Food security policy challenges in central Asia: example of Tajikistan

Global Food and Financial Crises, Economic
Development and Food Security Challenges in
Tajikistan
Kamiljon T. Akramov
International Food Policy Research Institute
Washington, D.C., USA
Technical Workshop on Knowledge Tools and Lessons for Informing the Design and Implementation
of Food Security Strategies in Asia
Kathmandu, Nepal
November 14-16, 2011

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Outline
• Background
• Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction
• Global food, financial crises and food security in
Tajikistan
• Impact on macro level food security
• Price transmission
• Household level effects
• Agriculture is key for improving overall food security
• Policy challenges and resource constraints
• Conclusions and policy implications
Page 2

Tajikistan is one of the most food insecure
countries in the region
GNI per capita, $ PPP
(2009)
Food Supply
(kcal/capita/day,
2007)
Total Exports /food
imports (2005-2008)
Global hunger index,
% (2010)
Prevalence of
undernourishment,
% (2005-2007)
Armenia 5410 2280 5.5 9.8 22
Azerbaijan 9020 2961 32.3 7.7 -
Georgia 4700 2859 4.7 5.8 -
Kazakhstan 10320 3490 32.5 <5 -
Kyrgyzstan 2200 2644 6.3 <5 10
Tajikistan 1950 2118 4.9 (8.2) 15.8 30
Turkmenistan 6980 2731 70.6 6.3 6
Uzbekistan 2910 2581 17.3 7.1 11
Bangladesh 1550 2281 6.3 24.2 27
Nepal 1180 2360 3.8 20.0 16
Yemen 2330 2068 5.0 27.3 31
Page 3
Source: World Bank (2011), FAO (2011) & authors’ calculations

Cereals are main source of calorie intake and domestic
cereal consumption highly dependent on imports
Composition of calorie intake Cereal balance
Page 4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Percent
Cereals Fruits Vegetables Vegetable oil
Sugar Animal products Other
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Percent
Production Import Stock variation

Outline
• Background
• Global food, financial crises and food security in Tajikistan
Page 5

Tajikistan enjoyed significant economic growth during last decade
but income levels still remains below pre-transition levels
Source: World Bank (2011) & National statistical agencies
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1990–2000 2000–09 1990–2000 2000–09
Grossdomestic product Agriculture
avgannual%growth
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Percent
GDP Per capita GDP Agricultural GDP

Strong inflow of remittances and macroeconomic stability
played important role in boosting economic growth
Workers remittances in Tajikistan, 2002-09
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
currentUS$millions
%ofGDP
Workers'remittances and compensation of employees, received (current US$ millions)
Workers'remittances and compensation of employees, received (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank, 2010

Poverty and undernourishment declined
significantly but still very high and widespread …
Page 8
Source: World Bank and FAO

Outline
• Background
Tajikistan
Page 9

Global food and financial crises: Macroeconomic,
price and welfare effects
• Likely impact on
• Macroeconomic stability and economic growth
• Domestic food and consumer price inflation
• Food security: macro level - country’s ability to finance its food
imports & micro level - household welfare
• Tajikistan’s economy suffered downturn due to global
economic crisis (World Bank 2011)
• Terms of trade significantly worsened due to declining world
cotton and aluminum prices and rising fuel and food prices
• Remittances inflow contracted due to global financial crisis
• Economic growth slowed down to 3.9% in 2009
Page 10

Macro-level food security deteriorated due to
global food and financial crises
Page 11
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ratio
Year
Exports/food imports Exports+remittances/food imports Exports+remittances/food & energy imports
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from National Bank of
Tajikistan

Food prices in Tajikistan rise with global food prices
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
一月-06
二月-06
三月-06
四月-06
五月-06
六月-06
七月-06
八月-06
九月-06
十月-06
十一月-06
十二月-06
一月-07
二月-07
三月-07
四月-07
五月-07
六月-07
七月-07
八月-07
九月-07
十月-07
十一月-07
十二月-07
一月-08
二月-08
三月-08
四月-08
五月-08
六月-08
七月-08
八月-08
九月-08
十月-08
Food price inflation in central Asia
(Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2008)
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Global Global food
inflation
Rising food prices
in Central Asia
Source: Akramov (2011)

