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Access vs. Isolation: Preserving Rail Freight Service in Post-Coal Appalachia
- 1. Access Versus Isolation Preserving Freight Rail Service in Post-Coal Appalachia Mark Burton Center for Transportation Research The University of Tennessee April 2017 1
- 2. Sounding the Alarm - 2015 Setting the Policy Table Forecasting the Future Freight Landscape 2 1 2 3
- 3. 1 SOUNDING THE ALARM - 2015
- 4. 1 http://www.arc.gov/images/programs/transp/RailA ccessinAppalachiaPartOneFinal.pdf http://www.arc.gov/images/programs/transp/RailA ccessinAppalachiaPartTwoFinal.pdf Dr. Mark Burton, The University of Tennessee Dr. David Clarke, The University of Tennessee Matt Dietrich, Ohio Rail Development Com. Patrick Donovan, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Dr. Ted Grossardt, University of Kentucky Liza Joffrion, Tennessee DOT Mark McCaskill, AICP, Roanoke Valley Alleghany Valley Regional Commission Laura McNichol, Watco Companies Dr. Craig Philip, Vanderbilt University Dr. Jennifer Shand, University of Cincinnati Dr. Michael Smith, Western Carolina, University Reg Souleyrette, PhD, The University of Kentucky Kent Sowards, Marshall University SOUNDING THE ALARM - 2015
- 5. 2 SETTING THE POLICY TABLE 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Source: U.S. EIA, Bloomberg Projected 2035
- 6. 2 SETTING THE POLICY TABLE 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1929 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2007 NameplateCapacity(Megawatts) Initially Operated
- 7. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Metallurgical Coal NominalPrice,$Ton2 SETTING THE POLICY TABLE
- 8. 2 SETTING THE POLICY TABLE 60 70 80 90 100 110 C 2014 2015 2016 RailCarsLoaded(inThousands
- 9. SETTING THE POLICY TABLE Charleston Savannah Charlotte Columbia St Louis Atlanta Jackson Birmingham Columbus Nashville Louisville Indianapolis Cincinnati Pittsburgh Washington Sevier Yard NS, Knoxville Spartanburg CSX Shop Corbin, KY NS Ops Bluefield CSX Ops Huntington NS Coal Dock Ashtabula, O. Class I Rail Routes Indicates route downgrade or spinoff Norfolk Hatteras CSX Ops Russell, KY CSX Shop Erwin, TN Chattanooga 2
- 10. SETTING THE POLICY TABLE 2 Federal Programs and Processes Short-lines and Short-line Programs State / Regional Acquisition The ARC Role 1 2 3 4
- 11. Non-Coal Rail Industry Changes The ARC Coal Industry Ecosystem Study 11 1 2 3 FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE Forecast County-Level Coal Production Translate Reduced Coal Volumes into Regional Rail Industry Impacts on Railroad Availability and Pricing
- 12. 3 FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE http://cbpp.georgetown.edu/sites/cbpp.georgetown. edu/files/EPV%20Burton%20October%202016.pdf Autonomous Freight Vehicles Positive Train Control (PTC) Plastics and Chemical Industry Capacity Investment Truck Size and Weight Restrictions International Trade Activity The EHH Factor
- 13. 3 FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE An Economic Analysis of the Coal Industry Ecosystem in Appalachia
- 14. 3 FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE Atlanta Charlotte Norfolk Charleston Charleston Savannah Jacksonville Mobile Houston Memphis Birmingham St Louis Detroit Cincinnati Pittsburgh Washington, DC Nashville Louisville
- 15. 3 FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE Atlanta Charlotte Norfolk Charleston Charleston Savannah Jacksonville Mobile Houston Memphis Birmingham St Louis Detroit Cincinnati Pittsburgh Washington, DC Nashville Louisville Coal Changes Freight; Freight Changes the Region
- 16. 3 FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE Existing Rail Traffic Over Eastern Rail Network Expected Rail Traffic Over Eastern Rail Network Current Segment-Specific Traffic Volumes To Future, Post-Coal, Segment-Specific Traffic Volumes • Which Routes Are Potential Candidates for Disposal • The Cost of Rail Access for Counties that Lose Service • The Cost of Rail Access for Counties that Retain Service ROUTE COMPARE PREDICT
- 17. FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE Charleston Savannah Charlotte Columbia St Louis Atlanta Jackson Birmingham Columbus Nashville Louisville Indianapolis Cincinnati Pittsburgh Washington Spartanburg Class I Rail Routes Indicates vulnerability NorfolkRoanoke Knoxville Huntington Richmond 3 Chattanooga
- 18. FUTURE FREIGHT LANDSCAPE 3 Unicoi Carrier CSX Potential Outcome Service Loss Alternative Johnson City Predicted User Cost $6.50-$15.OO p.t. For Demonstration Purposes Only UNICOI COUNTY, TN WASHINGTON COUNTY, TN
- 19. Access Versus Isolation Preserving Freight Rail Service in Post-Coal Appalachia Mark Burton Center for Transportation Research The University of Tennessee April 2017 19