Included questions to ask the audience.
Anchoring, weighting function, prospect theory, system 1, system 2, Daniel Kahneman, Herbert A Simon, rational choice theory.
The author conducted an experiment to analyze the disposition effect among 58 student subjects. In a simulated financial market, subjects decided whether to hold or sell assets over 20 periods as values fluctuated. The majority of subjects exhibited the disposition effect by selling winning assets too early and holding losing assets too long. Correlations between the disposition effect and variables like gender, age, major, and risk aversion were explored but inconclusive due to small sample sizes for some groups. Overall, the experiment provided evidence that the disposition effect is present among most investors.
The document discusses economic cognition and summarizes several key points:
1) Economic cognition involves the study of decision-making, preferences, and valuation in economic contexts. It examines both rational and bounded rational models of cognition.
2) Behavioral economics experiments show humans often deviate from strict rational-choice theory due to heuristics, biases, emotions and social/cultural influences.
3) Emotions like loss aversion and risk attitudes are shaped by neural systems and play an important role in guiding rational decisions under uncertainty.
This is a Behavioral Finance Lesson material which delivered by me for PhD students of Faculty of Business Administration in Karvina, Silesian University.
Individual behavior can be described using rational choice theory, which assumes that decision-makers choose options that best satisfy their preferences given constraints and beliefs. However, some empirical findings show ways in which social preferences modify this model of purely rational action. The document discusses experiments conducted in social sciences to understand individual decision-making and how aggregate social outcomes emerge from individual interactions. Specifically, it summarizes experiments that show how arbitrary values like random numbers can influence preferences and valuations, even for goods people have no experience with. The findings suggest preferences are initially sensitive to anchors but become more coherent with experience.
The document discusses the emergence of behavioral finance as an alternative to traditional finance models. Traditional finance assumes rational decision-making, while behavioral finance recognizes psychological and emotional factors that can lead to irrational behavior. Key differences include traditional finance assuming perfect processing of information versus behavioral finance recognizing cognitive biases. Additionally, traditional finance sees framing as inconsequential while behavioral finance finds perceptions influenced by framing. The document then examines specific cognitive biases like representativeness, overconfidence, anchoring, ambiguity aversion, and innumeracy that impact decisions. It also discusses the concepts of prospect theory and mental accounting in relation to framing dependence.
This document outlines 13 principles of behavioral economics: anchoring, availability, chunking, commitment, framing, goal dilution, loss aversion, overweighting small probabilities, hyperbolic discounting, reciprocation, status quo bias, and social proofing. For each principle, a brief theory is provided along with a short example to illustrate how it applies to decision making. The document serves to explain key concepts in behavioral economics through concise definitions and relatable scenarios.
Why Behavioral Finance is Helpful for Investors to Decision Making Process?QUESTJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: Behavioral finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets. It is of interest because it helps explain why and how markets might be inefficient.
The author conducted an experiment to analyze the disposition effect among 58 student subjects. In a simulated financial market, subjects decided whether to hold or sell assets over 20 periods as values fluctuated. The majority of subjects exhibited the disposition effect by selling winning assets too early and holding losing assets too long. Correlations between the disposition effect and variables like gender, age, major, and risk aversion were explored but inconclusive due to small sample sizes for some groups. Overall, the experiment provided evidence that the disposition effect is present among most investors.
The document discusses economic cognition and summarizes several key points:
1) Economic cognition involves the study of decision-making, preferences, and valuation in economic contexts. It examines both rational and bounded rational models of cognition.
2) Behavioral economics experiments show humans often deviate from strict rational-choice theory due to heuristics, biases, emotions and social/cultural influences.
3) Emotions like loss aversion and risk attitudes are shaped by neural systems and play an important role in guiding rational decisions under uncertainty.
This is a Behavioral Finance Lesson material which delivered by me for PhD students of Faculty of Business Administration in Karvina, Silesian University.
Individual behavior can be described using rational choice theory, which assumes that decision-makers choose options that best satisfy their preferences given constraints and beliefs. However, some empirical findings show ways in which social preferences modify this model of purely rational action. The document discusses experiments conducted in social sciences to understand individual decision-making and how aggregate social outcomes emerge from individual interactions. Specifically, it summarizes experiments that show how arbitrary values like random numbers can influence preferences and valuations, even for goods people have no experience with. The findings suggest preferences are initially sensitive to anchors but become more coherent with experience.
The document discusses the emergence of behavioral finance as an alternative to traditional finance models. Traditional finance assumes rational decision-making, while behavioral finance recognizes psychological and emotional factors that can lead to irrational behavior. Key differences include traditional finance assuming perfect processing of information versus behavioral finance recognizing cognitive biases. Additionally, traditional finance sees framing as inconsequential while behavioral finance finds perceptions influenced by framing. The document then examines specific cognitive biases like representativeness, overconfidence, anchoring, ambiguity aversion, and innumeracy that impact decisions. It also discusses the concepts of prospect theory and mental accounting in relation to framing dependence.
