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Turning Operational outcome
metrics into actionable
predictive forecasting model
Shyam Desigan
CFO & Sr. VP of IT, American Academy
of Physician Assistants


1   © 2013 Proformative
The second-fastest-growing health profession in the next
decade


                                86,500
    Number of certified PAs in 2012, according to the
    National Commission on Certification of Physician
                        Assistants
                               83,600
                          Employment in 2010
                          • 108,300
               • Projected employment in 2020

2   © 2013 Proformative
86,500
    Number of certified PAs in 2012, according to the
    National Commission on Certification of Physician
                        Assistants
                               83,600
                          Employment in 2010
                          • 108,300
               • Projected employment in 2020

3   © 2013 Proformative
Membership


                             43,495
      Number of AAPA Members
                              31,756
                              PA Members

                             • 11,739
                          • PA Student Members

4   © 2013 Proformative
Top 4 Primary Work Settings for a PA


                          • Hospitals 39.4%
                          • Single-Specialty Physician Groups 19.7%
                          • Solo Physician Practice 11%
                          • Multi-Specialty Physician Group 9.5%




5   © 2013 Proformative
Top 3 Primary PA Specialties


                          •Family medicine 24.8%
                          • Other Surgical sub specialties 23.2%
                          • Internal Medicine sub specialties 10.3%




6   © 2013 Proformative
The Forecasting Challenge
                     • Can you gather all your data in one place, so you can analyze it?

                     • What are the revenue and expense drivers?

                     • Can you query the data and see immediate results?
    ERP                                                                                                Databases
                     • What are the operating dependencies?

                     • Can line managers leverage BI to drive operational changes and can Finance
                       quantify the impact of these variables?

                     • Is it fast to deploy and affordable?


     CRM                                                                                            Spreadsheets
                            SCM                          CPM




7         © 2013 Proformative
Business Intelligence




                                                                         Business
                 Monitoring                Reporting                   Intelligence
             What is happening?            What happened?



                         Corporate
                        Performance
                        Management
          Forecasting                            Analytics
  What will happen?                               Why did it happen?



                              Budgeting
                              & Planning
                               What should happen?


© 2013 Proformative
Better BI & FP&A In the Cloud augments limited flexibility with
existing systems
          Low entry cost
                 and no
        requirements for
                 capital
            expenditure

 Rapid deployment
 and self-service; no
  requirement for IT
        involvement

     Integrates securely and
        easily with any other
       application, platform,
                environment


   © 2013 Proformative
Adaptive Planning Analytics Platform




  © 2013 Proformative
Analyze revenue and expense drivers




  © 2013 Proformative
Drill-Down into KPIs




  © 2013 Proformative
What-If Scenarios




  © 2013 Proformative
Why Visualization?




  © 2013 Proformative
Highly Visual Graphics to Aid in Quick Understanding
Revenue Trend             On Time Delivery   New Sales Pipeline




Incident Type             Production Trend   Financial Status




    © 2013 Proformative
Visualize Trends




  © 2013 Proformative
Glean Insights from Dashboards
• Visualize KPIs
• Get Visual & Email Alerts
• Analyze & Perform What-If
  Scenarios
• Collaborate
• Personalize




  © 2013 Proformative
Business Discovery:
Business User-Driven BI
                                             Remixability
                    App Model               and Reassembly    Social and
                                                             Collaborative

   Insight                                                                        Mobility
 Everywhere




                          IT



                               Production                      Finance       HR
              Marketing


                                                   Sales


 © 2013 Proformative
QlikView Business Discovery Presentation Layer
                                                                           Marketing
                                                           Finance                          Operations
Presentation


                                                     Sales




                                                                                                                   QLIKVIEW
                                     Windows IIS           BUSINESS DISCOVERY APPS                                WEBSERVER   BUSINESS USERS
Application




                                                                                                                                Data / Business
                       IT Admins
                                                                                                                              Analysts Developers

                                                                      QLIKVIEW                              QVW; QVD files
                                                                       SERVER



