1. Moving Towards
Liquid Phase Industry
Suvit Maesincee
Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
September 20, 2009 Dr. Suvit
Maesincee
Digitally signed by Dr. Suvit Maesincee
DN: cn=Dr. Suvit Maesincee, c=TH,
email=msuvit@gmail.com
Reason: I am the author of this document
Date: 2010.02.28 18:54:39 +07'00'

2. Agenda
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
• Industry In Transition
• Building New Industry Portfolio
for Sustainable Competitiveness

3. Agenda
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
• Industry In Transition
• Building New Industry Portfolio
for Sustainable Competitiveness

4. Globalization
New Markets Climate
Change
New
Regulations Environment &
Natural Resources
New
Competitors Security Natural
Concerns Disasters
New Commodity
Partnerships Prices
New Customer Disruptive
Expectations Technology
New Business Political
Models Unrests

5. Changing State of Nature
Nation 1 Nation 2 Nation 3
Public
Private
People
Solid Modernity Liquid Modernity
• Connectivity
• Interactivity
• Mobility
• Virtuality

6. Characteristics of Liquid Phase Modernity
Open
Multiplicity
Local
Overlapping
Self
Reflexivity

7. The New Politics of Space & Time
Spatial
Time in Space
• Dis-embedding /
Re-embedding
• The World in Pieces
Temporal
Space in Time
• Temporariness
• Instantaneity
• Delay Gratification

8. Consequences
Hyperconsumption
Nanosecond Culture
Hypermodernity
Culture of Immediacy
Hypercompetition

9. Global Forces & Trends
Globalization
Democratization of of Risks
Power & Wealth
The End of
the Nation-State
The New Age of
Capitalism

10. Democratization of Power & Wealth
Global GDP* % % Global GDP 2015
100
75
Developed Countries Asia
80
50 60
Developing Countries 40
ROW
25 20
0
1820 70 1913 50 73 2005 India USA Other Regions
China
Other Japan Western Europe

11. The New USA
East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia

12. The New Geopolitics
Japan
Asia
China
Latin
Africa
American
Europe The US

13. A Range of Future after the End of the Bi-polar World
Unipolarity
Bipolarity
First
Among Equals
The 1+X World
Multipolarity
Source: Tanaka Akihiko

14. Policy Responding to the Rise of Multipolarity
• China
New • India
Triad • Russia
Thailand
• Europe
• US • China
• Japan Existing
• Japan
Triad
• Korea

15. Global Forces & Trends
Globalization
Democratization of of Risks
Power & Wealth
The End of
the Nation-State
The New Age of
Capitalism

16. Whole Picture of the World Economy
One Side of the Coin The Other Side of the Coin
Growth Risks
Opportunity Interaction Threats
Prosperity Crises

17. We are living in a Global Risk Community
Globalization of Risks
Risk Society
• Climate Change
Global
• Financial Crisis
•Pandemic Diseases
• Hyper-conflict
• Terrorism
• Mass Production • Imbalance
of Refugee
• Instability
Local
• Extreme Poverty
• Genocide • Insecurity
• Civil War
Local Global

18. The Evolution of Global Risks
Twenty First
Century
Risks
Twentieth
Century
Risks • Climate Change
• Global Financial Crises
• Suicide Attacks
• Industrial Accidents
• Wars
Natural Catastrophes
e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis

19. Global risks occur in multiple dimensions
Some risks are spreading over national
Spatial borders and even over continents
Some risks have a long latency period,
Temporal so that their future effects cannot be
reliably determined and restricted
Many new risks are the result of complex
Social processes involving long chains of effects,
so their causes and effects cannot be
determined with sufficient precision

20. We are facing with perpetual uncertainty
Global
Job
Crisis
Global
Magnitude of Crisis
Economic
Crisis
Severity
Global
Financial
Turmoil
Commodity
Price
Bubble
Real
Estate
Bubble
Dot Within
Com a Decade
Burst
Asian
Financial
Crisis
Time Time

21. The impact of global risks
Democratic Global risks affect both the rich and the poor, the
powerful and the powerless
Incalculable Their consequence are in principle incalculable
Non-Compensable Given the new quality of “threats to humanity”,
the logic of compensation is breaking down and
is being replaced by the principle of precaution
through prevention

