The Economic growth rate of Indian Economy can be accelerated from the present levels. It requires the co-operation from all segments of the Indian society.
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India - Growth Options
1. Indian Economy – Options for accelerating the Economic Growth
The Indian Economy did very well immediately after the Crisis. The performance in the following
year s was better than the expectations. After the growth of 9.3% in F 11, the Growth was down to
6.2% in F 12 and 5% in F13.The underperformance of the Economy continues. In F 14, the growth is
likely to be in the range of 6% and
Even till the middle of F11, the potential for the Economic growth was at 10% and it appeared that
India would be able to achieve the potential. The developments in the Global economy and
developments in many aspects in the Indian Economy had resulted in deceleration of growth and
brought down the potential for growth to 8% today.
Lot of new initiatives were identified by the government to revive the higher growth and action
plans are in place and implementations are being addressed. To implement the action plans every
segment in the society has to become a partner to the Government. Addressing the crisis requires
co-operation of all. The slowing economy has affected all segments in the society and everybody is
keen that India’s economic growth gains momentum. The support for Government Initiatives has to
come from all political parties, Judiciary, the regulators , the media and all other segments of the
Society.
Agriculture. The growth in agriculture in the last many years was sub par and much below the
growth in Industry and services. Year on Year the share of agriculture in the economy is going down.
Considering the low productivity of crops in India, the potential for growth in agriculture is more
than 6% p.a. Since the prices of agricultural commodities in the open market have become very
attractive , by enabling the farmers to realise the high prices, the agriculture growth could be
accelerated and the government subsidy to fertilizer could be reduced substantially.
Apart from inflationary pressure, in recent times, the depreciating rupee has emerged as a major
concern. Current account deficit has become one of the major concerns in maintaining the macro
economic stability. Some of the following measures could be considered for addressing the pressing
issues in the economy today.
Measures to correct the Current Account Deficit
• The current account deficit is mainly due to high imports of oil and Gold and very
high value of non essential and consumer products from other countries. Many of
the products imported are available in India and only action plans to be identified to
make them available to the required customer segments .
• To address the current account deficit the following measures could be adopted.
• Identify the trade gap with every country with India has trade.
• Discuss with these countries to increase the imports from India.
• Request all the Diplomats from India to aggressively promote the Indian product
imports in the country of their residence.
2. • Many of the products imported from few coutnries , are giving competition to the
Indian suppliers and sme’s in India. Many of the consumer related products which
are imported could be reduced substantially.
• Set the quantitative limit for imports of Gold on a monthly basis. Create a campaign
for discouraging the purchase of gold for non productive purposes . Identify action
plans for using the unproductive gold in the economic system to meet the demand.
• Create a nation wide campaign for reduction of fuel use. Encourage people to use
public transport. Target a five per cent reduction in use of fuel across industries ,
homes and offices.
• Create innovative schemes for investments by NRI’s. Offer sovereign guarantee for
these products with reasonable rates of return.
• Attract more FDI through clearly specifying the policies for FDI in India in each sector
• Identify the imported products, which will not be productive in the immediate term.
• Explore the scope for rupee trade with countries wherever the imports far exceed
exports.( Rupee trade would help to reduce the dollar imbalance ).
Measures to revive industrial growth
• Projects above Rs.1000 cr of capex which are stuck due to regulatory and
environment hurdles could be cleared by convening the CCI very frequently.
• The infrastructure projects which are on and stuck due to various issues relating to
regulation and environment could be cleared on an urgent basis.
• The credit flow from banking system to industries had seen a decline. Banks stopped
lending to many of the industrial sectors. This was also due to projects in many
sectors not bankable today. The sectors which had become unattractive today can
be made attractive again by introducing new investor friendly regulations .
• Mining is a key sector for industrial growth and it has seen a big decline in volumes
and there is an immediate need to target a growth of at least 15% in mining in the
immediate term and target a growth of 10% year on year in the coming years.
• Many of the power projects were stuck due to unavailability of competitive coal.
Through the proposed MDO model, the output of coal India could be increased by at
least 10% year on year and the government can appoint the best MDO operators in
the world to increase the output of coal.
• Automobile industry is one of the key industries in India and it has seen a big decline
in demand. Many sme’s and workers’ fortunes are dependent on this industry. The
3. credit flow to this sector including SME’s could be increased and tax incentives could
be considered for the short term.
