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THE KAIZEN FORUM ,[object Object],[object Object]
DECISION MAKING “ A manager by profession is a decision maker; Uncertainty is his opponent, overcoming it is his mission.” “ A decision is a judgement.  It is a choice between alternatives.  It is rarely a choice between right and wrong.  It is at best a choice between  “almost  right” and “probably wrong”. “ DRUCKER”
CONCEPTS TO BE COVERED ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DECISION PROCESS R ecognize Problem GATHER  FACTS 1 2 3 GENERATE DECISION MONITOR DEFER DELEGATE IMPLEMENT MAKE ASSESS RESULT MATCH
CONSTRAINTS OF  RATIONAL DECISION MAKING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ I never sit on a fence.Iam either on one side or another” Harry Truman
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CONSTRAINTS OF  RATIONAL DECISION MAKING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ON GOING / RULES STRUCTURED EMPRICAL REQUIRES THINKING UN-STRUCTURED NOT UNIQUE MODEL OF DECISION MAKING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Rational/Objective Prescriptive (Idealized situation) Complete Low Many Defined Satisficing Approach Descriptive (Reality Based) Fragmentary High Only a few Broad Spectrum
MODELS CRISES SPEEDY ACTION INTUITIVE  RIGID  TIGHT CONTROL SHORT RANGE SINGLE COMPLETE NOT SH SHARED AIMED AT PERFECTION DEFINED GOALS ANALYTICAL SNAP MIN MAX PARTICIPATIVE ADAPTIVE CHANGEABLE EXPLOITIVE SHIFT FOCUS FLEX MULTIPILE CONTINGENCY CREATIVE COOPERATIVE BROAD GOALS TEAM WORK “ The ideal number for a hard decision-making meeting is two--- with one on holiday !” INFORMATION CONCLUSION
DIFFERENCES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GROUP THINK A good CEO  will try and anticipate a difficult problem requiring logical analytical decision making and set in motion the machinery for providing necessary information .” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FAULTY DECISION MAKING STYLE WHICH DESIRES UNANIMITY AT THE EXPENSE OF QUALITY  DECISION
EFFECTIVE GROUP DECISION MAKING Leadership 1.Avoid domination. 2.Encourage input 3.Avoid groupthink  And satisficng. 4. Remember goals. Constructive conflict 1. Air legitimate difference 2.Stay task-related. 3.Be impersonal. 4.Play devil’s advocate. Effective group Decision making Creativity 1.Brainstorm 2. Avoid criticizing 3. Exhaust ideas. 4. Combine ideas
NEMAWASHI!  THE TOYOTA WAY Make decision slowly be consensus. Thoroughly considering all options.  Implement rapidly ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Contd
Decide and Announce Seek Individual Input, then Decide and Announce Seek Group Input, then Decide and Announce Group Consensus, Management Approval Group Consensus, with full authority Time Level of involvement Preferred Fallback Fallback (if consensus not achieved) ALTERNATIVE TOYOTA DECISION MAKING METHODS
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],NEMAWASHI!  THE TOYOTA WAY
EXAMPLE OF AN A3 REPORT CURRENT SITUATAION PROPOSAL LABOR COST & TIME ANALYSIS TIME SAVINGS PLAN IMPLEMENTATION CONTROLS TIME LINE
DECISION STYLES High Low Tolerance  for  Ambiguity Rational Intuitive Way of Thinking Careful decision makers Adapt to new situation Efficient,logical  use less information,  few alternative    make decision fast  focus on short-term Broad outlook examine  more alternative  long range  find creative solution Work well with others Receptive to suggestions Avoid conflicts Source:  Rowe McGrath Modules in Decision Making, 1984 Behavioral Conceptual Directive Analytical
HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR DECISION MAKING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SECOND thoughts are invariably wiser. ---Euripides (480-405 B.C)
WHY DECISIONS FAIL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PEOPLE who stay in the middle of the road get run over. --- Aneurin Bevan (1897-1960)
GUIDE LINES FOR DECISION MAKING 1 . MARSHAL THE FACTS 2. CONSULT YOUR FEELING 3. USE WISE TIMINGS 4. DON’T INFER TOO MUCH 5. KEEP THE DECISION FLEXIBLE 6. FOLLOW THROUGH 7. HAVE COURAGE 8. DECISIONS TO SAVE SKIN, BEWARE OF! “ The responsibility is always mine but the decision lies with who ever is on the spot”.

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Decision Making

  • 1.
  • 2. DECISION MAKING “ A manager by profession is a decision maker; Uncertainty is his opponent, overcoming it is his mission.” “ A decision is a judgement. It is a choice between alternatives. It is rarely a choice between right and wrong. It is at best a choice between “almost right” and “probably wrong”. “ DRUCKER”
  • 3.
  • 4. DECISION PROCESS R ecognize Problem GATHER FACTS 1 2 3 GENERATE DECISION MONITOR DEFER DELEGATE IMPLEMENT MAKE ASSESS RESULT MATCH
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. MODELS CRISES SPEEDY ACTION INTUITIVE RIGID TIGHT CONTROL SHORT RANGE SINGLE COMPLETE NOT SH SHARED AIMED AT PERFECTION DEFINED GOALS ANALYTICAL SNAP MIN MAX PARTICIPATIVE ADAPTIVE CHANGEABLE EXPLOITIVE SHIFT FOCUS FLEX MULTIPILE CONTINGENCY CREATIVE COOPERATIVE BROAD GOALS TEAM WORK “ The ideal number for a hard decision-making meeting is two--- with one on holiday !” INFORMATION CONCLUSION
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. EFFECTIVE GROUP DECISION MAKING Leadership 1.Avoid domination. 2.Encourage input 3.Avoid groupthink And satisficng. 4. Remember goals. Constructive conflict 1. Air legitimate difference 2.Stay task-related. 3.Be impersonal. 4.Play devil’s advocate. Effective group Decision making Creativity 1.Brainstorm 2. Avoid criticizing 3. Exhaust ideas. 4. Combine ideas
  • 12.
  • 13. Decide and Announce Seek Individual Input, then Decide and Announce Seek Group Input, then Decide and Announce Group Consensus, Management Approval Group Consensus, with full authority Time Level of involvement Preferred Fallback Fallback (if consensus not achieved) ALTERNATIVE TOYOTA DECISION MAKING METHODS
  • 14.
  • 15. EXAMPLE OF AN A3 REPORT CURRENT SITUATAION PROPOSAL LABOR COST & TIME ANALYSIS TIME SAVINGS PLAN IMPLEMENTATION CONTROLS TIME LINE
  • 16. DECISION STYLES High Low Tolerance for Ambiguity Rational Intuitive Way of Thinking Careful decision makers Adapt to new situation Efficient,logical use less information, few alternative make decision fast focus on short-term Broad outlook examine more alternative long range find creative solution Work well with others Receptive to suggestions Avoid conflicts Source: Rowe McGrath Modules in Decision Making, 1984 Behavioral Conceptual Directive Analytical
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. GUIDE LINES FOR DECISION MAKING 1 . MARSHAL THE FACTS 2. CONSULT YOUR FEELING 3. USE WISE TIMINGS 4. DON’T INFER TOO MUCH 5. KEEP THE DECISION FLEXIBLE 6. FOLLOW THROUGH 7. HAVE COURAGE 8. DECISIONS TO SAVE SKIN, BEWARE OF! “ The responsibility is always mine but the decision lies with who ever is on the spot”.