This keynote paper discusses strategies for stabilizing food prices in Bangladesh. It begins by providing context on food security and the components of a balanced diet. It then examines trends in foodgrain and commodity production, noting impressive growth in rice but stagnation in other crops. Challenges exacerbating food price volatility are explored, including population growth, poverty, and environmental factors. Unlocking potentials for price stabilization is discussed, emphasizing self-sufficiency through increased productivity, research, protecting agricultural land, and diversifying food consumption patterns. The conclusion stresses the importance of enhancing investment in agriculture and maintaining adequate public food stocks to curb market manipulation and ensure affordability.

1. Key Note Paper
Food Prices
From Crisis to Stability
Prof. Zahurul Karim Ph D
Fellow of the Bangladesh Academy of Sciences & Academy of Sciences for the
Developing World
Chairman,CASEED
CARE’S Presentation
August 4 2012

2. Introduction
Rice alone is not the food.
Food is: balanced proportions of carbohydrate,
fat, protein, vitamin and nutrients & minerals
Food security encompasses
availability
access
utilization

3. Food Production in Bangladesh
Impressive achievement on
foodgrain production
Fig 1:Trend of Foodgrain Production
Thousand MT
35000 2500
30000
2000 Foodgrain
25000 Wheat
Thousand MT
1500
20000
15000
1000
10000
500
5000
0 0
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
-9
-9
-9
-9
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
95
96
97
98
99
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
09
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

4. Foodgrain production in 2009/10 and
2010-11

5. Growth of non-rice food commodities
Production of non-rice crops
either negative or stagnating
Food Items Percent/Year (1971-2007)
Wheat -2.9
Pulses 0.3
Oil crops 2.3
Potatoes 3.0
Vegetables 1.5
Sugar -1.2
Fish 2.5
Meat 2.3
Milk 2.3
Egg 4.0

6. Trends in vegetable production

7. Growth of Livestock Products

8. Growth of Fisheries
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
Inland open w ater (capture)
Inland open w ater (culture)
MT
1,500,000
Marine
Total
1,000,000
500,000
0
20 07
19 99
20 04
20 20
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 05
20 -06
8
-0
6-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
98
99
00
02
03
04
05
07
01
00
19

9. Food Crisis
•Food crisis is always attributed by food price hike.
•Food crisis has gripped the world at different
times of civilizations because of multiple threats
or combination of events that
include catastrophic floods, disastrous
environmental hazards, war and riots and market
failure.
In 20th century during
Extreme food crisis hunger
drove people to
cannibalism. The poor ate
cats, dogs, dead cattle and
dropping of birds, etc.

10. Food price
•When supply could not meet the demand it
causes market failure leading to rise in food price.
•Food pricing is a complex process linked to chain
of production, processing, stocks, transportation
and marketing systems.

11. 50-years trend in global food price
Crisis during early 1970s
Policies and actions of industrialized countries
often induce price hike and food crisis
in the impoverished nations

12. Current Global Food Crisis
Oil oligarchy is the manipulator

13. Causes of volatility
•Productivity decline and falling R&D
•Population growth
•Strong growth in demand specially from China
and India
•Rising Oil prices
•Land use change for Biofuel production
•Climate change and environmental vulnerabilities
•Declining stocks and reserves
•Trade shocks: export restrictions, import surges

14. Recent price volatility in Bangladesh
(1966=100)
250
Consumer price index
Food prices
200
All prices
150
100
1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009-
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

15. Trend in rice prices in Bangladesh
4,500.00
4,000.00
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00 Rice Medium
2,000.00 Rice Coarse
1,500.00 Rice Fine
1,000.00
500.00
-
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
10
01
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg

16. Trend in the prices of pulses and spices in Bangladesh
14,000.00
12,000.00
10,000.00
8,000.00 Lentil (Masure)
Onion
6,000.00
Chilly(Dry)
4,000.00
2,000.00
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg

17. Trend in fish prices in Bangladesh
25,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
Carp
Telapia
10,000.00
Pangash
5,000.00
-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg

18. Trend in potato, Brinjal and soybean oil prices in Bangladesh
12,000.00
10,000.00
8,000.00
Potato
6,000.00
Brinjal
4,000.00 Soybean Oil
2,000.00
-
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: DAM-Price in the figure is BDT per 100 kg or lit.

19. Challenges Aggravating Price Hike
in Bangladesh
•Population growth
•Poverty
•Wide yield gap
•Inadequate coverage of animal health service
•Land related constraints
•Scarcity of quality water for irrigation
•Environmental vulnerability and climate change
•Management of public water bodies and restoration of
habitat
•Improving the productivity of brackish water shrimp
•Stock assessment of marine fisheries

20. Challenges Aggravating Price Hike……contd.
•Availability of quality seed
•Feeds and fodder
•Declining efficiency of fertilizer plants and lack
of initiative on establishing new one
•Food safety, quality and standards
•Weak national mainstream extension
approach
•Degradation of forest resources in protected
areas
•Low productivity of forestry

21. Increasing mouth to feed
2.5 million every year

22. People in poverty
250
40% is poor Total
and 25% is 200
ultra-poor or
extreme poor. 150
Population (million)
Urban
Rural
100
Women
and 50
children
suffer 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
the Population projection for Bangladesh
most.

23. Framing Strategy
Strategy for food price stabilization
is in three Es
•Ecology
•Economics
•Equity

24. Unlocking Potentials for Stabilizing Food Price
• Govt. commitment, vision & mindset.
• Food security is key to price stabilization
• Population stabilization through women’s
empowerment
• Major breakthrough in R&D
• Targeted programs for the ultra poor workforce
• Save our agriculture land
• Post-harvest loss management
• Public stock of foodgrain
• Evolving climate resilient agriculture

25. Unlocking Potentials for Stabilizing Food Price
Our food bowl!
•People in developing countries eat roughly 400
lbs of grain per capita annually mostly in the form
of bread or gruel, but an American consumes 5 to
6 times more in the form of grain-fed beef, pork
and chicken.
•Food diversification in Bangladesh is a MUST.
Change food composition in the bowl

26. Changed meal composition in Japan and
China

27. Conclusion
Import of food is import of poverty.
Nation should harness all resources for enhancing
productivity, saving ecology.
Exodus of scientists must be reversed, bringing
them back by creating enabling environment.
Biofuel production in the land suitable for crops
should be abandoned.
Investment in agriculture must be enhanced.
Govt. DPs, Private sector all should urgently fill up
the investment gap identified in CIP.

28. Conclusion
Satisfactory public stock must be maintained
& enhanced Stock capacity up to 2 MT.
Food should not be left out at the hands of
market-syndicates.
State interventions in terms of incentive
support, public procurement, targeted program
for the poor and vigilance against market
distortions should be the important task of the
government.

29. e
o m
rc
v e
O
a ll
S h
e
W