Current Cement Consumption
(MT)
267 285
325 328
285
351 375
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
CAGR 5.65%
Used capacity: 67%
CAGR 5.68%
1. India’s Region Wise Installed Capacity
CAGR 5%
560
715
2022 2029
5. 1709
1769
1485
752
780
816
727
770
791
857
2677
2572
2254
2040
1712
1166
690
734
790
771
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
Imports Exports
6. Cement Imports from Countries
5. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
(‘000 tonnes)
(‘000 tonnes)
Key Insights
1. The export of cement, which was 337MT in 2015-16 reduced to 117MT 2021-22. Going forward, the global
demand for Indian cement is likely to be a bit subdued given the slowdown and looming recessionary fears.
With the recovery in domestic demand, imports by India gained traction from 752MT in 2019-20 to 816MT in
2021-22
2. As per Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), India’s export of Portland
cement, aluminous cement, slag cement, supersulphate cement and similar hydraulic cements stood at US$
601.78 million in FY21-22. India exports most of its concrete cement to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and UAE.
Currently, India comes after Spain, Germany, Italy, and China in the list of global cement exporters.
3. India’s export of panel cement, clinkers, and asbestos cement products stood at US$ 682.32 million in FY23
while the imports were US$ 288.42 million.
4. The cement import by India also significantly declined from 1,769 MT in 2017-18 to 752 MT in 2019-20 due
to the pandemic. With the recovery in domestic demand, imports by India gained traction from 752 MT in
2019-20 to 816 MT in 2021-22
5. Sri Lanka is the largest buyer of India’s cement, whereas it had imported ₹ 350.6 crores of cement from India
in 2021-22. Nepal was the second largest importer of India’s cement followed by Maldives, UAE, and
Mauritius
6. The cement manufacturers refrained from raising prices of cement due to continued elevated cost of inputs.
The average price of limestone (cement grade) increased by around 17% in 2021-22 and about 10% during
the April-November 2022 period.
7. The wholesale prices of other inputs, such as, petroleum coke had also increased by 66.2% in 2021-22 and
37.4% between April 2022 and January 2023. The wholesale price of diesel rose 20% in 2021-22 and 4% till
January 2023
7. Top Destinations of India's Cement Exports
($M)
Global Trade | Export Trends, Import Dynamics And Cost Challenges
B3
5
Notes: ‘E’ represents ‘Estimated’ figures
Source: Infomerics Economic Research - Cement-Industry-Report-May2023.pdf ; https://www.ibef.org/industry/cement-india
4
41
196
131
395
4
73
196
207
330
China
Oman
Bhutan
Bangladesh
UAE
FY21
FY20
4424
203 294 68 139
3506
193
179 107 65
Sri Lanka Nepal Maldives UAE Mauritius
FY20 FY21
6. 8
Key Insights
1. Market Share: Ultra Tech Cement tops the
list with a 33% market share as of 2023.
Adani group stocks which are ACC and
ambuja cement takes the second spot with
a 23% market share. They are followed by
Shree cement and Dalmia bharat.
2. Revenue Growth: Nuvoco Vistas stands
out with an impressive revenue growth of
19%, showcasing exceptional performance
and potential market dominance.
Companies like UltraTech Cement, Shree
Cement, The Ramco Cements, and JK
Cements have exhibited strong positive
revenue growth, ranging from 7% to 13%.
This indicates robust financial health and
effective business strategies.
3. PBDIT Margin (%): Shree Cement has the
highest PBDIT margin, indicating strong
profitability from its core operations.
Current EBITDA margin for cement
industry is targeted to be raised to about
25% from 20% by 2024
4. Net Profit Margin (%): UltraTech Cement
leads in net profit margin, showcasing
efficient management after considering all
expenses.
Net Profit
Margin (%)
Capacity
(MTPA)
Revenue
Growth (5 yrs.)
