Carbon bubble, oil decline and the shared value opportunity for logistics
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This is the introduction of the debate at last week's CSCMP Europe 2013 conference in Amsterdam, as discussed by Serge de Gheldere The theme of the debate was "Towards a sustainable future for transport and logistics".
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Carbon bubble, oil decline and the shared value opportunity for logistics
- 1. futureproofed.com futureproofed.com CSCMP Amsterdam 2013 Towards a sustainable future for transport and logistics Carbon bubble, oil decline and the shared value opportunity for logistics Serge de Gheldere
- 2. THE CLIMATE PROJECT “Climate ambassador” for Al Gore futureproofed.com
- 3. THE CLIMATE PROJECT “Climate ambassador” for Al Gore futureproofed.com
- 4. GROEPT Engineering College Director futureproofed.com
- 6. futureproofed.com We deliver bold, sustainable business solutions, creating value today and tomorrow. futureproofed.com
- 9. futureproofed.com “World is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges.” World economic forum 2013 Global Risks 2013 Eighth Edition An Initiative of the Risk Response Network Insight Report futureproofed.com
- 10. iftheriskweretooccur Economic Environmental Geopolitical 5 4 3 2 4.1 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 Critical fragile states Major systemic financial failure Water supply crises Chronic fiscal imbalances Severe income disparity Chronic labour market imbalances Rising religious fanaticism Mismanagement of population ageing Terrorism Persistent extreme weather Cyber attacks Mismanaged urbanization Species overexploitation Massive incident of data fraud/theft Rising rates of chronic disease Entrenched organized crime Massive digital misinformation Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation Militarization of space Land and waterway use mismanagement Unmanageable inflation or deflation Critical systems failure Vulnerability to pandemics Unmanaged migration Recurring liquidity crises Irremediable pollution Unsustainable population growth Food shortage crises Global governance failure Rising greenhouse gas emission Failure of climate change adaptation Failure of diplomatic conflict resolution Extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices Diffusion of weapons of mass destruction Unforeseen consequences of new life science technologies Backlash against globalizationBacklash against globalization Unprecedented geophysical destruction Ineffective illicit drug policies Unforeseen consequences of nanotechnology Widespread illicit trade Proliferation of orbital debris Failure of intellectual property regime Antibiotic- resistant bacteria Pervasive entrenched corruption Hard landing of an emerging economy Unilateral resource nationalization Unforeseen consequences of climate change mitigation Prolonged infrastructure neglect Vulnerability to geomagnetic storms Mineral resource supply vulnerability Impactiftheriskweretooccur Likelihood to occur in the next ten years Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 Critical fragile states Chronic labour market imbalances Rising religious fanaticism Mismanagement of population ageing Terrorism Persistent extreme weather Cyber attacks Mismanaged urbanization Species overexploitation Massive incident of data fraud/theft Rising rates of chronic disease Entrenched organized crime Massive digital misinformation Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation Militarization of space Land and waterway use mismanagement Unmanageable inflation or deflation Critical systems failure Vulnerability to pandemics Unmanaged migration Recurring liquidity crises Irremediable pollution Unsustainable population growth Failure of diplomatic conflict resolution Unforeseen consequences of new life science technologies Backlash against globalizationBacklash against globalization Unprecedented geophysical destruction Ineffective illicit drug policies Unforeseen consequences of nanotechnology Widespread illicit trade Proliferation of orbital debris Failure of intellectual property regime Antibiotic- resistant bacteria Pervasive entrenched corruption Hard landing of an emerging economy Unilateral resource nationalization Unforeseen consequences of climate change mitigation Prolonged infrastructure neglect Vulnerability to geomagnetic storms Mineral resource supply vulnerability Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 futureproofed.com
