1. Global Markets Update
QNB Economics
29 November 2015

2. • Bond yields fell in advanced economies due to the expected monetary
easing by the European Central Bank (ECB)
• A widening divergence between ECB and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy
stoked a US dollar rally and a weaker euro
• EM equities fell on capital flight owing to expectations of higher US
interest rates while advanced economy markets were broadly stable
• Oil prices rose due to elevated geopolitical risks and a falling US oil rig
count
• The ECB monetary policy decision and US nonfarm payrolls are likely to
dominate markets this week
2
Executive Summary
Key Takeaways
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics

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3
Global Benchmark Yields (%, local currencies)
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; *Month to Date and Year to Date; **10-year swap rate; ***USD denominated
Bond yields fell in advanced economies due to the expected monetary easing
by the ECB
Heat
Map
Legend
Rising Yields
Falling Yields
•Investors purchased European bonds ahead of the
expectation of further ECB monetary easing this
week, driving yields down
Maturity 20-Nov 27-Nov
Advanced Economies Week MTD* YTD*
US 10 yrs 2.26 2.22 -4.2 7.8 4.9
Germany 10 yrs 0.48 0.46 -1.9 -5.7 -8.1
France 10 yrs 0.82 0.77 -4.3 -9.1 -5.2
Italy 10 yrs 1.50 1.40 -9.2 -7.7 -48.6
Japan 10 yrs 0.32 0.31 -1.6 -0.1 -2.1
UK 10 yrs 1.87 1.82 -5.8 -10.6 6.0
Emerging Markets
Bahrain*** 8 yrs 6.04 6.00 -3.7 78.3 131.9
Brazil 10 yrs 15.19 15.82 63.1 -6.9 345.7
China 10 yrs 3.18 3.18 0.0 10.0 -47.0
India 10 yrs 7.70 7.77 7.0 12.6 -9.0
Indonesia 10 yrs 8.65 8.62 -2.8 -26.3 82.3
Nigeria 8 yrs 12.55 11.11 -144.0 -261.0 -421.0
Qatar*** 15 yrs 4.04 4.06 1.8 14.1 -17.3
Russia 11 yrs 9.40 9.62 22.0 -39.0 -353.0
Saudi Arabia** 10 yrs 3.65 3.75 10.2 20.9 74.0
South Africa 10 yrs 8.41 8.55 13.6 21.3 58.1
Turkey 10 yrs 9.87 10.20 33.0 43.0 218.0
Abu Dhabi*** 3 yrs 1.58 1.57 -1.5 18.1 -19.9
Dubai*** 5 yrs 2.82 2.86 4.3 18.8 -48.9
Change in Yield (bps)

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4
Global Exchange Rates vs USD
A widening divergence between ECB and Fed policy stoked a US dollar rally
and a weaker euro
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Exchange rate quoted as amount of USD per currency unit in line with market convention, other exchange rates are amount of currency per USD
Heat
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Legend
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Stronger Currency vs USD
Weaker Currency vs USD
•The euro fell to its weakest level in seven months
against the US dollar
•The ECB is expected to increase stimulus this week
while the probability of a Fed rate hike the following
week is now 72%
•The Brazilian real weakened owing to a corruption
probe into BTG Pactual, the largest independent
bank in Latin America
•The Russian rouble and the Turkish lira weakened
after a Russian warplane was shot down by Turkey
20-Nov 27-Nov
Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD
US Dollar Index 99.57 100.02 0.5 3.2 10.8
Euro Area* 1.06 1.06 -0.5 -3.8 -12.4
Japan 122.81 122.80 0.0 -1.8 -2.5
UK* 1.52 1.50 -1.0 -2.5 -3.5
Emerging Markets
Brazil 3.71 3.85 -3.8 0.2 -30.9
China 6.38 6.39 -0.2 -1.2 -3.0
Egypt 7.83 7.83 0.0 2.5 -8.6
Indonesia 13,623 13,801 -1.3 -0.8 -10.2
India 66.20 66.76 -0.8 -2.2 -5.6
Kuwait 0.30 0.30 -0.3 -0.6 -3.9
Nigeria 199.05 199.05 0.0 0.0 -7.8
Russia 64.74 66.43 -2.6 -3.7 -8.6
Turkey 2.83 2.93 -3.4 -0.3 -20.2
South Africa 13.96 14.41 -3.2 -4.1 -19.7
UAE 3.67 3.67
Bahrain 0.38 0.38
Oman 0.38 0.39
Qatar 3.64 3.64
Saudi Arabia 3.75 3.75
Change (%)
PEGGED

