The document discusses complacency in phasing down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) despite international agreement. While the Montreal Protocol successfully phased out ozone-depleting substances, HFC replacements for those substances have high global warming potential. Developed countries led the phase-out of substances like CFCs and HCFCs but relied heavily on HFC replacements. Though HFCs currently contribute little to climate change, their use and emissions are growing rapidly and could undermine the climate benefits achieved under the Montreal Protocol. There is a need to match the international commitment to phasing down HFCs with concrete actions.

1. Complacency
after
a
Success
World’s
desire
to
phase
down
HFCs
is
not
matched
by
the
actions.
By
Rajendra
Shende,
Chairman
TERRE
Policy
Centre
Former
Director
UNEP.
26th
May
2013.
The
world
is
in
the
middle
of
celebrations
and
mourning
at
the
same
time.
25th
Anniversary
of
the
Montreal
Protocol
celebrated
last
year
was
scene
of
jubilation
because
it
has
successfully
reduced
the
abundance
of
the
atmospheric
concentration
of
Ozone
Depleting
Substances
(ODS)
and
set
the
stratospheric
ozone
layer
on
the
path
of
recovery.
Pulling
out
the
life-­‐protecting
ozone
layer
from
depletion
mode
to
recovery
mode
is
not
small
achievement,
particularly
when
the
global
efforts
in
climate
change
regime
are
nowhere
near
to
such
climate
recovery.
The
Montreal
Protocol
has
also
effectively
protected
climate”,
stated
number
of
scientists
in
the
prestigious
science
journals,
highlighting
the
co-­‐benefits
of
the
success.
And
rightly
so.
Since
most
ODSs
are
also
potent
greenhouse
gases,
actions
under
the
Montreal
Protocol
have
had
the
very
positive
effect
of
substantially
reducing
a
main
source
of
global
warming.
Indeed,
phasing
out
ODSs
led
to
a
drop
between
1988
and
2010
of
8.0
Gt
CO2eq
per
year
(gigatonnes
equivalent
CO2
emissions)
and
avoided
approximately
10
GtCO2-­‐eq
of
annual
emissions
in
2010.
This
figure
for
2010
is
about
five
times
greater
than
the
annual
emissions

2. reduction
target
for
the
first
commitment
period
(2008–
2012)
of
the
Kyoto
Protocol
and
is
one
of
the
largest
reductions
to
date
in
global
greenhouse
gas
emissions.
The
countries
were
upbeat
in
their
celebrations.
There
is
reason,
therefore,
for
reiterating
the
famous
saying
that
‘
Success
breeds
more
success’.
Well not any more!
The
Montreal
Protocol
has
proved
to
be
an
effective
instrument
for
protecting
the
earth’s
stratospheric
ozone
layer
by
providing
an
international
framework
for
phasing
out
ODSs,
including
chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs)
and
hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs).
The
phase
out
of
ODSs
has
been
accomplished
by
restricting
their
production
and
consumption
according
to
universally
agreed
the
international
timetable.
Every
country
in
the
United
Nations
system
is
Party
to
these
decisions.
In 2007, all the signatories to the Protocol agreed to accelerate
the phasing out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), the last
remaining ozone-depleting substance that is still widely used in
room air conditioners.
The
phase
out
of
ODSs
requires
either
substitute
chemicals
or
other
approaches
to
carry
out
the
same
function.
For
now
hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs)
are
the
main
replacements
in
many
ODS
applications
(Figure 1)
including
HCFCs,
which
having
phased
out
CFCs
and
other
ODS,
will
now
be
the
last
group
of
ODS
to
be
phased
out
with
accelerated
time
table.
HFCs,
which
have
no
known
natural
sources,
are
used
because
they
do
not
deplete
the
stratospheric
ozone
layer
and
can
be
used
with
relative
ease
(technically)
in
place
of
CFCs
and
HCFCs.
The
developed
countries
that
took
the
rightful
and
logical
lead
in
phasing
out
CFCs
(and
now
HCFCs)
have
generously
used
HFCs
and
their
blends
as
alternatives
to