- 11. 400.000 climate change related deaths/year ClimateVulnerableForum CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLANET2ND EDITION CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORAGUIDETOTHECOLDCALCULUSOFAHOTPLANET 1.200 bn $ climate and carbon related losses/year(2011) futureproofed.com
- 12. futureproofed.com All of this is now, and with ‘only’ 0.8 °C futureproofed.com
- 19. How many Gigatons ... futureproofed.com
- 20. How many Gigatons ... futureproofed.com
- 21. How many Gigatons ... futureproofed.com
- 22. How many Gigatons ... futureproofed.com
- 24. futureproofed.com Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble? futureproofed.com
- 25. You want me to leave it down here? May 4th 2013 | From the print edition Energy firms and climate change Unburnable fuel Either governments are not serious about climate change or fossil-fuel firms are overvalued MARKETS can misprice risk, as investors in subprime mortgages discovered in 2008. Several recent reports suggest that markets are now overlooking the risk of “unburnable carbon”. The share prices of oil, gas and coal companies depend in part on their reserves. The more fossil fuels a firm has underground, the more valuable its shares. But what if some of those reserves can never be dug up and burned? If governments were determined to implement their climate policies, a lot of that carbon would have to be left in the ground, says Carbon Tracker, a non-profit organisation, and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, part of the London School of Economics. Their analysis starts by estimating the amount of carbon dioxide that could be put into the TweetTweet 575 Adver Co E- Rec Like 2.4k Digital & mobile Events Topics A-Z Newsletters Jobs Search Register SubscribeLog in World politics Business & finance Economics Science & technology Culture Blogs Debate & discuss Audio & video Print edition You want me to leave it down here? May 4th 2013 | From the print edition Energy firms and climate change Unburnable fuel Either governments are not serious about climate change or fossil-fuel firms are overvalued MARKETS can misprice risk, as investors in subprime mortgages discovered in 2008. Several recent reports suggest that markets are now overlooking the risk of “unburnable carbon”. The share prices of oil, gas and coal companies depend in part on their reserves. The more fossil fuels a firm has underground, the more valuable its shares. But what if some of those reserves can never be dug up and burned? If governments were determined to implement their climate policies, a lot of that carbon would have to be left in the ground, says Carbon Tracker, a non-profit organisation, and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, part of the London School of Economics. Their analysis starts by estimating the amount of carbon dioxide that could be put into the TweetTweet 575 Advertisement Comment (143) Print E-mail Reprints & permissions Recent Activity Otherwordly comforts 25 people recommended this. Gastronauts on Mars 18 people recommended this. In God Some Trust 573 people recommended this. Horribly rotten, comically stupid 339 people recommended this. Like 2.4k futureproofed.com
