Risk management is an important, if not the most important element of project management. By dealing with possible problems and chances the right actions can be planned in due time. This is true especially for SEO projects where lots of risks and chances are waiting for the project stakeholders. In this presentation I give an overview over a risk management process model and the tools that can be used for risk management in SEO projects

1. Risk management in SEO projects
Introduction and process model
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2. Risk-boosting factors in all projects
• Lack f i
L k of time, d dli
deadlines
• Bad acquisition and controlling of key performance indicators
• Insufficient project management
• Bad management of requirements and expectations
• Huge and long-lasting projects
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3. Risk-boosting factors in SEO projects
• Wrong expectations about SEO success
W i b
• No ex-ante planning of SEO success factors
• SEO conducted without project management
• SEO manager in role of project manager without having project
management experience
t i
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4. Risk definition
Risk definition: uncertain event that effects one or more project
objectives. Notice: effects can be positive or negative!
Example: The outage of an important software developer can cause a
p g p p
two-week delay of project completion
Risks consist of different components:
• Risk event with probability of risk event
• Risk impact with probability of risk impact
• Expected gain or loss calculated from expected effect multiplied
with probability of risk event and risk impact
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5. Risk components
Risk event Impact Total gain / loss
Probability of Probability of
risk event risk impact
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6. Typical
T i l SEO risk-events
i k t
• Google updates search algorithm unexpectedly
G l d h l ih dl
• Important backlink is being devaluated
• SEO black hat methods are discovered by Google
• Wrong implementation of „rel canonical“ attribute
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7. Typical impacts of SEO risks
T i li t f i k
• Website
W b i receives a penalty and i d
i l d is downgraded
d d
• Multiple pages vanish from index
• Domain is void due to black hat methods
• Client won‘t pay because he is not satisfied with results
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8. Risk t
Ri k categories
i
• Known risks that can b anticipated. E
K i k h be i i d Example: competitors f ll
l i follow
their own SEO strategy and bias succes of your SEO efforts
• Unknown risks that cannot be anticipated Example: change of
anticipated.
Google search algorithm that leads to declined ranking
• Scope risks (caused by frequent change requests or defects)
p ( y q g q )
• Schedule risks (delays, dependencies, wrong estimates or multiple
critical paths)
• Resource-based risks (outsourcing, distributed teams, integration
of new team members)
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9. Multiple critical paths in projects
Critical path 1
Task A Task B Task C
Task D Task E Task F Task G Task H Task I
Task J Task K Task L Task M
Critical path 2
A critical path d t
iti l th determines th d ti of th project. If th
i the duration f the j t there i
is
more than one critical path in the project, the risk of a higher duration increases.
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10. Risk management benefits
• Future problems are recognized and can b eliminated i d
F bl i d d be li i d in due
time
• Incentive to deal with project more intensely
• Incentive to deal with project stakeholders more intensely
• Promotion of censorious thi ki i project t
P ti f i thinking in j t team
• More successful projects
• Risk management as a team building activity
• Continous improvement of project management
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11. Context of risk management
Web Stakeholder Software
development management development
Estimation and
Knowledge
controlling of effort Risk management
management
Requirements IT and technical
……
management administration
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12. Elements of risk management process
Risk management
Risk identification Risk analysis
planning
Risk monitoring and
Risk prioritisation Risk solution
controlling
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13. Risk management process
Identify risks
ment planning
Analyse risks
Check for new risks
Risk managem
Prioritize i k
P i iti risks
m
Risk solution
Risk
monitoring
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14. Risk
Ri k management planning
t l i
• Describes th risk management process i th project
D ib the i k t in the j t
• What has to be communicated?
• What kind of meetings are needed?
• Which tools, documents etc. are used?
• First estimate of overall project risk
• Definition of risk categories
• Definition of key figures (e.g. for risk probability and impact)
• Schedule planning
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15. Risk identification (1/2)
• Start risk id ifi i as soon as possible
S i k identification ibl
• Iterative process. Repeat throughout the whole project
• Should be part of every status meeting
• Opens out into risk index
• Risk identification tools and techniques:
• Brainstorming, expert reviews
• Checklists
• Document analysis, analysis of assumptions
y y p
 Important: include all project areas, respect positive and negative
risks!
