Towards a Sustainable Energy System: Technological Challenges By David Serrano

1. Towards a Sustainable Energy System:
Technological Challenges
David Serrano
Rey Juan Carlos University
IMDEA Energy Institute

2. The past and the present
energy system

3. World primary energy consumption
2010 world energy balance:
• Global energy consumption: +5.6%
• Oil: +3.1%; Gas: +7.4%; Coal: +6.3%

4. Coal/peat
Coal/peat Oil
Oil Natural gas
Natural gas Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro
Hydro Biofuels and waste
Biofuels and waste Other*
Other*
1973 Share 2009fuel shares of TPES
1973and 2009 primary energy sources
and of the fuel shares of TPES
1973
1973 2009
2009
Biofuels
Biofuels Biofuels
Biofuels
Hydro and waste Other*
Hydro and waste Other* Hydro and waste
Hydro and waste Other*
1.8% 10.6%
1.8% 10.6% 0.1% Other*
0.1% 2.3% 10.2%
2.3% 10.2%
0.8%
0.8%
Nuclear
Nuclear Coal/peat Nuclear
Coal/peat Nuclear Coal/peat
Coal/peat
0.9%
0.9% 24.6%
24.6% 5.8%
5.8% 27.2 % %
27.2
Natural
Natural
gas
gas Natural
Natural
16.0%
16.0% gas
gas
20.9%
20.9%
Oil
Oil Oil
Oil
46.0%
46.0% 32.8%
32.8%
6 6 111 Mtoe
111 Mtoe 12 150 Mtoe
12 150 Mtoe
66 *Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.
*Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.
Fossil fuels: 86% 80.9%

5. 2 000
0
1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
OECD Middle East Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
China Asia* Latin America Africa Bunkers**
Regional share of the primary energy sources
1973 and 2009 regional shares of TPES
1973 2009
Latin Latin
America Africa
Asia* 3.5% America Africa
3.4% Bunkers** Asia* 4.4% 5.5% Bunkers**
5.6% 3.0% 2.7%
China 12.0%
7.0%
Non- China
OECD 18.7%
Europe
and
Eurasia Non-OECD Europe OECD
15.4% Middle East OECD and Eurasia Middle East 43.3%
0.8% 61.3% 8.6% 4.8%
6 111 Mtoe 12 150 Mtoe
*Asia excludes China.
8 **Includes international aviation and international marine bunkers.

6. Oil reserves versus oil production: the oil peak
AAPG Explorer, March 2007
• New oil discoveries: 6 billion barrels/year
• Oil production: 30 billion barrels/year
• Proven reserves versus unconventional resources
• Real proven reserves could be overestimated

7. 40
20
30
20
10
Non-uniform distribution of the
Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios
North
Years
America
S. & Cent. Europe &
America
Middle
Eurasia East
Africa Asia
Pacific
0 80 85 90 95 00
World proved oil reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 46.2 years of global production, down slightly from the 2009 R/P ratio because of a large increase in world
05 10 0
fossil fuel reserves
production;regionproved reserves rose slightly last year. An increase in Venezuelan official reserve estimates drove Latin America’s R/P ratio to 93.9 years – the world’s
2010 by global History
largest, surpassing the Middle East.
200 800
production (R/P) ratios North America Middle East
S. & Cent. America Asia Pacific
Europe & Eurasia World
n History Africa
Distribution of proved reserves in 1990, 2000 and 2010
100 160 Percentage
World
160
North America
150
S. & Cent. America 600
Europe & Eurasia Middle East
140
Africa S. & Cent. America
Middle East 130 Europe & Eurasia
80
Asia Pacific Africa
120
120 North America
3.3 54.4
Asia Pacific
110 5.4
400
100
60
3.6 63.1 80
90
6.2 9.5
80
70
3.6 65.7 8.5 200
40 2010
60 9.6 40 Total 1383.2
thousand million
50 2000 10.1 barrels
5.9
Total 1104.9
1990 thousand million
40 9.8
Total 1003.2 barrels
20 8.1 thousand million
30
North barrels
S. & Cent. Europe & Middle Africa Asia 0 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0
America America Eurasia East Pacific
20 7.1 8.9
World natural gas proved reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 58.6 years of global production. R/P ratios declined for each region, driven by rising production.
10 The Middle East once again had the highest regional R/P ratio, while Middle East and Former Soviet Union regions jointly hold 72% of the world’s gas reserves.
17.3
& Cent. Europe & Middle Africa Asia 0 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0
s-to-production
merica Eurasia (R/P) ratios
East Pacific
reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 46.2 years of global production, down slightly from the 2009 R/P ratio because of a large increase in world
al proved reserves rose slightly last year. An increase in Venezuelan official reserve estimates drove Latin America’s R/P ratio to 93.9 years – the world’s Distribution of proved reserves in 1990, 2000 and 2010
region
ng the Middle East. History Percentage
7
200 800
North America Middle East
S. & Cent. America Asia Pacific
Europe & Eurasia World Middle East
Africa Europe & Eurasia
of proved reserves in 1990, 2000 and 2010
Asia Pacific
Africa
160 North America
4.0 40.5
600 S. & Cent. America
5.3
erica
asia
a 120 4.5 38.3
7.9
3.3 54.4 4.9
5.4
400
4.1 30.2 8.1
2010
3.6 63.1 80 7.6 Total 187.1
8.7
6.2 9.5 trillion cubic
2000 metres
6.8
8.0 Total 154.3
trillion cubic
1990
3.6 65.7 8.5 200 metres
Total 125.7
2010 7.8
40 Total 1383.2 trillion cubic
thousand million metres
2000 10.1 barrels 43.4
Total 1104.9
1990 thousand million 36.3
9.8 33.7
al 1003.2 barrels
sand million
0 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0
barrels & Cent.
S. Europe & Middle Africa Asia
America Eurasia East Pacific
8.9
ural gas proved reserves in 2010 were sufficient to meet 58.6 years of global production. R/P ratios declined for each region, driven by rising production.
e East once again had the highest regional R/P ratio, while Middle East and Former Soviet Union regions jointly hold 72% of the world’s gas reserves.
17.3
21

