Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Global LNG Trend, Geopolitics and Geoeconomics Strategy (20) Global LNG Trend, Geopolitics and Geoeconomics Strategy1. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Global LNG Trend, GeoPolitics and
GeoEconomics Strategy
Sampe L. Purba
1
3. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Agenda
• GeoEconomics Pull
vs GeoPolitics
Pressures
• World LNG
Projection
• Indonesia’s shaping
its goal
Oct-13
3
3
4. GeoEconomic Pulls vs GeoPolitics Pressure (1)
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
• High Politics
• Containment and
hedging strategy
• Trans Pacific
Partnership vs ASEAN
+6
• US to shift 60%
warship fleet to Asia –
Pacific by 2020
• US – Russia – China
role play (ref. Harvard – Baker
study – geopolitics on Energy 2012)
Oct-13
• Implemented
Policy
• FDI to China
(Taiwan 80%, Japan,
US, Australia trade 105 b
=>2x as to US)
US ($ 257B) to compete
China ($280B) in net
inflow FDI
MNCs and State Owned
MNCs Sponsors
4
4
5. Why Energy Matters
"Geopolitics => Dynamics interaction
between Power and Space
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Geoeconomics is the study of the
spatial, temporal, and political
aspects of economies and
resources
Oct-13
5
5
6. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Oct-13
Geopolitics and
GeoEconomics
Concern :
- Sea shield, strike and
base
- Energy supply and
security
- Psycological presence
and commitment
- Secure sea-lanes,
pipelines and other
economic interest
- Law of maritime trade
6
6
7. GeoEconomic Pulls vs GeoPolitics Pressure (2)
... energy
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
• National Interest defined
• Some examples
• US to manage
interdependence
- aset-resource based
- technology, know-how,
patent
- Supply Chain based
• Over the Horizon
Approach
• Foreign Affair Policy
comprehensiveintegrated approach
• In 2005 US Congress
to block CNOOC –
Unocal bid, under
National Security
concern (Energy Policy Act 2005,
Protocol accession WTO)
• Preventing US to
export Gas
Oct-13
"North America Natural Gas Security and Consumer
Protection Act“, no export terminal up to 2025
"Low natural gas prices are a competitive advantage for American businesses and a
relief for American families, and exporting our natural gas would eliminate our economic
edge and impose new costs on consumers," said Rep. Markey, who is the top Democrat
on the Natural Resources Committee and a senior member of the Energy and
Commerce Committee. "This is America's natural gas and it should stay here in
America.“
US MNCs to own and build LNG export
terminal around the world
(eg. Gorgon, Qatar, PNG, )
7
7
8. ... Some Worldwide LNG Project
Check it out :
•
Who Own, Build,
Operate,
Finance, Offtaker
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
•
Oct-13
8
8
9. Countries to chart what it needs
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
• Security, accessibility, commerciability: Reexport – arbitrage and Economic added value
Oct-13
9
9
10. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Agenda
• GeoEconomics Pull
vs GeoPolitics
Pressures
• World LNG
Projection
• Indonesia’s shaping
its goal
Oct-13
10
10
11. Analysis : HearSays in the market
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
• FID :
• Commercial
Deal : Price –
Volume Terms
Oil Price as per EIA Energy outlook, 2013
Oct-13
11
11
12. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
US
prediction to
be natural
gas exporter
may change
the equation
US Natural Gas Production as per EIA Energy outlook, 2013
Oct-13
12
12
13. LNG as a long term Horison Project
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
• Technical – Operational – Commercial – Bankability - Others
• Location > Infrastructures,
geology, topography
• Gas supply availability
• Sponsors reputation
• EPCI Contractors
• Operator of the Project
• Ship Construction and/or
operation
• Technology involvement
• Offtake commitment strength
• Purchasers Creditworthiness
Oct-13
• Others – some time not
Others
Market - FID Existing
and Forecasting
Alternative source of
energy competitor
Economy (bullish –
bearish)
13
13
14. LNG as Long-term Project
• Critical (or not) isues along the life time of the
Project
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
• Licensing/
Permit
• Technical
concept
Oct-13
• Changes/
adjustments
(due to
external – internal)
• Operational integrity
• Reserve
reasessments
14
• Extension of PSC
14
15. FEATURES OF FLNG FACILITY
LOGISTIC SHORE BASE
SURF :
FEED, Drilling, Flow line, Umbilical,
Mooring, Turret and Riser.
FLNG
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
FEED ,Gas Pre-Treatment &
Liquefaction Process, Living Quarter,
Hull, Storage Tank, Utilities ( Power
Generation, Compressor, Electrical
etc ), Integration, Offloading and
Mooring System.
FLNG is required complexity design
Specifically following interfaces are
most essential :
- Motion Condition ( Process
performance & Fatigue )
- Class Society’s Requirement
- Safety Studies (Engineering HSE)
- Constructability (Module yard,
Integration yard & Shipyard)
- Offshore operatio
MAINTENANCE & OPERATION
15
16. Power of Prediction and Negotiation
• Supply Side
US Shale gas ->NIMBY
New Technology and
infrastructures
Alternative Energy
sources
New Project Sanction
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
• Demand Side
Japan, China, India
Growth
Domestic needs priority
European dependence
on Russian Gas Network
Etc.