22. In the Liquid Phase Modernity, “Fear” determines
the attitude towards life
Freedom & National
Equality Security
Human
Security Security
Construction &
maintenance of Precaution
social & political
order Management of Laissez-faire
uncertainty, risk
& insecurity
Security is the legal assurance of freedom

23. Can Thailand accommodate global risks and
opportunities?
The Rise of the Rest
The Age of Africa World
Opportunities
The Rise of Asia
Relationship w/ China, India Asia • Climate
Change
• Endemic/
AEC
Mekong Region
ASEAN Chronic
North Korea Disease
Border Terrorism • Economic
Regional Hub Conflict Crisis
Myanmar
Thailand Migration
Political Turmoil Risks

24. Bridging policy and managerial implications
Macro Macro
Opportunity Risk
Micro Micro
Opportunity Risk

25. Environmental Climate Dimension (+)
Beneficiaries from Climate Change Double
under Government Control Winners
Construction&
Associated Sector
Tourism Chemical Mechanical
Industry & Electrical
Renewable
Engineering
Building Materials, Energies
Auto-
Paper Industry
motive
Metal Industry
Regulatory
Energy Sector Textile Agriculture
Market
(-) Finance
(Fossil Fuels) & Clothing & Forestry Economy
Condition
(+)
Transportation
Food
Industry
Beneficiaries from Government
Double
Measures with Climate Risks
Losers
Source: DB Research
(-)

26. A growth-driven virtuous circle and a risk-driven
vicious circle are highly associated
Growth
Risks
Interaction Threats Opportunity
Crises
Prosperity

27. Two basic principles of risk evaluation come into
conflicts
Precaution
“When in doubt,
opt against doubt”
Order Chaos
Laissez-faire
“When in doubt,
opt for doubt”

28. Global Forces & Trends
Globalization
Democratization of of Risks
Power & Wealth
The End of
the Nation-State
The New Age of
Capitalism

29. Globalization of Public Goods
Global
Commons

30. Shifting in Centricity
Global
Social Centric
Conformance
Community
Centric
Conformance
Company
Economic Centric
Conformance
Local Global

31. The End of Nation-State?
Global
Governance
Commonization
Nation-State
Liquid Modernity
Individualization
Self Governance

32. High Conflict
Divergence of interests
among great powers Sham Rival
Standards Standards
Low Conflict
Club Harmonized
Standards Standards
High Conflict Low Conflict
Divergence of interests between
great powers and other international actors
Source: Daniel W. Drezner “All Politics Is Global”

33. Global Forces & Trends
Globalization
Democratization of of Risks
Power & Wealth
The End of
the Nation-State
The New Age of
Capitalism

34. The End of Socialism
Socialism Capitalism
There is
no alternative
Free Market
Economy

35. The End of Capitalism ?
• Setting coordinating
mechanism
Capitalism
• Sharing more information
and warning signals
• Making the system
more transparent
Managed
Free Market • Minimizing the asymmetric
Economy information and unfair
Economy
practices
Coordinated
Economy • Pursuing the tighten
regulation and
de-leveraging measures

36. Centralization & Concentration
Mode of Operations
Poly- Geo- Ethno-
Centricity Centricity Centricity
Free Market
Economy
Capitalism
Coordinated
Economy
Managed
Economy

37. Change in Consumption Pattern
• Earning Adaptation
• Spending/Saving Ratio According to
High the Crisis
Purchasing
Power
• Economize
• Reprioritize
Low
High Low
Necessity of Goods

38. Increase Consumer Purchasing Power
Adaptation
High According to
the Crisis
•
Purchasing
Government
Power
stimulus
package
• Consumer
finance
Low
High Low
Necessity of Goods

39. Increase Affordability
Adaptation
High According to
the Crisis
Purchasing
Power
• Value for money
• No Frill/ Reduced
options
• Fighting brands/
Private label
• Special offered
Low
High Low
Necessity of Goods

40. Change in Competitive Intensity
Pre-Crisis
Accumulative
Market Share
Concentration Ratio
Post Crisis
Scenario I
Accumulative
Market Share
Accumulative
Market Share
Post Crisis
Scenario II
Number of Competitors
Number of Competitors

