Consumer Snapshot September 2014

www.ProsperDiscovery.com
Consumer Snapshot
september 2014

www.ProsperDiscovery.com © 2014, Prosper®
sentiment
strategy
september 2014
Disclaimer: Prosper Business Development and its affiliated companies (“Prosper”) make no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
holiday preview

sentiment
consumer confidence
sentiment perks up three points from August to 44.7%, the highest reading since pre-recession Oct-07 (44.8%)
very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy {adults 18+}
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics
37.4%
28.3%
43.2%
44.7%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Govt.
Shutdown
13 month summary
finally breaking free from the 42%-ish holding pattern that has characterized 2014, current confidence in the economy is tracking 20% ahead of Sep-13 and just above the previous 13 month high in Jan-14

sentiment
very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy {adults 18+}
has confidence finally recovered?
not only does the current figure represent the first September reading to register above 40% since the Great Recession, but it eclipses pre-recession Sep-07 (41.2%)
consumer confidence
sentiment perks up three points from August to 44.7%, the highest reading since pre-recession Oct-07 (44.8%)
13 month summary
41.2%
28.3%
29.8%
27.4%
22.7%
37.9%
37.4%
44.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
is this elevated level of confidence sustainable?
finally breaking free from the 42%-ish holding pattern that has characterized 2014, current confidence in the economy is tracking 20% ahead of Sep-13 and just above the previous 13 month high in Jan-14
Sep-14 also marks the highest September reading since 2004 (45.6%)

strategy
practicality & focus on needs
{adults 18+}
practicality eases
while the increase in confidence didn’t deter consumers’ penchant toward practicality, the current reading (42.4%) has lowered 10%+ from a year ago
consumers are allowing their eyes to wander when at the store, however, as 46.9% report that they focus on just the necessities, dropping three points from August
fewer focus on needs
48.1%
42.4%
51.9%
46.9%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT

strategy
practicality & focus on needs
{adults 18+}
practicality eases
while the increase in confidence didn’t deter consumers’ penchant toward practicality, the current reading (42.4%) has lowered 10%+ from a year ago
consumers are allowing their eyes to wander when at the store, however, as 46.9% report that they focus on just the necessities, dropping three points from August
fewer focus on needs
while practicality and focus on needs have receded since their height during the recession, these indicators remain elevated compared to pre-recession Sep-07
the “new normal” still applies
36.7%
51.1%
42.4%
43.2%
58.4%
46.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Sep-07
Sep-11
Sep-14
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
additionally, consumers remain focused on paying down debt and increasing their savings

holiday preview
preliminary holiday gift spending plans
{adults 18+ who have holiday spending plans in mind}
will spending perk up in 2014?
those planning to spend “more” on gifts this holiday season rises to 12.0% from 8.7% a year ago, while fewer (33.2%) plan to spend “less” y/y
54.8%
33.2%
12.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
I plan on spending more for gifts than last year.
I plan on spending the same for gifts as last year.
I plan on spending less for gifts than last year.

holiday preview
Prosper Holiday Spending Score vs. Estimated Holiday Gift Spending
{adults 18+ who have holiday spending plans in mind}
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics, National Retail Federation
Prosper Holiday Spending Score
Score has risen 25% y/y, an encouraging sign from consumers
* 2009 - 2012 represent estimated actual holiday gift spending; 2013 represents planned holiday gift spending
directionally speaking, the Score has served as a relatively accurate bellwether for consumers’ holiday intentions
$507
$541
$543
$551
$537
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Holiday Gift Spending (October)*
Prosper Holiday Spending Score (September)
?

holiday preview
Prosper Holiday Spending Score, Indexed to Adults 18+ (Baseline = 100.0)
{shoppers of select retailers}
Prosper Holiday Spending Score
Score has risen 8% y/y, an encouraging sign from consumers
directionally speaking, the Score has served as a relatively accurate bellwether for consumers’ holiday intentions
further investigation revealed that Amazon, Costco, and Macy’s shoppers have some of the most optimistic outlooks for Holiday 2014
for more: Forbes.com
119.4
114.5
110.5
105.0
101.3
101.2
100.5
97.4
94.2
94.1
93.2
93.0
91.8
89.5
82.5
Amazon.com
Costco
Macy's
Sam's Club
Best Buy
Nordstrom
Target
JC Penney
Walmart
TJ Maxx/Marshall's
Kmart
Sears
Kohl's
Ross
Dollar General

thanks
visit ______________________to access:
Consumer Snapshot InsightCenter™
PowerPoint Slides
…and more
Pam Goodfellow
Consumer Insights Director
Prosper Insights & Analytics™
pam@goProsper.com
ProsperDiscovery.com
ConsumerSnapshot.com
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Consumer Snapshot September 2014

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