This document outlines 13 principles of behavioral economics: anchoring, availability, chunking, commitment, framing, goal dilution, loss aversion, overweighting small probabilities, hyperbolic discounting, reciprocation, status quo bias, and social proofing. For each principle, a brief theory is provided along with a short example to illustrate how it applies to decision making. The document serves to explain key concepts in behavioral economics through concise definitions and relatable scenarios.
Why Behavioral Finance is Helpful for Investors to Decision Making Process?QUESTJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: Behavioral finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets. It is of interest because it helps explain why and how markets might be inefficient.
This study examines whether people truly behave rationally as assumed in many economic models. The author surveys 227 University of San Diego undergraduate students, asking them to complete two games: Prisoner's Dilemma and a Pick-the-Average game. Contrary to the hypotheses, factors like being an economics major or having a higher GPA did not significantly impact rational decision making. While some limitations exist, the study questions the validity of Rational Choice Theory and assumptions of rational behavior in economic models. The results indicate people may not behave uniformly or predictably rationally as assumed.
The portfolio choice in emergent markets a rational or a behavioral decisionAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that explores the relationship between rational mean-variance portfolio theory and behavioral portfolio theory from an investor's perspective. The study uses cognitive mapping interviews with 30 Tunisian investors to understand how they perceive key concepts from each theory. The cognitive maps are analyzed to identify interactions and "zones of communication" between concepts from the two theories. Preliminary results suggest investors use mean-variance concepts but are also influenced by behavioral biases and emotions. The study aims to provide a more realistic description of how investors make portfolio choices by combining elements of both rational and behavioral approaches.
11.the portfolio choice in emergent markets a rational or a behavioral decisionAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that explores the relationship between rational mean-variance portfolio theory and behavioral portfolio theory from an investor's perspective. The study uses cognitive mapping interviews with 30 Tunisian investors to understand how they perceive key concepts from each theory. The cognitive maps are analyzed to identify interactions between concepts and "zones of communication" between the two theories. Preliminary results suggest investors use mean-variance concepts but are also influenced by behavioral biases and emotions. The study aims to provide a more realistic description of how investors make portfolio choices by combining elements of both rational and behavioral approaches.
The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationa...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
A seminar given to the Judgement and Decision Making Research Group in the Department of Neuroscience, Psychology and Behaviour, University of Leicester kindly asked me to give a seminar on 25 January 2023 on "The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationality". It discusses the challenges to different research methods of dealing with subjective accounts and models a situation where people can be rational but communicate and have incomplete information about both the number of choices and their payoff. The model is based on this paper: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11299-009-0060-7 One interesting result is that, without coercion or mass media, minority groups may be disadvantaged in their decision making by hegemonic discourse.
behavioral finance:theories, issues and challenges Kamaljit Singh
1. The document discusses recent trends in behavioural finance, including nudging policies like prize-linked savings accounts, mental accounting, cognitive biases, framing issues, anchoring, subconscious decision-making, and impact investing.
2. It also covers the risky shift effect, changes in sociological behavior, algorithmic trading, and the relationship between risk tolerance and risk perception.
3. Recent trends in behavioural finance examine how human psychology and social factors influence financial decision-making in areas like risk-taking, framing, memory biases, and subconscious preferences.
UNDERSTANDING DECISION/ GAME THEORY FOR BETTER RISK ASSESSMENT.Kaustav Lahiri
1) Decision theory is concerned with identifying values, uncertainties, and other factors relevant to a given decision in order to determine the optimal decision. It is closely related to game theory.
2) Normative decision theory aims to identify the best decision assuming perfect rationality, while descriptive decision theory describes actual decision-making behaviors under consistent rules.
3) Choices can involve certainty, uncertainty over time, interactions between decision makers, or complex situations. Different representations like extensive form, normal form, and characteristic function form are used to model different types of decisions.
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note Please change the column names.docxaudeleypearl
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note: Please change the column names based on your industry and your selected companies.RATIOS<INDUSTRY><COMPANY #1><COMPANY #2>ANALYSIS (your comments), which company is stronger, better/worse than industry, what results meanProfitability Ratios (%)show calculationshow ending resultshoww Calculationshow resultGross Margin EBITD Margin Operating Margin Pretax Margin Effective Tax Rate Financial StrengthQuick RatioCurrent Ratio LT Debt to Equity Total Debt to Equity Interest Coverage Valuation RatiosP/E Ratio Price to Sales (P/S)Price to Book (P/B)Price to Tangible Book Price to Cash FlowPrice to Free Cash Flow Management Effectiveness (%)Return On Assets Return On Investment Return On Equity DividendsDividend YieldPayout Ratio EfficiencyRevenue/Employee Net Income/Employee Receivable TurnoverInventory TurnoverAsset Turnover SummaryWhat is ratio analysis? Briefly explain in this space, and reference your resources: Referring to your ratio analysis above, in which company would you be willing to invest, and why?
Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas
Heather Rosoff • Jinshu Cui • Richard S. John
Published online: 28 September 2013
� Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
Abstract Cyber security often depends on decisions
made by human operators, who are commonly considered a
major cause of security failures. We conducted 2 behav-
ioral experiments to explore whether and how cyber
security decision-making responses depend on gain–loss
framing and salience of a primed recall prior experience. In
Experiment I, we employed a 2 9 2 factorial design,
manipulating the frame (gain vs. loss) and the presence
versus absence of a prior near-miss experience. Results
suggest that the experience of a near-miss significantly
increased respondents’ endorsement of safer response
options under a gain frame. Overall, female respondents
were more likely to select a risk averse (safe) response
compared with males. Experiment II followed the same
general paradigm, framing all consequences in a loss frame
and manipulating recall to include one of three possible
prior experiences: false alarm, near-miss, or a hit involving
a loss of data. Results indicate that the manipulated prior
hit experience significantly increased the likelihood of
respondents’ endorsement of a safer response relative to
the manipulated prior near-miss experience. Conversely,
the manipulated prior false-alarm experience significantly
decreased respondents’ likelihood of endorsing a safer
response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss
experience. These results also showed a main effect for age
and were moderated by respondent’s income level.
Keywords Cyber security � Framing effect �
Near-miss � Decision making
1 Introduction
Individual users regularly make decisions that affect the
security of their personal devices connected to the internet
and, in turn, to the security of the cybersphere. For
example, th ...
Expected utility theory provides a framework for modeling rational decision making under uncertainty. It was first proposed in the 18th century and suggests that rational investors will make decisions based on both the potential outcomes of an investment and the probabilities of those outcomes occurring. The document outlines several key assumptions of expected utility theory, such as ranking alternatives and preferring dominant investments. It also discusses criteria for investment decisions under the theory, such as maximizing expected return. Finally, it reviews several other economic theories that are based on or related to expected utility theory, such as marginal utility theory, game theory, and subjective expected utility theory.
This document summarizes an honors thesis that examines how varying the scale of financial incentives in economic experiments affects measured risk preferences. The thesis conducted a study using Holt and Laury's lottery choice framework with three treatments that differed in payoff structures and probabilities to induce risk behavior. The study found that increasing the scale of payoffs resulted in significantly more risk-averse behavior. Contrary to other research, demographic factors like gender and risky behaviors from a follow-up survey did not predict risk preferences. Self-financing college did predict more risk-averse choices in two treatments, suggesting income should be controlled for. The results provide evidence that the scale of incentives used is important for eliciting realistic risk behavior in experiments.
This paper analyzes consumer choice and its impact on microeconomic trends. It discusses how the theory of consumer choice shapes demand curves and how wages and interest rates affect consumption. It also reviews asymmetric information and how it influences economic transactions. The paper examines the Condorcet voting paradox and Arrow's impossibility theorem. Finally, it discusses irrational behavior in economics and how it can impact demand curves.
A Review of “Counterfactual thinking and the first instinct fallacy” by Kruge...Richard Thripp
This document summarizes a research article by Kruger, Wirtz, and Miller (2005) that examines the "first instinct fallacy" - the incorrect belief that initial gut feelings or instincts are more likely to be correct than reconsidering one's answer. Through four studies, the researchers found that people overestimate the accuracy of sticking with their first choice and underestimate the benefits of changing answers. They conclude that preferential memory for instances of changing a right answer to a wrong one contributes to beliefs in the effectiveness of first instincts despite evidence against it. Examples like the Monty Hall problem further illustrate how intuition can be misleading.
Behavioural economics attempts to incorporate insights from psychology into economics by studying how real people make decisions rather than assuming perfectly rational behaviour. It observes how people use mental shortcuts and make inconsistent, irrational decisions due to biases, framing effects, and lack of self-control. For example, people irrationally pay more for aspirin when the price is higher. Behavioural economics advocates for public policies and designs that acknowledge human psychology rather than assuming perfect rationality.
A k a d e m i k A r a ç t i r m a l a r D e r g i s i 2 0 1 0 .docxrobert345678
A k a d e m i k A r a ç t i r m a l a r D e r g i s i 2 0 1 0 , S a y i 4 6 , S a y f a l a r 1 - 9
INDIVIDUALS' CHOICES: TRADITIONAL
AND BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
I PERSPECTIVES
Kadir Can YALÇIN'
INTRODUCTION
Traditional finance ignores the psychological and behavioral
dimensions of individuals' choices. Because of this ignorance, behavioral
finance has emerged in order to obtain a better explanation about how
psychological factors affect individuals' behaviors and decisions.
