TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index Falls in April

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index
April 2012 (Full Report)

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TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – April 2012 2

Table Of Contents
I. Methodology 4‐5
II. Auto Demand Index 6‐17
A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)
B.
B By Region
B R i
C. By Area Type
D. By Age
E. By Gender/Marital Status
F.
F By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity
B P t l St t d R /Eth i it
G. By Household Income
III. Demand For New Autos 18‐24
A.
A Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall
Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall
B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time
C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame
D. Vehicle Types Momentum
E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA
Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA
IV. Brand Preferences 25‐32
A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMA
B. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)
V. Contact Information 33


Methodology
TechnoMetrica s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of
TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of
consumers’ intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The
index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February
2007 and April 2007, the strongest selling season in the past decade.
The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question:
– How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say
very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?
We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the
percentage of consumers who are either “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase or
lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months.

Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new
automobiles.

The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles,
which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers.

Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to
Each month TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to
collect the survey data, with a sample size of 900+ respondents. The margin of error is
+/‐ 3.3 percentage points

II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook
A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)
B. By Region
C. By Area Type
D. By Age
E. By Gender and Marital Status
E By Gender and Marital Status
F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity
y
G. By Household Income

Auto Demand Index (Overall)
While h Auto D
Whil the A Demand I d recovered f
d Index d from i all time
its ll i Base = All Respondents
low in March of 49 to 67 this month, it is still down High Low
significantly from January’s level of 105. 2007 129 79
2008 92 66
2009 95 55
2010 97 56
Auto Demand Index 3SMA
2011 94 49
3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average
120 2012 105 49
100

80

60

40

20

0
Mar‐11

Mar‐12
May‐10

May‐11
Dec‐10

Dec‐11
Oct‐10

Oct‐11
Jul‐10

Jan‐11

Jul‐11

Jan‐12
Apr‐10

Aug‐10

Apr‐11

Aug‐11

Apr‐12
Feb‐11

Feb‐12
Sep‐10

Sep‐11
Jun‐10

Nov‐10

Jun‐11

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – April 2012 Nov‐11 7

Auto Demand Index Moving Averages
Base = All Respondents
The 3 Month Simple Moving average shows the purchase intent has broken its momentum.

3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average

95 6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average
12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average
3SMA 6SMA 12SMA
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
May‐10
0

May‐11
1
Dec‐10
0

Dec‐11
1
Oct‐10
0

Oct‐11
1
Mar‐11
1

Mar‐12
2
Apr‐10
0

Jul‐10
0
Aug‐10
0

Jan‐11
1

Apr‐11
1

Jul‐11
1
Aug‐11
1

Jan‐12
2

Apr‐12
2
Feb‐11
1

Feb‐12
2
Sep‐10
0

Sep‐11
1
Jun‐10
0

Nov‐10
0

Jun‐11
1

Nov‐11
1

Momentum
Momentum Measure = Fast Average (3‐month) minus Slow Average (12‐month)
( h) l ( h) Base = All Respondents

After reaching an all time high in February 2012, the momentum is declining.

20 ADI Auto Sales 2.40

16 1.90
12
1.40
8
0.90
4 Auto
ADI
0 0.40 Sales

‐4 ‐0.10
‐8
‐0.60
‐12
‐1.10
‐16

‐20 ‐1.60
Difference between 3SMA‐ Difference between 3SMA auto
ADI and 12SMA‐ADI sales and 12SMA auto sales


Correlation Between ADI and U.S. Auto Sales
ADI and U.S. Car sales have strong Summary
correlation. Training set Test set
R²: 0.5472 # of rows: 49 10
Correlation: 0.7606
Correlation: 0 7606 CCR:
CCR n/a n/a
Average AE: 0.65287 1.7668947
Average MSE: 1.4180596 4.8434803
Tolerance type: Relative Relative
Tolerance:
l 10% 30%
17.626667 # of Good forecasts: 43 (88%) 9 (90%)
16.626667 # of Bad forecasts: 6 (12%) 1 (10%)
Actual Forecasted
ted

15.626667
Actual and Forecast

14.626667
13.626667
12.626667
11.626667
10.626667
9.6266667
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
Rows

Generated with Alyuda Forecaster XL


Adding Gas Prices To ADI Provides Nearly Perfect Sales
Correlation
3SMA Sales predicted using 3SMA‐ADI & 3SMA Gas Prices Summary
R²: 0.7678 Training set Test set
Correlation: 0.9027 # of rows: 49 10

Input Importance Table
I I T bl CCR:
CCR n/a n/a
Average AE: 0.6794808 1.1211821
Input Value, %
Average MSE: 0.8182215 2.0367258
3SMA ‐ADI 63.5%
Tolerance type: Relative Relative
3SMA Gas Prices
3SMA Gas Prices 36.5%
36 5%
Tolerance:
l 10% 30%
# of Good forecasts: 45 (92%) 10 (100%)
17.626667 # of Bad forecasts: 4 (8%) 0 (0%)
16.626667 Actual Forecasted
ed
al and Forecaste

15.626667
14.626667
13.626667
12.626667
Actua

11.626667
10.626667
9.6266667
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
Rows
Gas Prices from Bureau of Economic Analysis
Regression using Alyuda Forecaster XL


By Region 3 SMA
Northeast Midwest Base = All Respondents
150 150
12 SMA = 75 12 SMA = 66
125 125
100 100 87
78 75 80 84 77
66 72 68
75 91 75 63
83 50
50 50 44

25 25
0
0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

South West
150 150 12 SMA = 64
125 111 125
102 100
100 79 80 100 78
75 66 68
75 75 65 60 62
66 52
50 50
25 12 SMA = 78 25
0 0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?

