“Dietary changes – example from India, Bangladesh and Pakistan” presented by P. K. Joshi and Praduman Kumar, IFPRI-New Delhi, at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.

1. Food Demand in Context of
Dietary Diversification in
South Asian Countries
Praduman Kumar
P.K.Joshi
International Food Policy Reseaerch Institute-New Delhi
pkumariari@gmail.com

2. The Context
• South Asia has 22% world population, 3% world land
and 11% arable land
• Remarkable progress in agricultural production in
last three decades: food deficit to food self-sufficient
• Technology triggered the growth
• Household food and nutrition security remains a
challenge in South Asian countries

3.  Structural changes in dietary pattern in Bangladesh,
India and Pakistan
 Food demand projections to 2030
 Food demand supply gap
 Concerns towards food supply and nutritional- security
Outlines of Presentation

4. Sources of data
• Household income and expenditure survey
data for various rounds in Bangladesh
• Household income and expenditure survey
data for various rounds in Pakistan
• Household data on consumer expenditure
data collected under various rounds of
National Sample Survey in India

5. Changes in consumption of cereals
(kg/capita/annum)
186
171
168
142
137
113
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Bangladesh India Pakistan
1990
2005

6. Changes in consumption of pulses
(kg/capita/annum)
5.1
5.2
11.7
8.9
6.5
5.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bangladesh India Pakistan
1990
2005

7. Changes in consumption of edible oils
(kg/capita/annum)
3.6
6
4.4
6.4
7.5
9.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bangladesh India Pakistan
1990
2005

8. Changes in consumption of sugar
(kg/capita/annum)
3.4
3
11
9.5
14.5
18.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Bangladesh India Pakistan
1990
2005

9. Changes in consumption of vegetables & fruits
(kg/capita/annum)
87
100
51
77
68
65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Bangladesh India Pakistan
1990
2005

10. Changes in consumption of milk
(kg/capita/annum)
11.8
11.8
44
57
79
108
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Bangladesh India Pakistan
1990
2005

11. Changes in consumption of fish, meat & eggs
(kg/capita/annum)
21.5
22.8
5.3
6.9
9
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bangladesh India Pakistan
1990
2005

12. Income elasticity of food demand
Food Bangladesh India Pakistan
Rice -0.01 0.02 0.14
Wheat 0.06 0.07 -0.08
Pulses 0.39 0.22 0.33
Edible oils 0.32 0.30 0.12
Sugar 0.30 0.06 0.05
Vegetables 0.42 0.26 0.54
Fruits 0.58 0.36 0.57
Milk 0.56 0.43 0.49
Fish, meat & eggs 0.66 0.67 0.62

13. Changes in Dietary Pattern in Bangladesh
2010-2030 (%)
50.4
48.1
43.3
30
26.8
18.8
6.5
4.4
-0.3
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
rice
wheat
edible oil
sugar
pulses
vegetables
fruits
milk
Fish, meat, eggs
Per cent
``

14. Changes in Dietary Pattern in Pakistan
2010-2030 (%)
32.8
29.7
25.5
24.6
17.3
9.5
8.3
8.8
-1.7
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
wheat
rice
edible oil
sugar
pulses
fruits
milk
vegetables
fish, meat, eggs
Per cent
``

15. Changes in Dietary Pattern in India
2010-2030 (%)
33.7
30.8
28.6
26.8
26.3
24.7
19.5
11.1
-0.1
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
rice
wheat
pulses
vegetables
sugar
pulses
fruits
Fish, meat, eggs
milk
Per cent
``

16. Share of total calories and protein from foodgrains
(% of total intake)
Food
2010 2020 2030
Bangladesh
Calories 75.7 73.1 70.8
Protein 63.6 59.1 55.3
India
Calories 63.1 61.3 58.6
Protein 75.6 74.0 71.7
Pakistan
Calories 48.6 46.5 44.7
Protein 57.3 54.3 51.7

17. Food expenditure and calories income elasticites
in South Asian countries
Income Elasticity Bangladesh India Pakistan
Food expenditure 0.323 0.290 0.380
Total calories 0.094 0.056 0.066

18. Population Projections in South Asian Countries
Year Bangladesh India Pakistan
Population (millions)
2010 148.7 1190.7 173.3
2015 158.3 1272.0 190.6
2020 167.3 1344.9 208.3
2025 175.2 1408.2 224.9
2030 181.9 1471.3 240.3

19. Food demand in Bangladesh (million ton)
Food 2010 2020 2030 Growth,%
Rice 23.8 26.7 29.0 0.99
Wheat 0.67 0.77 0.85 1.22
Total cereals 25.4 28.6 31.1 1.02
Pulses 0.88 1.13 1.36 2.23
Foodgrains 30.7 34.8 38.0 1.06
Edible oils 1.22 1.43 1.61 1.37
Sugar 0.97 1.21 1.43 1.97
Vegetables &
fruits
20.5 26.8 33.0 2.41
Milk 2.9 4.0 5.1 2.76
Fish 2.6 3.7 4.9 3.08