Individuals' choices from the behavioral finance perspective differ
from the traditional finance perspective. According to traditional finance,
human behavior is rational during the decision making process described by the
expected utility theory. That is, individuals always try to maximize their utilities
by setting limits to their feelings and act only by using their minds as super-
calculator, emotionless robots.
On the other hand, according to behavioral finance, this kind of
rationality is hypothetical and, in reality, individuals suffer some cognitive
limitations when they have to make decisions incorporating the prospect theory.
Prospect theory is the descriptive explanation of how people behave and it has
served as an anchor for behavioral finance supporters.
The aim of this paper is to examine the question "are individuals
rational or not" during the decision making process by comparing the traditional
and behavioral finance point of views and will begin with the expected utility
theory. Next, the prospect theory and the mental accounting will be presented.
' EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY I
Uncertainty is present in almost all decisions concerning both social
and business hfe, but financial decisions constitute a special case. Yet, one is
expected to make healthy decisions when faced with uncertainty, because our
decisions will designate how much pleasure and enjoyment will be attained in
life. In economic terms, pleasure and enjoyment are defined as a utiliry. In other
1
Akademik
Araçtirmalar
Dergisi
Individuals' Choices: Traditional and Behavioral Finance Perspectives
words, utility consists of pleasure and prevented pain'. However, it is quite
difficult to measure utility in economical terms.
Daniel Bernoulli^ developed for the first time, an "Expected Utility
Theory" in 1738; subsequently, it was formulated by John von Neumann and
Oscar Morgenstern in 1944\ This model is widely accepted today as a
formulated way of explaining rational human behavior under uncertainty by
using a measurable utility function. The basic logic behind the expected utility
theory is rationality. Kahneman and Smith" described the term rationality as
follows "rationality means that deci.non-maker use available information in a
logical and systematic way, so as to make optimal choices given the
alternatives at hand and the objective to be reached"
The theory always expects rational behaviors from human beings no
matter what the circumstances are. That is, economic actors are ratio.
This document provides an overview of the history and major works in the field of behavioural finance. It discusses early works from the late 19th/early 20th century exploring the psychology of markets. Major developments include prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky in the 1970s, which found people overweight small probabilities and are loss averse. Their work on heuristics and biases also showed how psychology influences judgments. Behavioural concepts like mental accounting and overreaction have since helped explain apparent market inefficiencies. The field continues to incorporate psychological findings to better understand financial decision making.
This document summarizes an experiment by Grether and Plott on preference reversals. In the experiment, subjects were asked to choose between two gambles and then state prices for the gambles. For many subjects, their stated preferences from choices and prices were reversed, violating assumptions of economic theory. Grether and Plott found preference reversals occurred even when addressing economists' concerns about incentives and language. This suggests a fundamental flaw in economic theories assuming perfectly rational choice. Later research found preference reversals reduced but not eliminated by higher stakes, awareness of consequences, or market pressures. Failures of transitivity and procedural invariance appear to explain many preference reversals.
1. The document discusses how decision theory and test-taking behavior research can provide insights into psychometrics and test construction.
2. It analyzes factors like the optimal number of response options, the benefits and drawbacks of guessing, and how the framing of scoring rules like penalties vs bonuses can influence test-taker behavior.
3. The author argues that standard psychometric assumptions do not always reflect how test-takers actually analyze situations and make decisions, and that accounting for behavioral factors could improve test quality.
This chapter introduces key concepts in economics. Microeconomics studies individual decision-making of households and firms, while macroeconomics examines economy-wide phenomena. Economists assume individuals rationally pursue self-interest, responding to incentives. Economics is a science that uses models and data to predict behavior, though some question full rationality. Positive economics describes what is, while normative economics involves value judgments about what should be.
This chapter introduces key concepts in economics. Microeconomics studies individual decision-making of households and firms, while macroeconomics examines economy-wide phenomena. Economists assume individuals rationally pursue self-interest, responding to incentives. Economics is a science that uses models and data to predict behavior, though some question full rationality. Positive economics describes what is, while normative economics involves value judgments about what should be.
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from rational judgment that occur in human decision making. There are over 188 known types of cognitive biases that fall under categories like decision making biases, social biases, and memory errors. Some examples of cognitive biases include anchoring bias, where people rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered; bandwagon effect, where people do something because others are doing it regardless of their own beliefs; and confirmation bias, where people interpret information in a way that confirms their preexisting beliefs. Understanding cognitive biases is important because they influence how people think and make judgments in ways that can lead to irrational decisions.
