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The Bu$iness of Games
September 23, 2011 – Mexico City



Justin Berenbaum
Theseus Games, Inc.
Agenda
   A Perfect Storm
    ◦ The Effects
   Retail by the Numbers
    ◦ The Retail Model(s)
    ◦ Where We Were
    ◦ Where We Are
    ◦ Where We’re Going
   The Social Market
   Mobile
   Trends
   Conclusion
    ◦ Take-A-Ways
    ◦ Fortune-Telling
   Questions
                            Theseus Games, Inc.   2
A PERFECT STORM




                  Theseus Games, Inc.   3
A Perfect Storm – 2009 to 2011
• U.S. economy in recession spilling over into the
  world economy
• Beginning of a steady and long decline in retail
  software sales
• Dramatic rise and adoption of iPhone and then
  Android (mobile apps)
• Meteoric rise of Facebook




                                        Theseus Games, Inc.   4
The Effects


              •   Apple convinced people
                  content (apps) should be
                  “free”
              •   Facebook / Zynga – Virtual
                  goods through micro-
                  transactions
              •   Free to play MMO’s and
                  Virtual Worlds



                                  Theseus Games, Inc.   5
The Effects


              • Dramatic rise in the adoption
                of digital distribution
              • The big word “CLOUD”
              • Going from Product model to
                “Service” model




                                Theseus Games, Inc.   6
RETAIL BY THE NUMBERS




                 Theseus Games, Inc.   7
Traditional Retail Model
Wholesale
                                                    $48.00      Retail Price =
(Gross Revenue to Publisher)
                                                                   $60.00
Cost of Goods (Includes 1st Party
                                                     -$8.00
Royalty)
Variable Sales & Marketing
                                                     -$9.00
(Commissions, MDF’s, etc.)

                     Gross Profit Per Unit          $31.00

Licensor Royalties                                 - (if any)

                                             - 20% of Gross
Developer Royalties
                                                      Profit




  Model seems OK, assuming you can
  move most of your units at full MSRP                          Theseus Games, Inc.   8
Used Game Retail Model
Used Price                              $55.00

Maximum Trade-In Value                  -$30.00

Revenue to Publisher                     -$0.00

    Gross Profit Per Unit to GameStop   $25.00




  Good for Consumers – Maybe
  Good for Publishers – Doubtful
 Good for Developers – Yeah right!

                                                  Theseus Games, Inc.   9
The Rise and Fall of Retail
          U.S. Videogame Industry Revenue (in Billions)
               Retail Only, Subscriptions and Digital Distribution Excluded


                                                                              $21.4
                                                                                      $19.7
                                                                      $18.0                   $18.6


                                                              $12.5
                                     $10.3 $10.0 $9.9 $10.5
                              $9.4
          $6.3 $6.9 $6.6
   $5.1




  1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                                                                              Theseus Games, Inc.     10
Source: NPD?
Platform Breakdown
              Total U.S. Games Spend (in Billions): 2010
                          $24.7 (-2% vs 2009)
                                       Social networks: $1.5
           Casual game portals: $3.7   (+66% vs ‘09)
           (+34% vs ‘09)                             PC/Mac (download): $2.5
                                       6%
                                 15%                 (+60% vs ‘09)
                                              10%
         MMOs: $2.7                                       PC/Mac (boxed): $2.1
         (+27% vs ‘09)   11%                        9%    (-19% vs ‘09)


Mobile Devices: $1.6     6%
(+46% vs ‘09)


                                       43%
                                               Consoles: $10.6
                                               (-29% vs ‘09)
                                                               Theseus Games, Inc.   11
Source: Newzoo, 2010
Traditional Platform Trends
                                 Worldwide Hardware
             Console                  2008         2009         2010        2011–YTD*

                                    4,365,219     4,738,151    5,910,598      5,471,806


                                  12,154,986      8.912,394    8,320,295      5,536,184


                                    5,363,229     5,288,667    7,220,353      6,513,403


                                  14,765,991     15,065,468   10,596,169      5,644,388


                                    7.802,298     5,698,096    5,149,101      4,098,014

      Total                       44,451,723     39,702,776   37,196,516    27,263,795
                                                                           Theseus Games, Inc.   12
Source: VGChartz – *Through September 18, 2011
The Not So Pretty Picture
                         Worldwide Hardware Market Share
                         2008                              2011



