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Operationalizing SJOSH for national economies - ISEE2016
1. Operationalizing the safe and just
space for humanity in national
economies
Peter Søgaard Jørgensen
Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere,
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
@PSJorgensen – www.biosustainability.info
psjorgensen@kva.se
2. The Safe and Just Operating Space for Humanity
- SJOSH
Raworth 2012
4. SJOSH – SDGs – decoupling
Rockström and Sukhdev – EAT forum 2016
5. National performance?
• Territorial socio-economic
and evironmental
conditions
England, Scotland, Wales, South Africa
Cole et al. 2015 OXFAM
Dearing et al. 2014 GEC
Ecosystem stability
7. Questions
• What are feasible approaches to national downscaling that
account for trade?
• Under which accounting frameworks are socio-economic
variables decoupling from environmental impact?
Methods
• Material decoupling under apparent vs. final consumption
• End-point elasticities
• 1990-2008
• 160 countries covered by global statistical databases
Jørgensen et al. in prep
8. SJOSH and material flows
Material
consumption
Socio-economic
conditions
Question
Domestic socio-economic
progress per domestic
material consumption
(apparent consumption)
Domestic socio-economic
progress per global
material consumption
(final consumption)
10. Effect of consumption perspective on GDP
Jørgensen et al. in prep
change in category
11. Group variable
Education Gross enrolment ratio, pre-primary, total
Gross enrolment ratio, primary, total
Gross enrolment ratio, secondary, total
Gender Share of Women (Lower House)
Health HIV rate in adults (15-49 years)
Infant mortality rate
Life expectancy at birth
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)
Income GDP per Capita
Jobs Unemployment total
Unemployment youth
Sanitation WasteWaterCollect2011.csv
WasteWaterTreatment2011.csv
Equity Income share held by lowest 10 % quantile
Income share held by lowest 20 % quantile
Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty
Technology Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)
Water Population supplied by water supply industry
Broader set of social indicators
Jørgensen et al. in prep
18. Summary
• SJOSH for national economies should take embodied
environmental impacts into account
• Changing to a final consumption perspective changes the
decoupling relationship from U-shaped to steadily declining
• Decoupling of final consumption becomes relatively more
difficult at a GDP per capita > 10 k USD
• Radically new economic models are needed to address
SJOSH and SDGs challenge