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Futureproofed • Systems thinking fundamentals for higher education • Workshop

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Futureproofed • Systems thinking fundamentals for higher education • Workshop

This is a short introduction to the fundamentals of system dynamics: stock and flow models with connectors and feedback loops; rules of "grammar" and a couple of example models.

This is a short introduction to the fundamentals of system dynamics: stock and flow models with connectors and feedback loops; rules of "grammar" and a couple of example models.

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Futureproofed • Systems thinking fundamentals for higher education • Workshop

  1. 1. FUTUREPROOFED SYSTEMS’ THINKING FUNDAMENTALS & GRAMMAR Serge de Gheldere Ecocampus Studiedag systeemdenken 25 April 2013 Flow Stock Converter Connector Feedback futureproofed.com
  2. 2. World Economic Forum in collaboration with : Marsh & McLennan Companies Swiss Reinsurance Company Wharton Center for Risk Management, University of Pennsylvania Zurich Financial Services GlobalRisks 2011 SixthEdition An initiative of the Risk Response Network World Economic Forum January 2011 Climate change most important risk of next 10 years (January 2011) WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
  3. 3. Economicimpact(billion$) Likelihood of occurring in the next 10 years
  4. 4. futureproofed.com A range of systems thinking skillsA range of systems thinking skills Apply Systems Thinking Skills 95-100% Build Simple Maps 40-50% Build Simple Models 15-20% Build Complex Models 2% Source: sustainability institute
  5. 5. futureproofed.com Applying systems’ thinking Source: sustainability institute Applying systems thinking The following curve is instructive regarding how to apply system dynamics There’s value to be added at many points along the curve! Value/ Utility Effort/Time Expended; Skill Required “Conversational” use of thinking skills Simple stock & flow map Simple model/interface Complex model/interface “Mother of all Models”
  6. 6. futureproofed.com “Laundry list” thinking mental model Source: tracing connection (voices of systems thinkers) Gangs Violence
  7. 7. futureproofed.com Systems’ thinking mental model Effect is also cause Source: tracing connection (voices of systems thinkers) Gangs Violence
  8. 8. futureproofed.com “Laundry list” thinking mental model Source: tracing connection (voices of systems thinkers) Good teachers Good parenting High motivation Positive classroom environment Academic success
  9. 9. futureproofed.com Systems’ thinking mental model Source: tracing connection (voices of systems thinkers) Good teachers Good parenting High motivation Positive classroom environment Academic success
  10. 10. futureproofed.com Stock & flow models Source: Tracing connections, sustainability institute Flow Stock Stocks represent accumulation of, for example people, things, cars, stress... Flows represent actions or activities that fill or drain accumulations over time
  11. 11. futureproofed.com Artic ice cover Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing Artic ice cover Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing One stock, two flows Stress Stress Building stress from overworking Decreasing stress from relaxing Artic ice cover Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing Public transport Choosing the bus Giving up on the bus Bus riders (people)(people/month) (people/month) Natural capital Tree growth Deforestation Healthy rainforest cover (km2)(km2/year) (km2/year) Artic ice cover Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing Bathtub water in tub inflow outflow (liter)(liter/min) (liter/min)
  12. 12. futureproofed.com
  13. 13. The climate project futureproofed.com
  14. 14. The climate project futureproofed.com
  15. 15. Haïti Dominican Republic The climate project futureproofed.com
  16. 16. Haïti Dominican Republic The climate project Ecosystem services: “interest” on natural capital Living systems (capital) Ecosystem services (interest) Ecosystem services futureproofed.com
  17. 17. Haïti Dominican Republic The climate project Ecosystem services: “interest” on natural capital Living systems (capital) Ecosystem services (interest) Ecosystem services • Water purification • Flood management • Pollination • Buffering extreme weather • Soil formation • Photosynthesis: CO2 to O2 Ecosystem services futureproofed.com
  18. 18. futureproofed.com
  19. 19. MELTING PERMAFROST COAL MINING COAL PLANTS CROP BURNING OIL PRODUCTION FOREST BURNING LAND TRANSPORTATION LANDFILLS FERTILIZATION INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES Where Do Greenhouse Gases Come From? futureproofed.com
  20. 20. Tropospheric CO2 July 2003 363 CO2 Concentration PPMV 386 Source: NASA/JPL futureproofed.com
  21. 21. Tropospheric CO2 July 2008 363 CO2 Concentration PPMV 386 Source: NASA/JPL futureproofed.com
  22. 22. futureproofed.com Basic stock and flow models Source: Thinking in systems; Futureproofed Rain Water in lake River inflow River outflow Evaporation Mining Fossil fuel reserves
  23. 23. futureproofed.comSource: Tracing connections, sustainability institute Basic stock and flow models
