SXSW 2017 - Trends and Trepidation
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This document summarizes key trends and issues discussed at SXSW 2017. The top trends included mobile messaging continuing to evolve as a major marketing channel, the ongoing evolution of video consumption and creation, and virtual and augmented reality still being in the early adoption phase and facing challenges around cost and user experience. Other trends focused on connected digital lives, healthcare innovation, ethics around data use, voice interfaces, artificial intelligence, polarization in public discourse, and concerns about short-term thinking. The document encourages identifying major trends and innovating within those areas while also considering issues like data security, accountability, and serving audience needs with useful and exciting solutions.
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SXSW 2017 - Trends and Trepidation
- 1. SXSW 2017 TRENDS AND TREPIDATION
- 3. A lot of technology is still in ‘early adopter’ phase
- 4. Identify the big trends Innovate and experiment with those
- 5. Key Trends • Mobile Messaging • The Evolution of Video • VR/AR – don’t believe the hype • Connected Lives • DigiHealth • Ethics 2.0 • Voice as the UI • Under the surface of AI • Polivation and short termism
- 7. Mobile Messaging is the next marketing goldmine
- 8. Effective and common chatbot utility will be defined by the end of 2018
- 14. Video consumption and creation video has evolved in the last 6 months
- 15. 360 is not VR. VR is hard. And expensive.
- 16. VR / AR – Don’t believe the hype?
- 17. If 2016 was a breakout year for AR and VR 2017 could be make or break…
- 18. It feels like VR has gone slightly off track…
- 20. AR is going to improve our lives in many ways.
- 21. The future of VR is storytelling. And great stories are shareable.
- 22. Wearables are finally adding value
- 25. How safe is your data in the IoT?
- 26. You will own very little rather license more.
- 27. We now need to consider the serious security concerns IOT has on our lives
- 28. A step too far?
- 30. The defeat of cancer is the only bipartisan issue left in the United States of America
- 33. Gimmicks are causing us to be reckless with data.
- 34. Restoring our faith in humanity
- 35. Voice as the UI
- 36. The way we interact with devices is evolving
- 37. Why now?
- 38. Why voice?
- 39. But, voice-first UI is not without its limitations…
- 40. Under the surface of AI
- 42. 1.Desire to centralise power 2.Tracking populations and demonising outsiders 3.Never being held to account
- 43. Predictive policing on trial
- 45. “Try explaining to a judge the difference between Tetris and Bioshock when he can’t open his email”
- 46. Office of American Innovation “leaner and meaner”
- 47. The dangers of short- termism
- 48. Ownership and responsibility for data
- 49. We didn’t have time for…
- 50. “Just because something is cool and interesting, doesn't make it important.”
- 51. What’s important to your target audience? What can you develop that will be both useful and exciting?
- 52. Questions?
Notas do Editor
- The newest form of Dark Social is mobile messaging. Dark social having x3 impact of Facebook newsfeeds.
- Keeping within the vein of dark social and mobile messaging a session lead by Vivian Rosenthal of mobile messaging agency Snaps in the US Larger audience than social media 98% open rates in the US 40% of US check messaging before any other apps on their phone iMessage = 200,000 messages per second What opportunities exist for brands: Chatbots Branded Keyboards iMessage Apps
- Chatbots have come of age but what’s the true value to brands and businesses? Ultimately there’s a great opportunity for Chatbots to usurp mobile apps, google search and potentially even people… Chatbot utility Key consideration for businesses We need to be careful not to become lazy and offload tasks we don’t want to deal with to bots. Four key areas that bots are being used most at the moment: Customer service Can be a heated moment that needs human interaction and bots or AI can’t always be trusted here to deliver an effective solution beyond regurgitated phrases and cyclicar logic That said some elements like opening hours, store locations and contact details could easily be funneled through chatbot technology E-Commerce, Entertainment, Companionship and Support
- There was an ongoing theme at this year’s SXSW: Now that we’ve developed all of these interesting and creative technologies how can we use them for the betterment of society? So it should be no surprise that when you consider the current political landscape that immigration is a topic. The panel discussion Can I Order a Drink via my T-Shirt? Touched on the huge societal beneficial impacts offered by bots. James Thompson of Diageo NA discussed Visa Bot as the perfect marriage between tech and social purpose and app designed to help immigrants within the United States in their Visa applications and matters of legal residence.
