Briefly discusses ten significant takeaways from India's State Assembly Elections, 2018 today

1. Ten Takeaways from India State Assembly Elections, 2018
Shantanu Basu
My ten takeaways from today’s state assembly election results, in no particular order:
1. Politics of religion, from Ram Mandir to Gotra and janeus, does not fill empty bellies. If
the BJP’s majoritarian politics flopped, so did the INCs’ half-hearted religious pitch. That
may have accounted for the ding-dong electoral battle in MP and Rajasthan. CG was
probably neglected by the BJP, hence the anti-BJP results. In Telangana, TRS’s good
governance paid off without any religious overtones.
2. Negative campaigns did not help. While the BJP failed to impress voters with past
governance records, the INC did not have the foggiest idea of what governance to deliver.
Hence the fractured verdict in MP and Rajasthan. For CG and MP evidently, development
was outbalanced by allegations of large corruption against the incumbent CM’s and their
families. Telangana rejected TDP in favor of their homegrown son Mr. Rao who is
relatively untainted by corruption charges. Voters were willing to forgive his generosity
upon himself and devoting state coffers to Lord Venkateshwara and his divine friends. This
equally holds a strong warning to INC and BJP, viz. perform or perish. We are not
interested in your lofty proclamations and white lies.
3. The troika of Modi-Shah-Yogi with their majoritarian pitch only sabotaged whatever
chances their incumbent CM had. In fact, to me, it even seemed that the troika’s pitch was
geared to keep Shivraj Singh Chauhan from winning by a religious slant that was
diametrically opposed to what Chauhan was saying all these years. Had Shivraj won his
fourth term, he may have emerged as a consensus candidate for next PM in the event the
numbers did not total and a BJP-led coalition became inevitable.
4. Interviews in the media, (all channels) of voters showed they had ten major grievances,
viz.
i. Job reservations
ii. Loan waivers benefitting large farmers and the loans they took from coop banks
iii. Gross inadequacy of waivers for smaller farmers of ludicrous figures of Rs. 2.50 in
cases
iv. delayed payment of crop insurance damage
v. Endemic unemployment
vi. Rising energy and food costs and food imports that severely undermined ambitious
MSPs that were never adhered in quantity and resultant depressed prices for agri-
produce.
vii. Low wages and erratic government cash hand-outs form cash-strapped public
exchequer
viii. Huge harm caused to business by DeMo and cow terrorism that have all but ruined
our lucrative leather industry

2. ix. Delayed refund of GST, particularly to exporters that employed thousands of
workers
x. Too much talk and promise but little or no action on anything on the ground
although in five years something more tangible should have been seen.
Interestingly, DBT of Rs. 4000/acre in Telangana was welcomed while Chauhan’s cash-
handout-based regime with erratic payouts evidently was not attractive enough. These
issues also were almost all wholly in the jurisdiction of the Govt. of India. Much as the BJP
may proclaim, these issues are not going away before Apr., 2019, indeed would haunt that
party. Neither is there enough public funds available to indulge voters nor is there much
time to water the voters before Apr. 2019 when the Model Code of Conduct sets in. These
are national issues and affect all states and all farm-activity, young unemployed, low
wages, women, etc. voters. Why else would Gujjars and Jats swing away from the BJP in
Rajasthan?
5. Another interesting issue was the near-total absence of media reports, even in the
vernacular media, of truckloads of cash, sewing machines, sarees, bicycles, laptops, etc. as
‘incentive’ for voters. Evidently, voters did not evince much interest in such ‘incentives’.
A related issue was the minimal violence by political party goons since voters kept their
silence in all surveys and there was no way of gauging their political preferences to beat
them into submission.
6. Gone are the days of multi-thousand vote victories. Up to a fifth of seats in MP & Rajasthan
had contests with difference of 125-1500 votes (at about 1700 hours today) among the two
principal contestants. This probably has delayed the declaration of results by ECI. The
voter has clearly put political parties on notice. Holograms of Pradhan Chaukidars do not
impress voters any longer. Elections are no longer about personalities’ they are wholly
about public welfare. With frighteningly narrow margins of victory, an MLA/MP would
have to perform or face physical voter assault (many faced it during the campaign) and
being kicked out mercilessly in the next election. The incumbent Mizoram CM was kicked
out from both constituencies. The irrelevant Indian is making himself/herself relevant at
long last.
7. Caste loyalties, much like religious one, also do not seem to have had appreciable effect
on voting patterns. The Gujjars switching to Sachin Pilot was more economic than caste-
based.
8. Another emerging trend has been large positive voter response to more educated leaders,
be they the Gwalior scion, Pilot or TS Singh Deo (CG). A sub-theme is the oncoming pull-
push between the old guard and the new. The crusty Ashok Gehlot and a jaded Kamal Nath
will negate INC’s goodwill and erode its voter base by Apr., 2019. The same holds true of
the BJP with its Modi-Shah-Yogi-Sakshi Maharaj, etc. States need out-of-the box thinking
that these old guards are simply not capable of nor have the supporting training and
awareness. In fact, all parties need to mandatorily adopt the babu’s 60 years of age
retirement age. Improving longevity seldom reflects in the quality of a human mind.
9. Social media, more than TV, notably in the vernacular, is a double-edged sword, like all
other media, but far more potent and uncontrolled. If the BJP relied on abusive bots and

3. rabid haters with none other than the PM’s likes egging them on, INC’s were often far more
articulate, something that the BJP was simply unable to negate. Abuse and trolls,
particularly in the vernacular, on platforms like Twitter, reached the remotest corners of
India. Hence, voting decisions were made in the confines of voter homes, a tribute to the
aam aadmi/aurat. These rendered political rallies and pre-poll surveys redundant, hence
low turnouts. Combined with an excessively Hindu slant, trolls and abuse was the other
side of the social media sword that the BJP never realized in their exuberance of 2014.
Swati Chaturvedi’s book – I am a Troll- is frightening and includes AAP trolls too. If used
effectively to deliver services to voters, social media is the new electoral weapon of the
21st century. It is the world’s newest Weapon of Mass Destruction as Elections 2018 have
showed. Party-based cadres too had seemingly little effect, perhaps more of throwbacks to
politics of the 1950s-1990s, often an embarrassment and liability.
10. Finally, in an economically disadvantaged nation like India self-respect remains high on
the pecking order. ‘Buying’ votes via erratic cash hand-outs as Shivraj tried from a tottering
public exchequer, is hardly a replacement for jobs that are honorable recompense for a
hard-working family. TRS’s Rs. 4000/acre handout assisted the honest farmer, and did not
bestow gratis upon him; that is why it was a clear winner. The sheer arrogance of public
moneys being thrown in the faces of voters, akin to alms to a beggar, is something not even
the poorest will tolerate, seven decades after Independence. In the next five years, we
should be prepared to see our MPs/MLAs facing physical assault and virulent abuse from
their electors and their goons publicly thrashed, a sure sign of coming of age for Indian
democracy.
A silent voter revolution is finally happening in India. The voter has finally come of age as
Elections 2018 that was amply proved today. To ignore their loud warnings is folly for any political
party.