By Area Type 3 SMA
Urban Suburban
150 12 SMA = 77 150 12 SMA = 77
125 125 105
100 83 88 86 80 89 91
72 77 100 85
71 78 76
75 69
75
50
50
25
25
0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Rural
150 12 SMA 63
12 SMA = 63
125
100 81 86
77
63
75 53 60
44
50
25
0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


By Age 3 SMA
18‐24
200 12 SMA = 114 25‐44
200 12 SMA = 92
175
134 175
150 120 129 131
150 119
125 110 106 110
90 125 95 93
100 100 78
68 63
75 75
50 50
25 25
0 0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

45‐64 65+
200 200 12 SMA = 34
12 SMA 34
12 SMA = 60
175 175
150 150
125 125
100 100
65 69 70 72 67 62
75 56 75
35 37 41 37
50 50 32 31 25
25 25
0 0
O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12 O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12


By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMA
Male Female
150 12 SMA = 80 150
12 SMA = 65
125 109 125
97 97
100 75 78 82 78 100 77
72 70
75 62 62 62
75 52
50 50
25 25
0 0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Married Single
150
50 12 SMA = 75 150
50
12 SMA = 69
125 106 125
95 91
100 74 82 76 100 74
70 72
65 60 63 63
75 75 56
50 50
25 25
0 0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMA
Parents Non‐Parents
150 150
116 12 SMA = 62
125 101 109 125
91 95 94
100 88 100 78 83
72
75 75 57 64 60
48
50 50
25 12 SMA = 93 25
0 0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Black/Hispanic 140 White
150 134 150
12 SMA = 64
125 111 125
94
100 87 100
76 71 75
62 69
75 59 75 58 63 59
50 50
25 12 SMA = 87 25
0 0
O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12 O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12


By Household Income 3 SMA
Under 30K 30K‐50K
150 150
12 SMA = 64
125 104 125
93
100 82 100 76 77
74
63 63 61 64
75 56 75 53
51 42
50 50
25 25
12 SMA = 68
0 0
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

50K‐100K 100K+
150 150
12 SMA = 68 119
125 125 107 110
95 102 96
88
100 79 100
70 73 67 66
75 58 61 75
50 50
25 25 12 SMA = 93
0 0
O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12 O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12


III. Demand For New Autos
A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall
B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time
C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame
D. Vehicle Types Momentum
E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA
E Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA

Vehicle Purchase Plans
April 2012
l Base = All Respondents

Likely
11%
In April, the share of Americans who
Not Likely said they were likely to purchase or
89% lease a new vehicle in the next six
months is 11%, up from 8% in March.

25% Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time

20% Likely 3 month SMA

15%

10%

5%

0%
May‐10

May‐11
Dec‐10

Dec‐11
Oct‐10

Oct‐11
Mar‐11

Mar‐12
Apr‐10

Jul‐10

ug‐10

an‐11

Apr‐11

Jul‐11

ug‐11

an‐12

Apr‐12
eb‐11

eb‐12
ep‐10

ep‐11
un‐10

Nov‐10

un‐11

Nov‐11
Au

Au
Ju

Ju
Fe

Fe
Ja

Ja
Se

Se
J

J
O

O
A

A

A

Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame
April 2012
l Base = Potential Customers

100% Not Sure
90% 4%
Within 1
80% Month
16%
70% Between 4
Between 4
& 6 Months
60%
61%
50%

40%
Between 2
Between 2
30% & 3 Months
19%
20% Of these likely to purchase or lease, 16% say
will do so within one month, while 19% say
10%
they will do so within 2 to 3 months, while
y ,
0% most (61%) are planning to do so further out
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 (within 4 to 6 months).

Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure

In April the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one month
April,
increased to 16%.

Q. Will you make your purchase within the next month, 2 to 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months?

Gas Prices Delay Vehicle Purchase Timeframe
April 2012

Overall By Age
Those who said yes
Those who said yes
Yes
No
27%
73%
41%
32%
25%
14%
In April, 27% of respondents said they have
delayed the purchase of a new vehicle due to
gas prices. 18‐24 25‐44 45‐64 65+

By Region By Household Income
Those who said yes Those who said yes

35% 33%
26% 27% 28% 27% 26% 23%

Northeast Midwest South West Under $30K $30K‐$50K $50K‐$75K Above $75K
Q. What impact has today's gas prices had on your driving habits? Have you or are you delaying the purchase of
a new car that you wanted to buy within the next six months?

