San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report

MarketWATCH A summary of market activity for
single family home sales in
San Mateo County

©Copyright 2009 Raymond Stoklosa • The RayChel Realty Group • (650) 655-2500

San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report —October 2009

Table of Contents
Introduction ....................................................................................... 2
About this Report ...................................................................... 2
San Mateo County.............................................................................. 3
How’s the Market? .................................................................... 3
Data........................................................................................... 5
San Mateo .......................................................................................... 8
How’s the Market? .................................................................... 8
Data......................................................................................... 10
Belmont ........................................................................................... 13
How’s the Market? .................................................................. 13
Data......................................................................................... 14
Foster City ........................................................................................ 17
How’s the Market? .................................................................. 17
Data......................................................................................... 19
San Carlos ........................................................................................ 22
How’s the Market? .................................................................. 22
Data......................................................................................... 24
Redwood City ................................................................................... 27
How’s the Market? .................................................................. 27
Data......................................................................................... 29

The RayChel Realty Group ♦ San Mateo, CA ♦ (650) 655-2500 ♦ LivingWellinSanMateo.com ♦ DRE 00657178


Introduction
The RayChel Realty Group is proud to present the October 2009 edition of our San Mateo
County Real Estate Price Report, based on data from MLS Listings, Inc. published on a monthly
basis.

About The San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report:

The San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report analyzes median price, number of homes sold,
average days homes were on the market before accepting an offer, months supply of
inventory, new listings vs. pending sales, and total sales volume. This report looks at San
Mateo County as a whole and drills down to five San Mateo County cities: San Mateo,
Belmont, Foster City, San Carlos and Redwood City.

The San Mateo County Real Estate Price Report takes the extra step to calculate meaningful
statistics to help San Mateo County home buyers and sellers understand what is really going
on in the San Mateo County real estate market. For example, we calculate the percentage of
list price seller’s received compared to Original List Price, not the list price at the time the
seller accepted an offer. This allows us to measure how realistic San Mateo County sellers are
when pricing their homes in today’s market.

The San Mateo County Real Estate Price report also breaks down the number of homes sold
by bedroom count and whether they sold for at, under or above their original list price in more
than or less than 30 days. This differentiation helps us recognize the relative strenght or
weakness in various market segments and price levels.



San Mateo County
The San Mateo County single family home resale
market continues to be the bright and shiny spot
of the national housing market. The median
price of a single family home nudged up a bit in
October 2009 to $702,000 indicating the county’s
continued resurgence off its low in
January. Newly initiated sales (also known as
pending sales) outpace new listings in October by
209 units.

Total sales volume of $371.8+ million on 396
single family homes sold as compared to 376 (20
fewer) single family homes sold in June, 2008, for
a total volume of $434.2 million. That means 20
more units sold for $62.4 million dollar less volume
in October, 2009, compared to June, 2009. This
reflects the high level of activity in San Mateo
County’s entry level market matching reports of
multiple offers and overbidding particularly in the
bank owned (REO) segment of the San Mateo
County single family home inventory. Meaning,
the low end homes are selling in a greater
proportion than the higher priced homes.

Days on Market are probably the best indicator of
San Mateo County's real estate activity level. As DOM lengthens, activity stalls and as DOM
shorten, activity increases. Considering the closed sales, it took sellers 81 days to secure a
buyer under contract as compared to 60
days for the pending sales that have not yet
closed escrow. This represents a dramatic
25.9% reduction in marketing time for
newly initiated sales (pending
sales). Clearly, the San Mateo County real
estate market was on the move, at least in
October 2009.



San Mateo County
The most interesting insights for October can be
found in the Days on Market versus amount
received by seller as compared to Original List
Price story. This report measures the number of
homes that sold for less than, the same or more
than the Original List Price because it is the most
telling reflection of how realistic sellers are in
setting their asking prices.

Of the 180 homes (45.5%) that sold in more than
31 days:
• 140 (77.8%) of the 180 sold for less
than the Original List Price
• 2 (1.11%) of the 180 on the market sold for the Original List Price
• 38 (21.1%) of the 180 sold for more than the Original List Price

Of the 216 homes (54.5%) that sold in less than 30 days:
• 77 (35.6%) sold for less than the Original List Price
• 25 (11.6%) sold for the Original List Price
• 114 (52.6%) sold for more than the Original List Price

It’s notable that 38.45% of San Mateo County homes were sold for more than their Original List
Price. And, 52.6% of the homes that sold for more than the Original List Price were on the market
for less than 30 days, while only 21.1% of the homes on the market for more than 31 days received
more than the Original List Price.

What Do the Numbers Mean to Home Sellers?