3. CFCs
and
HCFCs.
They
of
course
were
aware
of
the
high
GWP
of
HFCs,
however,
they
considered
getting
rid
of
CFCs
as
the
first
priority.
This
for
example,
CFC
12
were
replaced
by
HFC
134a
(GWP
1400)
in
car
air-­‐conditioning
all
over
the
developed
countries
and
then
developing
countries
followed
this
‘
example’
a
decade
after.
Developed
countries
also
have
achieved
nearly
80
percent
of
the
phased
out
of
HCFCs,
most
of
it
by
using
HFCs.
For
example
in
room
AC,
HCFC
22
(GWP
1800)
was
replaced
by
HFC
410A
(GWP
2100).
This
trend
too
continued
in
the
developing
countries.
Volumes
have
been
written
about
lessons
learned
from
the
Montreal
Protocol,
but
it
looks
like
all
lessons
are
lost
and
forgotten.
The
remaining
issues
are
the
rising
consumption
of
high-­‐GWP-­‐HFCs,
their
ever-­‐growing
banks
and
the
legacy
of
the
Montreal
Protocol
as
an
agreement
that
may
contribute
significantly
to
climate
change
in
coming
decades.
Figure 1 Global consumption (in kilotonnes per year) of ozone depleting CFCs and HCFCs. The
phasing in of HFCs as replacements for CFCs is evident from the decrease in CFC usage
concomitant with the increasing usage of HFCs. HCFC use also increased with the decreasing use
of CFCs. HCFCs are expected to be replaced in part by HFCs as the 2007 Provisions of the
Montreal Protocol on HCFCs continue to be implemented. Thus, HFCs are increasing primarily
because they are replacing CFCs and HCFCs.

4.
Figure 2 Trends in CO2-eq emissions of CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs since 1950 and projected to 2050.
The
climate
benefits
of
the
Montreal
Protocol
may
be
offset
by
increased
use
of
HFCs.
Although
current
contribution
of
HFCs
to
climate
forcing
is
less
than
2%
of
all
other
greenhouse
gases,
HFCs
have
dangerous
the
potential
to
influence
climate
in
future
due
to
rapidly
increasing
use
of
HFCs,
and
consequently
their
emissions.
For
example,
CO2
equivalent
emissions
of
HFCs
(excluding
HFC-­‐23
which
is
by
product
from
manufacture
of
HCFC22)
increased
by
approximately
8%
per
year
from
2004
to
2008.
As
a
consequence,
the
abundances
of
HFCs
in
the
atmosphere
are
also
rapidly
increasing
(Figure
3).
For
example,
HFC-­‐134a,
the
most
abundant
HFC,
has
increased
by
about
10%
per
year
from
2006
to
2010.

5.
Figure 3 Global average atmospheric abundances of four major HFCs used as ODS replacements
(HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC125 and HFC-152a) since 1990. This illustrates the rapid growth in
atmospheric abundances as a result of rapid increases in their emissions. These increases are attributed
to their increased usage in place of CFCs and/or HCFCs. The increases in HFC-23, the second most
abundant HFC in the atmosphere, is not shown since it is assumed that the majority of this chemical is
produced as a byproduct of HCFC-22 and not because of its uses, if any, to replace CFCs and HCFCs.
With
regards
to
future
trends,
HFC
emissions
have
the
potential
to
become
very
large.
Under
current
practices,
the
consumption
of
HFCs
is
projected
to
exceed
by
2050
the
peak
consumption
level
of
CFCs
in
the
1980s.
This
is
primarily
due
to
growing
demand
in
emerging
economies
and
increasing
populations.
Without
intervention,
the
increase
in
HFC
emissions
is
projected
to
offset
much
of
the
climate
benefit
achieved
by
the
earlier
reduction
in
ODS
emissions.
Annual
emissions
of
HFCs
are
projected
to
rise
to
about
3.5
to
8.8
Gt
CO2eq
in
2050
which
is
comparable
to
the
drop
mentioned
above
in
ODS
annual
emissions
of
8.0
Gt
CO2eq
between
1988
and
2010.
If
continued
production
of
HFC23
is
taken
into
account
(production
of
HCFC22
for
feedstock
purposes
,
and
hence
of
byproduct
HFC
23
would
continue
even
after
HCFC22
is
phased
out
under
the
Montreal
Protocol)
the
figures
would
be
even
higher.