41. Agenda
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
• Industry In Transition
• Building New Industry Portfolio
for Sustainable Competitiveness

42. Reorienting the World
Humanization Post Knowledge Based
Society
Knowledge Based
Society
Industrial
Materialization Society
Private Interest Public Interest

43. Reorienting the Mental Model
Humanization Care & Share
Sense & Response
Make & Sell
Materialization
Private Interest Public Interest

44. A Balanced Nation
Economic Environmental
Wealth Wellness
Sustainable
Value Creation
Development
Economy
Entrepreneurial
Culture
Caring
Society
Self Expression
Value
Care & Share
Culture
People Communal
with Knowledge Value
& Morality
Human Social
Wisdom Well-Being

45. Strategic Gaps
Environmental Environmental
Wellness Wellness
Social Economic Social Economic
Well-being Wealth Well-being Wealth
Human Human
Wisdom Wisdom

46. Challenges Facing Economic based Industry
Environmental
Friendly ?
Economic
Based Social
Industry Responsibility ?
• Efficiency
• Profitability
• Growth
Human
Potentiality ?

47. Environmental Friendly ?
Positive
Collective Action Positive
Win-Win Sum Game
Existing Maximum
Capacity
Trade-off
Negative
Sum Game
Oblivious
Time
Presence

48. Social Responsibility ?
Corporate Corporate Global
Corporate Corporate Social Corporate
Social
Governance Philanthropy Responsibility Citizenship
Entrepreneurship

49. Human Potentiality ?
Industrial Age Knowledge Age Creative Age
• Mass Production • Mass Customization •Creative Collaboration
•Corporate Governance •Market Governance •People Governance
•Asymmetry of •Democratization of •Democratization of
Information Information Creativity
•Economies of Scarcity •Network Externality •Economies of Reciprocity
•Owning the Asset •Gaining the Access •Empowering the People
•Consumer/Producer •B2C Prosumer/ Co-Creator •P2P Prosumer
•Market Segmentation •Value Chain Integration •Open Innovation/ Creativity
•Goods for Elite •Goods for Everyone •Goods For/By Everyone
Source: Suvit Maesincee “Post Knowledge Based Society”

50. Agenda
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
• Industry In Transition
• Building New Industry Portfolio
for Sustainable Competitiveness

51. A balanced nation needs a balanced industry portfolio
Economic Environmental
Economic Environmental Centric Centric
Wealth Wellness Industries Industries
Human Social
Human Social Centric Centric
Wisdom Well-Being Industries Industries

52. The New Portfolio of Industries
Economic Environmental
Centric Centric
Industries Industries
Human Social
Centric Centric
Industries Industries
• Manufacturing • Alternative • Creative • OTOP
Energy Economy • BOP
• Recycle • Service • Social Production
Business Industries • Peer Production
• Knowledge • Distributed
Industries Creativity
Resource Resource Knowledge/
Social
Spending Saving Creative
Content
Content Content Content
Efficiency Sustainability Creativity Co-Prosperity

53. Industry Cluster Redefined
Environmental Centric
Economic Centric Industry Cluster
Industry Cluster
Social Centric
Industry Cluster
Human Centric
Industry Cluster
Interaction among clusters enhance value creation

54. Creative Value Creation
Economic
Centric Industry Value Value
Added Creation
Social
Centric Industry
Human Creative
Centric Industry Business
Environmental
Centric Industry
Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative
Economy Economy Economy Economy

55. Environmental Value Creation
Economic
Value Value
Centric Industry
Added Creation
Social
Centric Industry
Human
Centric Industry
Energy Saving
Environmental Business
Centric Industry
Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative
Economy Economy Economy Economy

56. Social Value Creation
Economic
Value Value
Centric Industry
Added Creation
Social Social
Centric Industry Enterprise
Human
Centric Industry
Environmental
Centric Industry
Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative
Economy Economy Economy Economy

57. Industry Capacity Building

58. Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable
Competitiveness
Economic Social
Wealth Well-being
Economic Social
Centric Centric
Industry Industry
Human Environmental
Centric Centric
Industry Industry
Human Environmental
Wisdom Wellness