October’s sales figures are fairly representative of
Octobers in the past. We typically see an autumnal
bump after Labor Day followed by a cooling off
period. A home priced right at the outset of the listing
period will have the greatest chance of selling for top
dollar. A home on the market for more than 31 days
is most likely overpriced. Sellers should expect
market activity to subside as we move into the
predictable seasonal lull.

Drilling down into the details of specifically selected
cities, we begin to see a more interesting tale. Let’s look at several.



San Mateo County
Number of Single Family Homes Sold in San Mateo County

Sold Summary
# Sold After Highest Lowest Median
# Sold Price Reduction Sold Price Sold Price Sold Price

4 + BR 126 40 $5,285,000 $185,000 $1,075,000

3 BR 204 44 $3,950,000 $181,000 $647,500

2 BR 66 12 $1,150,000 $150,000 $525,000

Number of San Mateo County homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.

Days on Market Comparison Summary
Note: OLP = Original List Price
# Sold in 30 Days or Less # Sold in 31 Days or More
# Sold <OLP @OLP >OLP <OLP @OLP >OLP

4 + BR 5 4 1

3 BR 2 1 1

2 BR 1 1



San Mateo County



San Mateo
In October, 2009, we saw 58 single family homes sold in
the City of San Mateo. 24.1% of San Mateo home sellers
(14) had to reduce their asking prices to affect a
sale. The median price of all San Mateo homes sold rose
to $720,000 after three straight months of decline. The
City of San Mateo has the broadest spread of home’s sold
prices - $2,495,000 to $400,000 – of any city in San
Mateo County.

The Real Story of the San Mateo Real Estate Market

Again, the real story lies in the Days on Market analy-
sis. Days on Market is probably the best indicator of San Mateo real estate activity level. As
Days on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity in-
creases. The most interesting insights for October can be found in the Days on Market versus
amount received by seller as compared to Original List Price story. This report measures the
number of homes that sold for less than, equal to or more than the Original List Price because
it is the most telling reflection of how realistic sellers are in setting their asking prices.

San Mateo Homes that Sold for At, Below and Above List Price

Here is a comparison of the number of homes selling for less than, at, or more than the Origi-
nal List Price. 58 single family homes sold in October 2009 with almost 2/3 of the homes
needed more than 31 days to affect a sale, and about 1/3 sold for more than the Original List
Price.

Of the 23 homes (60.3%) that sold in more than 31
days:
• 21 (36.2%) of the 58 sold for less than
the Original List Price
• 0 of the 58 on the market sold for the
Original List Price
• 2 (3.45%) of the 58 sold for more than
the Original List Price

Of the 35 homes (39.7%) that sold in less than 30 days:
• 11 (19.0%) of the 58 sold for less than the Original List Price
• 6 (10.3%) of the 58 sold for the Original List Price
• 18 (31.0%) of the 58 sold for more than the Original List Price



San Mateo

So, we see 55.2% of San Mateo home owners
received less than their Original List Price and
44.8% received the list price or more. That
means that prices are negotiated down in
more than 55% of the San Mateo real estate
transactions.

Pending Home Sales in San Mateo

Sales place under contract – pending sales –
continue to exceed the number of new listings
83/66, and the current inventory (154) level
continues its downward trend from its June
2008 high (193). The October sales volume of $47.7 Million on 58 closed sales is interesting
especially when compared to the $63.5 million on 66 sales in July 2008. That’s $15.8 million
dollars in volume less on 8 fewer sales at a time when the median sales price was $852,500.

What Do the Numbers Mean to San Mateo Buyers and Sellers?

Simply that the less expensive San Mateo homes are selling in greater quantity than more
expensive San Mateo homes. The most affordable homes are drawing the greatest
interest. It’s really the tale of two markets: well-priced, affordable San Mateo homes for
people to live in or investors to rent that sell within 30 days, and aggressively priced homes –
more than 60% of those sold – that were on the market for more than 31 days.



San Mateo
Number of Single Family Homes Sold in San Mateo

Sold Summary

4 + BR 17 6 $2,495,000 $509,500 $1,029,000

3 BR 26 5 $1,400,000 $427,500 $675,000

2 BR 15 3 $955,000 $400,000 $589,500

Number of San Mateo homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.


4 + BR 17 2 1 2 12 0 0

3 BR 26 7 2 8 7 0 2

2 BR 15 2 3 8 2 0 0



San Mateo



Belmont
Belmont, California, home prices con-
tinue to remain stable as indicated by
the median sales price of $865,000 for
October, 2009. Only 3 of the 14 home
owners needed to reduce their asking
prices to affect a sale.

6 homes sold for the asking price or
more than the Original List Price and 9 of
14 sold in less than 30 days. Days on
market on average dropped to 38 which,
by any measure, indicates a fairly strong
buyer demand.

