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Retail Real Estate Market Overview By Walter Bialas Vice President of Research Madison Marquette
Recession Rumored at the  End of 2007 is Now Official ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Unemployment Rising Rapidly ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Uncertainty Has Driven Consumer Confidence to Historic Lows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Retail Spending Outlook Impacted ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Shopping Center Sales Decline  After Extended Run-Up ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Department Stores Continue to Struggle  to Find Customers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Discounters and Supercenters Enjoying Sustained Sales Growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Apparel Sector Slowing with Economy ,[object Object]
Big Ticket Items Particularly Hurt ,[object Object],[object Object]
Retailers Consolidate and Restructure  to Find Solid Base ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some of the More Notable  2008 Announcements ,[object Object],[object Object],ANNOUNCED STORE CLOSINGS SELECT RETAILERS AS OF DECEMBER 2008             Retailer Stores Closing Status Ann Taylor 117 Re-Structuring Banana Republic 25 Re-Structuring Circuit City 155 Chapter 11 Club Libby Lu 78 Re-Structuring Disney Stores 98 Chapter 11 Fashion Bug  / Lane Bryant / Catherine's 146 Re-Structuring Foot Locker 60 Re-Structuring Friedman's Jewelers 377 Chapter 11 Linen's n Things 371 Chapter 11 Mervyn's 149 Chapter 7 Pacific Sunwear 154 Re-Structuring Sharper Image 96 Chapter 11 Starbucks 600 Re-Structuring Steve & Barry's 276 Chapter 7 Talbots Kids / Talbots Mens 78 Re-Structuring Tweeter 94 Chapter 11 White Hall Jewelers 355 Chapter 11 Wilson's Leather 103 Chapter 11 Zales Jewelers 105 Re-Structuring TOTAL 3,437 --—
Retail Projects Under Construction  Beginning to Slow ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Retail Vacancy Rising as Tenants Retrench ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Transaction Volume Back to 2001-2002 Levels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cap Rates Beginning to Readjust  to New Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Over Correction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
REIT Dividend Yields Out of Sync ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recent Retail REIT Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PERFORMANCE SUMMARY SELECT RETAIL REITS AS OF DECEMBER 3, 2008 (Millions)                     Stock Price (Per Share) Current Equity Cap Enterprise Value Total Debt (YE 2007) Implied  Cap Rate  1/ REIT Ticker 4-Dec-07 Current Price Decline General Growth Properties GGP $45.84 $1.33 97% $490 $24,840 $24,350 10.5% Macrerich MAC $76.29 $11.32 85% $862 $6,625 $5,763 9.5% Simon Property Group SPG $94.44 $46.36 51% $10,469 $27,688 $17,219 8.0% Taubman Centers TCO $52.51 $21.57 59% $1,144 $3,845 $2,701 8.0% Acadia Realty Trust AKR $25.28 $13.13 48% $433 $951 $518 8.0% Federal Realty Trust FRT $81.37 $52.32 36% $3,085 $4,723 $1,638 8.5% Pennsylvania REIT PEI $32.53 $3.96 88% $156 $2,431 $2,274 10.6% Regency Centers REG $65.52 $31.40 52% $2,198 $4,206 $2,008 10.5% 1/  Implied cap rate based on Wall Street analyst reports from the end of October to early November.      

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Madison Marquette

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