                     QLIKVIEW                 Windows                                                                             QLIKVIEW
                    MANAGEMENT                  Based                 QLIKVIEW                                                   DEVELOPER
Data Access




                     CONSOLE                  File Share             PUBLISHER
                                              (Optional)

                                                              Custom connectors; ODBC;                                             Security
                      Third-Party                                OLEDB; QVX; XML                                                 Integration:
                      Integration:
                                                                                                                               • Windows Server
                       • Informatica                 EXCEL           SQL           SAP            ERP                           • Tivoli Software
                             • Dell                                                                                                   • IBM
                           • Boomi
                          • Sybase                                                DATA
                                                    ORACLE      SALESFORCE                    INFORMATICA
                   • and many more…                                             WAREHOUSE



                                                           OPERATIONAL DATA SOURCES
               © 2013 Proformative
© 2013 Proformative
iDiscover for AAPA




 © 2013 Proformative
AAPA – Member Geo Analysis




  © 2013 Proformative
AAPA Financial Ratio Trends




  © 2013 Proformative
SPSS Modeler for Predictive analytics




   © 2013 Proformative
Leveraging SPSS Modeler




• We utilize SPSS Modeler to create predictive models with our structured
  data, including splitting, resampling and variable creation
• Developing predictive models including decision trees, support vector machines
  and ensemble methods
• Visualization: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), and tools that persuade
• Evaluating predictive models, including viewing lift curves, variable importance
  and avoiding overfitting



   © 2013 Proformative
Leveraging SPSS Modeler

• We can apply record selection, sampling (including clustered and stratified
  sampling), merging (including inner joins, full outer joins, partial outer joins,
  and anti-joins), sorting, aggregation and balancing

• Choose from options for data restructuring, partitioning and transposition

• Select from extensive string functions: string creation, substitution, search and
  matching, whitespace removal and truncation

• Apply RFM scoring: aggregate customer transactions to provide Recency,
  Frequency, and Monetary value scores and combine these to produce a
  complete RFM analysis




   © 2013 Proformative
Modeling Algorithms
• Apriori – Popular association discovery algorithm with advanced evaluation
  functions

• Bayesian Networks – Graphical probabilistic models

• CHAID & QUEST – Decision tree algorithms including interactive tree
  building

• CARMA – Association algorithm which supports multiple consequents

• K-Means, Kohonen, Two Step, Discriminant, Support Vector Machine (SVM) –
  Clustering and segmentation algorithms

• Regression, Linear, GenLin (GLM), Generalized Linear Mixed Models
  (GLMM) – Linear equation modeling

• Time-series – Generate and automatically select time-series forecasting models



   © 2013 Proformative
&
28   © 2013 Proformative
Thank You For Attending
Turning Operational
outcome metrics into
actionable predictive
forecasting model

CPE Code For This Session:
          “___________”

29   © 2013 Proformative

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Proforma tech sfo march 2013

