Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture AICP CM 1.5 Transit can do more than move people and generate revenue. More and more, cities are investing in transit to transform their communities and deliver on more expansive city-building objectives. Traditional transit goals are expanding to address the promise of livable communities, environmental stewardship, economic development and improved public health. Hear how two cities -- Seattle and Portland -- are shaping development scale and character with transit investment. Both cities are using parcel-based, pro forma-based tools to quantify the potential impact of transit projects. Join us for an interactive discussion about the capabilities and limitations of these tools. Hear their stories and learn how to evaluate your own projects against a broader set of goals using technical and market-based analysis. Moderator: Catherine Ciarlo, AICP, Senior Project Manager, CH2M Hill, Portland, Oregon Katherine Idziorek, AICP, LEED AP ND, Urban Designer, VIA Architecture, Seattle, Washington Antonio Gomez-Palacio, Principal, DIALOG, Toronto, Ontario Eric Engstrom, Principal Planner, City of Portland, Bureau of Planning & Sustainability, Portland, Oregon

1. DEVELOPMENT
PROPENSITY
METHODOLOGY
& ANALYSIS
TRANSIT EXPANSION STUDY
BALLARD TO
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE

2. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
PROJECT BACKGROUND
Elliott Bay Downtown
Seattle
*Ballard
*
Project
Study Area
»» Level 2 analysis
»» Partnership between
Sound Transit (ST)
and the Seattle
Department of
Transportation (SDOT)
»» Outcomes:
ͧͧ Support Seattle
Transit Master Plan
ͧͧ Inform Sound
Transit Board
decisions

3. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
LAND USE + TRANSIT INTEGRATION ANALYSIS
GOALS
»» Support sustainable urban growth by:
ͧͧ Supporting economic and transit-oriented development in the corridor
ͧͧ Supporting the development of compact and sustainable communities
A B CA CB D E

4. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
»» “4Ds” + P
ͧͧ Density
ͧͧ Design
ͧͧ Diversity
ͧͧ Destinations
MEASURE: OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
jobs and people.
jobs and people. jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people. jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people. jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
+ ͧͧ Development
Propensity: the
art and science of
anticipating future
development

5. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW
DISCOVERY
Develop scenarios
and apply filters
Test outcomes
OUTPUT

6. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
DISCOVERY
Understand land use
within walksheds
Gather readily-available
King County Assessor’s
data at the parcel level
1

7. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
APPLY FILTERS
Understand land use
within walksheds
Gather readily-available
King County Assessor’s
data at the parcel level
1
Create key filters
to identify which
parcels are likely
to redevelop in the
future
2

8. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
ESTIMATE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO LAND VALUES
jobs and people. jobs and people.
jobs and people. jobs and people.
SCENARIO 2:
HCT investment
SCENARIO 3:
HCT investment +
Station-area upzone
SCENARIO 1:
Existing
conditions
Estimate the impact on land value that HCT service and a
3 potential rezone may have on parcels within the walksheds

9. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
SCENARIO 1
»» Scenario 1: Existing
conditions - no transit
investment, no upzonejobs and people. jobs and people.
jobs and people. jobs and people.

10. Corridor ID: A B CA CB D E
HCT Tech-nology:
Tunnel/
Elevated
Light Rail
Elevated
Light Rail
At-Grade
Light Rail
or Street-car
At-Grade
Light Rail
or Street-car
Tunnel
Light Rail
At-Grade
Streetcar
Quality of Transit:
% Impact on Land Value 45% 36% 29% 29% 45% 24%
Criteria Char-acteristics
Criteria
Maximum
Weight Corridor Scoring
Potential
Travel Time
Savings
4 4 4 3 3 4 2
Reliability/On-
Time Perfor-mance
3 3 3 2 2 3 1.5
Passenger
Comfort/
Safety
2 2 1 1 1 2 1
Perception of
Permanence 2 2 2 1 1 2 1
Station Type
Elevated Sta-tions
1 1
Surface Sta-tions
2 2 2 2
Tunnel
Stations 3 3 3
Potential for
Rezone 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 1 0.5
Total Score 15 12 9.5 9.5 15 8
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
SCENARIO 2: TRANSIT INVESTMENT
»» Adjusted to reflect land
value lift as a result of
transit investment
»» Increase in rents translated
into land value increase
TRANSIT QUALITY INFLUENCE ON LAND VALUES
Weighting range:
Tunnel/elevated LRT = 45% (high) to At-grade streetcar = 24% (low)
jobs and people. jobs and people.
jobs and people. jobs and people.

11. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
jobs and people. jobs and people.
jobs and people. jobs and people.
SCENARIO 3: TRANSIT INVESTMENT + UPZONE
»» Five geographies reflect differences in
land value across neighborhoods
»» “One-step” zoning modification
»» Increased potential for density has
positive impact on land value
»» Additional FAR allows for larger
buildings that support more jobs and
house more people

12. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
ESTIMATE POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
development
capacity (FAR)
#potential
residents
#potential
employees
% res x sf/
resident
+
% emp x sf/
employee x( )=
Estimate the growth of population and employment
4 for each alternative

13. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
OUTPUT
EMPLOYMENT D D
POPULATION
Potential employment
capacity increase
on parcels likely to
redevelop (# jobs)
4-500
501 - 1000
1001 - 1500
1501 - 2000
2001 - 2500
2501 - 3000
Potential residential
capacity increase
on parcels likely to
redevelop (# residents)
3-200
201 - 400
401 - 600
601- 800
801 - 1000
1001 - 1016
Transit investment & upzone
Transit investment
Current conditions
Transit investment & upzone
Transit investment
Current conditions

14. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
OUTPUT
A B CA CB D E
A B CA CB D E
Scenarios 2 & 3: Residential growth beyond baseline
HCT investment & upzone
HCT investment
+3,300
+1,900
+3,100
+1,600
+2,400
+800
+3,000
+800
+3,300
+1,900
+2,900
+1,300

15. DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
A B CA CB D E
OUTPUT
A B CA CB D E
Scenarios 2 & 3: Employment growth beyond baseline
HCT investment & upzone
+2,500 HCT investment
+10,900
+2,300
+6,900
+2,100
+5,400
+2,200
+5,400
+3,000
+4,600
+1,600
+8,200