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Global Equity Indices
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics
EM equities fell on capital flight owing to expectations of higher US interest
rates while advanced economy markets were broadly stable
20-Nov 27-Nov
Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD
US (S&P 500) 2,089 2,090 0.0 0.5 1.5
Europe (STOXX 50) 3,452 3,489 1.1 2.1 10.9
Japan (Nikkei 225) 19,880 19,884 0.0 4.2 13.9
UK (FTSE 100) 6,335 6,375 0.6 0.2 -2.9
Emerging Markets
Bahrain (BB) 1,219 1,233 1.1 -1.4 -13.6
Brazil (IBOVESPA) 48,139 45,873 -4.7 0.0 -8.3
China (Shanghai ) 3,617 3,436 -5.0 1.6 6.2
Egypt (EGX 30) 6,569 6,428 -2.1 -14.4 -28.0
India (CNX NIFTY) 7,857 7,943 1.1 -1.5 -4.1
Indonesia (Jakarta) 4,561 4,561 0.0 2.4 -12.7
KSA (Tadawul) 7,034 7,239 2.9 1.6 -13.1
Kuwait (KSE) 5,725 5,795 1.2 0.3 -11.3
Nigeria (All Share) 28,203 27,617 -2.1 -5.4 -20.3
Oman (Muscat 30) 5,796 5,668 -2.2 -4.4 -10.6
Qatar (Doha 20) 10,860 10,522 -3.1 -9.3 -14.4
Russia (MICEX) 1,827 1,796 -1.7 4.9 28.6
S.Africa (J'burg 40) 46,963 46,328 -1.4 -4.1 5.4
Turkey (Istanbul 100) 80,682 75,638 -6.3 -4.7 -11.8
UAE (Abu Dhabi) 4,260 4,220 -0.9 -2.4 -6.8
UAE (Dubai) 3,273 3,204 -2.1 -8.6 -15.1
Change (%)
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Legend
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Higher Equity Index
Lower Equity Index
•Chinese equities fell sharply due to an investigation
into brokerages for alleged violations of securities
regulations

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Commodity Prices*
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Spot prices or nearest expiring future
Oil prices rose due to elevated geopolitical risks and a falling US oil rig count
20-Nov 27-Nov
Energy Week MTD YTD
Brent 44.7 44.9 0.4 -9.5 -21.8
WTI 40.4 41.7 3.3 -10.5 -21.7
LNG 7.8 7.6 -2.3 5.2 -26.2
Precious Metals
Gold 1,078 1,057 -1.9 -7.4 -10.7
Silver 14.2 14.1 -0.6 -9.4 -10.3
Industrial
Copper 4,580 4,573 -0.2 -10.5 -27.4
Steel 380 364 -4.2 -8.5 -39.6
Aluminum 1,447 1,458 0.7 -1.4 -21.3
Wheat 489 466 -4.7 -10.8 -21.0
Corn 363 359 -1.1 -6.0 -9.5
Cocoa 3,366 3,308 -1.7 1.5 13.7
Change (%)
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Higher Commodity Prices
Lower Commodity Prices
•The US oil rig count dropped by 9 rigs to 555, it’s
lowest level since June 2010

7. Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous
Nov 23 Eurozone PMI Composite Nov 54.0 54.4 53.9
Nov 23 US Manufacturing PMI Nov 54.0 52.6 54.1
Nov 23 US Existing Home Sales Oct 5.40M 5.36M 5.55M
Nov 24 US GDP (SAAR QoQ) Q3 2.1% 2.1% 1.5%
Nov 25 US Uni. of Michigan Sentiment Nov 93.1 91.3 93.1
Nov 25 US Durable Goods Orders Oct 1.7% 3.0% -0.8%
Nov 25 US New Home Sales Oct 500K 495K 447K
Nov 27 Japan CPI (YoY) Oct 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Nov 27 UK GDP (QoQ) Q3 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous
Dec 01 Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 10.8% 10.8%
Dec 01 US ISM Manufacturing Nov 50.5 50.1
Dec 03 UK PMI Composite Nov 55.0 55.4
Dec 03 Eurozone ECB Deposit Lending Facility Dec -0.30% -0.20%
Dec 03 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Nov 58.0 59.1
Dec 04 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 200K 271K
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7
Last Week’s Data Review
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics
The ECB monetary policy decision and US nonfarm payrolls are likely to
dominate markets this week
Forthcoming Economic Events

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Dollar Index (left axis) EUR:USD (right axis)
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Sovereign 10-Year Bond Yields
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * MSCI World Index; ** MSCI Emerging Markets Index;; ***S&P GSCI Agricultural Index, which includes wheat corn, soybeans, coffee,
sugar, cocoa and cotton
Two-Year Performance of Major Asset Classes
Exchange Rates
Equities Commodities

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consequential losses arising from its use. Where an opinion is expressed,
unless otherwise cited, it is that of the authors which does not coincide with
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Ziad Daoud
Acting Head of Economics
+974-4453-4642
Rory Fyfe
Senior Economist
+974-4453-4643
Ehsan Khoman
Economist
+974-4453-4423
Hamda Al-Thani
Economist
+974-4453-4642
Rim Mesraoua
Economist – Trainee
+974-4453-4642
QNB Economics Team