This document provides background and motivation for a study examining determinants of stock market participation and risky asset allocation among Canadian households. Specifically, it discusses how previous literature has studied factors like age, gender, education level, and others that may influence an individual's willingness to hold stocks. The author develops a simple economic model framing the decision between investing in risky stocks versus less risky assets. The goal is to better understand individual investor behavior and stock market participation based on analysis of a Canadian household survey.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Mais conteúdo relacionado
Semelhante a Behavioural Economics: making a case against rational choice theory.
This study examines whether people truly behave rationally as assumed in many economic models. The author surveys 227 University of San Diego undergraduate students, asking them to complete two games: Prisoner's Dilemma and a Pick-the-Average game. Contrary to the hypotheses, factors like being an economics major or having a higher GPA did not significantly impact rational decision making. While some limitations exist, the study questions the validity of Rational Choice Theory and assumptions of rational behavior in economic models. The results indicate people may not behave uniformly or predictably rationally as assumed.
The portfolio choice in emergent markets a rational or a behavioral decisionAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that explores the relationship between rational mean-variance portfolio theory and behavioral portfolio theory from an investor's perspective. The study uses cognitive mapping interviews with 30 Tunisian investors to understand how they perceive key concepts from each theory. The cognitive maps are analyzed to identify interactions and "zones of communication" between concepts from the two theories. Preliminary results suggest investors use mean-variance concepts but are also influenced by behavioral biases and emotions. The study aims to provide a more realistic description of how investors make portfolio choices by combining elements of both rational and behavioral approaches.
11.the portfolio choice in emergent markets a rational or a behavioral decisionAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that explores the relationship between rational mean-variance portfolio theory and behavioral portfolio theory from an investor's perspective. The study uses cognitive mapping interviews with 30 Tunisian investors to understand how they perceive key concepts from each theory. The cognitive maps are analyzed to identify interactions between concepts and "zones of communication" between the two theories. Preliminary results suggest investors use mean-variance concepts but are also influenced by behavioral biases and emotions. The study aims to provide a more realistic description of how investors make portfolio choices by combining elements of both rational and behavioral approaches.
The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationa...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
A seminar given to the Judgement and Decision Making Research Group in the Department of Neuroscience, Psychology and Behaviour, University of Leicester kindly asked me to give a seminar on 25 January 2023 on "The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationality". It discusses the challenges to different research methods of dealing with subjective accounts and models a situation where people can be rational but communicate and have incomplete information about both the number of choices and their payoff. The model is based on this paper: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11299-009-0060-7 One interesting result is that, without coercion or mass media, minority groups may be disadvantaged in their decision making by hegemonic discourse.
behavioral finance:theories, issues and challenges Kamaljit Singh
1. The document discusses recent trends in behavioural finance, including nudging policies like prize-linked savings accounts, mental accounting, cognitive biases, framing issues, anchoring, subconscious decision-making, and impact investing.
2. It also covers the risky shift effect, changes in sociological behavior, algorithmic trading, and the relationship between risk tolerance and risk perception.
3. Recent trends in behavioural finance examine how human psychology and social factors influence financial decision-making in areas like risk-taking, framing, memory biases, and subconscious preferences.
UNDERSTANDING DECISION/ GAME THEORY FOR BETTER RISK ASSESSMENT.Kaustav Lahiri
1) Decision theory is concerned with identifying values, uncertainties, and other factors relevant to a given decision in order to determine the optimal decision. It is closely related to game theory.
2) Normative decision theory aims to identify the best decision assuming perfect rationality, while descriptive decision theory describes actual decision-making behaviors under consistent rules.
3) Choices can involve certainty, uncertainty over time, interactions between decision makers, or complex situations. Different representations like extensive form, normal form, and characteristic function form are used to model different types of decisions.
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note Please change the column names.docxaudeleypearl
RATIO ANALYSIS RATIO ANALYSIS Note: Please change the column names based on your industry and your selected companies.RATIOS<INDUSTRY><COMPANY #1><COMPANY #2>ANALYSIS (your comments), which company is stronger, better/worse than industry, what results meanProfitability Ratios (%)show calculationshow ending resultshoww Calculationshow resultGross Margin EBITD Margin Operating Margin Pretax Margin Effective Tax Rate Financial StrengthQuick RatioCurrent Ratio LT Debt to Equity Total Debt to Equity Interest Coverage Valuation RatiosP/E Ratio Price to Sales (P/S)Price to Book (P/B)Price to Tangible Book Price to Cash FlowPrice to Free Cash Flow Management Effectiveness (%)Return On Assets Return On Investment Return On Equity DividendsDividend YieldPayout Ratio EfficiencyRevenue/Employee Net Income/Employee Receivable TurnoverInventory TurnoverAsset Turnover SummaryWhat is ratio analysis? Briefly explain in this space, and reference your resources: Referring to your ratio analysis above, in which company would you be willing to invest, and why?
Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas
Heather Rosoff • Jinshu Cui • Richard S. John
Published online: 28 September 2013
� Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
Abstract Cyber security often depends on decisions
made by human operators, who are commonly considered a
major cause of security failures. We conducted 2 behav-
ioral experiments to explore whether and how cyber
security decision-making responses depend on gain–loss
framing and salience of a primed recall prior experience. In
Experiment I, we employed a 2 9 2 factorial design,
manipulating the frame (gain vs. loss) and the presence
versus absence of a prior near-miss experience. Results
suggest that the experience of a near-miss significantly
increased respondents’ endorsement of safer response
options under a gain frame. Overall, female respondents
were more likely to select a risk averse (safe) response
compared with males. Experiment II followed the same
general paradigm, framing all consequences in a loss frame
and manipulating recall to include one of three possible
prior experiences: false alarm, near-miss, or a hit involving
a loss of data. Results indicate that the manipulated prior
hit experience significantly increased the likelihood of
respondents’ endorsement of a safer response relative to
the manipulated prior near-miss experience. Conversely,
the manipulated prior false-alarm experience significantly
decreased respondents’ likelihood of endorsing a safer
response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss
experience. These results also showed a main effect for age
and were moderated by respondent’s income level.
Keywords Cyber security � Framing effect �
Near-miss � Decision making
1 Introduction
Individual users regularly make decisions that affect the
security of their personal devices connected to the internet
and, in turn, to the security of the cybersphere. For
example, th ...
Expected utility theory provides a framework for modeling rational decision making under uncertainty. It was first proposed in the 18th century and suggests that rational investors will make decisions based on both the potential outcomes of an investment and the probabilities of those outcomes occurring. The document outlines several key assumptions of expected utility theory, such as ranking alternatives and preferring dominant investments. It also discusses criteria for investment decisions under the theory, such as maximizing expected return. Finally, it reviews several other economic theories that are based on or related to expected utility theory, such as marginal utility theory, game theory, and subjective expected utility theory.
This document summarizes an honors thesis that examines how varying the scale of financial incentives in economic experiments affects measured risk preferences. The thesis conducted a study using Holt and Laury's lottery choice framework with three treatments that differed in payoff structures and probabilities to induce risk behavior. The study found that increasing the scale of payoffs resulted in significantly more risk-averse behavior. Contrary to other research, demographic factors like gender and risky behaviors from a follow-up survey did not predict risk preferences. Self-financing college did predict more risk-averse choices in two treatments, suggesting income should be controlled for. The results provide evidence that the scale of incentives used is important for eliciting realistic risk behavior in experiments.
This paper analyzes consumer choice and its impact on microeconomic trends. It discusses how the theory of consumer choice shapes demand curves and how wages and interest rates affect consumption. It also reviews asymmetric information and how it influences economic transactions. The paper examines the Condorcet voting paradox and Arrow's impossibility theorem. Finally, it discusses irrational behavior in economics and how it can impact demand curves.
A Review of “Counterfactual thinking and the first instinct fallacy” by Kruge...Richard Thripp
This document summarizes a research article by Kruger, Wirtz, and Miller (2005) that examines the "first instinct fallacy" - the incorrect belief that initial gut feelings or instincts are more likely to be correct than reconsidering one's answer. Through four studies, the researchers found that people overestimate the accuracy of sticking with their first choice and underestimate the benefits of changing answers. They conclude that preferential memory for instances of changing a right answer to a wrong one contributes to beliefs in the effectiveness of first instincts despite evidence against it. Examples like the Monty Hall problem further illustrate how intuition can be misleading.
Behavioural economics attempts to incorporate insights from psychology into economics by studying how real people make decisions rather than assuming perfectly rational behaviour. It observes how people use mental shortcuts and make inconsistent, irrational decisions due to biases, framing effects, and lack of self-control. For example, people irrationally pay more for aspirin when the price is higher. Behavioural economics advocates for public policies and designs that acknowledge human psychology rather than assuming perfect rationality.
A k a d e m i k A r a ç t i r m a l a r D e r g i s i 2 0 1 0 .docxrobert345678
A k a d e m i k A r a ç t i r m a l a r D e r g i s i 2 0 1 0 , S a y i 4 6 , S a y f a l a r 1 - 9
INDIVIDUALS' CHOICES: TRADITIONAL
AND BEHAVIORAL FINANCE
I PERSPECTIVES
Kadir Can YALÇIN'
INTRODUCTION
Traditional finance ignores the psychological and behavioral
dimensions of individuals' choices. Because of this ignorance, behavioral
finance has emerged in order to obtain a better explanation about how
psychological factors affect individuals' behaviors and decisions.
