Workshop "Methods for biomass estimation and forest-cover mapping in the Tropics". Kigali, Rwanda. June 20, 2011.

1. Methods for Biomass Estimation
and Forest-Cover Mapping in the Tropics
Rwanda. June 20-25, 2011
SPATIAL MODEL OF
DEFORESTATION FOR
NORTHEAST BOLIVIA
Eric Armijo

2. WHY SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION?
• Better understanding of past land use
change processes
• Predictive power (future scenarios):
spatial patterns
• Support decision-making for natural
resource managers
• REDD mechanism: baseline definition
(additionality)

3. MODELING ENVIRONMENT
Dinamica EGO
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil
http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/
• Multiple land cover/use transitions at the same time
• Subregion support
• Many transition matrices (annual deforestation rates)
• Dynamic variables
• Highly customizable (w/ spatial patterns)
• Robust with large datasets
• Freeware, available on the web
• Tutorial & technical support available (forum)

4. MODELING ENVIRONMENT
Dinamica EGO

5. STUDY AREA
SOUTH AMERICA
AMAZON
EXTENT

6. Indigenous REDD Program
in the Bolivian Amazon
Size: ~ 3.8 Million Ha.
160,000 inhabitants
4 indigenous territories
Forest cover (2008):
~2.7 Million Ha. (71,9 %)
Deforestation: 9,800 Ha/yr

7. MAIN DRIVERS AND AGENTS OF DEFORESTATION
Slash-and-burn
Cattle ranching (pastures) Small-scale agriculture
~ 20 - 50 Ha. ~ 1 - 5 Ha.
Road
improvement

8. REGIONALIZATION OF THE STUDY AREA
4
1 1 Riberalta - Guayaramerín
2 Riberalta - Rurrenabaque
3 El Choro - Cobija
3 2 4 Rural (outside main road)
4
4

9. SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION
Amount of
forest
conversion
Lambin & Geist, 2006

10. DEFORESTATION RATE
250,000
200,000 Deforestation
(Area in Ha.)
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1991
0 2 4 6 8 10
2001 12 14
2005 16 18
2008
Area (Ha.)
antes 1991 1991-2001 2001-2005 2005-2008
Study area 83,486 45,390 46,185 29,005 204,066
Average annual
deforestation rate
(Ha/year) 4,539 11,546 9,668

11. DEFORESTATION RATE (Transition Matrix)
0.13 %
1.54 %
The transition matrix
is calculated for each
0.62 %
subregion based on
0.13 % observed (past)
0.10 %
deforestation
0.13 %
DEFORESTATION RATE
1991-2005

12. SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION
Location of
forest
conversion
Lambin & Geist, 2006

13. PREDICTORS (VARIABLES) DEFINITION
Distance to deforested areas Distance to main roads

14. “Deforestation risk”
Deforestation predictors
(variables)
Spatial transition probability
Land use
Map of
1991
changes
& 2005

15. SPATIAL MODELING OF DEFORESTATION
Simulation
Lambin & Geist, 2006

16. GENERATING SPATIAL PATTERNS
Deforestation patch formation
Expander = 20% Expander = 40% Expander = 60% Expander = 80%

17. MODEL VALIDATION
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
Model fitness
Similarirty
30%
25%
Spatial resolution (m)
20%
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Is the model capturing
adequately the past
dynamics ?
Simulated deforestation: 2005-2008

18. PROJECTING FUTURE DEFORESTATION SCENARIOS
2008 2020
forest
deforestation Dinamica
EGO

19. Thanks you !
Questions
Eric Armijo
earmijo@fan-bo.org
http://www.fan-bo.org/
http://www.reddamazonia.org/