09 21-11 forecast2012

CALIFORNIA HOUSING
MARKET 2012 FORECAST

Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist

Overview

US and California Economies
California Housing Market
CA Regional Housing Markets
2011 Annual Market Survey
2012 Housing Market Forecast

2011: A Year of Wild Cards
Political
Change
on
Oil Price Spikes Capitol
Hill
Arab Uprising
Sovereign
Debt
Crisis in
EuroZone

Debt Limit
Ceiling &
Downgrade Stock
of US Debt Market
Volatility

Gross Domestic Product: Stall Speed
2010: 2.8%; 2011 Q1: 0.4% Q2: 1.0%
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $
8%
7%
ANNUAL QTRLY
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Q2-10

Q4-10

Q2-11

Components of GDP:
Consumer Spending Weak; Gov’t Sector Down
Quarterly Percent Change
3.0
2.5 Q3 2010
Q4 2010
2.0
Q1 2011
1.5 Q2 2011
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Consumption Fixed Nonres. Net Exports Government
Investment
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumers Pulling Back
Home Equity & Reverse Wealth Effect
Consumer Spending 2011 Q1: 2.7% Q2: 0.4%
8%
QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE
6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%
1Q-2000

1Q-2001

1Q-2002

1Q-2003

1Q-2004

1Q-2005

1Q-2006

1Q-2007

1Q-2008

1Q-2009

1Q-2010

1Q-2011
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Unemployment Stubbornly High
August 2011
California (12.1%) vs. United States (9.1%)
14%
CA US
12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

U.S. Job Growth: Flat in August
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 8.4 million
Since Jan’10: +1.8 million
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
-100,000
-200,000
-300,000
-400,000
-500,000
-600,000
-700,000
-800,000
-900,000
Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Jul-11
Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

California Job Growth Faltering
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million
Since Jan’10: +188,100
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
-20000
-40000
-60000
-80000
-100000
-120000
-140000
-160000
May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11
Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09
Nov-08

Sep-09

Mar-10
Nov-09

Sep-10

Mar-11
Nov-10
Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Where are California’s Jobs?
Employment Trends:
Construction & Financial Biggest Losers

Year to
Industry 2005 Jul-11
Date
Mining and Logging 23,600 27,600 4,000
Construction 905,300 567,300 -338,000
Manufacturing 1,502,600 1,257,600 -245,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2,822,100 2,641,500 -180,600
Information 473,600 455,400 -18,200
Financial Activities 920,300 755,800 -164,500
Professional & Business Services 2,160,700 2,136,200 -24,500
Educational & Health Services 1,593,400 1,837,000 243,600
Leisure & Hospitality 1,475,200 1,531,600 56,400
Other Services 505,500 484,500 -21,000
Government 2,420,200 2,380,200 -40,000
TOTAL 14,802,500 14,074,700 -727,800

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

100
120
140
160

20
40
60
80
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
INDEX, 100=1985

Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
August 2011: 44.5

Jan-08
Jul-08
Lowest Since April ‘09

Jan-09
Jul-09
Consumer Confidence Slipping

Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11

Crisis of Confidence:
Small Business Optimism Down

Source: National Federation of Independent Business

Consumer Prices Low but Heading Higher
CPI August 2011: All Items +3.8% YTY; Core +2.0% YTY

PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984

6%
All Items
5%
Core
4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

California vs. U.S. Sales

US Home Sales CA Home Sales
7,000,000 700,000
6,000,000 600,000
5,000,000 500,000
4,000,000 400,000
3,000,000 300,000
2,000,000 200,000
1,000,000 100,000
0 0


California vs. U.S. Median Price

US Median Price CA Median Price
$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0


Housing Affordability: Records Highs
California Vs. U.S.
CA US
100%
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY
90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Q1 2000
Q3 2000
Q1 2001
Q3 2001