- E-Commerce has huge opportunity in the Chatbot space and we heard how Nike Jordan and Marriott Hotels in the U.S. both used chatbot technology to engage with consumers in ongoing conversation on social to build affinity and drive conversions. Shopsping created an automated personal shopping assistant that had their entire catalog uploaded to the functionality of the FB chatbot allowing for clever searching, specification and utimate conversions. We’re moving out of the browse mobile, purchase desktop. Consumers faith in mobile shopping has increased and comes at a perfect time to driving this type of interaction. BIG question though – WHO DO WE HOLD TO ACCOUNT THE ACTIONS OF AI? Other chatbots of note include: Hendrick’s Adopt a Cucumber Chatbot, TransferWise, Stoptober Bot
- With the advent of the iMessage App Store: Opportunity for brands to created branded sticker packs Increase awareness in every day life for consumers Dunkin Donuts key takeaways – Consumer insights for creative Link with existing mobile apps Do fewer, better Media to aide discovery
- Branded keyboards The Love Your Curls branded emoji keyboard tapped into a key audience insight – no curly headed emojis To build brand love with their shampoo customers Dove helped solve this problem (Emojis originally from Japan so only straight hair) The Dove keyboard earned the brand 1billion impressions globally according to Mindshare’s Alana Diehl
- - VR and AR have backed themselves into a corner – and only have themselves to blame.
- Video is evolving: 360 cameras were everywhere at SXSW. At one session someone held this up and the speaker thought they were asking a question. Distinct lack of selfie-sticks. Is this the future? VR is becoming more familiar 360 is not VR – 360 is easy VR is not Best in class doesn’t exist yet Infancy of landscape – good knowledge sharing community Worth investing in proper specialised VR directors / production teams
- VR pods were everywhere at SXSW Motion added next level to VR experiences but it’s not the VR that we’ll have in our homes Safety concerns when using VR need to be addressed Facebook Oculus’ VR For Good Project that included – Spectrum Laboratory allowed users to experience autism as a child Immersive narrative is key for a good VR and considering the 360 spectrum at all times not just focusing on 2D view with 3D surrounds - Weaker example came from The Mummy VR
- - VR and AR have backed themselves into a corner – and only have themselves to blame.
- 2016 at SXSW marked a breakout year for VR and AR – big announcements from most of the big players in this field Expectations at an all time high – examples of VR use popping up all over the place This was backed up with predictions that VR / AR could be a “$150 billion business by 2020” However, we seem to have hit a plateau where VR / AR could be accused of stagnating – 2017 is arguably therefore a make or break year…
- And there’s also too much of this Not everyone wants to pull on a haptic suit every time they experience VR Too much emphasis on finding the WOW factor for VR
- AR is not much different, Pokemon Go marked a landmark moment for AR – mass global participation in the use of AR functionality But what was the follow-up? How has this been turned into something genuinely useful Niantic rant… Where is the application of AR to create smart cities and urbanised spaces?
- AR is entering mass market. Pokemon Go lauded as first outing of AR in gamification. Lots more practical uses that we witnessed at SXSW beyond using a phone screen or hololens glasses Implications for every facet of life Motoring – HUD from startups like Navdy Educational – National Geographic’s usage was inspiring Medical – Understanding bodily functions Expensive show pieces at present Opportunity to enhance every day life
- To succeed in VR we need to take a step back and think about what it is that makes VR and AR special Immersive storytelling As a medium for storytelling, immersing people into situations or environments they otherwise wouldn’t be able to experience, the power of VR is huge Great stories will always be shareable, and this is the key takeout for brands By all means consider VR, it has huge potential – but only if you keep things simple instead of looking for the WOW moment What story do you want to tell? How can you use VR to tell it in a different, more immersive way. E.g….