Vehicle Type Momentum
April 2012

12 Month Average 3 Month Average

Negative Change Positive Change

31%

27%

20%

14%
13% 12%
11%
10%
8% 8%
7% 6% 7%
6%
5% 5%

Mid‐size Small SUV Pickup Full‐size Minivan Sub‐compact or Large SUV Compact
Mini

Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?

Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time ‐ 3 SMA
Base = Potential Customers
Subcompact/Mini Compact
40% 40%
12 SMA = 6 12 SMA = 14

30% 30%
19% 20%
20% 14%
20% 14% 11%
12% 9% 8% 8%
7% 5% 10%
10% 4% 4%
2%
0%
0% O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Mid‐Sized Full‐Sized
40% 34% 40%
32% 31% 29% 12 SMA = 8
25% 27%
30% 33% 30%

20% 20% 14% 15%
9% 13%
9%
10% 10% 7% 6%
12 SMA = 31
0% 0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA
Pickup Truck Base = Potential Customers
Minivan
12 SMA = 7 12 SMA = 11
30% 30%

%
20% 20%
12% 12% 11%
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10%
10% 4% 5% 10%
4%

0% 0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Small SUV Large SUV
12 SMA = 13 12 SMA = 7
30% 30%

20% 20%
14%
11% 12% 12%
9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 8%
6% 8%
10% 8% 10% 6%

0% 0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


IV. Brand Preferences
A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy
B. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today
April 2012


19%

15%
14% 14%
12% 12%

8% 8%
7%
5% 5%
4%
3% 3%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
1%

Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda Nissan GMC Hyundai Chrysler Dodge Subaru

Sorted by 3SMA


By Vehicle Origin
April 2012

100%
90% Likely to Purchase by Origin
80%
12 Month Average
3 Month Average
70%
60%
50%
40% 43% 41%
38%
30% 31%

20%
10% 6% 7%

0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 American Asian European

European Asian American

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

Luxury vs. Non‐Luxury
April 2012

3 Month Average
100%
N t
Not
90% Sure
14%
Non‐
80%
Luxury
70% 76%
Luxury
60% 10%
50%

40%

30% 12 Month Average
20% Not
Sure
10% 12%
Non‐
0% Luxury
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 78%

Luxury Non‐Luxury
Luxury
uxury
10%

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)
Ford Toyota
30% 12 SMA = 19 12 SMA = 12
30%
21%
18% 17% 19%
20% 15% 15% 20%
13% 14%
10% 11% 12%
10% 9% 8%
10% 10%

0% 0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Chevrolet Honda

30% 12 SMA = 12 30% 12 SMA = 8

20% 14% 15% 16% 14% 20%
14% 13%
11% 10% 12%
9% 7% 8%
10% 10% 8% 6%

0% 0%
O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12 O‐11
O 11 N‐11
N 11 D‐11
D 11 J‐12
J 12 F‐12
F 12 M‐12
M 12 A‐12
A 12


Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5‐8)
GMC Dodge
12 SMA = 4 12 SMA = 2
30% 30%

20%
% 20%

10% 6% 6% 7%
5% 10%
3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2%
2% 1% 1% 2%
0% 0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12

Nissan Chrysler
12 SMA = 5 30% 12 SMA = 2
30%

20% 20%

7% 10%
10% 4% 6% 3%
4% 2% 2% 2%
3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%

0% 0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9‐10)
Hyundai Subaru
12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 2
30% 30%

20%
% %
20%

10% 10%
2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1%
2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
0% 0%
O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12 O‐11 N‐11 D‐11 J‐12 F‐12 M‐12 A‐12


Conclusions

The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetrica’s
research has shown high gasoline prices is the biggest wildcard car manufacturers  face
today. This is highly likely to produce a drop in car sales during the second quarter.
y g y y p p g q

Only 11% of Americans are considering buying a new car within the next six months, up
from 8% in March, but down significantly from the January high.

Persisting high gasoline prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troubles
of the already vulnerable auto industry.    Further, a sharp slump in car sales has
immense potential to significantly affect the economy and employment.

Auto manufacturers and their dealers must proactively prepare for a sales slowdown.
Auto factories take a long time to alter production rates and no manufacturer wants to
have too many cars in inventory.  The same holds true for car dealers, who must finance
have too many cars in inventory The same holds true for car dealers who must finance
the unsold cars in their inventory.

A rational energy policy, which acknowledges the realities of our resources, our
preferences as consumers, and the realities of our environment, may be the best way to
reduce America’s gas pains disappear.

Contact Information

To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.
Contact: Raghavan Mayur
Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001
Ramsey, NJ 07446
Phone: 800‐328‐TECH (8324)
201‐986‐1288
Fax: 201‐986‐0119
Email: mayur@technometrica.com
mayur@technometrica com
Web: www.technometrica.com


TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index Falls in April

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TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index Falls in April