6. To
appreciate
the
significance
of
projected
HFCs
emissions,
they
would
be
equivalent
to
7
to
19%
of
the
CO2
emissions
in
2050
based
on
the
IPCC’s
Special
Report
on
Emissions
Scenarios
(SRES),
and
equivalent
to
18
to
45%
of
CO2
emissions
based
on
the
IPCC’s
450
ppm
CO2
emissions
pathway
scenario.
As we start closing the doors for HCFCs, the environmental
crises in the form of rapid rise in HFCs require action beyond
even the scale of the world's response to the ozone-depletion
emergency in the late 20th century. Apart from high growth of
HFC production and consumption there are other challenges that
world has to face:
* A threat from "banks" of ozone-depleting substances:
Though the production of CFCs has been phased out, CFC
produced in the past (before 2010) exists in various equipment
that are still running, like old refrigerators. Such CFCs and other
ozone-depleting substances that still exist in equipment all over
the world are called "banks". About 21 gigatons of carbon
dioxide equivalents contained in old equipment will inevitably
seep into the atmosphere in the absence of any significant efforts
to chemically destroy them by incineration.
* Market imperatives: The center of gravity for global air-
conditioning with HCFCs is moving to China. The country faces
multiple challenges. It is global hub of room ACs (nearly 112
million units manufactured in 2011 which accounts for 90
percent of global production and of which 37milllion units are
exported). It has to supply the - alternative air-conditioning
systems to the developing and developed countries.
Low GWP alternatives like R32 and R290 and their blends are
getting promoted on countries like United States, and high GWP
systems are getting banned in regions such as the European
Union.

7. The world is also looking at China, India and Japan to develop
low-GWP and energy-efficient air-conditioning systems that
would be economically and environmentally beneficial. High
ambient temperature in the developing countries would be the
key barrier for energy-efficient systems.
Today, the reputation of the Montreal Protocol is at stake.
Without immediate action to address these challenges and
strengthen it, the Montreal Protocol is in danger of becoming a
liability to the global community.
Climate change and global warming are linked to the ozone. If
we protect the ozone layer, we protect the planet. The agreement
has shown how government and the public can work together,
but they must continue to do so to overcome the remaining
challenges.
Options
to
minimize
the
climate
influence
of
HFCs.
Technical options for minimizing the influence of HFCs on
climate fall into three categories:
I.
Alternative
methods
and
processes
(also
called
‘not-­‐in-­‐
kind’
alternatives):
Commercially
used
examples
include
fibre
insulation
materials;
dry-­‐powder
asthma
inhalers
and
building
designs
that
avoid
the
need
for
air-­‐
conditioners.
Similalry,
deploying
of
vapour
absorption
systems
where
waste
heat
and
renewable
energy
is
available,
would
avoid
the
use
of
refrigerants
at
all.
II.
Using
non-­‐HFC
substances
with
low
or
zero
GWP:
Commercially
used
examples
include
hydrocarbons,
ammonia,
CO2,
water
and
other
diverse
substances
used
in
various
types
of
foam
products,
refrigeration,
and
fire
protection
systems.