  • 1. Turning Operational outcome metrics into actionable predictive forecasting model Shyam Desigan CFO & Sr. VP of IT, American Academy of Physician Assistants 1 © 2013 Proformative
  • 2. The second-fastest-growing health profession in the next decade 86,500 Number of certified PAs in 2012, according to the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants 83,600 Employment in 2010 • 108,300 • Projected employment in 2020 2 © 2013 Proformative
  • 3. 86,500 Number of certified PAs in 2012, according to the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants 83,600 Employment in 2010 • 108,300 • Projected employment in 2020 3 © 2013 Proformative
  • 4. Membership 43,495 Number of AAPA Members 31,756 PA Members • 11,739 • PA Student Members 4 © 2013 Proformative
  • 5. Top 4 Primary Work Settings for a PA • Hospitals 39.4% • Single-Specialty Physician Groups 19.7% • Solo Physician Practice 11% • Multi-Specialty Physician Group 9.5% 5 © 2013 Proformative
  • 6. Top 3 Primary PA Specialties •Family medicine 24.8% • Other Surgical sub specialties 23.2% • Internal Medicine sub specialties 10.3% 6 © 2013 Proformative
  • 7. The Forecasting Challenge • Can you gather all your data in one place, so you can analyze it? • What are the revenue and expense drivers? • Can you query the data and see immediate results? ERP Databases • What are the operating dependencies? • Can line managers leverage BI to drive operational changes and can Finance quantify the impact of these variables? • Is it fast to deploy and affordable? CRM Spreadsheets SCM CPM 7 © 2013 Proformative
  • 8. Business Intelligence Business Monitoring Reporting Intelligence What is happening? What happened? Corporate Performance Management Forecasting Analytics What will happen? Why did it happen? Budgeting & Planning What should happen? © 2013 Proformative
  • 9. Better BI & FP&A In the Cloud augments limited flexibility with existing systems Low entry cost and no requirements for capital expenditure Rapid deployment and self-service; no requirement for IT involvement Integrates securely and easily with any other application, platform, environment © 2013 Proformative
  • 10. Adaptive Planning Analytics Platform © 2013 Proformative
  • 11. Analyze revenue and expense drivers © 2013 Proformative
  • 12. Drill-Down into KPIs © 2013 Proformative
  • 13. What-If Scenarios © 2013 Proformative
  • 14. Why Visualization? © 2013 Proformative
  • 15. Highly Visual Graphics to Aid in Quick Understanding Revenue Trend On Time Delivery New Sales Pipeline Incident Type Production Trend Financial Status © 2013 Proformative
  • 16. Visualize Trends © 2013 Proformative
  • 17. Glean Insights from Dashboards • Visualize KPIs • Get Visual & Email Alerts • Analyze & Perform What-If Scenarios • Collaborate • Personalize © 2013 Proformative
  • 18. Business Discovery: Business User-Driven BI Remixability App Model and Reassembly Social and Collaborative Insight Mobility Everywhere IT Production Finance HR Marketing Sales © 2013 Proformative
  • 19. QlikView Business Discovery Presentation Layer Marketing Finance Operations Presentation Sales QLIKVIEW Windows IIS BUSINESS DISCOVERY APPS WEBSERVER BUSINESS USERS Application Data / Business IT Admins Analysts Developers QLIKVIEW QVW; QVD files SERVER QLIKVIEW Windows QLIKVIEW MANAGEMENT Based QLIKVIEW DEVELOPER Data Access CONSOLE File Share PUBLISHER (Optional) Custom connectors; ODBC; Security Third-Party OLEDB; QVX; XML Integration: Integration: • Windows Server • Informatica EXCEL SQL SAP ERP • Tivoli Software • Dell • IBM • Boomi • Sybase DATA ORACLE SALESFORCE INFORMATICA • and many more… WAREHOUSE OPERATIONAL DATA SOURCES © 2013 Proformative
  • 21. iDiscover for AAPA © 2013 Proformative
  • 22. AAPA – Member Geo Analysis © 2013 Proformative
  • 23. AAPA Financial Ratio Trends © 2013 Proformative
  • 24. SPSS Modeler for Predictive analytics © 2013 Proformative
  • 25. Leveraging SPSS Modeler • We utilize SPSS Modeler to create predictive models with our structured data, including splitting, resampling and variable creation • Developing predictive models including decision trees, support vector machines and ensemble methods • Visualization: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), and tools that persuade • Evaluating predictive models, including viewing lift curves, variable importance and avoiding overfitting © 2013 Proformative
  • 26. Leveraging SPSS Modeler • We can apply record selection, sampling (including clustered and stratified sampling), merging (including inner joins, full outer joins, partial outer joins, and anti-joins), sorting, aggregation and balancing • Choose from options for data restructuring, partitioning and transposition • Select from extensive string functions: string creation, substitution, search and matching, whitespace removal and truncation • Apply RFM scoring: aggregate customer transactions to provide Recency, Frequency, and Monetary value scores and combine these to produce a complete RFM analysis © 2013 Proformative
  • 27. Modeling Algorithms • Apriori – Popular association discovery algorithm with advanced evaluation functions • Bayesian Networks – Graphical probabilistic models • CHAID & QUEST – Decision tree algorithms including interactive tree building • CARMA – Association algorithm which supports multiple consequents • K-Means, Kohonen, Two Step, Discriminant, Support Vector Machine (SVM) – Clustering and segmentation algorithms • Regression, Linear, GenLin (GLM), Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) – Linear equation modeling • Time-series – Generate and automatically select time-series forecasting models © 2013 Proformative
  • 28. & 28 © 2013 Proformative
  • 29. Thank You For Attending Turning Operational outcome metrics into actionable predictive forecasting model CPE Code For This Session: “___________” 29 © 2013 Proformative