20. Food demand in Pakistan (million ton)
Food 2010 2020 2030 Growth,%
Rice 2.9 3.6 4.3 2.06
Wheat 21.2 25.2 28.9 1.56
Total cereals 27.5 33.3 38.7 1.72
Pulses 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.48
Foodgrains 29.2 35.5 41.4 1.76
Edible oils 2.9 3.6 4.3 2.07
Sugar 5.3 6.6 8.0 2.12
Vegetables &
Fruits
20.2 27.6 35.6 2.88
Milk 36.5 49.6 63.6 2.81
Fish, meat &
eggs
3.3 4.7 6.1 3.08

21. Food demand in India (million ton)
Food 2010 2020 2030 Growth,%
Rice 98.7 111.8 122.4 1.08
Wheat 83.0 98.3 114.6 1.63
Total cereals 218.1 252.6 284.2 1.33
Pulses 18.0 21.9 26.6 1.97
Foodgrains 236.2 274.4 310.8 1.38
Edible oils 13.6 16.9 21.3 2.25
Sugar 27.6 33.1 39.2 1.77
Vegetables 124.7 154.8 192.0 2.18
Fruits 64.8 80.9 103.0 2.35
Milk 111.9 143.2 184.9 2.54
Fish 6.4 8.2 11.1 2.80

22. Annual growth in Food Demand
(%)
Food Bangladesh India Pakistan
Rice 0.99 1.08 2.06
Wheat 1.22 1.63 1.56
Total cereals 1.02 1.33 1.72
Pulses 2.23 1.97 2.48
Foodgrains 1.06 1.36 1.76
Edible oils 1.37 2.25 2.07
Sugar 1.97 1.77 2.12
Vegetables &
fruits
2.41 2.16 2.88
Milk 2.76 2.54 2.81
Fish 3.08 2.80 3.08

23. Demand, Supply, and Trade for Rice in India
(Million ton)
Year Demand Supply Trade
2010 98.2 98.5 - 0.2
2015 105.8 108.4 2.6
2020 111.8 112.6 0.8
2025 116.9 123.4 6.5
2030 122.4 133.3 10.9

24. Demand, Supply, and Trade for Wheat in India
(Million ton)
Year Demand Supply Trade
2010 83.0 82.1 -0.9
2015 90.5 89.5 -1.0
2020 98.3 97.9 -0.4
2025 106.2 111.1 4.9
2030 114.6 123.5 8.9

25. Demand, Supply, and Trade for Pulses in India
(Million ton)
Year Demand Supply Trade
2010 18.0 14.9 (18.0) -3.1
2015 19.9 16.5 -3.4
2020 21.9 18.5 -3.4
2025 24.1 20.9 -3.2
2030 26.6 23.1 -3.5

26. Demand, Supply, and Trade for Edible Oils in India
(Million ton)
Year Demand Supply Trade
2010 13.6 8.9 -4.8
2015 15.2 11.0 -4.3
2020 17.0 13.6 -3.4
2025 19.0 16.2 -2.8
2030 21.3 19.0 -2.3

27. Demand, Supply, and Trade for Sugar in India
(Million ton)
Year Demand Supply Trade
2010 27.6 29.7 2.1
2015 30.3 33.6 3.3
2020 33.1 38.0 4.9
2025 36.0 44.2 8.2
2030 39.2 50.0 10.8

28. Summing up :
• Diversifying the consumption basket in favor of high-
value foods, such as horticultural, livestock and fishries
products.
• Pathway of change: Coarse gains → Rice/Wheat →
Vegetables/ fruits/eggs/meat/fish/milk
• The steady changes in consumption pattern, driven by
income growth, life style and infrastructural facilities
• Protein intake increasing mainly due to dietary
diversification towards high value non-cereals
commodities
• Future food demand is high and require higher
productivity growth

29. Major concerns towards food and nutritional security
in South Asia
• Decelerating TFP growth
• Slackness in investment on agricultural research,
technology development and extension
• Continued increase in population
• Diminishing land and freshwater resources
• Expanding biotic & abiotic stresses, increasing
soil salinity and waterloging problem

30. Contd…
• South Asian countries may experience a deficit in
production to match their domestic need of the food
commodities.
• India being a large country, influencing production,
consumption and trade, has to play a responsible role
in maintaining its own self-reliance in food production
and meeting the additional requirements of its
neighbouring countries
• Farming systems approach in ecosystem
framework to pursue diversification
(livestock, horticulture, fisheries)