Slides I used for a lecture where I analyzed the 2004 General Elections. The intention of the lecture was to illustrate the importance of coalitions.

1. Importance of Coalitions
Analyzing the 2004 Elections
Karthik Shashidhar

2. WHY DID THE NDA LOSE 2004?

3. BJP and Congress - Votes

4. BJP and Congress – vote shares

5. BJP and Congress: Contests

6. BJP and congress: Effective vote shares

7. Total vote share of Congress and BJP

8. Coalitions: 1998 vs 1999
State Party1 Party2 Seat Split 1998 Seat
Split
Coalition
Seats 1999
Coalition
Seats 1998
Andhra Pradesh BJP TDP 8-34 38-35 36 16
Bihar BJP JDU 29-23 32-35-21 41 31
Bihar Congress RJD 16-36 21-38 11 22
Karnataka BJP JDU 19-9 18-10 10 16
Maharashtra BJP Shivsena 26-22 25-22 28 10
Orissa BJP BJD 9-12 9-12 19 16
Punjab BJP SAD 3-9 4-8 3 11
Tamil Nadu BJP DMK/PM
K/MDMK
6-19-7-5 5-17-5-5 25 15
Tamil Nadu Congress AIADMK 11-14 35-22 12 18
West Bengal BJP Trinamool 13-28 14-29 10 8
Total (BJP+) 172 136
Total (Cong+) 23 24

9. What happened in 2004?
• BJP ditched DMK in Tamil Nadu and switched
to AIADMK
– Assuming the usual Tamil inversion would help
• Simultaneous assembly and parliamentary
elections in Andhra Pradesh
– TDP faced a two-term anti-incumbency
• Congress tied up with RJD and LJP in Bihar.
Addition of LJP helped coalition sweep

10. What happened in 2004? (2/2)
• Congress tied up with JMM in new Jharkhand
• Congress-NCP alliance for the first time in
Maharashtra
• Breakdown of BJP in Uttar Pradesh – exit of
Kalyan Singh, etc.
– Strengthening of BSP in Uttar Pradesh
• Breakdown of NDA in West Bengal

12. Final seat tally
BJP 182 BJP 182 INC 144 INC 206
INC 141 INC 114 BJP 138 BJP 116
CPI M 32 CPI M 33 CPI M 43 SP 23
SP 20 TDP 29 SP 36 BSP 21
AIADMK 18 SP 26 RJD 24 JDU 20
RJD 17 JDU 21 BSP 19 AITC 19
SAP 12 SHS 15 DMK 16 DMK 18
TDP 12 BSP 14 SHS 12 CPI M 16
BJD 9 DMK 12 BJD 11 BJD 14
CPI 9 AIADMK 10 CPI 10 SHS 11
SAD 8 BJD 10 NCP 9 AIADMK 9
WBTC 7 AITC 8 JDU 8 IND 9
DMK 6 NCP 8 SAD 8 NCP 9
IND 6 RJD 7 PMK 6 TDP 6
JD 6 IND 6 IND 5 RLD 5
SHS 6 INLD 5 JMM 5 CPI 4
BSP 5 PMK 5 TDP 5 RJD 4
RSP 5 CPI 4 TRS 5 SAD 4
HLDR 4 JKN 4 LJNSP 4 JDS 3
PMK 4 MDMK 4 MDMK 4 JKN 3
1998 1999 2004 2009

13. Final Seat Tally - 2
1998 1999 2004 2009
BJP+ 258 294 170 152
Congress+ 141 122 225 262
Others 144 127 148 129

14. Why did NDA lose 2004?
• Congress, which was averse to alliances in
1999, formed some for 2004
• Consolidation of pro-Congress votes in 2004
hurt BJP badly
• The effect of “India Shining” was marginal

15. Number of contests
State
Election Year
1998 1999 2004 2009
Andhra Pradesh 3 2 2 3
Assam 3 3 3 3
Bihar 3 2 3 4
Gujarat 3 2 2 2
Haryana 3 2 4 3
Karnataka 3 3 3 3
Kerala 2 2 3 2
Madhya Pradesh 2 2 3 2
Maharashtra 2 3 2 3
Orissa 2 2 2 3
Punjab 2 2 3 2
Rajasthan 2 2 2 2
Tamil Nadu 2 2 2 3
Uttar Pradesh 3 4 4 4
West Bengal 3 3 2 2

16. Votes and seats share