Notas do Editor

  1. You can analyze your business in a variety of ways, to immediately see what’s driving it.
  2. Users can drill down into data drivers across all dimensions, with a hierarchical drill tree showing the starting point and the path taken, ensuring that users don’t lose their way.
  3. While analyzing current performance by drilling into a dial and expanding it by a dimension or by drivers, you can specify a scenario to analyze. Immediately, the system displays the results of that scenario and the impact on metrics being examined.This capability is very powerful for answering questions, such as, “What would be the impact on net margin if we improved people costs in a certain location?Asking questions like this is as simple as selecting a dial in a drill tree, highlighting a bar, segment or point of interest, and then specifying a new value or percentage change for that metric. Scenarios can also be run on multiple points at once. Using this powerful capability, you can determine which action or combination of actions will achieve the optimal result.
  4. Our highly visual graphics allows your users to visualize their metrics, for instant understanding and new insights into their businesses.
  5. You can spot trends at a glance, and identify underlying drivers.
  6. Business Discovery is a whole new way of doing things for BI designed to meet today’s heightened technology expectations.It focuses on the business user and the groups and organizations they exist in, rather than the top-down approach of traditional BI.QlikView takes an approach that provides information and analysis precisely focused on the business problems business users are trying to solve.It’s also about helping users share knowledge and analysis across individuals, groups and organizations. Imagine the dramatic impact this could have if it was deployed across organizations throughout the world.Business Discovery is about delivering Insight Everywhere. QlikView takes insight creation to the very edges of the organization, shifting from a few people who have the skills and tools to create insights from data, to everyone creating insight specific to their business problems.It’s also based on an App Model, providing  lightweight apps that are easy to create and quick to deploy for specific people and groups that need them. QlikView is also Remixable, meaning users remix and reassemble data in new views and create new visualizations on the fly for deeper understanding, allowing individuals to constantly shift the analysis to meet their new and changing business requirements Social and Collaborative capabilities are another hallmark.Decisions are rarely made in a vacuum or based on a single dashboard or report. They’re often made collaboratively in groups and meetings.QlikView enables collaborative decision-making through social Business Discovery. It enables organizations to create a community of users who co-create apps, communicate with each other in context of their decision apps, and explore business data collaboratively, to drive knowledge that can cascade across an organization. More on that in a minute.QlikView also offers total Mobility, delivering anywhere, anytime Business Discovery on virtually any device.
  7. The QlikView Business Discovery platform meets the needs of the most demanding organizations. It’s different from the lightweight tools that only provide visualization capabilities.  QlikView combines all of your data, whether it’s located in ERP, CRM, data warehouses, SQL databases, or even Excel.That data is processed by QlikView Server, a highly scalable, secure and manageable IT-friendly environment.QlikView Server delivers data to QlikView clients, which enable business users to associatively search data, meaning they find not just what they were looking for, but also data relationships they weren’t aware of.QlikView Publisher, an optional module, provides additional scheduling, administration, and management capabilities for large deployments. QlikView delivers all of this data and analysis through state-of-the-art visualizations and interactive reports that paint a clear picture of how the business is performing.  Our robust platform supports tens of thousands of connected users spread across multiple geographies. And they can access QlikView on virtually any device.
  8. You can choose from the most insightful way to visualize your data – with just one click. By simply selecting a dial control, you can change the way data is displayed, to do things such as:Use histograms and Pareto charts to identify major contributors to an outcomeView standard deviations to measure volatilityUse waterfall charts to analyze how a value increases or decreases to come to a final valueApply trend lines better understand historical trends