The document summarizes trends in key agriculture and rural development indicators in COMESA from 1990-2010. Productivity of crops like maize, wheat and rice has increased only modestly, with annual growth rates below 1%. Agricultural labor productivity in COMESA has also seen minimal improvement, averaging just 0.1% growth per year. Livestock productivity is also low, with beef yields 153kg/animal versus the global average of 206kg. Wide yield gaps exist between countries and regions within COMESA. Low usage of inputs like fertilizers contributes to low productivity. There is high variability in crop yields due to dependence on rain-fed agriculture and weather. The number of undernourished people in COMESA has

1. Trends of key agriculture and rural
development indicators
Presentation at the COMESA Secretariat
6th February, 2013
Stella Massawe, Joseph Karugia & Paul Guthiga
ReSAKSS-ECA,

2. About trends and outlook report
• Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATORs) for agriculture and
rural development indicators is a flagship report prepared by
ReSAKSS for CAADP M&E – Mandate from AUC/NPCA
• For what purpose?
• Document & monitor progress towards achievement of the
CAADP targets and other development goals
• Facilitate peer learning, review and mutual accountability
• ReSAKSS monitors many indicators (see working paper # 6)

3. Idea behind M&E framework

4. Indicators covered by the CAADP M&E
framework
Level Description
Impact Income, poverty, food and nutrition security, Hunger
Outcome Agriculture sector performance (production,
productivity, trade, Ag GDP growth….)
Output Research, Extension, irrigation, farm support, feeder
roads, post-harvest technologies
Input More /efficient resource allocation, policies, institutions,
strategies, commitments, harmonised regional strategies
and policies and other processes)

5. ReSAKSS Trends and Outlook Reports (ATORs)
http://www.resakss.org/

6. Labour productivity in COMESA
• Average for 2005–2010 was: USD 509 per worker per annum
• Only a half of the world average of USD 1062 for the same period.
• At country level, lowest in Burundi (with USD 72 per worker per
annum) and highest in Mauritius (with USD 5072 per worker per
annum).
• Regional average influenced by: Mauritius, Egypt, Swaziland,
Seychelles and Sudan.
• Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Eritrea, Madagascar, DRC, Malawi less
than USD 300 per worker per annum

7. Agricultural labour productivity, USD per
person per year (1990–2010)
Annual avg 1990–1995 2005–2010
Annual avg
level (1990– annual avg annual avg
Country/region level (2005–
1995) change change
2010)
(%) (%)
COMESA 493.2 -4.1 508.5 0.1
EAC 235.5 -1.5 233.7 -1.1
ASARECA 260.9 -3.2 267.2 -0.9
IGAD 219.2 -6.9 224.3 1.2
• Minimal improvements in agricultural labour productivity in
COMESA
• For a period of two decades (1990-2010) annual avg. growth rate
of 0.1%

8. Productivity of crops
 Productivity of cereals and other crops is much lower than
the global average.
 Increased production has only been achieved by
increasing crop land.
 Productivity growth has been only modest over the last
two decades.
 Levels are much lower than the potential
 There is therefore need for concerted efforts to address
the constraints that underlie the low productivity.
8

9. Cereal yields
Notes: Cereals include wheat, rice, maize, barley, oats, rye, millet, sorghum, buckwheat and mixed grains. Production data on cereals relate to
crops harvested for dry grain only. Cereal crops harvested for hay or harvested green for food, feed or silage and those used for grazing are
excluded

10. Maize yields
Annual
Annual avg Annual avg Annual avg
avg
change level 2005– change
Region/ country level
1990–1995 2010 2005–2010
1990–1995
(%) (t/ha) (%)
(t/ha)
COMESA 1.8 -0.9 2.0 2.7
EAC 1.6 3.9 1.4 0.8
ASARECA 1.3 2.2 1.5 0.8
IGAD** 1.6 -0.6 1.8 -0.2
• Annual average maize productivity (1990–2010) for COMESA
has been 1.9 t/ha
• Very low compared to the potential: (e.g. World=5t/ha)
• Influenced by Mauritius ( 8.5 t/ha) and (Egypt 7.8 t/ha)

11. Rice yields
Annual avg Annual avg Annual avg Annual avg
level 1990– change level 2005– change
Country/ region
1995 1990–1995 2010 2005–2010
(t/ha) (%) (t/ha) (%)
COMESA 3.0 3.0 4.2 -0.5
EAC 1.7 -1.5 1.9 -2.6
ASARECA 1.7 -0.6 2.3 3.2
IGAD 2.3 1.1 2.0 -1.3
• COMESA has registered a 39% increase in rice yields since the early
1990s
• Countries driving the productivity increase recorded in COMESA
are: Sudan, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Madagascar, Zambia, and Egypt.
• Many countries are making progress in increasing rice production to
respond to the growing demand

12. Wheat yields
Annual avg Annual avg Annual avg Annual avg
Country Level 1990– change level 2005– change
/region 1995 1990–1995 2010) 2005–2010
(t/ha) (%) (t/ha) (%)
COMESA 3.3 -5.4 3.5 -1.2
EAC 1.7 1.8 1.9 -0.4
ASARECA 1.6 -4.3 1.9 1.6
IGAD 1.6 -4.3 1.9 1.6
• Wheat productivity has only increased marginally compared to early 1990s
• A declining trend has been observed in the recent past, the annual wheat productivity
growth rate in COMESA averaged -1.2 % (2005-2010)
• Zambia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Kenya are leading in terms of yields
• Yields are less than 2t/ha in Burundi, Rwanda, DRC, Ethiopia, Malawi, Swaziland and
Uganda

