Strategic Analysis to inform Agricultural Policy ReSAKSS ECA stakeholder workshop, 11th June, 2012

1. Tracking intraregional trade in food staples in
COMESA region
Presented at the
ReSAKSS Stakeholder Workshop on
Strategic Analysis to inform Agricultural Policy
11th June, 2012
Julliet Wanjiku

2. Presentation outline
• Introduction
• The process of tracking intraregional trade
• Challenges of tracking intraregional trade
• Status of intra-COMESA trade in food staples
• Conclusion

3. Introduction
• Existing initiatives to explain trade potential among
COMESA member countries
– The Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (RATIN) of
the Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC)
– Alliance for Commodity Trade for Eastern and Southern Africa
(ACTESA) by COMESA
• However, the initiatives do not continuously track the
progress in trade
• Thus ReSAKSS has on going project on trade Indicator
 Annual trade indicator
 From baseline, 2008

4. ReSAKSS’ Trade Indicator: the process
• Identification of data sources: Formal and informal
• Evaluating quality of existing data
• Assessing trade indicators development options
• Stakeholder workshops
• Final methodological framework developed & shared
with stakeholders
• Methodology adopted: Use of mirror records for
formal data, all available informal trade data are used

5. Challenges
• Formal trade - discrepancies between mirror
records
• Informal trade – incompleteness/ absence of data
• only a few agencies collect informal trade data on
a regular basis- UBOS and Market Analysis
Subgroup (MAS)
• Lack of harmonised protocol for cross-border trade
monitoring –Manual to be published

6. Data discrepancies: maize trade between
Kenya and Tanzania
70000
Ken to Tan
60000
Reported maize trade (tonnes)
Tan from Ken
50000 Tan to Ken
Ken from Tan
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Data source: COMTRADE, 2010

7. Data discrepancies: maize trade between
Kenya and Uganda
50000
45000 Ken to Uga
Reported maize trade (tonnes)
40000 Uga from Ken
35000 Uga to Ken
30000 Ken from Uga
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Data source: FAOSTAT, 2010

8. Data discrepancy: maize trade between
Kenya and Uganda
140000
Ken to Uga
120000
Reported maize trade (tonnes)
Uga from
100000 Ken
Uga to Ken
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Data source: COMSTAT, 2010

9. Data discrepancy: maize trade between
Canada and USA
3000000
Can to USA
Reported maize trade (tonnes)
2500000 USA from Can
USA to Can
2000000 Can from USA
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2007 2006
Data source: COMSTRADE, 2010

10. Border markets with informal trade in staple foods in
ESA
Only a few border points
are monitored, hence
incompleteness of data

11. Status of intra-COMESA trade in food
staples

12. Trends in intra-COMESA trade 2008-10
Source: International Trade Centre, Trade Map

13. Trends in intra-COMESA food staples trade
2008-2010
Source: COMstat, UBOS, EAGC and FEWSNET
Both values and volumes are tracked

14. Growth in Intra-COMESA Food Staple
Trade 2008 – 2010
Source: Computed using data from COMStat, UBOS and MAS group

15. Conclusion
• 10 countries were selected based on availability of data
• Several data gaps especially for informal trade; need for improvement in
trade data collection infrastructure
• Trade was reported to go down between 2008 and 2009; between 2009
and 2010, trade increased
• Decline in trade was caused by change in weather conditions, existence of
restrictive trade policies e.g. export bans, increase in trade was caused by
good agricultural harvests
• unique and severe constraints to trade: land-locked countries; poor
infrastructure and services; cumbersome border procedures; inadequate
mainstreaming of trade in national development strategies; lack of
progress in deepening economic integration
• There is need to mobilise resources for financing trade facilitation within
the region

16. Thank you for listening
16
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