What are the odds of a colleague in Cape Town eating an apricot at the same time as one in Johannesburg? Our genius developer did the math...

1. t eating c ase study
Aprico
ds?
What are the od

2. T hank yous
Thanks Monty for the Apricots and Bananas

3. And so mehow....
Somehow...

4. Somehow
Cindy also ate an apricot! (in Cape Town)

5. What are the odds?
● Assume 7 people at Saidwot ate a fruit
today (not really, just assume)
● And assume there are only 15 different
fruits people like to buy (again, just
assume)
● What are the odds that at least 2 people
ate the same fruit today?

6. Guess?
What are the odds? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?

7. The Pairs
First we need to know how many distinct pairs
we can form with 7 people:
It's 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 21 believe it or yes!
In other words (7 * 6)/2 pairs

8. I don't eat that!
Now, what are the chances of someone eating
a different fruit from what you ate?
It's: 1 - (14/15) = 0.93333333 = 93%
That's very high!

9. So?
So we have 21 pairs and 93% chance that 2
different people are eating 2 different fruits.

10. Combine
Now if we combine these numbers we get:
(.93333)21 = 0.2348 = 23.5%
That's 23.5% probability of 2 people eating
different fruits.

11. T herefore
There must be 100% - 23.5% = 76.5% chances
of 2 people eating the same fruit.
At Saidwot today!

12. That's As suming...
Assuming all the wrong assumptions we had
initially are true.
Correct me because I'm wrong.