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Behavioural Economics
JACOB REYNOLDS
Behavioural vs Classical Economics
Classical Economics
In general economists design their models assuming people are
perfectly rational and predictable: homo economicus attempt to
maximise their utility in all instances (rational choice theory).
Behavioural Economics
Behavioural economists do not subscribe to rational choice
theory, they believe individuals make irrational decisions and
explore dynamics thereof.
Behavioural Ec
Topics that will be covered:
Anchoring
Herd Behaviour
Prospect Theory
Regret Theory
Anchoring
•The use of irrelevant
information as a reference
for evaluating or
estimating some unknown
value or information.
•Investors with an
anchoring bias tend to
hold investments to an
anchor (normally original
price) rather than being
guided by fundamentals.
(Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013)
(Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013)
Response latencies for lexical decisions as a function of
word type and anchor (Mussweiler & Strack, 2000).
Steve Jobs’ IPAD Retail Price Anchoring
(EverySteveJobsVideo, 2013)
IPAD Actual Retail Price
(EverySteveJobsVideo, 2013)
(SMBC Comics, 2017)
Scenario 1
Given: £1,000
Choice A: 50% chance of gaining £1,000
Choice B: 100% chance of gaining £500
Scenario 2
Given: £2,000
Choice A: 50% chance of losing £1,000
Choice B: 100% chance of losing £500
Framing of Prospects
Scenario 1
Given £1,000
Choice A: 50% chance of gaining £1,000
Choice B: 100% chance of gaining £500
Scenario 2
Given £2,000
Choice A: 50% chance of losing £1,000
Choice B: 100% chance of losing £500
• “In the first [scenario], a large majority of respondents preferred the sure thing” (Kahneman, 2013).
• “In the second [scenario], a large majority preferred the gamble” (Kahneman, 2013).
Prospect Theory
Helps to explain risk appetite
Loses and gains are valued differently
 Investors are more likely to realise gains
than losses.
Equivalent choice can be presented in
differing context of gain or loss.
(Phung, 2007)
Weighting Function
(Natural Money, 2014)
Herd Behaviour
The tendency for individuals to mimic the actions (rational or irrational) of a larger
group
“It's unlikely that such a large group could be wrong!”
“They must have an information advantage!”
“I don’t want to be a victim of information asymmetry!”
(Wuerker, 2004)
Regret Theory
Fearing the consequences of both errors of omission (e.g., not
buying the right [optimal] investment property) and
commission (e.g., buying the wrong [suboptimal] investment
property)
Individual evaluates his or her expected reactions to a future
event or situation
Regret is the emotion caused by comparing a given outcome,
or state of events, with the state of a foregone choice.
The Bat and Ball Problem
A bat and ball together cost £1.10, the bat costs £1 more than
the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
Bat and Ball Problem Cont.
The ball costs 5 pence.
Bat (£1.05) – Ball (£0.05) = Difference of £1
More than 50% of students at Harvard, MIT, and Princeton
gave the intuitive—incorrect—answer. At less selective
universities, the rate of demonstrable failure to check was in
excess of 80% (Kahneman, 2013).
Reducing Exposure
Rationality is an adaptive
tool.
 People require an adaptive
toolbox: different domains of
thought require different
specialized cognitive
mechanisms.
Gerd Gigerenzer (Alchetron, n.d.)
FURTHER READING
Reference List
Alchetron (n.d.). Gerd Gigerenzer. [image] Available at: http://tedxzurich.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/gerd_gigerenzer_slider-
770x425.jpg [Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
Farrar, Straus and Giroux (2013). Anchoring. [image] Available at: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/HefjkqKCVpo/maxresdefault.jpg [Accessed
21 Oct 2017].
Kahneman, D. (2013). Thinking, fast and slow. 1st ed. London: Penguin, pp.1-281.
Mussweiler, T. and Englich, B. (2005). Subliminal anchoring: Judgmental consequences and underlying mechanisms. [online] Science
Direct, pp.141-149. Available at: https://www.hf.uni-koeln.de/data/dppsenglich/File/PDFSStudien/obhdp98.pdf [Accessed 21 Oct
2017].
Natural Money (2014). Weighting Function. [image] Available at: http://www.naturalmoney.org/pic/fm_weighting_function.jpg
[Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
Phung, A. (2007). Value Function. [image] Available at: http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/JoyLoss.gif [Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
SMBC Comics (2017). Eat the Appple. [image] Available at: http://smbc-comics.com/comic/eat-the-apple [Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
Wuerker, M. (2004). Lemming Logic. [image] Available at: http://www.contributors.ro/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/lemingi.jpg
[Accessed 21 Oct 2017].