- Wearables are starting to add proper value to our lives From Visa’s NFC payment through sunglasses to Snapchat’s Snapbot wearables were visible around Austin What’s more exciting is the innovation in wearables and how they’re getting smarter in their connection
- Google’s and Levi’s Jacquard shows real sophistication in wearables Responsive threads woven into jacket denim Bluetooth transmitting button New gesturesfor phone users including: brush away, brush toward, tap, double-tap Application reaches far beyond clothing – upholstery, bedding, limits are endless Jacquard is expected to go to market Sept/October 2017 with price tag from $350-400USD
- The Internet of Things You Don’t Own Panel When you buy items now from your smartphone to your coffee machine you don’t really own them Licensing the software – Digital Rights Management exists even within our coffee makers Keurig example that tied users into using expensive brand coffee pods Big conversation in the US in relation to John Deere tractors and the software that power them Apple keenly interested as it effects them too: Apple TOS doc is 20,000 words – longer than Hamlet but surrenders RTR Nebraska, Wyoming and Kansas currently considering bills around the entitlement to repair your own machine – customise as required
- But how far is too far? Cloud Pets seemed like a neat idea, but as Aaron Perzanowski from the Case Western Reserve University explained turned out to be lacking security. The toys allowed parents and children to connect via a Wi-Fi enabled stuffed animals to send messages while Mammy or Daddy is away for business. The $40 cuddly CloudPets feature microphones and speakers, and connect to the internet via an iOS or Android app on a nearby smartphone or tablet. Families can use the fake animals to exchange voice messages between their children, friends, and relatives. Due to a hole in the authentication over 2million messages between parents and their kids were hacked and held to ransom. So how safe is this new Internet of Things?.... Well.
- How far is too far? We-connect long-distance connected sex toy that tracks usage, speed and all sorts of intimate details against a personalised account. Consider if this information got hacked? Partnerships / transparency and trust is key for strategising IOT for Diageo GoogleX tech moving into areas where expertise already exists – e.g. auto industry Tech company and government – pushes boundaries of comfort zones Transparency is important in the new landscape of wearables to mitigate privacy concerns and fear of data usage
- But what about where we need to share information more freely? VP Biden discussed the challenges of the US Health System and the Biden Foundation The Cancer Moonshot features a Public Cancer Database It’s been accessed 200m times Cloud storage donated by Amazon Cloud Services Aim at SXSW was to reach out to tech innovators to help make this a reality
- Health is the biggest opportunity for wearable tech but needs to be accessible for all. Wifi Connected Blood Pressure Monitor and New Braille smartwatch launched. However new ethics must be thought through… Penn State University research used Twitter firehouse data to determine likelihood of heart disease for users based on lifestyle App to determine blood alcohol levels – Diageo to disable cars to prevent drink driving. Should they have access / permission to do this? Ethical dilemma even when trying to do good. People need to be allowed to own their own data. Vinome – DNA analysis
- Other health and wellness innovations we spotted at SXSW included the Panasonic House where they teamed up with the Parsons College of Art and Design. Three examples included: Sleepwise – wearable health and wellness product to assist in comfortable nights sleep Interacts with your connected home devices to control light / heat / noise in the home and monitor movements during the night CalorieCo – a microwave sized device that can scan loose foodstuffs with an infrared laser and identify the amount of calories / carbs / protein contained within and then synch with diet tracking apps to log food intake Digital Cobbler – a device that scanned your foot in 3D and then custom 3D printed footwear specifically matching the contours of your feet to aid any mobility issues or special requirements
- One key topic discussed at length in the health space was Innovation outpacing Legislation: Vinome – a starup from California taking DNA samples to recommend wine MyAncestry.com Bio-security needs a security update panel speaker Ed You from the FBI discussed the challenges around: 3D printing of diseases as a bioterrorism risk DNA based security risks – retina, biometric scanning Need for legislation around DNA Data protection to catch up Onus on industry to use caution and help bring public service on the journey when developing new tech UK is country with highest “Views are my own” on Twitter so we’re used to usual data protection but this is a new battlefield
- Social inclusion and diversity in tech: To pivot from the worrying doom and gloom of bioterrorism there were great examples and a swell towards how we can use our new innovations for good including: The Human Rights Foundation asking for USB donations to smuggle content from the outside world into DPRK North Korea in a project they’re calling Flash Drives For Freedom Largely the content featured is soap operas showing romance and joy – two emotions not present in North Korean lives And in an enlightening session on How an Emoji Becomes an Emoji Jenny 8 Lee explained to us the story of a 19 Year Old non-muslim German girl working on the world’s first Hijab emoji submission showing inclusiveness and racial diversity.