                           10%                       15%
                   18%                                          20%

                                 27%
                                               21%
                                                                     20%
           33%
                           12%
                                                       24%



                                                            Theseus Games, Inc.   13
Source: VGChartz
Retail Down but Not Out
                  Worldwide Game Revenue (in Billions)
                                               $81.0
                                       $76.9
                                               $18.5
               $66.5                   $20.0

               $17.5
                                               $24.6
                                       $27.0
                                                       Hardware Games Sales
               $29.7
                                                       Retail Games Spend
                                               $37.9   Digital Games Revenue
                                       $29.9

               $19.3



               2010                    2013    2016        Theseus Games, Inc.
Source: DFC Intelligence & Gamasutra                                             14
THE SOCIAL MARKET




                    Theseus Games, Inc.   15
The Social Epidemic
                 The Rise of Facebook – December 2009




                                                                                    Theseus Games, Inc.   16
Source: http://www.pamorama.net/2011/01/30/65-terrific-social-media-infographics/
Global Domination




                                                                                    Theseus Games, Inc.   17
Source: http://www.pamorama.net/2011/01/30/65-terrific-social-media-infographics/
Unstoppable Force
                                Audience Growth on Facebook
  Position      Country           July 2011          12-Month   Position   Country        July 2011          12-Month
                               (millions of users)    Growth                           (millions of users)    Growth
                  ALL               712.4             33.5%       14       Colombia          14.6             30.1%
     1        United States         151.4             16.8%       15         Spain           14.4             26.4%
     2         Indonesia             38.9             33.3%       16       Malaysia          11.2             34.8%
     3       United Kingdom          29.9             11.2%       17       Australia         10.6             60.3%
     4           Turkey              29.5             64.2%       18       Thailand          10.4             13.5%
     5            India              29.5             23.4%       19        Taiwan            9.9             32.1%
     6          Mexico               26.8             51.5%       20       Venezuela          9.1             26.4%
     7         Philippines           25.3             42.3%       21         Chile            8.5             18.6%
     8           France              22.7             16.6%       22         Egypt            7.9             54.4%
     9            Italy              21.2             77.6%       23        Poland            6.4             56.4%
    10           Brazil              19.8             16.0%       24         Peru             6.3             59.2%
    11          Germany              19.5             48.9%       25       Pakistan           4.8             59.6%
    12          Canada               16.6              6.6%
    13         Argentina             15.6             33.2%


                                                                                       Theseus Games, Inc.        18
Source: http://gold.insidernetwork.com/facebook
The Social Games Market
                                Facebook Social Game Metrics



                                                     60M (19%)
                                                   Addicted Players

            600M Active                                               Social Game Players
          Facebook Users                                                  318M (53%)
                                                        258M




   Extrapolates to: 712MM users, 377MM Social Game Players, 72MM addicted.
                                                                      Theseus Games, Inc.   19
Source: Lightspeed Research – September 13, 2010
Behind the Numbers
                              Social Game User Characteristics


                   Have up to 10 friends
         55%       playing the same social
                   games as them


                                                   12%   Play on a mobile device




                   Have invited their friends to
         59%
                   join them


Source: Lightspeed Research – September 13, 2010                 Theseus Games, Inc.   20
A Marketer’s Dream
                            Social Game Metrics for Marketers


        75%                              63%
            Have a Facebook account
                                                         Social games are “more
                                                   26%
                                                         likely” to buy products from
                                                         a brand/company that has
                                                         sponsored or advertised in a
                                                         social game
                   Social gamers have
                   responded to some kind of
         39%
                   marketing activity to get
                   game rewards

Source: Lightspeed Research – September 13, 2010                   Theseus Games, Inc.   21
The Local Opportunity