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Behavioural Economics: making a case against rational choice theory.

  • 2. Behavioural vs Classical Economics Classical Economics In general economists design their models assuming people are perfectly rational and predictable: homo economicus attempt to maximise their utility in all instances (rational choice theory). Behavioural Economics Behavioural economists do not subscribe to rational choice theory, they believe individuals make irrational decisions and explore dynamics thereof. Behavioural Ec
  • 3. Topics that will be covered: Anchoring Herd Behaviour Prospect Theory Regret Theory
  • 4. Anchoring •The use of irrelevant information as a reference for evaluating or estimating some unknown value or information. •Investors with an anchoring bias tend to hold investments to an anchor (normally original price) rather than being guided by fundamentals. (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013)
  • 5. (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013)
  • 6. Response latencies for lexical decisions as a function of word type and anchor (Mussweiler & Strack, 2000).
  • 7. Steve Jobs’ IPAD Retail Price Anchoring (EverySteveJobsVideo, 2013)
  • 8. IPAD Actual Retail Price (EverySteveJobsVideo, 2013)
  • 10. Scenario 1 Given: £1,000 Choice A: 50% chance of gaining £1,000 Choice B: 100% chance of gaining £500
  • 11. Scenario 2 Given: £2,000 Choice A: 50% chance of losing £1,000 Choice B: 100% chance of losing £500
  • 12. Framing of Prospects Scenario 1 Given £1,000 Choice A: 50% chance of gaining £1,000 Choice B: 100% chance of gaining £500 Scenario 2 Given £2,000 Choice A: 50% chance of losing £1,000 Choice B: 100% chance of losing £500 • “In the first [scenario], a large majority of respondents preferred the sure thing” (Kahneman, 2013). • “In the second [scenario], a large majority preferred the gamble” (Kahneman, 2013).
  • 13. Prospect Theory Helps to explain risk appetite Loses and gains are valued differently  Investors are more likely to realise gains than losses. Equivalent choice can be presented in differing context of gain or loss. (Phung, 2007)
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  • 16. Herd Behaviour The tendency for individuals to mimic the actions (rational or irrational) of a larger group “It's unlikely that such a large group could be wrong!” “They must have an information advantage!” “I don’t want to be a victim of information asymmetry!”
  • 18. Regret Theory Fearing the consequences of both errors of omission (e.g., not buying the right [optimal] investment property) and commission (e.g., buying the wrong [suboptimal] investment property) Individual evaluates his or her expected reactions to a future event or situation Regret is the emotion caused by comparing a given outcome, or state of events, with the state of a foregone choice.
  • 19. The Bat and Ball Problem A bat and ball together cost £1.10, the bat costs £1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
  • 20. Bat and Ball Problem Cont. The ball costs 5 pence. Bat (£1.05) – Ball (£0.05) = Difference of £1 More than 50% of students at Harvard, MIT, and Princeton gave the intuitive—incorrect—answer. At less selective universities, the rate of demonstrable failure to check was in excess of 80% (Kahneman, 2013).
  • 21. Reducing Exposure Rationality is an adaptive tool.  People require an adaptive toolbox: different domains of thought require different specialized cognitive mechanisms. Gerd Gigerenzer (Alchetron, n.d.)
  • 23. Reference List Alchetron (n.d.). Gerd Gigerenzer. [image] Available at: http://tedxzurich.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/gerd_gigerenzer_slider- 770x425.jpg [Accessed 21 Oct 2017]. Farrar, Straus and Giroux (2013). Anchoring. [image] Available at: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/HefjkqKCVpo/maxresdefault.jpg [Accessed 21 Oct 2017]. Kahneman, D. (2013). Thinking, fast and slow. 1st ed. London: Penguin, pp.1-281. Mussweiler, T. and Englich, B. (2005). Subliminal anchoring: Judgmental consequences and underlying mechanisms. [online] Science Direct, pp.141-149. Available at: https://www.hf.uni-koeln.de/data/dppsenglich/File/PDFSStudien/obhdp98.pdf [Accessed 21 Oct 2017]. Natural Money (2014). Weighting Function. [image] Available at: http://www.naturalmoney.org/pic/fm_weighting_function.jpg [Accessed 21 Oct 2017]. Phung, A. (2007). Value Function. [image] Available at: http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/JoyLoss.gif [Accessed 21 Oct 2017]. SMBC Comics (2017). Eat the Appple. [image] Available at: http://smbc-comics.com/comic/eat-the-apple [Accessed 21 Oct 2017]. Wuerker, M. (2004). Lemming Logic. [image] Available at: http://www.contributors.ro/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/lemingi.jpg [Accessed 21 Oct 2017].