2004-09-23 PM Event Detection from Time Series

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The document discusses methods for identifying particulate matter (PM) events from time series monitoring data. It describes decomposing the temporal signal into seasonal, random noise, and event components. PM events are identified as spikes above a threshold, such as a percentile of the seasonal values. The analysis shows regional differences in the contribution of these components to total concentration variability and in the composition of identified PM events.

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PM Event Detection from Time Series ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Event : Deviation > x*percentile

Temporal Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Typical time series of daily AIRNOW PM25 over the Northeastern US

Temporal Signal Decomposition and Event Detection ,[object Object],[object Object],EUS Daily Average 50%-ile, 30 day 50%-ile smoothing Deviation from %-ile Event : Deviation > x*percentile Median Seasonal Conc. Mean Seasonal Conc. Average Median ,[object Object]

Seasonal PM25 by Region ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Northeast – Southeast Comparison ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Northeast Southeast

Causes of Temporal Variation by Region ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Northeast exhibits the largest coeff. variation (56%); seasonal, noise and events each at 30% Southeast is the least variable region (35%), with virtually no contribution from events Southwest, Northwest, S. Cal. and Great Lakes/Plains show 40-50% coeff. variation mostly, due to seasonal and meteorological noise. Interestingly, the noise is about 30% in all regions, while the events vary much more, 5-30%

‘ Composition’ of Eastern US Events ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Based on VIEWS data

Event Definition: Time Series Approach ,[object Object]

Sulfate EUS Daily Average 50%-ile, 30 day 50%-ile smoothing Deviation from %-ile Event – Deviation > percentile value Median Seasonal Conc. Mean Seasonal Conc.

Temporal Pattern Regional Speciated Analysis - VIEWS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Regions of Aggregation

Dust ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US West East

Dust ,[object Object],Northeast Southwest Southeast

Dust ,[object Object],Northwest S. California Great Plaines

Amm. Sulfate ,[object Object],US West East

Amm. Sulfate ,[object Object],Northeast Southwest Southeast

Amm. Sulfate ,[object Object],Northwest S. California Great Plaines

Organic Carbon ,[object Object],US West East

Organic Carbon ,[object Object],Northeast Southwest Southeast

Organic Carbon ,[object Object],Northwest S. California Great Plaines

Reconstructed Fine Mass ,[object Object],US West East

Reconstructed Fine Mass ,[object Object],Northeast Southwest Southeast

Reconstructed Fine Mass ,[object Object],Northwest S. California Great Plaines

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