- 26. Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble? CHINA Total GtCO2 67.46 Coal 58.69 Oil 8.46 Gas 0.31 RUSSIA Total GtCO2 252.98 Coal 160.84 Oil 75.39 Gas 16.75 USA Total GtCO2 156.49 Oil 111.68 Coal 33.83 Gas 10.98 UK Total GtCO2 105.5 Oil 51.52 Coal 49.35 Gas 4.63 CANADA Total GtCO2 27.88 Oil 19.95 Coal 6.74 Gas 1.19 AUSTRALIA Total GtCO2 21.97 Coal 18.72 Oil 2.70 Gas 0.55 INDIA Total GtCO2 12.63 Coal 12.28 Gas 0.19 Gas 0.53 ITALY Total GtCO2 8.04 Oil 7.51 BRAZIL Total GtCO2 14.63 Oil 11.45 Coal 3.01 Gas 0.17 FRANCE Total GtCO2 18.24 Oil 17.07 Gas 1.17 JAPAN Total GtCO2 11.03 Coal 8.42 Oil 2.44 Oil 0.16 Gas 0.17 SOUTH AFRICA Total GtCO2 17.96 Coal 17.96 10 | Country Coal Oil Gas Total INDONESIA 5.15 - - 5.15 GREECE 4.56 - - 4.56 SPAIN - 2.96 0.29 3.25 SINGAPORE 3.21 - - 3.21 THAILAND 2.55 0.33 0.12 3.0 NORWAY - 2.23 0.25 2.48 GERMANY 1.94 - 0.05 1.99 ARGENTINA - 1.68 0.12 1.8 KOREA - 1.56 - 1.56 AUSTRIA - 1.02 0.06 1.08 CZECH REPUBLIC 1.07 - - 1.07 NETHERLANDS 0.62 - - 0.62 SWEDEN - 0.47 0.00 0.47 COLOMBIA - 0.35 0.01 0.36 MEXICO 0.26 - - 0.26 HUNGARY - 0.19 0.01 0.2 CROATIA - 0.17 - 0.17 Distribution of fossil fuel reserves between stock exchanges Fig.4 CHINA Total GtCO2 67.46 Coal 58.69 Oil 8.46 Gas 0.31 RUSSIA Total GtCO2 252.98 Coal 160.84 Oil 75.39 Gas 16.75 USA Total GtCO2 156.49 Oil 111.68 Coal 33.83 Gas 10.98 UK Total GtCO2 105.5 Oil 51.52 Coal 49.35 Gas 4.63 CANADA Total GtCO2 27.88 Oil 19.95 Coal 6.74 Gas 1.19 AUSTRALIA Total GtCO2 21.97 Coal 18.72 Oil 2.70 Gas 0.55 INDIA Total GtCO2 12.63 Coal 12.28 Gas 0.19 Gas 0.53 ITALY Total GtCO2 8.04 Oil 7.51 BRAZIL Total GtCO2 14.63 Oil 11.45 Coal 3.01 Gas 0.17 FRANCE Total GtCO2 18.24 Oil 17.07 Gas 1.17 JAPAN Total GtCO2 11.03 Coal 8.42 Oil 2.44 Oil 0.16 Gas 0.17 SOUTH AFRICA Total GtCO2 17.96 Coal 17.96 | 11 futureproofed.com
- 28. Everything is oil Production Raw materials Food Logistics futureproofed.com(From “Oil” — Edward Burtinsky)
- 29. futureproofed.com(From “Oil” — Edward Burtinsky)
- 30. futureproofed.com(From “Oil” — Edward Burtinsky)
- 31. futureproofed.com(From “Oil” — Edward Burtinsky)
- 32. futureproofed.comfutureproofed.com(From “Oil” — Edward Burtinsky)
- 33. futureproofed.com(From “Oil” — Edward Burtinsky)
- 34. futureproofed.com(From “Oil” — Edward Burtinsky)
- 36. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 © BP 2012 futureproofed.com
- 37. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 © BP 2012 futureproofed.com Oil production/consumption by region
- 38. futureproofed.com Market shortfall consumption - production 7 M barrels/day
- 39. futureproofed.com This increase would be mostly driven by higher demand from non-OECD economies – in particular China and India. The expected rise in the oil price is unlikely to be smooth.
- 40. futureproofed.com Oil price Oil import Trade balance Italy’s trade balance
- 41. futureproofed.com 1999 2011 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 0 25 50 75 100 Tradebalancebn$ Oilprice$/barrel Oil price Oil import Trade balance Italy’s trade balance
- 42. futureproofed.com 1999 2011 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 0 25 50 75 100 20 $/barrel 100 $/barrel Tradebalancebn$ Oilprice$/barrel Oil price Oil import Trade balance Italy’s trade balance
- 43. futureproofed.com 1999 2011 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 0 25 50 75 100 20 $/barrel 100 $/barrel -12 bn $ -55 bn $ Tradebalancebn$ Oilprice$/barrel Oil price Oil import Trade balance Italy’s trade balance
- 44. futureproofed.com 1999 2011 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 0 25 50 75 100 20 $/barrel 100 $/barrel -12 bn $ -55 bn $ 22 bn $ -36 bn $ Tradebalancebn$ Oilprice$/barrel Oil price Oil import Trade balance Italy’s trade balance
- 45. futureproofed.com International Energy Agency (feb 2013) Southern Europe = same position as Italy Oil import bill EU: $ 668 bln 2013
- 46. futureproofed.com International Energy Agency: “The existing fields are declining so sharply that in order to stay where we are in terms of production levels in the next 25 years, we have to find and develop four new Saudi Arabias.” (40 M barrels/day) No cheap oil left
- 47. futureproofed.com German army “Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen” Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert - Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit - • Oil decline results in shrinking logistics • Governments are not prepared to deal with shortage of vital goods • Impoverishment will lead to extremism and domestic conflicts