• The manufacturing council has come out with lot of recommendations for increasing
the manufacturing activities and increasing the manufacturing competitiveness of
India. The suggestions could be prioritised and take up for implementation without
any loss of time.
• Interest rates. Since there is very little activity on new projects and the inflation has
gone up ,many of the industries in India had become unviable. There is a need to
reduce the interest rates which will benefit the government, companies as well as
individuals.
• The affordability of interest rates will make the projects more viable and rekindle
the consumer boom witnessed in the industry.
• Land has become very unaffordable for new projects and thel government has to
work very closely with each state government to make the land available at
affordable rates. Single widow clearance including environmental clearance for
projects could be created and the large projects can be show cased to the foreign
investors ( already for Steel sector similar structure is being created ).
Depreciation of the Rupee and its impact on trade and industry
• Most of the companies left their exposures uncovered expecting that the rupee
would move towards Rs.50. The analysts also expected the rupee levels to remain
strong.
• The announcement from the US fed that there would be early withdrawal of
stimulus created panic among the investors and they had started withdrawing
investments from emerging markets.
• This has affected the financial performance of many of the Indian corporates in
quarter one and despite good operational performance , the companies had to
report poor performance. Many of the corporates are sitting on a large unrealised
loss on account of sharp rupee depreciation. Appreciation from the present levels
would reduce the burden on the corporates. This is also likely to reduce the NPA’s in
the banking system.
• Going forward, the currency could be managed by a narrow band and the frequent
communication by the government on new measures to achieve a stable rupee will
go a long way in bringing a stability to the exchange rate.
4. • Make the country more attractive for NRI investments, FII inflow and FDI
investments through investor friendly measures.
• By reducing the current account deficit through various measures mentioned above,
it would be possible to manage the currency within a narrow band.
Development of industrial corridors
The proposed Delhi - Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), the Chennai-Bangalore Industrial
Corridor (CBIC), and the Amritsar-Delhi-Kolkata Industrial Corridor (ADKIC) by the government
will give a big boost to the economy.
• These projects will create many large industrial zones and new cities . This will create
demand for more than 300 industries.
• Since these projects are very large, there is a need to raise resources from abroad.
• Already Japan is involved in a big way in DMIC. UK and Japan had shown interest in CBIC.
World bank has promised to assist in ADKIC.
• Considering the large size of the projects, there is immense scope for other countries to get
involved in these projects.
• All the countries with large forex reserves and sovereign wealth funds can participate in
these projects and we can invite them to participate in these projects.
• Indian companies can play a major role in partnering these projects and management of
these projects.
• The government can create many sub projects with smaller size with attractive returns.
• On the similar lines, now discussions are being held about Chennai – Mangalore corridor,
etc.
• This is the best way to develop the industries. This is the model China followed. For creation
of large cities, China had shown interest. Since they are running a huge surplus with India,
the scope for retaining the export proceeds within India to deploy them within India could
be discussed with China.
Skill development
• Despite there is unemployment, in many cases, there is a shortage of skills.For .E.g.
Drivers to drive Trucks and buses. There is a skills mismatch in many professions today.
On one side there is a shortage of labour and at the same time, there is an high level of
unemployment.
• Further many professions are unattractive today and dying.
5. • The government has already drawn up a plan for developing skills in the Economy and
detailed reports of skill development were prepared for more than 20 industries.
• Each state has created a skills development council and each state is working on this
concept.
• Industry wise skill development councils were created and they have started
functioning.
• PPP model has been created and corporates are working very closely with the
government to make the initiatives very successful. Corproates are very happy to co
operative with the government on these initiatives.
• These programmes can also be synchronised with programmes for unemployed in rural
and urban areas. Since the following projects are being taking on a large scale there is a
need for a large number of workers with competitive costs.
6. • The government has already drawn up a plan for developing skills in the Economy and
detailed reports of skill development were prepared for more than 20 industries.
• Each state has created a skills development council and each state is working on this
concept.
• Industry wise skill development councils were created and they have started
functioning.
• PPP model has been created and corporates are working very closely with the
government to make the initiatives very successful. Corproates are very happy to co
operative with the government on these initiatives.
• These programmes can also be synchronised with programmes for unemployed in rural
and urban areas. Since the following projects are being taking on a large scale there is a
need for a large number of workers with competitive costs.