13. Production is increasing faster than
productivity
Annual average change (%) in production and yields (1990–2010)
Production Yield
Beans Maize Rice Wheat Beans Maize Rice Wheat
COMESA 3.8 2.4 2.9 3.2 -0.7 0.7 2.2 0.3
EAC 3.8 2.3 4.7 1.0 -0.7 -0.5 0.6 1.2
ASARECA 3.8 2.9 -4.0 16.8 -0.4 0.6 2.0 1.1

14. Productivity in the livestock sector is low
• Average beef and milk productivity is low compared
to the potential
• Rapid increase in production but, mostly driven by
growth in cattle population rather than by
productivity gains.

15. Beef production is on the rise in COMESA
• COMESA’s annual average beef production for the period 2005–2010 was
higher than that of 1990–1995 by 139%
• Largest producers of beef are: Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, Tanzania,
Uganda and Zimbabwe.

16. Annual average growth rate in beef
production
• Positive trends are recorded in beef production
• Annual average growth rate (1990–2010) in beef production in COMESA, was, 6%.
The peak was in 2000-2005 with a growth of 9.4 then slowed down in 2005-2010.
16

17. Beef Productivity (carcass weight in
kg/animal)
• Annual average beef productivity for 2005–2010 was 153
kg/animal in COMESA
• Lower than the global average of 206 kg/animal (FAOSTAT
2011), showing that there is still room for enhancement of
cattle productivity.
• The good news is that beef yields have been increasing, albeit at
a slow pace
• The annual average increase in cattle meat productivity (annual
average change 1990–2010) has been 0.9% in COMESA
• A comparison of average carcass weight for 1990–1995 with
that of 2005–2010 shows that beef productivity in COMESA has
increased by 15%

18. Milk yields in COMESA (1990-2010)
COMESA levels are influenced by Egypt, Libya, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, DRC,
Comoros and Kenya
The long-term average (1990–2010) shows that milk productivity in COMESA is
declining at the annual average rate of -0.1%,

19. Wide yield gaps
Sub-regions Countries
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
Maize EAC: 1.4 COMESA: 2 Eritrea: 0.7 Mauritius: 8.5
(t/ha) DRC: 0.8 Egypt: 7.8
Beans COMESA: 0.6 EAC and ASARECA: Burundi: 0.1 Libya: 3.1
(t/ha) 0.7 Swaziland and Egypt: 2.8
Djibouti: 0.3
Wheat EAC, ASARECA, COMESA: 3.5 Burundi: 0.8 Zambia: 6.6
(t/ha) IGAD: 1.9 Egypt: 6.3
Rice EAC: 1.9 COMESA: 4.2 DRC: 0.8 Egypt: 9.8
(t/ha) Comoros: 1.1 Rwanda: 5.1
Beef EAC: 127 COMESA: 153 Eritrea: 98 Mauritius: 238
(kg/animal) Rwanda: 104 Zimbabwe: 225
Milk in ASARECA: 346 COMESA: 426 Eritrea: 156 Egypt: 1594
kg/animal Ethiopia: 224 Mauritius: 1232

20. Low input use is one of the causes
Example: Fertilizer intensity in kg/ha
2002–2009 2002–2009 2005–2009 2005–2009
annual avg annual avg annual avg annual avg
level (kg/ha) change (%) level change
COMESA 33.5 -0.1 33.1 0.9
EAC 10.3 4.4 11.1 1.5
ASERECA 6.8 6.5 7.4 10.9
IGAD 9.8 5.4 10.4 11.4

21. There is high variability in crop yields
• Year-on-year yield variations are high, dependence on
rainfed agriculture is the main reason for this.
• Weather variability coupled with phenomena like
pest/disease outbreaks and political instability increase yield
variability.
• Governments must therefore establish and maintain
effective mechanisms for early warning and disaster
mitigation and management.
• Furthermore, investment in irrigation and crop protection
21 can lower the amplitude of yield variability

22. Number undernourished in millions
(1990–2012)

23. Learning from the past agricultural
interventions in Africa
“Many agriculture productivity enhancing
interventions have taken place in
COMESA, WHY is productivity still low?”

24. Framework for reviewing the case studies
SPATIAL
VARIATION

25. Factors to enhance effectiveness of interventions
• Problem definition: choice of the commodity? suitability
• Demand: Is there local demand, is the solution demanded at
national and local level
• Participation (stakeholders, local communities, Gender)
• Design aspects (realistic strategy? realistic budget? financing
mechanism? quality of implementation? effective quality
control system? Sustainability
• Targeting aspects: geographical, beneficiaries
• Complimentary investments &partnerships

26. Factors to enhance effectivenss of interventions
• Capacity building (build local capacity, key for sustainability)
• Sustainability (technical, financial, managerial, institutional)
• Well organized groups (collective action, economies of scale)
• Timing & conditioning factors
• Leadership and Dedication (champions, RECS, Govt, donors…..)
• Exogenous factors/ enabling environment or otherwise

27. Concluding Remark
• Good projects: small, short lived, no enough
scaling up?
• Do we also lean from failures?

28. AgInvest Africa
Coming soon:
WEB PORTAL ON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURAL
INTERVENTIONS

29. THANK YOU