Individuals' choices from the behavioral finance perspective differ
from the traditional finance perspective. According to traditional finance,
human behavior is rational during the decision making process described by the
expected utility theory. That is, individuals always try to maximize their utilities
by setting limits to their feelings and act only by using their minds as super-
calculator, emotionless robots.
On the other hand, according to behavioral finance, this kind of
rationality is hypothetical and, in reality, individuals suffer some cognitive
limitations when they have to make decisions incorporating the prospect theory.
Prospect theory is the descriptive explanation of how people behave and it has
served as an anchor for behavioral finance supporters.
The aim of this paper is to examine the question "are individuals
rational or not" during the decision making process by comparing the traditional
and behavioral finance point of views and will begin with the expected utility
theory. Next, the prospect theory and the mental accounting will be presented.
' EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY I
Uncertainty is present in almost all decisions concerning both social
and business hfe, but financial decisions constitute a special case. Yet, one is
expected to make healthy decisions when faced with uncertainty, because our
decisions will designate how much pleasure and enjoyment will be attained in
life. In economic terms, pleasure and enjoyment are defined as a utiliry. In other
1
Akademik
Araçtirmalar
Dergisi
Individuals' Choices: Traditional and Behavioral Finance Perspectives
words, utility consists of pleasure and prevented pain'. However, it is quite
difficult to measure utility in economical terms.
Daniel Bernoulli^ developed for the first time, an "Expected Utility
Theory" in 1738; subsequently, it was formulated by John von Neumann and
Oscar Morgenstern in 1944\ This model is widely accepted today as a
formulated way of explaining rational human behavior under uncertainty by
using a measurable utility function. The basic logic behind the expected utility
theory is rationality. Kahneman and Smith" described the term rationality as
follows "rationality means that deci.non-maker use available information in a
logical and systematic way, so as to make optimal choices given the
alternatives at hand and the objective to be reached"
The theory always expects rational behaviors from human beings no
matter what the circumstances are. That is, economic actors are ratio.
This document provides an overview of the history and major works in the field of behavioural finance. It discusses early works from the late 19th/early 20th century exploring the psychology of markets. Major developments include prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky in the 1970s, which found people overweight small probabilities and are loss averse. Their work on heuristics and biases also showed how psychology influences judgments. Behavioural concepts like mental accounting and overreaction have since helped explain apparent market inefficiencies. The field continues to incorporate psychological findings to better understand financial decision making.
This document summarizes an experiment by Grether and Plott on preference reversals. In the experiment, subjects were asked to choose between two gambles and then state prices for the gambles. For many subjects, their stated preferences from choices and prices were reversed, violating assumptions of economic theory. Grether and Plott found preference reversals occurred even when addressing economists' concerns about incentives and language. This suggests a fundamental flaw in economic theories assuming perfectly rational choice. Later research found preference reversals reduced but not eliminated by higher stakes, awareness of consequences, or market pressures. Failures of transitivity and procedural invariance appear to explain many preference reversals.
1. The document discusses how decision theory and test-taking behavior research can provide insights into psychometrics and test construction.
2. It analyzes factors like the optimal number of response options, the benefits and drawbacks of guessing, and how the framing of scoring rules like penalties vs bonuses can influence test-taker behavior.
3. The author argues that standard psychometric assumptions do not always reflect how test-takers actually analyze situations and make decisions, and that accounting for behavioral factors could improve test quality.
This chapter introduces key concepts in economics. Microeconomics studies individual decision-making of households and firms, while macroeconomics examines economy-wide phenomena. Economists assume individuals rationally pursue self-interest, responding to incentives. Economics is a science that uses models and data to predict behavior, though some question full rationality. Positive economics describes what is, while normative economics involves value judgments about what should be.
This chapter introduces key concepts in economics. Microeconomics studies individual decision-making of households and firms, while macroeconomics examines economy-wide phenomena. Economists assume individuals rationally pursue self-interest, responding to incentives. Economics is a science that uses models and data to predict behavior, though some question full rationality. Positive economics describes what is, while normative economics involves value judgments about what should be.
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from rational judgment that occur in human decision making. There are over 188 known types of cognitive biases that fall under categories like decision making biases, social biases, and memory errors. Some examples of cognitive biases include anchoring bias, where people rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered; bandwagon effect, where people do something because others are doing it regardless of their own beliefs; and confirmation bias, where people interpret information in a way that confirms their preexisting beliefs. Understanding cognitive biases is important because they influence how people think and make judgments in ways that can lead to irrational decisions.
This document provides background and motivation for a study examining determinants of stock market participation and risky asset allocation among Canadian households. Specifically, it discusses how previous literature has studied factors like age, gender, education level, and others that may influence an individual's willingness to hold stocks. The author develops a simple economic model framing the decision between investing in risky stocks versus less risky assets. The goal is to better understand individual investor behavior and stock market participation based on analysis of a Canadian household survey.