                        Theseus Games, Inc.   22
MOBILE




         Theseus Games, Inc.   23
The Mobile Landscape
               Smartphone Market Snapshot – Recent Acquirers

                                  Microsoft Palm / Web OS
                                  Windows         2% Symbian OS
                                 Mobile / WP7             1%
                                     7%

                         RIM BlackBerry
                               OS
                              15%
                                                                             Android OS
                                                                                50%
                                                  Apple iOS
                                                    25%




Source: The Nielsen Company, March 2011, Nielsen Mobile Insights, National                Theseus Games, Inc.   24
Mobile Market Shift
                                     Revenue Generated
                           U.S. App Store Top 100 Grossing Games


                          39%
                                                                 65%       % Revenue from
                                                                           Freemium Games
                                                                           % Revenue from
                                                                           Premium Games
                          61%
                                                                 35%


                   January 2011                                June 2011
Sources: iTunes App Store, Flurry Analytics, Flurry Analysis               Theseus Games, Inc.   25
A Deeper Dive
                                          Mobile Freemium Games
                            Relative Time Spent Playing                    Relative Money Spent

                                                                     49%



                                     32%
                                                               29%                 28%
             22%
                                            16%                              14%

                     5%                                                                         3% 2%

               13-17                    18-24                   25-34          35-54              55+
                                               Age Group (in years)
Sources: iTunes App Store, Flurry Analytics, Flurry Analysis                             Theseus Games, Inc.   26
TRENDS




         Theseus Games, Inc.   27
The 800 Pound Gorilla

                              ACQUISITION




Applies to games on any platform. How do you attract customers?
                                                           Theseus Games, Inc.   28
Brand is Everything
               The Ecosystem




          PC              Smartphone




                Brand
Console                             Tablet
                                   Theseus Games, Inc.   29
Gaming Key Trends
            A Rapidly Maturing Market Means


   Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) - Rising

   Game Development Costs (Including Mobile & Social)– Rising

   “Viral Effect” (K or K-Factor) – Falling

   The 80-20 rule has become 95-5 or more

   Importance of Brand

   Casual Core


                                                   Theseus Games, Inc.   30
CONCLUSION




             Theseus Games, Inc.   31
Take-A-Ways
   Do small things really well / Don’t
    reinvent the wheel

   Find Partners

   Be relevant for your target market

   Build a relationship with your customers

                                     Theseus Games, Inc.   32
Take-A-Ways




Not sure who to attribute this to, but it is very accurate   Theseus Games, Inc.   33
My Crystal Ball
   Retail finding a way to be relevant

   Android Market Place Economy evolving

   Small innovations will drive big money

   Call of Duty Outsells Battlefield - Brand
    Wins

                                     Theseus Games, Inc.   34
QUESTIONS?




             Theseus Games, Inc.   35
THANK YOU! – MUCHAS
  GRACIAS!

   Justin Berenbaum
   President
   Theseus Games, Inc.

   theseusgames@gmail.com
   Twitter: scslug

All research, trademarks and trade names are ™ and © their respective owners.


                                                                        Theseus Games, Inc.   36
APPENDIX




           Theseus Games, Inc.   37
Playing the Game
                                 Social Game Revenue Funnel
                     Non-Viral User Sources
                     FB Ads, Offer Walls, Display               Viral User Sources
                     Banners, Cross Promotion,                   Wall Posts, Streams,
                         Fan Pages, Others                      Invites, Email, Others


Refine Marketing /
    Create New                                                           K
  Opportunities                                ACQUISITION


                                                    RETENTION


                                                                             Revenue Sources
                                              MONETIZATION                Virtual Goods, Offers,
                                                                        Advertising, Merchandise,
                                                                                   etc.
 LTV > CAC                    $ / User
                                                                             Theseus Games, Inc.   38
Social Definitions
   Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): Total dollars spent
    acquiring each new customer from all sources.

   Engagement / Customer Retention: How long someone
    plays your game and how often they come back.

   Monthly Average Users (MAU’s): The total number of
    unique users your game has on a month by month basis.

