“The dilemma for achieving sustainable net zero at the energy-environment nexus” – Dr Abhishek Tiwary, De Montfort University, presenting at the Net Zero Conference 2022, ‘Research Journeys in/to Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK’ (on Friday 24th June 2022 at De Montfort University)

1. Jun 24, 2022
The dilemma for achieving sustainable
net zero at the energy-environment
nexus
Dr. Abhishek Tiwary,
Institute of Energy & Sustainable Development
De Montfort University, Leicester, UK
Net Zero Conference 2022

2. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Presentation outline
• Net-zero at the energy-environment nexus
• Clean technologies scoped – 2030 horizons
• Case study – data preparation and modelling
• Trends and Future directions

3. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Net-zero dilemmas
• Much of climate change agenda has been driven by carbon
abatement and there is greater need for co-managing carbon
and pollution through local sustainability initiatives (Tiwary et al.,
Journal of Environmental Planning and Management , 2014)
• While the UK has the clear target of net-zero GHGs by 2050
to address climate change, there is, so far, no equivalent
pathway of air pollutant emission targets through to 2050
• There are trade-offs between economic and environmental
performance of renewable energy system in terms of
affordability and holistic sustainability (Apichonnabutr and Tiwary,
Applied Energy, 2018)
• Global changes in fossil energy supply for net-zero can alter
the balance on materials used as solvents in everyday
personal care products

4. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Implications for the energy-environment nexus
• UK electricity demand would nearly double in 2050 (610TWh
compared to 300TWh in 2019) (BEIS, 2020 Energy Trends Report)
• ‘Combustion-related capacity’ to meet this demand assumes
the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) abatement
technologies at power plants
 Up to 25% more energy per unit electricity produced will be required
for CO2 capture, compression, transport and storage; emissions
from the additional fuel combustion at the CCS facility + indirect
emissions from CCS solvent supply and treatment chains
• Renewable Energy infrastructure lifespan is relatively shorter,
requiring more rapid waste management
 e.g. around 50,000 tonnes of end-of-life wind turbine blades are
estimated to be handled in Europe in 2022; By 2050, this is
expected to exceed 43M tonnes globally (Waste Management, 2017,
62:229)

5. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Possible new pollutants from net-zero technologies
• Adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) presents a
substantial chemical engineering challenge for its use in a
closed loop cycle and process scale-up
 e.g. use of stripping solvent to capture CO2 such as nitrosamines, a
potential carcinogens (Energy Environ. Sci., 2018, 11:1062-1176)
• New non-fossil chemical solvents, sourced from alternative
natural raw materials (e.g. limonene) can impact on
emissions, chemical reactivity and production of secondary
pollutants (The Royal Society Report, Dec 2021)
• Use of intermediary fuels and technologies over the early
stages of the progress to net-zero may be delivered with
transitional technologies for a limited period that have higher
emitting sources
 e.g. widespread zero emission district heating and power systems
such as urban biomass combustion in combined heat and power
(CHP) applications

6. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Expected effects of net-zero policies
Source: Effects of net-zero policies and climate change on air quality, The Royal Society Nov 2021

7. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Net-zero planning dynamics
• “2050 vision for green cities” – cities across the world
have different planning dynamics and this will play key role in
shaping 2050 net zero outcomes
I. Newcastle community biomass boilers
311 primary schools 52 secondary schools

8. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
• “2050 vision for green cities” – cities in fast growing
nations may have very different planning dynamics
II. Urbanisation trends in Greater Delhi
Delhi, 1997 Delhi, 2008
(Mohan et al., 2011)
Net-zero planning dynamics

9. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Carbon/Climate neutral to Net zero –
concept realisation
• EU to become the first climate neutral continent by 2050
(EU Green Deal, 2019)
• Decarbonise energy system to net-zero greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 (EC’s climate change strategy, 2020)
• Greener infrastructures deemed essential for climate change
adaptations, catering to the rapidly increasing urban demands
and sustainable growth - creating healthy, liveable cities
• Greening is multifaceted
– built form
– open space (trees, green space)
– goods/services (energy, electric/ fuel cell vehicles)

10. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Possibilities for green interventions
Greening option
Higher N2O, NH3,
bVOCs → ozone and
aerosol formation, GWP
Enhanced greening of
urban built space and
open spaces/ parklands
Lower air temperature
→ less bVOC → less
aerosol formation
Lower PM10, NOx
(Pollutant dry deposition)
Higher NOx, SO2, HCl
on urban/rural fringes#
→ aerosol formation
Uptake of greener
transport (Electric / Fuel
Cell vehicles)
Lower NOx, CO, NH3,
CO2 in cities
Higher NOx, N2O, CO,
PM, CH4 → ozone and
aerosol formation, GWP
Installation of biomass
boilers and co firing
locally sources bio fuels
in power stations
Lower CO2, renewable
energy
Negative Positive
2030 horizons
# assuming combustion-based electricity generation from biofuels and hydrogen
production from fossil fuels

11. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Case study scope
• Aims to assess the systems scale interactions of
anthropogenic and biogenic emissions from plausible
greening initiatives in three strands – energy, mobility,
ecosystem
• Considers two future scenarios for air quality from greening
– Baseline_2030: low NOx, low bVOC
– Aggressive_2030: ultra low NOx, high bVOC
Anthropogenic Biogenic
– Road transport: penetration of
low-emitting vehicles
– Energy: Biomass co-firing power
plants; District heating boilers
- Vegetation:
Grassland/ woodland/ mixed
forest mosaic
(bVOC inactive/ bVOC active)

12. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Case study description
• Site: City region of North-East England selected
Newcastle city centre

13. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Case study description
• Greenspace cover: Modified LCM2007 land cover data,
reflecting projected greenspace cover for North-East region
based on the energy cropping feasibility report (DEFRA, 2009)
– SRC willow (Salix viminalis x ) (inner city and parklands)
– Switchgrass (Miscanthus giganteus) (idle/marginal arable land)

14. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Case study description
• Baseline transport and energy emissions: Used reported
Emissions Projections, including penetration of Electric
Vehicles and biofuel use (BEIS, 2021)
• Additional sources: Stack emissions from operating and
potential biomass power stations; Lorry transport of biofuels
NOx (kg yr-1 ) SO2 (kg yr-1 )

15. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Results – Baseline
(a) (b) (c)
NOx (tN yr-1) SO2 (tS yr-1) NH3 (tN yr-1)

16. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Results – Aggressive
(a) (b) (c)
SO2 (tS yr-1)
NOx (tN yr-1) NH3 (tN yr-1)

17. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Results – UK maps
I. Baseline_2030 II. Aggressive_2030
Ozone at 2pm

18. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Anticipated policy impacts
Delivering a
net-zero
greenhouse
gas budget
compared to
business as
usual.
(based on
expert
elicitations)
Source: Effects of net-zero policies and climate change on air quality, The Royal Society Nov 2021

19. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
Conclusions & Future directions
• Integrating EV and Renewable energy offers a
common vector for co-managing carbon and air
quality through local sustainability initiatives
• As electricity generation from renewables and
transport electrification reduces NOx emissions,
changes will occur to the O3 production
• The potential impact is described in large part only
qualitatively since the future trajectories and
implementation intensities are very uncertain
• The technologies to deliver net-zero are yet to be
implemented at scale and proven to be cost-
effective

20. Net Zero: Current and Future Research Leaders in the Midlands, UK” conference, 24 Jun 2022
THANKS
Dr Abhishek Tiwary
Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development
De Montfort University, UK
abhishek.tiwary@dmu.ac.uk