Q1 2002
Q3 2002
Q1 2003

Q3 2003
Q1 2004
Q3 2004

Q1 2005
Q3 2005
Q1 2006

Q3 2006
Q1 2007
Q3 2007
Q1 2008

Q3 2008
Q1 2009
Q3 2009

Q1 2010
Q3 2010
Q1 2011
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

CA Underwater Mortgages

Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA
40%
35%
30.2%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
4.6%
5%
0%
Q4-2009

Q1-2010

Q2-2010

Q3-2010

Q4-2010

Q1-2011

Q2-2011
SOURCE: CoreLogic

Mortgage Rates @ Historical Lows
Debt Down Grade Ignited Flight to Quality
FRM ARM
6.00%
MONTHLY WEEKLY
5.00%

4.00%

3.00%

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%

9.15.11
2009.01

2009.04

2009.07

2009.10

2010.01

2010.04

2010.07

2010.10

2011.01

2011.04

2011.07

8.4.11

8.25.11

Classic Liquidity Trap: Consumers Deleveraging
Low Rates and Low Borrowing
10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2% FRM
ARM
1%
Federal Funds
0%
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

US Deficit Highest in Decades
2010: 11% of GDP (Revenues – Expenses)
4.0%
Deficit as a % of GDP
2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: US Treasury, BEA, compiled by C.A.R.
Note: Positive = Surplus

US Debt Jumped as Government
Responded to Financial Crisis
2010: 93% of GDP
100.0%
90.0%
Debt as a % of GDP
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1974

1996
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972

1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994

1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: US Treasury, compiled by C.A.R.

Obama Jobs Proposal

What:
$450 Billion stimulus: Tax cuts ($250B) and infrastructure
spending ($200B)
Why:
Economy is stalled/Avoid double-dip
Zero job growth in August/high unemployment
Stabilize confidence: consumer, business, investor
How:
Increase taxes on the rich
Entitlement Reform
Tax Reform

Federal Issues – Critical Concerns

High-cost Loan Limit - expires 10/1/11

Future of Fannie and Freddie in flux - Increase
guarantee fee likely

FHA targeted for market share drop

Tax Reform on the horizon – MID?

QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage)
20% Down – Is the future of the 30 year
mortgage in doubt?

U.S. Economic Outlook

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
•
US GDP 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 1.7% 2.0%

Nonfarm Job
1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.0% 0.9%
Growth

Unemployment 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9%

CPI 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.3%

Real Disposable
Income, % 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5%
Change
Forecast Date: September 2011

California Economic Outlook

2005 2006 •
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f

Nonfarm Job
1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1%
Growth

Unemployment
5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.2%
Rate

Population
1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Growth
Real Disposable
Income, % 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0%
Change

Forecast Date: September 2011


California Sales of Existing Homes
and Median Price
Housing Cycle Comparisons 1970- 2011
UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $ Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price

700,000
-44%
600,000

500,000
-61% -25%
400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
1970

1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

Dollar Volume of Sales
Down 5% in 2011, Up 3% in 2012
$ in Billion % Change
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change

$350 50%
$327
37% 40%
$300
24% 30%
$250
26% 20%

$200 16% 10%
2%
$150 3% 0%
$129
-2% -1.0%
-5% -10%
$100
$150 $143 $147
-20%
-19%
$50 -22%
-27% -30%

$0 -40%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Sales of Existing Detached Homes and
Pacific West Consumer Confidence
California, August 2011 Sales: 497,390 Units, Down 0.4% YTD, Up 10.2% YTY

UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX

700,000 160

600,000 140
120
500,000
100
400,000
80
300,000
60
200,000
40
100,000 20
0 0
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

Median Price of Existing
Detached Homes
California, August 2011: $297,060, Down 7.4% YTY
$700,000 P: May-07
$594,530
$600,000

$500,000 T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-88

MONTHS
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98

Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Unsold Inventory Index

Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
California, August 2011: 5.0 Months

Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11

Unsold Inventory Index (Months)

Price Range (Thousand) Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11

$1,000K+ 11.1 9.2 9.1
$750-1000K 7.0 6.9 6.2
$500-750K 6.4 6.3 5.6
$300-500K 5.7 5.6 5.2
$0-300K 4.8 5.1 4.6


Unsold Inventory By Price Range
Jan 2005 – August 2011
MONTHS
30
$0 - 300K

$300-500K
25
$500-750K

$750-1000K
20 $1,000K+-

All

15

10

5

0
Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Apr-05
Jul-05

Apr-06
Jul-06

Apr-07
Jul-07

Apr-08
Jul-08

Apr-09
Jul-09

Apr-10
Jul-10

Apr-11
Jul-11
Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Market Breakdown:
Equity v. Distressed
Sales

Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales

60% Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11

44.5% 42.9% 43.7%
40%

24.7% 25.2% 24.4%
19.3% 18.9%
20% 17.5%

0%
REOs Short Sales Distressed Sales


Tight Supply of Inventory
for REO Sales
Aug-11
Unsold
Inventory Index
(Months)
8.1
9
8
7 5.7
6
5
4 2.6
3
2
1
0
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales

Distressed Sales: Bay Area
(Percent of Total Sales)
Aug-11
100%

80%
71%
60%
48%

40% 27% 43%
25% 31%
20%

0%
Marin
Napa
San
Mateo Santa
Clara Solano
Sonoma


REO & Short Sales: Bay Area
100% Aug 2011

80% Short Sales
REO Sales
60%
26%
40% 20%
15% 18%
20%
28% 15% 21% 45%
13%
0% 11%
10% 24%
Marin
Napa
San
Mateo Santa
Clara Solano
Sonoma


Distressed Sales: Southern CA
Aug-11
100%

80%
62% 64%
60%
44%

40% 33%

20% 27%

0%
Los
Angeles Orange
Riverside
San
Bernardino San Diego


REO & Short Sales: Southern CA

100% Aug 2011

80% Short Sales
REO Sales
60%
14%
26%
40%
24%

20% 20%
20% 35% 49%
12% 8%
0%
19%
Los
Angeles Orange
Riverside
San
Bernardino San Diego

Distressed Sales: Central Valley
Aug-11
100%

73%
80%
67%
59%
60% 62%
60%

40%

20%

0%
Madera
Merced
San Benito
Sacramento
Kern

REO & Short Sales: Central Valley

100% Aug 2011
Short Sales
80% REO Sales
7%
60%
23% 30%
40% 24% 19%
67%

20% 36%
37%
38% 41%
0%
Madera
Merced
San Benito
Sacramento
Kern


Distressed Sales: Rest of California
Aug-11
100%

80%
59% 64%
60% 62%
42%
45% 56%
40% 31% 48%
35%
20%

0%


REO & Short Sales: Rest of California
100% Aug 2011

80%
Short Sales
REOs
60%
11% 7%

40% 8% 25%
5%
48% 7% 57%
13% 9%
20% 34%
25% 36% 20%
32% 51%
0% 39%
15%


California Foreclosure Filings
August 2011

NTS: 24,260, -16.9% YTD • NOD: 32,338, -21.5% YTD
Notice of Trustee Sale - Counts Notice of Defaults - Counts

65,000 6 Month Average:
60,000
NTSs: 23,806
55,000
50,000 NODs: 23,625
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-10
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Sep-10

Jan-11
May-07

May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11
Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11
SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

CA Foreclosure Outcomes
August 2011
REO: -12.2% YTD • 3rd Party: -4.1% YTD • Cancel: -19.7% YTD
REOs Sold to 3rd Party Cancellations

6 Month Average:
30,000
REO: 10,880
25,000 3rd Party: 3,616
Cancelled: 14,447
20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Apr-07

