Presentation from the EPRI-Sandia Symposium on Secure and Resilient Microgrids: DOE-OE Microgrid Cost Study, presented by Annabelle Pratt, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Baltimore, MD, August 29-31, 2016.
1. NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
DOE - OE Microgrid Cost Study
Annabelle Pratt for Julieta Giraldez
EPRI-Sandia National Laboratories Secure, Resilient Microgrid Symposium
Baltimore, August 30th 2016
2. 2
Objective
• Identify the costs of components, integration
and installation of U.S. microgrids and project
cost improvements and technical accelerators
over the next 5 years and beyond
Information could then be used to develop R&D
agendas for the development of the next
generation microgrids
3. 3
Commercial/
Industrial
6%
Community
11%
Utility Distribution
15%
Institutional/
Campus
10%Military
5%
Remote
53%
Direct Current
0%
Objective
• Scope of microgrids
Key Market Segments
– Commercial/Industrial
– Community
New Microgrid Power Capacity Market Share
by Segment, World Markets: 2Q 2016
(Source: Navigant Research)
Commercial/Industri
al…
Community
12%
Utility Distribution
12%
Institutional/Camp
us
27%
Military
13%
Remote
23%
Direct Current
0%
New Microgrid Power Capacity Market Share
by Segment US Market: 2Q 2016
– Campus/Institutional
– Utility Distribution
– Remote
4. 4
Expected Outcome
• Contribute to providing better transparency and
standardization in the reporting of microgrid costs
Better able to determine individual components’
contributions to total system price
Develop granular factors and eliminate subjective pricing
parameters that may influence customer system value
Identify differences
– across system configurations
– across market segment and
component
– between installation costs,
component prices, and
system prices Source: Charge Bliss
5. 5
Challenge
• Particularly challenging to generalize costs
Every installation has unique design and
architecture characteristics that affect the overall
cost of the individual microgrid components
E.g., unit costs per size such as $/MW installed DG
capacity may vary from one design to another
because of application requirements
Cost projections made under defined
assumptions and scenarios
6. 6
Current Practices
• Companies do internal market research
• Market Analysis Companies (Navigant
Research & GTM)
Mainly track projects and report costs
in ranges of $/MW of Capacity Installed
Do not include any breakdown of costs
No standardization in reporting costs
o Microgrid per DOE definition?
o Brown field/Green field projects
o Existing assets
6
7. 7
Approach
• Collect and classify microgrid cost database:
Along with key industry partners, examine existing
microgrid cost databases
Classify microgrid costs and identify the range of possible
microgrid applications and functionalities to divide the
market into segments
Identify costs, technical drivers and barriers
• Develop bottom-up model for projecting future
microgrid costs
• Build automated microgrid cost database for future
use
8. 8
Sent survey to Microgrid Tracker
contacts, inviting them to provide
cost information
– ~ 45 projects with partial or full
breakdown of costs
Still waiting on several responses
Expected to provide detailed
breakdown on costs on ~ 70
projects
Data Collection
8
Querying database to down-select projects
Sent survey to collect info
– Stage of the project, final component sizes, etc.
– ~ 50 users responded and 10 are willing to provide cost information
Access to GTM’s U.S. Microgrid
Market Quarterly Update
– 237 project entries; over 2.5 GW
of U.S capacity
– Total or partial cost information on
95 projects
Subcontract being signed
11. 11
Existing Microgrid Cost Study Data
• Characteristics to validate NREL’s database
and determine the focus for the data
collection effort
o Regional
o Capacity per Market Segment in MW
o # Projects per Market Segment
o Capacity by DER
o # Projects with breakdown of controls and soft
costs
12. 12
MG Cost Study Data – by Location
State [MW] Projects
New York 312.7 19
California 94.6 11
Connecticut 20.4 7
Marlyland 67.6 5
Alaska 37.1 5
New Jersey 37.2 4
Texas 140 3
Oregon 23.3 3
New Mexico 4.3 2
Colorado 31.1 1
Pennsylvania 16 1
Utah 11.2 1
Illinois 9.4 1
Florida 7.0 1
Vermont 6.5 1
Washington 5 1
Delaware 4.9 1
Maine 1.6 1
Hawaii 0.2 1
13. 13
MG Cost Study Data - by Capacity
Campus/Institutiona
l 53.7%
Commercial 3.5%
Community 36.5%
Remote 6.4%
MG Cost Study Project Data by Capacity
Campus/Institut
ional 47.0%
Commercial
26.0%
Community
20.2%
Remote 6.8%
GTM Data by Capacity
Campus/Instituti
onal 47.7%
Commercial 8.1%
Community
15.1%
Remote 29.1%
Navigant Data by Capacity
51%
38%
14. 14
MG Cost Study Data - by # Projects
Campus/Institution
al 31.1%
Commercial 14.9%
Community 40.5%
Remote 13.5%
MG Cost Study Project Data by # Projects
Campus/Institut
ional 40.1%
Commercial
16.7%
Community
26.6%
Remote 16.7%
GTM Data by # Projects
Campus/Instituti
onal 24.7%
Commercial
21.3%
Community
21.3%
Remote 32.6%
Navigant Data by # Projects
39%
12%
15. 15
MG Cost Study Data - by DER Capacity
Diesel 17.1%
Natural Gas
7.1%
CHP 58.1%
Solar 9.9%
Wind 1.5%
Storage 5.7% Fuel Cell 0.7%
MG Cost Study Data by DER Capacity
16. 16
MG Cost Study Data – by Non-DER Costs
• Of the 74 projects in current database
31 have soft cost breakdown
29 have microgrid controls costs
• Special emphasis
Controls/Software costs
System Integration costs
“Soft costs”
What ranges in % of total project costs?
How do project costs without system control and/or “soft
costs” compare with projects with such data?
17. 17
• No linear relationship found in the normalized cost in
$/MW with regards to characteristic and design
variables:
• The team is currently working on multi-regression
and quantile regression models
Size of the dataset is small for statistical analysis models
In any attempt to subdivide the dataset, the size of the
subgroups are too small to provide any meaningful results
Preliminary Results
size, % energy storage,
% renewable energy penetration, etc.
17
18. 18
Lessons Learned
• Data Collection effort takes time!
Most of the companies that have the
data are not in the business of providing data…
o Data not readily available
o It is not part of their daily job!
• Existing microgrid databases only track projects but
do not contain detailed cost information
• A lot of microgrid sites contain legacy equipment and
are built in phases
Considerable effort goes in homogenizing the dataset
18
19. 19
Thank you!
• We need …
annabelle.pratt@nrel.gov , julieta.giraldez@nrel.gov