8. III.
Using
low-­‐GWP
HFCs:
HFCs
currently
in
use
have
a
range
of
atmospheric
lifetimes
and
GWPs
(generally
speaking,
the
shorter
the
lifetime,
the
lower
the
GWP).
The
current
mix,
weighted
by
usage
(tonnage),
has
an
average
lifetime
of
15
years.
However,
several
low-­‐GWP
HFCs
(with
lifetimes
of
less
than
a
few
months)
are
now
being
introduced,
e.g.
HFC-­‐1234ze
in
foam
products
and
HFC-­‐1234yf
for
mobile
air-­‐conditioners.
If
the
current
mix
were
to
be
replaced
by
these
or
other
HFCs
with
short
lifetimes
(few
months
or
less),
the
impact
of
HFCs
on
future
radiative
forcing
would
be
as
negligibly
small
as
it
is
today
(<1%
of
CO2’s
forcing).
It
is
noteworthy
that
a
major
fraction
of
new
equipment
already
uses
low-­‐GWP
alternatives
(e.g.,
36%
of
domestic
refrigerators
and
between
15
and
40%
of
industrial
air
conditioners).
It
should
be
noted,
however,
that
low-­‐GWP
alternatives
at
present
make
up
only
a
small
fraction
of
other
commercial
markets,
particulalry
unitary
air
conditioning
,
although
they
have
the
potential
to
substantially
increase
their
market
share.
Challenges
and
emerging
efforts:
Energy
Efficiency
-­‐much
needs
to
be
done
:
While
there
is
some
concern
that
replacing
HFCs
will
lead
to
lower
energy
efficiency,
recent
studies
have
shown
that
many
systems
using
low-­‐GWP
substances
have
equal
or
better
energy
efficiency
than
systems
using
high-­‐GWP
HFCs.
Policy
barriers-­‐standards
and
regulations:
It
is
not
unusual
that
policy
barriers
stand
in
the
way
of
a
change
in
technology,
and
this
applies
also
to
the
case
of
alternatives
to
high-­‐GWP
HFCs.
The
chemistry
till
now
has
dictated
that
low
GWP
alternatives
are
flammable.
Though
DuPont
and
Honeywell
are
working
to
break
this

9. ‘Chemistry
Equation’
by
developing
low
GWP
blends,
much
needs
to
be
done.
Overcoming
these
barriers
would
need
further
technical
developments;
risks
assessment
of
flammability
and
toxicity;
regulations
and
standards
for
the
flammable
low
GWP
alternatives,
inadequate
supply
of
components;
incentives
for
initial
investment
costs;
and
exchange
of
information
and
training
to
develop
skills.
Skills.
While
various
options
are
being
evaluated
or
developed,
there
are
also
some
measures
that
can
be
immediately
implemented.
For
example,
the
design
of
equipment
can
be
modified
to
reduce
leakage
and
the
quantity
of
HFC
used.
Another
example
is
to
implement
practices
to
reduce
emissions
during
manufacture,
use,
servicing
and
disposal
of
equipment.
As
regards
HFC
23
,
disposal
by
incenration
is
the
only
way
to
eliminate
its
atmospheric
concentration.
Such
incineration
plants
would
also
be
useful
for
disposal
and
destructio
of
other
HFCs
indicated
above.
As
a
general
conclusion
about
HFC
alternatives,
it
can
be
said
that
there
is
no
‘one-­‐size
fits
all’
solution.
The
solution
that
works
best
will
depend
on
many
factors
such
as
the
service
to
be
provided,
the
costs
of
different
alternatives,
the
availability
of
technology,
and
the
feasibility
of
implementation.
On
1
May
2013
safety
standard
(GD4706 which equals to
IEC 60335-2-40) for
home
appliances
(including
air
conditioners)
for
flammable
refrigerants
in
China
have
come
into
force.
This
has
been
major
step
forward
for
High
GWP
HFC
phase
down.
However
there
is
need
to

10. update
this
standard
as
well
as
clarify
its
lien
with
GB
9237
and
ISO
5149
which
also
directly
or
indirectly
deal
with
room
AC.
Going forward with actions:
There
are
global
efforts
to
get
consensus
on
HFC
phase
down.
Similar
global
alliance
needs
to
be
formed
for
removing
market
barriers
for
low
GWP
alternatives,
which
are
energy
efficient.
Research
need
to
go
beyond
the
material
compatibility
of
the
refrigerants
and
beyond
the
risk
assessment
studies
and
beyond
the
experiments
with
flammable
refrigerants.
It
should
include
energy
efficiency
of
the
system,
region
specific
studies
that
would
take
into
account
the
high
ambient
temperature
to
Asses
the
energy
efficiency.
Without
such
global
alliance
for
collective
and
collaborative
effort
the
HFC
phase
down
talk
would
remain
as
‘complacency
after
success’
and
without
any
actions.
End