   Daily Average Users (DAU’s): The total number of unique
    users your game has on a day by day basis (these users are
    the most likely to spend money on your game).




                                                Theseus Games, Inc.   39
Social Definitions
   Monetization
    ◦   ARPU – Average Revenue per User: Total revenue divided by your
        total user base.
    ◦   ARPPU – Average Revenue Per Paying user: Total revenue divided by
        the total number of users who paid for anything in your game.


   “Viral Effect” (K or K-Factor): How much is your game
    spread by users. A higher K factor can help reduce your
    customer acquisition costs.

   Life Time Value (LTV): Total value of a user over the lifetime
    of that user. How much money did your customer spend
    playing your game before they stopped.

                                                       Theseus Games, Inc.   40
Retail Display of Game Cards




Retail adoption has already occurred. They are seeking ways to
             derive revenue from the virtual space.
                                                      Theseus Games, Inc.   41

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Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
 

The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011_ss

  • 1. The Bu$iness of Games September 23, 2011 – Mexico City Justin Berenbaum Theseus Games, Inc.
  • 2. Agenda  A Perfect Storm ◦ The Effects  Retail by the Numbers ◦ The Retail Model(s) ◦ Where We Were ◦ Where We Are ◦ Where We’re Going  The Social Market  Mobile  Trends  Conclusion ◦ Take-A-Ways ◦ Fortune-Telling  Questions Theseus Games, Inc. 2
  • 3. A PERFECT STORM Theseus Games, Inc. 3
  • 4. A Perfect Storm – 2009 to 2011 • U.S. economy in recession spilling over into the world economy • Beginning of a steady and long decline in retail software sales • Dramatic rise and adoption of iPhone and then Android (mobile apps) • Meteoric rise of Facebook Theseus Games, Inc. 4
  • 5. The Effects • Apple convinced people content (apps) should be “free” • Facebook / Zynga – Virtual goods through micro- transactions • Free to play MMO’s and Virtual Worlds Theseus Games, Inc. 5
  • 6. The Effects • Dramatic rise in the adoption of digital distribution • The big word “CLOUD” • Going from Product model to “Service” model Theseus Games, Inc. 6
  • 7. RETAIL BY THE NUMBERS Theseus Games, Inc. 7
  • 8. Traditional Retail Model Wholesale $48.00 Retail Price = (Gross Revenue to Publisher) $60.00 Cost of Goods (Includes 1st Party -$8.00 Royalty) Variable Sales & Marketing -$9.00 (Commissions, MDF’s, etc.) Gross Profit Per Unit $31.00 Licensor Royalties - (if any) - 20% of Gross Developer Royalties Profit Model seems OK, assuming you can move most of your units at full MSRP Theseus Games, Inc. 8
  • 9. Used Game Retail Model Used Price $55.00 Maximum Trade-In Value -$30.00 Revenue to Publisher -$0.00 Gross Profit Per Unit to GameStop $25.00 Good for Consumers – Maybe Good for Publishers – Doubtful Good for Developers – Yeah right! Theseus Games, Inc. 9
  • 10. The Rise and Fall of Retail U.S. Videogame Industry Revenue (in Billions) Retail Only, Subscriptions and Digital Distribution Excluded $21.4 $19.7 $18.0 $18.6 $12.5 $10.3 $10.0 $9.9 $10.5 $9.4 $6.3 $6.9 $6.6 $5.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Theseus Games, Inc. 10 Source: NPD?