Semelhante a Behavioural Economics: making a case against rational choice theory. (20)
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Enhancing Asset Quality: Strategies for Financial Institutionsshruti1menon2
Ensuring robust asset quality is not just a mere aspect but a critical cornerstone for the stability and success of financial institutions worldwide. It serves as the bedrock upon which profitability is built and investor confidence is sustained. Therefore, in this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive exploration of strategies that can aid financial institutions in achieving and maintaining superior asset quality.
Every business, big or small, deals with outgoing payments. Whether it’s to suppliers for inventory, to employees for salaries, or to vendors for services rendered, keeping track of these expenses is crucial. This is where payment vouchers come in – the unsung heroes of the accounting world.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
2. Behavioural vs Classical Economics
Classical Economics
In general economists design their models assuming people are
perfectly rational and predictable: homo economicus attempt to
maximise their utility in all instances (rational choice theory).
Behavioural Economics
Behavioural economists do not subscribe to rational choice
theory, they believe individuals make irrational decisions and
explore dynamics thereof.
Behavioural Ec
3. Topics that will be covered:
Anchoring
Herd Behaviour
Prospect Theory
Regret Theory
4. Anchoring
•The use of irrelevant
information as a reference
for evaluating or
estimating some unknown
value or information.
•Investors with an
anchoring bias tend to
hold investments to an
anchor (normally original
price) rather than being
guided by fundamentals.
(Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013)
12. Framing of Prospects
Scenario 1
Given £1,000
Choice A: 50% chance of gaining £1,000
Choice B: 100% chance of gaining £500
Scenario 2
Given £2,000
Choice A: 50% chance of losing £1,000
Choice B: 100% chance of losing £500
• “In the first [scenario], a large majority of respondents preferred the sure thing” (Kahneman, 2013).
• “In the second [scenario], a large majority preferred the gamble” (Kahneman, 2013).
13. Prospect Theory
Helps to explain risk appetite
Loses and gains are valued differently
Investors are more likely to realise gains
than losses.
Equivalent choice can be presented in
differing context of gain or loss.
(Phung, 2007)
16. Herd Behaviour
The tendency for individuals to mimic the actions (rational or irrational) of a larger
group
“It's unlikely that such a large group could be wrong!”
“They must have an information advantage!”
“I don’t want to be a victim of information asymmetry!”
18. Regret Theory
Fearing the consequences of both errors of omission (e.g., not
buying the right [optimal] investment property) and
commission (e.g., buying the wrong [suboptimal] investment
property)
Individual evaluates his or her expected reactions to a future
event or situation
Regret is the emotion caused by comparing a given outcome,
or state of events, with the state of a foregone choice.
19. The Bat and Ball Problem
A bat and ball together cost £1.10, the bat costs £1 more than
the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
20. Bat and Ball Problem Cont.
The ball costs 5 pence.
Bat (£1.05) – Ball (£0.05) = Difference of £1
More than 50% of students at Harvard, MIT, and Princeton
gave the intuitive—incorrect—answer. At less selective
universities, the rate of demonstrable failure to check was in
excess of 80% (Kahneman, 2013).
21. Reducing Exposure
Rationality is an adaptive
tool.
People require an adaptive
toolbox: different domains of
thought require different
specialized cognitive
mechanisms.
Gerd Gigerenzer (Alchetron, n.d.)
23. Reference List
Alchetron (n.d.). Gerd Gigerenzer. [image] Available at: http://tedxzurich.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/gerd_gigerenzer_slider-
770x425.jpg [Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
Farrar, Straus and Giroux (2013). Anchoring. [image] Available at: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/HefjkqKCVpo/maxresdefault.jpg [Accessed
21 Oct 2017].
Kahneman, D. (2013). Thinking, fast and slow. 1st ed. London: Penguin, pp.1-281.
Mussweiler, T. and Englich, B. (2005). Subliminal anchoring: Judgmental consequences and underlying mechanisms. [online] Science
Direct, pp.141-149. Available at: https://www.hf.uni-koeln.de/data/dppsenglich/File/PDFSStudien/obhdp98.pdf [Accessed 21 Oct
2017].
Natural Money (2014). Weighting Function. [image] Available at: http://www.naturalmoney.org/pic/fm_weighting_function.jpg
[Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
Phung, A. (2007). Value Function. [image] Available at: http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articles/site/JoyLoss.gif [Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
SMBC Comics (2017). Eat the Appple. [image] Available at: http://smbc-comics.com/comic/eat-the-apple [Accessed 21 Oct 2017].
Wuerker, M. (2004). Lemming Logic. [image] Available at: http://www.contributors.ro/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/lemingi.jpg
[Accessed 21 Oct 2017].