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16. Risk identification (2/2)
• First
Fi counteraction can b planned while
i be l d hil
conducting risk identification already
• Most urgent risks are addressed first
• Not later than kickoff the risk index must exist
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17. Risk analysis
• Qualitative
Q lit ti vs. quantitative risk analysis
tit ti i k l i
• Qualitative: classify risk by severity: „low“,
„
„middle“, „high“
,„ g
• Quantitative: detailed calculation of probability
and impact
• Qualitative analysis is mainly used for risk
prioritisation
• Risk analysis and risk prioritisation can be done
together
• In order to avoid arbitrariness and subjective
influence hen
infl ence when defining risk probabilit it makes
probability
sense to use pre-defined rankings like: 0-10%,
11-50 %, 51-80%, 81-100 %.
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18. Risk analysis: tools and methods
• Risk
Ri k matrix (
t i (qualitative risk analysis)
lit ti i k l i )
• PERT (Program Evolution and Review Technique)
 comparing optimistic and pessimistic estimations
p g p p
(quantitative risk analysis)
• Monte Carlo Analysis (automated and iterative
calculation of different project results shows
probability distribution)
• Expert reviews
p
• Interviews
• p
Workshops
 The latter four used for quantitative and qualitative
analysis as well
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19. Risk matrix
high
Probability
low Impact
I t high
Risk severity
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20. Risk prioritisation
• After determining risk probability and i
Af d i i i k b bili d impact the
h
order of handling risks has to be defined
• Concentrate on a set of most important risks  top
top-
10 list
• Marginal cost for solving an additional risk have to
g g
be equal or smaller than marginal loss caused by
this additional risk
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21. Risk solution
• Define
D fi counter measurements f every prioritized
for i ii d
risk. Decide between actions concerning risk events
and actions concerning risk impact.
• Define responsibilities
• Define those risks that no actions will be taken for
(active / passive risk acceptance)
• Update project plan
• Create fallback-plan with actions to be taken if initial
actions fail.
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22. Risk solution - strategies
Risk Chance Example
Avoid Exploit Remove or add certain
tasks from / to project plan
Mitigate Emphasize Influence risk probability
and / or risk impact
Transmit Share Involve additional players
to handle risk or chance
Active: build reserves for
Acceptance (active oder passive) the case of risk occurrence
Passive: action is defined
after risk occurrence first.
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23. Risk monitoring and controlling
• Check
Ch k status of risks continously. Ri k status should
f i k i l Risk h ld
be part of every status meeting.
• Are there any risks that can be removed from risk
index because they are no longer relevant or
haven‘t occurred?
• Are there new risks to be analyzed?
• Has there been a change of risk priorities? Is the
top-list of risks still up-to-date?
• Have the chosen risk solutions been appropriate?
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24. Resumé
•Risk management important in projects – especially when doing SEO
•Risk management needs to be planned
Risk
•Risk management is an iterative process
Contact information:
SEO Südwest
Christian Kunz
http://www.seo-suedwest.de
info@seo-suedwest.de
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25. List of references
• Smith, Preston G. / Merritt, Guy M. : Proactive
Smith Preston G / Merritt Guy M : Proactive Risk Management Productivity Press 2002
Management. Productivity Press 2002
• Heldman, Kim: Project Manager‘s Spotlight on Risk Management. Sybex 2005
• Kendrick, Tom: Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure‐Proofing Your Project.
Amacom 2003
• Wideman, Max R.: Project and Program Risk Management: A Guide to Managing Project Risks and
Opportunities. Project Management Institute 1992
• Vose, David: Risk Analysis, A Quantitative Guide, Second Edition. John Wiley
Vose David: Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Second Edition John Wiley and Sons (UK) 2002
(UK) 2002
• Schuyler, John: Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Second Edition. Project Management Institute
2001
• Mulcahy, Rita: PMP Exam Prep: Rita‘s Course in a Book for Passing the PMP Exam, Fifth Edition. RMX
Publications 2005
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