Jul-07

Apr-08

Jul-08

Apr-09

Jul-09

Apr-10

Jul-10

Apr-11

Jul-11
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

CA Foreclosure Inventories
August 2011
Preforeclosure: -17.5% YTD • Schedule for Sale: -17.8% YTD •
Bank Owned: 7.0% YTD
6 Month Average:
Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned Preforeclosure: 115,742

Schedule for Sale:
200,000 105,138
Bank Owned: 108,635

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Apr-07

Jul-07

Apr-08

Jul-08

Apr-09

Jul-09

Apr-10

Jul-10

Apr-11

Jul-11
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

San Jose
Preforeclosure: 1,367 • Auction: 2,166 •
Bank Owned: 617

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11

Santa Clara
Preforeclosure: 86 • Auction: 131 • Bank Owned: 41


Palo Alto


San Francisco


South Lake Tahoe


Sacramento
Preforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560


Stockton
Preforeclosure: 895 • Auction: 1,093 • Bank Owned: 691


Los Angeles
Preforeclosure: 2,975 • Auction: 4,659 • Bank Owned: 1,331


Anaheim


Irvine


Newport Beach


San Diego
Preforeclosure: 2,016 • Auction: 2,001 • Bank Owned: 797


Commercial Outlook
Industrial
 US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 13.0, 12.2%, 10.0%
 Better in LA, Orange County, San Bernardino,
San Diego, and Oakland than elsewhere in US
 Need gains in trade and mfg to improve
Retail
 US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 13.0%, 12.3%,
11.5%
 Vacancy rates lower in most CA metro areas,
except Sacramento
 Fundamentals weak across markets of the state,
need increased consumer spending to reverse
trend

Commercial Outlook

Office
 US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 16.6%, 16.4%,
16.0%
 Weak markets because of job losses across
many sectors
 SF and LA outperforming the US

Multi-Family
 US Vacancy Rate 2011-2013: 5.6, 4.7%, 4.4%
 All CA metro areas outperform US averages
 Push from problems in owner-occupied sector

Northern CA, August 2011: 1,242 Units, Up 9.3% YTD, Up 24.6% YTY

1,800 160

1,600 140

1,400
120
1,200
100
1,000
80
800
60
600
40
400

200 20

0 0
Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®;
The Conference Board

Home Sales in Northern California
Aug-10 Aug-11

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Butte Humbolt Lake Paradise Placer Shasta Siskiyou South Tahoe Tehama
County County County Lake Sierra
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® Tahoe

Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
Northern CA, August 2011: $223,890, Down 11.5% YTY
$450,000

$400,000

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0
Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Northern California
Region Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-Y
Butte $243,420 $196,430 $201,320 2.5% -17.3%
Humbolt $252,780 $232,999 $223,863 -3.9% -11.4%
Lake County $132,857 $118,888 $123,636 4.0% -6.9%
Paradise $194,999 $134,999 $163,333 21.0% -16.2%
Placer County $292,499 $264,383 $266,233 0.7% -9.0%
Shasta $171,176 $154,705 $162,917 5.3% -4.8%
Siskiyou County $130,000 $130,000 $116,666 -10.3% -10.3%
South Lake Tahoe $295,454 $238,888 $338,889 41.9% 14.7%
Tahoe Sierra $474,999 $397,221 $450,000 13.3% -5.3%
Tehama $127,500 $131,428 $123,333 -6.2% -3.3%


Northern Wine Country, Aug. 2011:
620 Units, Up 3.2% YTD, Up 17.2% YTY
1000 160
900 140
800
120
700
600 100
500 80
400 60
300
40
200
100 20
0 0
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11

Home Sales in Northern Wine Country
Aug-10 Aug-11

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Mendocino Napa Sonoma


Northern Wine Country, August 2011:
$330,070, Down 12.5% YTY
$700,000

$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11

Northern Wine Country

Region Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-Y

Mendocino $ 258,330 $ 214,290 $ 201,920 -5.8% -21.8%
Napa $ 394,230 $ 334,780 $ 354,760 6.0% -10.0%
Sonoma $ 378,830 $ 333,490 $ 339,200 1.7% -10.5%