October's most costly Belmont home sold for $1,120,000 and the lowest priced Belmont home
sold for $650,000, both were 3 bedroom homes. The largest home sold – 4 bedrooms – sold
for $870,000.

Pending sales outpaced new listings 27/20 which generally means a market sliding toward the
seller’s favor. 2/3 of the homes sold in less than 30 days in October, 2009. Certainly, not a
seller’s market in terms of the manic we experienced in 2007, but none the less indicative of a
market in which sellers are not giving their homes away. Belmont tends to be a community
where home owners tend to stay longer and establish ties.

What Do the Numbers Mean to Buyers and Sellers?
Clearly, Belmont’s home prices are among the Peninsula’s most stable and least vola-
tile. Belmont homes may present, at this time, some of the best values in San Mateo
County. Excellent schools and unique hillside topography with mature foliage offer Belmont
home buyers a particular character not available on the barren flat lands.



Belmont
Number of Single Family Homes Sold in Belmont

Sold Summary

4 + BR 1 0 $870,000

3 BR 13 3 $1,120,000 $650,000 $860,000

2 BR 0

Number of Belmont homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.


4 + BR 1 1

3 BR 13 5 1 3 3 0 1

2 BR 0



Belmont



Foster City

Foster City Had the Fewest Homes Sold in
October 2009

Among the cities surveyed in the report, Foster City has
the distinction of having the fewest homes sold (8) in
October, 2009. Only 1 of 8 Foster City home owners felt
the need to reduce their asking price to sell their home.

Foster City Market Demand Remains Relatively Flat

Days on Market are probably the best indicator of Foster City real estate activity level. As Days
on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity
increases. Considering the closed sales, it took Foster City home sellers 55 days to secure a
buyer under contract as compared to 48 days for the pending sales that have not yet closed
escrow. This indicates that the market demand holds fairly steady as Foster City homes sold
take about as much time to market as the newest pending sales.

This report measures the number of homes that sold for less than, equal to, or more than the
Original List Price because it is the most telling reflection of how realistic sellers are in setting
their asking prices.

7 of 8 Foster City Homes Sold in Less than 30 Days

7 of 8 homes sold in less than 30 days with 4 receiving less than the Original List Price, and the
single home that sold in more than 30 days sold for less than Original List Price as well.



Foster City

Foster City Has the Most Homogenous
Housing Mix

Currently on the Mid-Peninsula, Foster City has
the narrowest spread between most and least
expensive homes sold - $1,208,000 to
$855,000. This is attributed to the relative
newness of the area as compared to the more
mature cities west of Highway 101 and Foster City
has a much more homogenous housing
composition.

Foster City Has Less than 3 Months
Inventory

The peak inventory (45) level in Foster City occurred in April, 2009. With a current inventory
of 20 Foster City homes for sale, at the present rate of sale, Foster City has just more than 2.5
months supply of homes on the market.

Foster City Sales Prices Continue to Climb

The Foster City median sales price ($1,025,000) continues to climb since April, 2009 after
reaching its all time peak ($1,250,000) in two separate months in 2008. With current
inventories falling rapidly and approaching more normal levels, we expect more balance in the
Foster City real estate market.



Foster City
Number of single family homes sold in Foster City.
Sold Summary

4 + BR 5 0 $1,208,000 $850,000 $1,025,000

3 BR 2 0 $950,000 $855,000 $902,500

2 BR 1 1 $1,150,000

Number of Foster City homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.


4 + BR 5 4 1

3 BR 2 1 1

2 BR 1 1



Foster City



San Carlos
October, 2009, was an interesting month for San
Carlos home sales. Of the 25 single family homes
that sold in San Carlos, 5 home owners (20%) had
to reduce their asking price to affect a sale.
Closed sales for the month climbed to 25, well
above the number of closed sales (14) in October,
2008. Current inventory levels remain relatively
high when compared to 2007-2008 levels.

28% of Home Sellers Received More than their
Original List Price in Less than 30 Days

The most interesting part of the aspect of the
price data lies in the fact that 7 of 25 San Carlos
home owners received more than their Original
List Price within 30 days of the listing date. 16
(64%) of the 25 homes sold in less than 30 days,
and no home on the market for 31 days or more
received more than their Original List Price or even their Original List Price.

San Carlos Market Demand Holding Fairly Steady

Days on Market are probably the best indicator of San Carlos real estate activity level. As Days
on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity increases. Consid-
ering the closed sales, it took sellers 45 days to secure a buyer under contract as compared to
43 days for the pending sales that have not yet closed escrow. This indicates that the market
demand holds fairly steady as San
Carlos homes sold take about as
much time to market as the new-
est pending sales.

This report measures how many
homes sold for less, equal to, or
more than the Original Listed
Price. This relationship to the
Original List Price is the most tell-
ing reflection of how realistic sell-
ers are in setting their asking
prices.