- We’re currently experiencing an evolution in way we communicate with computers and smart devices As humans we’ve always aspired to communicate with computers through speech – this is something that is evident from sci-fi (Hal, Jarvis etc.) Evolution of User Interfaces – from computer language to human speech Graphical UI > Conversational UI > Voice UI > No UI Today, most of us become bilingual from a early age - we quickly pick up both computer & human language capabilities The drive to No UI is to move beyond this, to rely only on spoken natural language to communicate with a computer - i.e. no translation being required between human and computer Given this evolutionary process is tied to the technology available, the process began on a graphical level with screens, keyboard and mouse Graphical UI doesn’t come naturally like voice, but screens are a valuable resource for sharing information - they allow us to see a large array of information and give us more choice The move to Conversational UI came with the arrival of basic AI assistants like Siri and Cortana – moving from purely Graphical UI to the ability to ask very basic questions of your device, however still heavily reliant on a screen Conversational UI gained traction in the shadow of app fatigue – the fact that apps no longer provide an efficient enough UX for us The last 12-months have seen us take the first tentative steps into Voice UI – the manifestation of this being voice-first home assistants such as Amazon Echo and Google Home These are currently the closest examples to the No-UI paradigm (pure voice input/voice output)
- Why now? Technological advances and Big Data Voice-first UI is finally taking off because of advances in the technology used to train deep neural networks – enabling them to take and understand much, much larger sets of speech data As a result, devices suddenly became much better at identifying words from the sounds of our voices, stitching together meaning and speaking back to us. Less raging at Siri – more thanking Alexa With continuing advances in machine learning, word error rate continues to decline and our voice-first devices continue to improve Also, the more users these devices get, the more data will be sent to Amazon and Google’s data engineers and the better the devices will become Reasons for acceleration - Advances in speech technology + Internet of Things = Acceleration Also, there’s gold in them there hills - the artificial intelligence market is expected to grow from $400 Million in 2014 to $5 Billion by 2020. Hence GAFA involvement – Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon
- Why the move to voice? Speech came first before writing, we’re made for speech – speech is an innate ability as opposed to a learnt one Humans have always dreamed about speaking with computers in our natural language Voice is a logical next step in ‘Anticipatory Design’ Amazon Echo and Google Home have given us a taste of what this could mean - ownership predicted to quadruple to 33 million in 2017, with 30% of device-based interactions by voice in 2018 Why? - Voice captures a much more textured view of who we are – a 3-D view of you based on your behaviours This is where personalisation comes in: Successful personal assistants need to be able to seamlessly stitch your life together - to form this textured view of who you are Personalisation is at the heart of this for three reasons: Compounding benefits of personalisation - each data point our assistant collects is a personal investment, incentive to choose a device and keep it close Reconciling and prioritising different needs - having one personal assistant to stitch our fragmented digital identities together, reconcile differences and prioritise needs > many personal assistants to further fragment our digital identities, create further differences and compete over needs Emotional attachment - our tendency to anthropomorphise means we develop an attachment to our assistant, making us more loyal to it – pet dog example
- Physical limitations 1. Usage – at this stage, voice is more convenient in the home for three reasons: Ecosystem – at the moment most connected devices (lights, speakers, refrigerators) are for the home Convenience - the home is the place where you’re least likely to have your smartphone handy at all times, most likely to just use your voice Privacy - you’re much more like to speak to a voice-assistant inside the comfort of your own home 2. Screen reliance We still use voice-first devices as an extension of our screens - music, lights, timers When you want to up-skill a voice-first device the process remains screen-based – creating a disconnect between using a voice-first devices and downloading new skills Language limitations Three primary reasons for the setbacks – all relate to the question of what makes a conversation? Dialogue - conversing, not commanding Range - weaving between domains Emotion - understanding and expressing emotion But… Dialogue Today, voice interactions are often limited to one-sentence or command utterances. But, advances in 'Deep Reinforcement Learning' have the potential to improve and lengthen human-machine dialogue. Range Today, the best dialogue systems are limited to a specific domain - i.e. booking flights, ordering a taxi, completing shopping orders etc. But, advances in 'Deep Transfer Learning' and 'General AI' will improve “open-domain” dialogue - making voice-first dialogue systems smarter about a wider range of topics and capable of contextual reasoning over the course of a long conversation. Emotion Today, we don’t incorporate emotion into our voice-first devices. But, with advances in affective computing, voice can consistently recognise and generate prosody - the patterns of stress and intonation in a language. In conclusion, voice as a UI is getting there – but it’s not quite there yet