Evidence on food price transmission
Page 13
Wheat Wheat flour Bread Food price CPI
Global wheat prices (GWP)
One month lag
Two month lag
0.456
(0.158)**
0.038
(0.158)
0.058
(0.052)
0.169
(0.053)**
0.029
(0.036)
0.035
(0.035)
0.003
(0.018)
0.046
(0.018)**
-0.000
(0.013)
0.028
(0.013)**
Global food crisis (GFC)
Interaction of GWP and GFC
Exchange rate
0.601
(2.289)
0.685
(0.322)**
-0.240
(0.891)
0.698
(0.764)
0.385
(0.105)**
-0.488
(0.290)
-0.123
(0.515)
0.224
(0.071)***
-0.307
(0.196)
0.309
(0.227)
0.077
(0.037)**
0.045
(0.101)
0.147
(0.189)
0.054
(0.026)**
0.049
(0.076)
R=squared
N
F-stat
0.17
106
1.81
0.37
106
5.06
0.25
106
2.78
0.28
106
3.29
0.25
106
2.87

Household level food insecurity (extreme poverty)
increased in Khatlon and GBAO provinces
Page 14
2007 2009 Change
(n=4860) (n=1503)
Dushanbe 16.1 12.5 -3.6
Sogd 31.8 14.8 -17.0
Urban 24.5 11.2 -13.3
Rural 34.3 16.0 -18.3
Khatlon 8.7 20.1 11.4
Urban 15.1 29.0 13.9
Rural 7.4 18.3 10.9
RRP 13.6 11.9 -1.7
Urban 23.8 14.6 -9.2
Rural 12.1 11.5 -0.6
GBAO 10.3 25.5 15.2
Urban 2.2 11.0 8.8
Rural 11.5 27.7 16.2
Tajikistan 17.4 16.2 -1.2
Urban 18.9 16.2 -2.7
Rural 16.9 16.1 -0.8
Source: TLSS 2007 & 2009

Transient and chronic food insecurity
Page 15
Source: TLSS 2007 & 2009 (panel)
2009 TLSS
Total
Non-poor Moderately poor Extreme poor
2007TLSS
Non-poor 561 184 68 813
37.7% 12.4% 4.6% 54.7%
Moderatly poor 249 140 75 464
16.7% 9.4% 5.0% 31.2%
Extreme poor 85 68 57 210
5.7% 4.6% 3.8% 14.1%
Total
895 392 200 1487
60.2% 26.4% 13.4% 100.0%

Outline
• Background
Tajikistan
Page 16

Promoting agricultural productivity and growth can
improve domestic food security
Page 17
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
rural population (%) agricultural employment (%) agric. Gdp (%)
Source: Agency on Statistics of Tajikistan

Agricultural reforms during last decade stimulated
agricultural diversification and improved productivity
• Land allocation patterns changed
in favor of food crops
• Wheat and potato yields
constantly increasing
• Growth in non-cotton agriculture
was very strong
• Nevertheless, agricultural
productivity and crop yields still
lower than potential
• Further policy and institutional
reforms needed to increase
productivity and profitability of
agriculture
Page 18
Wheat yields
Source: FAOSTAT 2011

Also, there are significant differences in
cereal yields across farm types
Page 19
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Tons/ha
Agric Enterprises Dekhan Farms Household Plots
Source: WB (2010)

Addressing existing policy and institutional constraints
necessary to improve agricultural performance
• International agrarian reform
conference – April 15, 2011
• Land use rights and enabling farmers
to make production and marketing
decisions
• Improving access to farm machinery
and modern inputs (seeds, fertilizer)
(ICARDA 2008; Lerman 2009)
• Addressing problems with irrigation
infrastructure
• Limited access to agricultural
extension and finance
• Institutional reform of Ministry of
Agriculture and local governments
Access to improved seed in
Tajikistan
Page 20
Source: ICARDA (2008)

However, agriculture’s potential in improving food security
in Tajikistan is limited due to serious resource constraints
• Mountainous terrain with high
prevalence of steep lands
(54%), high shallowness (48%)
& erosion risk (26%)
• Limited land base for agriculture
• About 0.1 ha arable land per
person
• 0.56 ha unimproved pastures
per person
• Both arable and pasture land
per capita is declining due to
land degradation and high
population growth (Lerman
2009)
Page 21
Source: World Bank 2011

Outline
• Background
Tajikistan
• Challenges and constraints
Page 22

Conclusions and policy implications
• Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to external shocks
• Clearly defined agricultural sector development strategy
and investment plan are necessary
• Establishing strategic food (grain) reserves may help
• Improving connectivity between regional markets and
market access
• Encouraging nonfarm employment in rural areas
• Developing targeted social safety net
• Improving domestic analytical and M&E capacity is
crucial
Page 23

Thank you
Page 24

Food security policy challenges in central Asia: example of Tajikistan

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Food security policy challenges in central Asia: example of Tajikistan