Bay Area, August 2011: 3,895 Units, Up 0.5% YTD,
Up 12.1% YTY
UNITS INDEX
Sales Consumer Confidence
8,000 160

7,000 140

6,000 120

5,000 100

4,000 80

3,000 60

2,000 40

1,000 20

0 0
Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Home Sales in Bay Area Counties
Aug-10 Aug-11

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
Alameda Contra Marin Napa San San Mateo Santa Solano Sonoma
Costa Francisco Clara
(Central
County)

Bay Area, August 2011: $498,190, Down 9.2% YTY
$900,000

$800,000

$700,000

$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000
Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Bay Area Counties

County Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 M-t-M Y-t-Y

Alameda $ 515,620 $ 462,890 $ 468,900 1.3% -9.1%
Contra Costa (Central County) $ 670,450 $ 618,420 $ 607,310 -1.8% -9.4%
Marin $ 794,120 $ 761,030 $ 806,550 6.0% 1.6%
Napa $ 394,230 $ 334,780 $ 354,760 6.0% -10.0%
San Francisco $ 675,780 $ 648,330 $ 632,270 -2.5% -6.4%
San Mateo $ 780,000 $ 729,900 $ 742,000 1.7% -4.9%
Santa Clara $ 625,000 $ 607,000 $ 595,000 -2.0% -4.8%
Solano $ 207,090 $ 190,560 $ 197,880 3.8% -4.4%
Sonoma $ 378,830 $ 333,490 $ 339,200 1.7% -10.5%


Home Sales in Central Valley Region
Aug-10 Aug-11

1800

1600

1400

1200
1000

800
600

400
200
0
d)

a

d

re
y
no

to

ito
y

er

ce

nt
nt
l

la
en
fie
es

n
ad

ou
u

er

Tu
Be
m
Co
s
Fr

M

M

C
er

a

n
cr
er
s
ak

Sa
g

Sa
ac
(B

in

Pl
K
n
er

K

Central Valley Regions


Fresno $149,880 $ 139,470 $ 145,730 4.5% -2.8%
Kern (Bakersfield) $142,700 $ 139,900 $ 135,000 -3.5% -5.4%
Merced $121,870 $ 113,080 $ 126,670 12.0% 3.9%
Sacramento $186,750 $ 168,060 $ 167,040 -0.6% -10.6%


Central Valley Regions


Fresno $ 149,880 $ 139,470 $ 145,730 4.5% -2.8%
Kern (Bakersfield) $ 142,700 $ 139,900 $ 135,000 -3.5% -5.4%
Kings County $ 168,570 $ 114,290 $ 130,000 13.7% -22.9%
Madera $ 142,500 $ 92,500 $ 128,750 39.2% -9.6%
Merced $ 121,870 $ 113,080 $ 126,670 12.0% 3.9%
Placer County $ 292,500 $ 264,380 $ 266,230 0.7% -9.0%
Sacramento $ 186,750 $ 168,060 $ 167,040 -0.6% -10.6%
San Benito $ 280,000 $ 242,500 $ 239,900 -1.1% -14.3%
Tulare $ 138,420 $ 114,230 $ 124,680 9.1% -9.9%


Central Coast, Aug. 2011 Sales: 2,296 Units, Up 2.1% YTD,
Up 18.5% YTY

1100 160
1000
140
900
800 120

700 100
600
80
500
400 60

300 40
200
20
100
0 0
Jul-98

Jul-99

Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; The Conference Board

Home Sales in Central Coast Region
Aug-10 Aug-11

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Monterey Atascadero Paso Pismo San Luis Lompoc Santa Santa
Robles Coast Obispo Valley Barbara Maria


09 21-11 forecast2012

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