  • 11. Platform Breakdown Total U.S. Games Spend (in Billions): 2010 $24.7 (-2% vs 2009) Social networks: $1.5 Casual game portals: $3.7 (+66% vs ‘09) (+34% vs ‘09) PC/Mac (download): $2.5 6% 15% (+60% vs ‘09) 10% MMOs: $2.7 PC/Mac (boxed): $2.1 (+27% vs ‘09) 11% 9% (-19% vs ‘09) Mobile Devices: $1.6 6% (+46% vs ‘09) 43% Consoles: $10.6 (-29% vs ‘09) Theseus Games, Inc. 11 Source: Newzoo, 2010
  • 12. Traditional Platform Trends Worldwide Hardware Console 2008 2009 2010 2011–YTD* 4,365,219 4,738,151 5,910,598 5,471,806 12,154,986 8.912,394 8,320,295 5,536,184 5,363,229 5,288,667 7,220,353 6,513,403 14,765,991 15,065,468 10,596,169 5,644,388 7.802,298 5,698,096 5,149,101 4,098,014 Total 44,451,723 39,702,776 37,196,516 27,263,795 Theseus Games, Inc. 12 Source: VGChartz – *Through September 18, 2011
  • 13. The Not So Pretty Picture Worldwide Hardware Market Share 2008 2011 10% 15% 18% 20% 27% 21% 20% 33% 12% 24% Theseus Games, Inc. 13 Source: VGChartz
  • 14. Retail Down but Not Out Worldwide Game Revenue (in Billions) $81.0 $76.9 $18.5 $66.5 $20.0 $17.5 $24.6 $27.0 Hardware Games Sales $29.7 Retail Games Spend $37.9 Digital Games Revenue $29.9 $19.3 2010 2013 2016 Theseus Games, Inc. Source: DFC Intelligence & Gamasutra 14
  • 15. THE SOCIAL MARKET Theseus Games, Inc. 15
  • 16. The Social Epidemic The Rise of Facebook – December 2009 Theseus Games, Inc. 16 Source: http://www.pamorama.net/2011/01/30/65-terrific-social-media-infographics/
  • 17. Global Domination Theseus Games, Inc. 17 Source: http://www.pamorama.net/2011/01/30/65-terrific-social-media-infographics/
  • 18. Unstoppable Force Audience Growth on Facebook Position Country July 2011 12-Month Position Country July 2011 12-Month (millions of users) Growth (millions of users) Growth ALL 712.4 33.5% 14 Colombia 14.6 30.1% 1 United States 151.4 16.8% 15 Spain 14.4 26.4% 2 Indonesia 38.9 33.3% 16 Malaysia 11.2 34.8% 3 United Kingdom 29.9 11.2% 17 Australia 10.6 60.3% 4 Turkey 29.5 64.2% 18 Thailand 10.4 13.5% 5 India 29.5 23.4% 19 Taiwan 9.9 32.1% 6 Mexico 26.8 51.5% 20 Venezuela 9.1 26.4% 7 Philippines 25.3 42.3% 21 Chile 8.5 18.6% 8 France 22.7 16.6% 22 Egypt 7.9 54.4% 9 Italy 21.2 77.6% 23 Poland 6.4 56.4% 10 Brazil 19.8 16.0% 24 Peru 6.3 59.2% 11 Germany 19.5 48.9% 25 Pakistan 4.8 59.6% 12 Canada 16.6 6.6% 13 Argentina 15.6 33.2% Theseus Games, Inc. 18 Source: http://gold.insidernetwork.com/facebook
  • 19. The Social Games Market Facebook Social Game Metrics 60M (19%) Addicted Players 600M Active Social Game Players Facebook Users 318M (53%) 258M Extrapolates to: 712MM users, 377MM Social Game Players, 72MM addicted. Theseus Games, Inc. 19 Source: Lightspeed Research – September 13, 2010
  • 20. Behind the Numbers Social Game User Characteristics Have up to 10 friends 55% playing the same social games as them 12% Play on a mobile device Have invited their friends to 59% join them Source: Lightspeed Research – September 13, 2010 Theseus Games, Inc. 20
  • 21. A Marketer’s Dream Social Game Metrics for Marketers 75% 63% Have a Facebook account Social games are “more 26% likely” to buy products from a brand/company that has sponsored or advertised in a social game Social gamers have responded to some kind of 39% marketing activity to get game rewards Source: Lightspeed Research – September 13, 2010 Theseus Games, Inc. 21
  • 22. The Local Opportunity Theseus Games, Inc. 22
  • 23. MOBILE Theseus Games, Inc. 23
  • 24. The Mobile Landscape Smartphone Market Snapshot – Recent Acquirers Microsoft Palm / Web OS Windows 2% Symbian OS Mobile / WP7 1% 7% RIM BlackBerry OS 15% Android OS 50% Apple iOS 25% Source: The Nielsen Company, March 2011, Nielsen Mobile Insights, National Theseus Games, Inc. 24