- We’ve already heard how voice is going to be one of the big areas of growth in tech It’s seamless and convenient, but how transparent is it? How much do we know about what it is listening? WTF IS AN ALGORITHM There have been isolated reports of Alexa / Home responding when it has not been commanded "Do you work for the CIA?" Google got into trouble for including ads for Beauty and the Beast alongside people’s ‘My Day’ update (weather, calendar, etc.) Google denied it was an ad to The Verge. Twice. This represents one of the areas of concern people have around current AI
- Kate Crawford, Dark Days: AI and the rise of fascism AI is good at centralising power Facebook is the default muslim registry in the world Even if you claim to be a muslim, machine learning will spot you’re not really // Based on FB likes, we can predict your religion based to an accuracy of 86% // Cambridge University Never being held to account. Who is to stop Google or Amazon doing these things? This is a benign example, but no policy (more of that later) exists. IT can create distance from the impact of your decisions AI systems are not transparent, they give a false sense of accuracy and neutrality
- http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/19/12552384/chicago-heat-list-tool-failed-rand-test http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/19/12552384/chicago-heat-list-tool-failed-rand-test the city’s futuristic "heat list" — an algorithm-generated list identifying people most likely to be involved in a shooting. the list’s algorithm identifies people by looking not only at arrests, but also whether someone is socially connected with a known shooter or shooting victim. The program also has a kind of pre-crime feature in which police visit people on the list before any crime has been committed. RAND discovered that CPD wasn’t using the list as a way to provide social services; instead, CPD was using it as a way to target people for arrest.
- A lot of talk at SXSW about how Government and policy is not keeping pace with technology - Particularly with new US administration Terah Lyons, Whitehouse Office of Science and Technology: Creating a friendly policy environment // Govt invests 1/8th of what industry invests in AI Not appointed a director for the Office of Science and Technology Policy, given that they haven’t appointed a chief technology officer for the United States
- https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/26/trump-to-create-white-house-office-for-american-innovation-to-be-headed-by-kushner/ More public private partnerships were talked about This office seems to be more about outsourcing departments that are difficult to fix, e.g. Veteran’s Affairs Panels on health where Government representatives are open to pitches from technology companies to help them with problems they can’t solve: e.g. inaccurate self reporting on diet and alcohol // using data to alleviate the ‘burdens of disease’ // helping kids meet physical activity guidelines
- Issue with Governments is they are often short term and prone to knee jerk reactions Big fear around AI is that it could get shut down following a public outcry – why the narrative we’ve talked about is quite dangerous “At the moment, I think it's certainly as big a risk that we have a GMO moment, and there's a powerful reaction against the technology which prevents us from reaping the benefits, which are enormous. I think that's as big a risk as the risks from the technologies themselves.” Stephen Cave, Director of The Centre for the Future of Intelligence at Cambridge University This is also true of education and research – Investment is going into short term projects that generate immediate results Tech and AI in particular has a white male problem, and a skills shortage Governments should be looking at investing more in STEAM, encouraging more women to get involved to redress the balance
- The debates around encryption and responsibilities ladder up to a topic that we’ll explore in even more detail in the full session. Firstly, who’s responsibility is it to ensure that the data owned by GAFA etc. that is powering its AI and machine learning technology is secure Who’s jurisdiction does it fall under? Where are the standards for companies to adhere to? Where are the checks and balances, beyond sustained media campaigns that demand action DARPA has been doing some work around a letter grade (A, B, C,) ranking the security and the use of personal data Platforms didn’t know that surveillance companies were using APIs Geofeedia, Snaptrends, Babel Street. Stopped it, but it’s a grey area Secondly, at the moment we sign-up once for most online services, and agree to something without reading it; as companies use our data and map our activity for even more complex purposes. Again, where are rules or policies that manage this? Dieter Zetsche, Daimler AG / Mercedes Benz - “People just need accept that we need their data” Cory Docttorrow - “We’re footing the bill for our own surveillance” // who is enforcing transparency on companies? Going the other way, i.e. no encryption but full transparency won’t work either. But in an age of increasing threats of cyber security
- White House VR Car in a vending machine for Carvana Painting with cold air using thermochromatic paint Facebox PoweredByPaper 3D printing DubSmash booths