San Carlos

Median Price Displays Signs of Volatility

The most costly home in San Carlos sold
for $1,900,000 - substantially more than
the highest price home in its neighboring
city Belmont. San Carlos' upper tier mar-
ket is overall higher than Belmont. San
Carlos’ median list price ($907,000) - the
highest since May, 2009 – continues to
displays signs of volatility primarily be-
cause of the wide gap between the most
expensive ($1,900,000) and least expen-
sive ($380,000) home sold.

All Indicators Point a Market Trending
Toward Balance

While the data is interesting, it’s important to note that there are significant differences be-
tween individual homes in the more expensive and most desirable neighborhoods of San Car-
los. Every property is unique from another. Trends are enlightening but should not be the de-
termining factor on a specific property’s value. The convergence of the number of closed sales
and the number of new listings almost
always indicates a market trending to-
ward balance.

San Carlos Real Estate Expected to Re-
main Strong

The San Carlos home resale market re-
mains highly desirable and resil-
ient. There are no indications that San
Carlos is about to experience any pre-
cipitous price declines. We expect, bar-
ring any untoward national or regional
economic catastrophes, the San Carlos
real estate market to remain strong.



San Carlos
Number of Single Family Homes Sold in San Carlos

Sold Summary

4 + BR 6 2 $1,900,000 $920,000 $1,269,278

3 BR 16 3 $1,059,000 $730,000 $853,000

2 BR 3 0 $710,000 $380,000 $675,000

Number of San Carlos homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.


4 + BR 6 1 1 4

3 BR 16 4 2 6 4

2 BR 3 2 1



San Carlos



Redwood City

Redwood City Has 2nd Highest Number of
Home Sales
Of the cities surveyed in this report, Redwood City had
a 2nd highest number of home sales (54) in October,
2009. The most dramatic factoid is the huge spread
between the highest price home sold - $2,725,000 -
and the lowest price home sold - $150,000. The
owners of 17 of the 54 homes had to reduce their list
asking price to affect a sale.

Redwood City Real Estate Market Slowing?
Days on Market is probably the best indicator of Redwood City's real estate activity level. As
Days on Market lengthens, activity stalls and as Days on Market shorten, activity
increases. Considering the closed sales, it took Redwood City home sellers 53 days to secure a
buyer under contract as compared to 96 days for the pending sales that have not yet closed
escrow. This indicates a significant increase in the marketing time for pending home sales –
those in contract, but not yet closed. This is something that should be watched as it may be a
harbinger of a slowing in the Redwood City real estate market.

How Well Did Redwood City Home Owners Price their Homes?
This report measures the number of homes that
sold for less than, equal to or more than the
Original List Price because it is the most telling
reflection of how realistic Redwood City home
sellers are in setting their asking prices.

8 (51.9%) sold in less than 30 days. 21 (38.9%)
of 54 Redwood City home owners received their
Original List Price or more. 26 homes took more
than 31 days to sell of which 22 sold for less than their Original List Price. Only 4 homes on the
market for more than 31 days sold for more than its Original List Price. That is not a surprising
figure as the longer a home is on the market the greater the chance that it will sell for less
than asking. We calculate sales differential from Original List Price because it is a truer
measure the negotiating balance between sellers and buyers.



Redwood City

Highest Number of Sales Since June 2007

More Redwood City homes closed escrow (54) than
in any month since June 2007. Newly initiated
Redwood City home sale contracts (91) exceeded
new listings (78) for the 6th straight month. Given
the increase in marketing time, and the fact that 33
of 54 (61.1%) homes sold for less than their Original
List Price, the Redwood City real estate market may
be losing steam. Since December, 2008, the
Redwood City housing market has enjoyed a surge
in the number of new listings to the 96 currently in
contract. It’s taken these homes longer to sell, so it
will be interesting to see how many home owners
sold for less than their Original List Price in the weeks to come.

All Real Estate is Local – Especially in Redwood City

Redwood City is a text book example of the phrase “all real estate is local” – very
local. Notable differences exist between neighborhoods within the same zip code and even
within the same Realtor Map Code. It’s because of the uniqueness of each property and the
inability to move it that makes location the single most influential factor on the value of a
home.



Redwood City
Number of Single Family Homes Sold in Redwood City

Sold Summary

4 + BR 13 6 $2,725,000 $440,000 $950,000

3 BR 22 6 $1,375,000 $243,000 $686,500

2 BR 19 5 $700,000 $150,000 $468,000

Number of Redwood City homes sold that sold for less than, at or above original list price.


4 + BR 13 3 1 1 8

3 BR 22 4 3 3 10 2

2 BR 19 4 0 9 4 0 2



Redwood City


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