Oct-13
•
Think its Nature of inflexibility
• Long – mid – spot
• Uncommitted
production capacity,
• Receiving terminals
excess capacity
• Unseasonal demand
• Vessel space
uncommitted
availability
16
16
17. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Agenda
Oct-13
• GeoEconomics Pull
vs GeoPolitics
Pressures
• World LNG
Projection
• Indonesia’s shaping
its goal
17
17
18. Indonesia Gas Balance
NERACA GAS BUMI INDONESIA
2013-2028
2013 - 2028
12.000
10.000
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
MMSCFD
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
Oct-13
2013
2014
2015
CONTRACTED DEMAND
2016
2017
2018
COMMITTED DEMAND
2019
2020
POTENTIAL DEMAND
2021
2022
2023
EXISTING SUPPLY
2024
2025
PROJECT SUPPLY
2026
2027
2028
18
POTENTIAL SUPPLY
18
19. Gas Reservers, CBM Resources and Shale gas potential
ACEH (NAD)
7.08
NATUNA
NORTH SUMATRA
1.23
50.27
CENTRAL SUMATRA
9.28
16.65
PAPUA
EAST BORNEO
SOUTH SUMATRA
2.57
16.03
24.14
CELEBES
WEST JAVA
2.98
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
5.26
MOLUCCAS
15.21
EAST JAVA
(Advance Resources Interational, Inc., 2003 processed)
GAS RESERVES
PROVEN
=
103.35 TSCF
POTENTIAL =
47.35 TSCF
TOTAL
=
150.70 TSCF
Oct-13
(As of January 1st 2012)
CBM RESOURCES = 453.30 TCF
Total CBM Basin = 11
SHALE GAS POTENTIAL
(Advance Resources International, Inc., 2003)
Contract Signed up to 2012 : 54 CBM
PSCs
Currently the Government
conduct early study on shale
gas potential
19
19
20. When number talks
National Energy
Policy
At Present
Oil
49,7
%
Gas
20,1
%
Coal
24,5
%
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Renewable
5,7 %
Target 2025
Oct-13
Oil
20%
Gas
30 %
Coal
33%
1. 28% of National Revenue (2012), contributed by
MEMR sector
2. Fuel and electricity subsidy (expected to reduce
gradually)
3. Condusive investment on the sector
4. Indonesia have energy mix resources, currently
heavy on fossil based
5.
6.
7.
8.
Notice Energy Mix target by 2025
Gas domestic allocation 56 %, export 44 %
Infrastructure limit as a challenge
Limited energy access, electrification ratio 73%
Renewable
17%
20
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21. Historical Oil and Gas Production Profile
Shifting from crude to gas dominant
GAS PRODUCTION
DOMINANT
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
OIL PRODUCTION DOMINANT
21
22. Gas allocation 2013 (CONTRACTED)
ALOKASI GAS BUMI 2013 (CONTRACTED)
TRANSPORTASI
0,07%
GAS RUMAH TANGGA
0,09%
INDUSTRI
16,87%
EKSPOR
43,81%
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
LISTRIK
19,09%
Oct-13
PUPUK
11,20%
PENINGKATAN PRODUKSI
8,87%
22
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23. PROSPECT OF STRATEGIC OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
NATUNA
D-ALPHA
Gas Reserve: 46 TCF.
Total Investment US$ 41 billion
On stream 10 yr after development
Gas Reserves 8,09 TCF
investment train 3, US $ 12 Milyar
Train 1 & 2 on stream 2009 & Train 3 by end of
2018
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
DONGGI
SENORO
Gas Reserve 2,8 TCF
Total Investment US$ 1,7 billion
(upstream)
On stream 2015
Oil Reserve: 609 mil bbl
CEPU
Oct-13
Total Investment US$ 6,6 billion
Max. Production165 MBOPD by 2014.
TANGGUH
TRAIN 3
Gas Reserve 9,18 TCF.
MASELA
Total investtment US$ 4,99 billion
On stream 2018.
23
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24. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
MP3EI : Staging, Continuing,
Improving
Consistency and change of paradigm
24
25. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Oil and Gas as a strategic Economic driven
factor
Priority : Horizontal – vertical locomotive
25
25
27. 2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Concluding Remarks
• Geoeconomics Pull and
Geopolitics Pressure to
play on the Global Policy
• Outlook, Prediction and
Projection subject to
external and internal
factors
• Indonesia to look
economic benefit beyond
revenue per se
Thank You – Horas
Sampe L. Purba
sampepurba@gmail.com
27
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28. Brief CV
•
Sampe L. Purba, Lead Specialist Business Support Management, SKKMIGAS
•
2009 © BPMIGAS – All rights reserved
Sampe L. Purba, currently holds function as Lead specialist Business Support
Management in SKKMIGAS used to be known as BPMIGAS - a state legal-owned
institution supervising and managing all Production Sharing Contracts operating in
Indonesia. His job mainly dealing with the assistance to related Function across the
Organization with respect to all legal related matters, regulations and compliance
reviewing of contracts and procurement, management assessment of program,
commercial and financial aspects of oil and gas business, evaluating of Project
Finance with international financial institution, LNG Project, Taxation and Risk
management matters. He joined BPMIGAS since the first year of its establishment in
2002. Prior to it, Mr. Purba was a Government Auditor dealing with many aspects of
governance in Public institution, Industry and Services Corporation.
• Mr. Purba entered some Universities both domestics and abroad, to secure his
degrees in Economics, Banking, Law and Business administration. He is just
completing Regular Management National Leadership Course in National Resilience
Institution
• As part of maintaining and updating his knowledge and sharing of experiences, Mr.
Purba actively attends and gives workshop, conferences and seminar domestic and
abroad.
• Mr. Purba registered as member of Professional association such as Association of
International Petroleum Negotiators (AIPN), Indonesian Petroleum Society, and
28
Okt-13 Indonesian Accountant Association
28
Notas do Editor ghhgggfhjgghj And to secure the future of energy source, especially gas, for both domestic use and international market, we are now conducting mega projects to develop and exploit several potential fields such as Banyuurip in Cepu Block , Natuna D-Alpha or East Natuna Block, Masela Block of INPEX, Donggi Senoro, Indonesian Deepwater Development as well as Jangkrik Structure of ENI