- 48. futureproofed.com German army “Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen” Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert - Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit - Proposed solutions—focus on principles of: • Resilience, • Flexibility, • Self-sufficiency
- 50. futureproofed.com “The purpose of the corporation needs to be redefined as creating shared value. Creating economic value in way that also creates value for society.” Michael Porter Harvard Business School
- 52. futureproofed.com Reducing haul km’s • Closed loop economy • 3D printing • Bundling flows (“carpooling for cargo”)
- 53. futureproofed.com Increase efficiency of flows • Reduce volume & weight of goods • Reward efficiency & productivity gains (loading, routing & driving) • Light, aerodynamic trucks with low rolling resistance • APU’s or electric parking spaces
- 55. futureproofed.comMario Fleurinck, ceo Melotte
- 56. futureproofed.com From globalized analog production to direct digital local production Superior properties with dramatically reduced time, costs, carbon and resource use. MELOTTE
- 57. futureproofed.com From globalized analog production to direct digital local production Superior properties with dramatically reduced time, costs, carbon and resource use. MELOTTE
- 60. futureproofed.com P+CIRCULAIREECONOMIE 4 Zesgeda 1 Resten tapijt,van nylon. 2 Het vezel uit tapijt (fluff),losgemaakt van de bitumen ondergrond. 3 Herwonnen nylon teruggebracht tot de oervorm:caprolactam. daanteve 4 Gerecycled nylon als nieuw garen Econyl voor tapijtindustrie. futureproofed.com
- 61. futureproofed.com Zesgeda 3 Herwonnen nylon teruggebracht tot de oervorm:caprolactam. 5 VAN GRONDSTOF TOT GRONDSTOF daanteverwisselingen 4 Gerecycled nylon als nieuw garen Econyl voor tapijtindustrie. 5 Garen tot een superdunne mat geweven, met een minimum aan materiaal. 6 Nieuw product:Biosfera van InterfaceFLOR, op dit moment de duurzaamste vloertegel. futureproofed.com
- 62. futureproofed.com Surface Cleaning Solutions Dry Cleaning Solutions Surface Cleaning Solutions Dry Cleaning Solutions Satisfying High Industry Requirements Customers demand high quality, cost effective results that comply with regulatory and environmental requirements. The SAFE-TAINER™ System is a sustainable closed-loop solution for: Dry cleaning Surface cleaning Dow branded chlorinated and non-chlorinated solvents are supplied and the waste is returned for recycling in the SAFE-TAINER™ System. Solutions and Applications ABOUT US SOLUTIONS & APPLICATIONS NEWS & MEDIA DOWNLOADS & LINKS WHERE TO BUY CONTACT US MY.WEBSERVICE SAFECHEM Europe Home Privacy Statement | Terms of Use | Accessibility Statement | Site Map Copyright © The Dow Chemical Company (1995-2013). All Rights Reserved. ®™* Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company ("Dow") or an affiliated company of Dow ®Responsible Care is a registered service mark of the American Chemistry Council Europe (Change to North America) Search SAFECHEM Closed-Loop Solutions futureproofed.com
- 66. futureproofed.comRoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon EuropeRoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMO Compared to current transmission infrastructure, the requirements for transmission capacity between the regions defined in the technical report are significant. INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS futureproofed.com
- 67. futureproofed.comRoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMORoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe EU GRID ICONOGRAPHY
- 68. futureproofed.com Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMORoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
- 69. futureproofed.com 0 80 160 240 320 400 2007 2010 400 342 (bn$) 400 bn$ Worldwide fossil fuel ‘subsidy’ 2 0 1 1 WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 70. futureproofed.com 0 2 3 5 6 Renewable Fossil 5.6 1.5 bn€ the Netherlands: 4 times more ‘subsidy’ for fossil than for renewable energy (Ecofys, 2011)
- 73. futureproofed.com You, as professionals, voters, consumers can rise to the occasion and help shape the next industrial revolution.
- 76. futureproofed.com ... and change the world. futureproofed.com