This presentation is from a talk given by N26 Head of Product Management during #ProductCon London 2020.

5. - Lehua Kamalu, Polynesian Voyaging Society
- Lehua Kamalu, Polynesian Voyaging Society
“The job of the navigator is to see as far into the
future as you can, to make decisions that are
going to protect your crew and your vessel, and
to make sure you’re going on the right path.”

6. Hikalianalia double-hull canoe
Lehua Kamalu

7. That sounds a lot like Product
Management

8. “You’re always looking for the signs.
If you miss them, you could find
yourself lost at sea.”

9. That sounds a lot like Trend
Forecasting

10. But first, what is a trend?

11. A little history

12. noun
trend: to turn or revolve
Origins: High German | Old English, late 16th century
Earliest references in economics, mathematics, and statistics

13. noun
trend: to turn, spin, or revolve
Origins: High German | Old English, late 16th century
Earliest references in economics, mathematics, and statistics
35
70
105
140

14. Today’s leading trend forecasters define a trend as:
The direction in which something tends
to move and which has a consequential
impact on the culture, society, or
business sector through which it moves.

15. My own interpretation of this:
A trend is a sustained manifestation of
change

16. But don’t mistake trend with
trendy

20. Trend
Forecasting Credit
Martin Raymond
Context in tech
Applying this forecasting framework
traditionally used in consumer goods and
media to how we build products
Purpose
Map seemingly disconnected events and
insights into larger patterns and trends
Straight from the source in Martin Raymond’s Trend Forecaster Handbook

21. Some things will be familiar to
you

22. INNOVATORS
EARLY ADOPTERS
EARLY MAJORITY
LATE MAJORITY
LAGGARDS
TREACHEROUS CHASM
DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION

23. How do we identify trends?

24. How do we identify trends?First, we look for signals

25. SIGNALS, SIGNALS, EVERYWHERE

26. But signals without structure can
easily become background noise

27. So we have to organize those
signals into a system that allows
us to make sense of them

28. SORTING THE SIGNALS

29. Signals without structure can easily
become background noise

30. Plotting patterns

31. Megan to describe how we can draw
patterns of seemingly disconnected
signals if we look for the common
denominators (within industries,
demographics, or societal/political
climate)
DRAWING PATTERNS

32. Megan to show examples of patterns
that we’ve plotted at N26: (1) eco
cards, (2) eventually no cards at all,
(3) big tech goes fintech and the
concern for privacy
PATTERNS IN FINTECH

33. The intersection of a trend
and your product

34. Megan to describe how trends that are
seemingly disconnected from your
product will influence it
TRENDS x YOUR PRODUCT

35. Megan to show examples of how we
are framing hypotheses at N26 based
on micro and macro trends
TRENDS x N26

36. Trend toolkit

37. Megan to describe how product
managers can estimate impacts and
consequences of incorporating trend
research into their product decisions
through scenario planning
SCENARIO PLANNING

38. Megan to describe how we use trend
cartograms at N26 to identify
alternative futures of our product
depending on how the trend catches
on
TREND CARTOGRAM

39. CIPHER MODEL

40. Bringing trend forecasting
into your product team’s work

41. • Spot and organize signals
• Plot patterns
• Identify trends
• Plan scenarios
• Trend cartogram
HOW TO USE TREND FORECASTING FOR YOUR PRODUCTS

42. Thank you