LTM Revenue
(₹ Crores)
Market Share
(%)
Market
Cap (₹)
Brand
Financial Insights: Key Players in Cement Industry in India
C1
2
3
3
4
5
5
9
11
12
33
PBDIT
Margin (%)
Notes: All values in crores; Nuvoco got listed in Mar’21, Financial period for all the companies is from Apr – Mar except Ambuja Cements & ACC ltd; Latter restructured its period from Jan- Dec to Apr – Mar in 2022; For the sake of
simplicity same has been calculated basis Calendar year
Source: Official Websites, Annual Reports, moneycontrol.in, Secondary Research
302,796 61,326.5 9% 17.58 8.01 137.9
41,480 22,210.0 4% 10.2 3.91 70.0
103,442 19,985.4 3% 15.05 7.69 31.5
103,149 16,837.5 7% 20.03 7.88 46.4
29,215 8,998.6 13% 14.42 4.31 13.9
13,668 8,581.5 19% 11.55 0.14 23.8
23,985 8,135.3 10% 14.93 4.19 22.0
10,614 6,071.1 8% 13.89 5.72 13.9
8,023 5,380.8 -1% -1.83 -3.02 15.5
4,860 3,954.7 -7% 11.28 -18.78 9.4
7. 8
Key Insights
1. Depreciation and Amortization (D&A):
Shree Cement and JK Cements have
higher D&A to Revenue ratios, suggesting
significant asset depreciation expenses
and potential investment in long-term
assets. JK Cements also exhibits a
substantial D&A CAGR, indicating
increased depreciation expenses over
time.
2. Finance Costs: Jaypee Associates faces
financial challenges with the highest
Finance Costs to Revenue ratio.
Significant negative Finance Costs CAGR
for Nuvoco Vistas indicates a declining
trend in finance costs.
3. Earnings Per Share (EPS): Nuvoco
Vistas reports a negative EPS, signifying a
loss per share. UltraTech Cement and
Shree Cement have comparatively higher
positive EPS values.
4. EV/EBITDA (X): Shree Cement stands out
with the highest EV/EBITDA, suggesting
potential higher market valuation relative
to EBITDA. ACC Ltd and JK Lakshmi
Cement have relatively lower EV/EBITDA
value
EV/EBITDA
(X)
Finance Costs
CAGR*
Finance to
Revenue (Mar’23)
D & A to Revenue
ratio (Mar’23)
D& A Expense
CAGR*
Brand
Notes: All values in crores; Nuvoco got listed in Mar’21, Financial period for all the companies is from Apr – Mar except Ambuja Cements & ACC ltd; Latter restructured its period from Jan- Dec to Apr – Mar in 2022; For the sake of
simplicity same has been calculated basis Calendar year
Source: Official Websites, Annual Reports, moneycontrol.in, Secondary Research
Financial Insights: Key Insights into Company Performance
C2
Earning Per
Share
4.5% 4.2% 1.3% -17.5% 175.6 20.57
3.5% 1.0% 0.4% -3.1% 47.1 13.64
4.1% 2.9% 0.6% 3.5% 13.0 13.09
9.1% 3.1% 1.4% 1.5% 368.1 28.71
4.7% 17.4% 3.2% 4.6% 55.2 19.05
9.0% 9.5% 4.8% -12.2% 0.4 13.67
6.2% 14.0% 2.9% 47.1% 14.0 18.2
3.5% 2.0% 2.0% -15.0% 30.5 12.11
3.9% -4.6% 4.3% -8.9% -4.0 -84.04
5.1% -15.2% 13.9% -20.2% -5.5 20.95
8. 8
Key Insights
1. Return on Capital Employed (%): JK
Lakshmi Cement has the highest return on
capital employed, indicating effective
utilization of capital.
2. Return on Assets (%): Shree Cement
demonstrates the highest return on assets,
while Jaypee Associates has a negative
return, indicating challenges in generating
returns from its assets.
3. Debt/Equity ratio: One can expect
companies in the cement industry to incur
debt due to the capital-intensive nature of
the industry. Despite this ACC and Ambuja
Cements have managed to have no debt
4. Liquidity ratios (Current, Quick ratio):
UltraTech Cement and JK Lakshmi
Cement exhibit strong liquidity with higher
Current and Quick Ratios.