  • 25. Mobile Market Shift Revenue Generated U.S. App Store Top 100 Grossing Games 39% 65% % Revenue from Freemium Games % Revenue from Premium Games 61% 35% January 2011 June 2011 Sources: iTunes App Store, Flurry Analytics, Flurry Analysis Theseus Games, Inc. 25
  • 26. A Deeper Dive Mobile Freemium Games Relative Time Spent Playing Relative Money Spent 49% 32% 29% 28% 22% 16% 14% 5% 3% 2% 13-17 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Age Group (in years) Sources: iTunes App Store, Flurry Analytics, Flurry Analysis Theseus Games, Inc. 26
  • 27. TRENDS Theseus Games, Inc. 27
  • 28. The 800 Pound Gorilla ACQUISITION Applies to games on any platform. How do you attract customers? Theseus Games, Inc. 28
  • 29. Brand is Everything The Ecosystem PC Smartphone Brand Console Tablet Theseus Games, Inc. 29
  • 30. Gaming Key Trends A Rapidly Maturing Market Means  Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) - Rising  Game Development Costs (Including Mobile & Social)– Rising  “Viral Effect” (K or K-Factor) – Falling  The 80-20 rule has become 95-5 or more  Importance of Brand  Casual Core Theseus Games, Inc. 30
  • 31. CONCLUSION Theseus Games, Inc. 31
  • 32. Take-A-Ways  Do small things really well / Don’t reinvent the wheel  Find Partners  Be relevant for your target market  Build a relationship with your customers Theseus Games, Inc. 32
  • 33. Take-A-Ways Not sure who to attribute this to, but it is very accurate Theseus Games, Inc. 33
  • 34. My Crystal Ball  Retail finding a way to be relevant  Android Market Place Economy evolving  Small innovations will drive big money  Call of Duty Outsells Battlefield - Brand Wins Theseus Games, Inc. 34
  • 35. QUESTIONS? Theseus Games, Inc. 35
  • 36. THANK YOU! – MUCHAS GRACIAS! Justin Berenbaum President Theseus Games, Inc. theseusgames@gmail.com Twitter: scslug All research, trademarks and trade names are ™ and © their respective owners. Theseus Games, Inc. 36
  • 37. APPENDIX Theseus Games, Inc. 37
  • 38. Playing the Game Social Game Revenue Funnel Non-Viral User Sources FB Ads, Offer Walls, Display Viral User Sources Banners, Cross Promotion, Wall Posts, Streams, Fan Pages, Others Invites, Email, Others Refine Marketing / Create New K Opportunities ACQUISITION RETENTION Revenue Sources MONETIZATION Virtual Goods, Offers, Advertising, Merchandise, etc. LTV > CAC $ / User Theseus Games, Inc. 38
  • 39. Social Definitions  Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): Total dollars spent acquiring each new customer from all sources.  Engagement / Customer Retention: How long someone plays your game and how often they come back.  Monthly Average Users (MAU’s): The total number of unique users your game has on a month by month basis.  Daily Average Users (DAU’s): The total number of unique users your game has on a day by day basis (these users are the most likely to spend money on your game). Theseus Games, Inc. 39
  • 40. Social Definitions  Monetization ◦ ARPU – Average Revenue per User: Total revenue divided by your total user base. ◦ ARPPU – Average Revenue Per Paying user: Total revenue divided by the total number of users who paid for anything in your game.  “Viral Effect” (K or K-Factor): How much is your game spread by users. A higher K factor can help reduce your customer acquisition costs.  Life Time Value (LTV): Total value of a user over the lifetime of that user. How much money did your customer spend playing your game before they stopped. Theseus Games, Inc. 40
  • 41. Retail Display of Game Cards Retail adoption has already occurred. They are seeking ways to derive revenue from the virtual space. Theseus Games, Inc. 41