  24. 24. futureproofed.com Stocks & flows Rules of grammar Source: sustainability institute; Futureproofed All flows into and out of a stock must bear the same units-of-measure as the stock itself, but on a per time basis. All physical flows come from somewhere (i.e., deplete some feedstock), and go to somewhere (i.e., fill some repository). Artic ice cover Ocean freezing Artic ice thawing (km2)(km2/year) (km2/year) Being hired Losing jobs Employed youth (people)(people/year) (people/year) Rule 1: Respect unit consistency Rule 2: Respect conservation laws Employed youth Being hired Candidate pool Losing jobs Former employees In building a model, you must draw the boundary of the system you want to model. Heat from furnace Heat to outside Room temperature Learning Forgetting Knowledge
  25. 25. futureproofed.com Flow Converter Stock The basics Examples of basic stock & flow models Source: Tracing connections, sustainability institute Connector Stocks represent accumulation of, for example people, things, cars, stress... Flows represent actions or activities that fill or drain accumulations over time Connectors show causal relationships that drive the generation of activity Converters modify flows and other converters. One of their most common uses is to tell how quickly an action happens
  26. 26. futureproofed.com Flow Stock Converter The basics Examples of basic stock & flow models Source: Tracing connections, sustainability institute Connector Feedback Stocks represent accumulation of, for example people, things, cars, stress... Flows represent actions or activities that fill or drain accumulations over time Connectors show causal relationships that drive the generation of activity Converters modify flows and other converters. One of their most common uses is to tell how quickly an action happens. A feedback loop is formed when changes in the stock affect the flow into or out of that same stock.
  27. 27. futureproofed.com Models with feedback loops Source: Futureproofed, Barry Richmont Flow Stock Converter Interest rate Feedback Earning interest Cash on bank account Flow Stock Converter Methane release rate per °C warming Feedback Methane release from permafrost Global warming Converter yx Growing apart Health of relation rate of decay of relationship Converter yx forgetting Memoriz ed facts memory time constant
  28. 28. futureproofed.comfutureproofed.com
  29. 29. 1980 futureproofed.com
  30. 30. 2005 futureproofed.com
  31. 31. 2007 futureproofed.com
  32. 32. Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007 futureproofed.com
  33. 33. futureproofed.com
  34. 34. futureproofed.com
  35. 35. futureproofed.com
  36. 36. Positive feedback loops futureproofed.com
  37. 37. example- Storytelling Nuage Vert Helsinki Continuous process of visualising, inspiring with gamification element. Allowing for broader media-support.
  38. 38. How many Gigatons ...
  39. 39. From the Drivepower Technology Atlas. Tunneling through the cost barrier FACTOR 10 improvement at lower initial cost Pipes Larger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layout Pump specs. Smaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motors Capital investment Lower than original designLower than original designLower than original design Pumping power (hp) before: 95 after: 7 saving: 93% -90 %
  40. 40. How to specify flows Summary of Generic Flow Templates Stock-Generated Flow-Generated Compounding Infected Population becoming infected infection rate becoming = Infected * infection infected Population rate pumping = Oil Wells * well productivity External Resource Barrels of Oil pumping Oil Wells well productivity Co-flow eroding = water running off * soilunit of water Top Soil eroding water running off soilunit of water Stock-adjustment changing = gap * adjustment fraction changing = gap / adjustment time Perceived Quality adjusting perception gap Current Quality adjustment fraction or time constant Draining discharging = Patients * daily discharge fraction or discharging = Patients / average time in hospital Patients discharging daily disharge fraction Generic flow templates Source: sustainability institute futureproofed.com
  41. 41. futureproofed.com Software and web-resources Leverage Points Blog Sustainability Institute Category:Stock & Flow - SystemsWiki Vensim - systems thinking software Consideo - Modeler & iModeler software isee systems - SystemsThinking Software
  42. 42. futureproofed.com Books Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem-solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. This essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than methodology. Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble and to continue to learn. In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and interdependent,Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding proactive and effective solutions.A vital read for students, professionals and all those concerned with economics, business, sustainability and the environment