5. Operational Efficiency: ACC Ltd has a
high Inventory Turnover, indicating
efficient inventory management. Indian
Cements and Jaypee Associates display
lower Asset Turnover, indicating areas for
operational improvement
Asset
Turnover
Current
Ratio
Total
Debt/Equity
Return on Capital
Employed (%)
Return on
Assets
Brand
Financial Insights: Comparative Financial Health Analysis
C3
Quick
Ratio
Inventory
Turnover
Notes: All values in crores; Nuvoco got listed in Mar’21, Financial period for all the companies is from Apr – Mar except Ambuja Cements & ACC ltd; Latter restructured its period from Jan- Dec to Apr – Mar in 2022; For the sake of
simplicity same has been calculated basis Calendar year
Source: Official Websites, Annual Reports, moneycontrol.in, Secondary Research
12.11 5.54 0.18 0.89 0.6 1.46 0.72
9.56 4.3 0 1.46 1.18 6.27 1.07
10.48 4.99 0 1.67 1.39 3.51 0.49
9.5 5.14 0.14 1.23 0.87 2.99 0.68
9.12 3.2 1.07 1.27 0.94 1.32 0.81
1.98 0.08 0.52 0.48 0.28 1.61 0.48
6.19 2.15 0.65 0.61 0.32 1.58 0.59
13.62 5.48 0.66 1.17 0.66 3.85 1.09
-3.72 -1.09 0.55 1.21 0.93 1.17 0.46
2.2 -3.55 -12.8 1.56 0.71 0.25 0.19
Median 9.56 3.75 0.2 1.23 0.9 1.60 1.64
9. Cement Industry Total Shareholder Value has grown consistently in past years
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
UltraTech Cement Ltd Shree Cement Ltd Ambuja Cements ACC Ltd JK Cements
The Ramco Cements Ltd Nuvoco Vistas JK Lakshmi Cement Indian Cements Jaypee Associates
C4
Source: Investin.in
10. 8
Key Insights
1. Cash Conversion Cycle: UltraTech
Cement, ACC Ltd, Ambuja Cements, JK
Lakshmi Cement, and The Ramco
Cements Ltd showcase overall efficiency,
with negative or low CCC values indicating
effective conversion of sales into cash
2. Days Sales Outstanding: UltraTech
Cement, ACC Ltd, Ambuja Cements, JK
Cements, and JK Lakshmi Cement
demonstrate efficient management in
converting sales into cash quickly.
3. Days Inventory Outstanding: UltraTech
Cement, ACC Ltd, Ambuja Cements, and
JK Lakshmi Cement effectively control
their inventory
4. Days Payable Outstanding: ACC Ltd,
Ambuja Cements, Shree Cement Ltd, JK
Lakshmi Cement, and The Ramco
Cements Ltd efficiently manage their
payables. UltraTech Cement and JK
Cements maintain moderate DPO
Days Payable
Outstanding (DPO)
Days Sales
Outstanding (DSO)
Days Inventory
Outstanding (DIO)
Brand
Financial Insights: Working Capital Reality Check
C5
Notes: All values in crores; Nuvoco got listed in Mar’21, Financial period for all the companies is from Apr – Mar except Ambuja Cements & ACC ltd; Latter restructured its period from Jan- Dec to Apr – Mar in 2022; For the sake of
simplicity same has been calculated basis Calendar year
Source: Official Websites, Annual Reports, moneycontrol.in, Secondary Research
Cash Conversion
Cycle (CCC)
-2 22 270 295
26 16 76 66
25 13 77 65
81 18 118 55
57 18 240 201
-114 21 217 352
87 21 238 172
37 4 109 76
-136 53 272 461
1424 118 1521 215
11. 29%
25%
23%
12%
11%
Rural Housing Urban Housing
Infrastructure Low-Cost Housing
Commercial
Insights
A. Housing and Real Estate: Real estate market in India is expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2023. Strong growth in rural
housing and low-cost housing to amplify demand. Real estate sector received the highest value of PE/VC investments in Q1
(January-March) of 2023 at US$5 billion, registering an year-over- year 123% growth.
B. Public Infrastructure: In April 2023, the infrastructure and real estate asset class recorded US$ 3 billion in PE/VC investments,
an 82% increase y-o-y and a 3% increase over March 2023. As per the Union Budget 2023-24, the government approved an
outlay of ₹2.7 lakh crores (US$ 32.57 billion) for the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways. As per the Invest India, National
Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) expanded to 9,305 projects from 7,400 projects. Government of India’s push with Smart Cities
Mission and AMRUT.
C. Industrial Development: Strong economic growth is expected to lead to growth of the industrial sector and in turn increase in
demand in the long run. In June 2021, Ambuja Cements and ACC announced to invest in Industry 4.0 under its ‘Plants of
Tomorrow’ programme, which aims to boost cement manufacturing through enhanced plant optimization, improved plant
availability and a safer operational environment.
D. In the next 10 years, India could become the main exporter of clinker and gray cement to the Middle East, Africa, and other
developing nations of the world
E. Cement plants near the ports, for instance the plants in Gujarat and Visakhapatnam, will have an added advantage for export and
will logistically be well armed to face stiff competition from cement plants in the interior of the country
F. The cement demand in India is estimated to touch 419.92 MT by FY27 driven by the expanding demand of different sectors, i.e.,
housing, commercial construction, and industrial construction
% Share of Cement Demand in FY21
11
D Growth Drivers & Opportunities | Cement industry is expected to achieve 550-600 MTPA
Source: Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division), AT Kearney, CARE Ratings, NAREDCO and APREA, Union Budget 2021-22; https://www.ibef.org ;