  43. 43. Tracing ConnectionsVoices of Systems Thinkers Twelve of the world’s foremost systems thinkers share how they use this powerful thinking tool to change lives. This book will leave you with a better understanding for what systems thinking is, who is using it, and why applying systems thinking is critical in an interdependent world. In tribute to their colleague and friend Barry Richmond, this volume’s contributors include pioneers who studied under Jay Forrester at MIT, teachers and colleagues trained by Barry, and a client from the World Bank who came to embrace systems thinking in his work. The proceeds from this book will support and train educators in systems thinking through the Creative Learning Exchange, helping further Barry’s mission of getting systems thinking into the hands of as many people as possible. Ali Mashayekhi Professor of Management, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran Steve Peterson Principal Consultant, Lexidyne, LLC, West Lebanon, New Hampshire Frank Draper Physics and field sciences teacher, Catalina Foothills School District, Tucson, Arizona Tracy Benson Coordinator of the Waters Foundation, Systems Thinking in Schools project, Tucson, Arizona Diana M. Fisher Math teacher, Wilson High School, Portland, Oregon John Morecroft Professor of Management Science and Operations, London Business School, London Corey Peck Managing Director, Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, Colorado John L. Newman Lead Economist, Poverty and Gender Group, Latin America and Caribbean Region, The World Bank James K. Doyle Associate Professor of Psychology, Worcester Poly- technic Institute, Worcester, Massachusetts Khalid Saeed Professor of Social Science and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Insti- tute, Worcester, Massachusetts Jeanine Skorinko Assistant Professor of Social Science and Policy Studies, Worcester Poly- technic Institute, Worcester, Massachusetts Peter M. Senge Author of The Fifth Discipline, Founding Chair of the Society for Organizational Learning, and senior lecturer, MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts Systems thinking provides the missing intellectual and cognitive underpinning for education for sustainability and global citizenship. This extraordinary book could not come at a better time as more and more people realize that patching up our industrial age schools will achieve neither the innovation nor the inclusiveness so desperately needed. Building on Barry Richmond’s seminal work on the critical thinking skills embedded in rigorous systems thinking, the book gives a wide sampling of the progress that has been made by innovative educators in the past two decades in curricula and pedagogy. Long regarded as the stuff of graduate education, these skills are being embedded in primary education and developed to remarkably advanced levels in secondary education. —Peter Senge MIT and SoL CONTRIBUTING AUTHORSTracing Connections is for anyone who’s ever wondered how SystemsThinking can be effectively used to significantly and successfully transform education, business, public policy, and research. In ten chapters, teachers,World Bank Executives, corporate consultants, researchers and college professors lead the reader through an amazing spectrum of applied SystemThinking that leads to unexpected realizations and critical understanding. Inspired by Barry Richmond, Systems Thinking pioneer, isee systems founder, and creator of STELLA and iThink,Tracing Connections reveals how a new way of thinking can radically improve your ability to work through complex issues and uncover elegant solutions. futureproofed.com
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  45. 45. Extraction & burning Burned carbon Profit Fossil fuels Price Growing awareness Awareness of carbon bubble risk Capital of fossil fuels companies Reinvesting profits Desinvesting due to carbon bubble risk Homework The Friedman Futureproofed project ;-) REACTIES BEWAAR ARTIKEL Door: redactie 29/04/13 - 16u01 Bron: IPS © reuters. Zeventig procent van de bekende olie- en gasreserves moeten in de grond blijven om een gevaarlijke klimaatwijziging te voorkomen. "Gebrek aan leiderschap", zegt een bezorgde wetenschapper op de VN-klimaatbijeenkomst deze week in Bonn. De energie-industrie spendeerde in 2012 nog 674 miljard dollar om op zoek te gaan naar meer fossiele brandstof. "Een moratorium op nieuwe investeringen in infrastructuur voor fossiele brandstoffen is voor de hand liggend", zegt Asad Rehman van Friends of the Earth. "De Verenigde Naties kunnen landen bijeenbrengen om hierover te praten", zegt hij naar aanleiding van de bijeenkomst die vandaag in het Duitse Bonn van start gaat. De 195 betrokken partijen van de VN-raamconventie over de klimaatverandering (UNFCCC) ontmoeten elkaar gedurende de hele week om over een nieuw klimaatverdrag vanaf 2020 te onderhandelen. Er worden manieren besproken om de uitstoot van fossiele brandstoffen te verminderen. De Wereldbank, het Internationaal Energieagentschap en een nieuw rapport van de econoom Nicholas Stern zeggen allemaal dat bijna 70 procent van de bekende reserves van fossiele brandstoffen niet mag worden verbrand willen we de opwarming van de aarde onder de twee graden Celsius houden. "Houd olie en gas in grond om de klimaatwijziging te stoppen" ARTIKEL 16 GERELATEERD NIEUWS MEER OVER Mosselen op Antarctica in gevaar door warmere oceaan "Dat de zuidpoolgletsjers smelten, is niet ongewoon" Amerikaanse grootsteden halen geld weg uit oliesector GLOBAL WARMING 20u06 Franstalige regeringen akkoord ... 20u03 Arbeider in levensgevaar na ... 19u47 België veroordeeld voor ... 19u46 Dop schiet van flesje: tiener ... 19u45 Ford trekt productie van ... Ellen DeGeneres nodigt supertalent uit Filipijns 14-jarig zangtalent Lippens verwelkomt Cirque du Soleil Badeend van 16 meter in Hongkong geland Wielrenner overlijdt na zware valpartij in Veldegem Vind ik leuk 26 Train your systems’ thinking muscles by mapping current events with your team or your class. •Take a news article; •List all factors at play: •Identify stocks, flows, convertors, connections and feedback loops; •Test “behaviour” and use the map to discuss causal loops places to intervene and solutions; •Gain insights, adapt map •Repeat. etc... futureproofed.com
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