8. 2005 49.35 54.52 55.69 56.59
2006 61.50 65.14 67.07 66.02
2007 68.19 72.39 74.48 72.20
2008 94.34 97.26 101.43 100.06
2009 61.39 61.67 63.35 61.92
2010 78.06 79.50 81.05 79.45
*1972-1985 Arabian Light, 1986-2010 Dubai dated. Source: Platts.
†1976-1983 Forties, 1984-2010 Brent dated.
High oil cost and volatility
‡1976-1983 Posted WTI prices, 1984-2010 Spot WTI (Cushing) prices.
Crude oil prices 1861-2010
US dollars per barrel
World events Yom Kippur war
Fears of shortage in US Post-war reconstruction Iranian revolution
Growth of Venezuelan Loss of Iranian Netback pricing Asian financial crisis
production supplies introduced
Pennsylvanian Russian Sumatra Discovery of East Texas field Suez crisis Iraq Invasion
oil boom oil exports production Spindletop, discovered invaded of Iraq
began began Texas Kuwait
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1861-69 1870-79 1880-89 1890-99 1900-09 1910-19 1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-19 0
$ 2010 1861-1944 US average.
$ money of the day 1945-1983 Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura.
1984-2010 Brent dated.
15
• Energy imports in Spain (2008): 55,000 millions of euros
• It accounts for about 19% of the total imports (over 50% of the
commercial deficit)

9. Are we entering a new coal age?

10. China Asia** Latin America Africa
Regional shares of coal production
1973 and 2010 regional shares of
hard coal* production
1973 2010
Non-OECD Europe
China Asia** Latin Non-OECD
and Eurasia China
18.7% 4.8% America Europe and Eurasia
23.2% 0.2% 6.6% 51.1%
Africa
3.0%
Asia**
OECD 13.0%
50.1% OECD Africa Latin America
23.7% 4.2% 1.4%
2 235 Mt 6 186 Mt
*Includes recovered coal.
14 **Asia excludes China.

11. Evolution of the atmospheric CO2 concentration
• 2011: 392 ppm
• 2015: 400 ppm
• 2035: 440 ppm
• 2050: 470 ppm

12. Fuel share of CO2 emissions
1973 and 2009 fuel shares of
CO2 emissions**
1973 2009
Other***
Natural gas 0.1% Coal/peat Other***
14.4% Natural gas 0.4% Coal/peat
34.9% 19.9% 43.0%
Oil Oil
50.6% 36.7%
15 624 Mt of CO2 28 999 Mt of CO2
*World includes international aviation and international marine bunkers.
**Calculated using the IEA’s energy balances and the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines.
CO2 emissions are from fuel combustion only. ***Other includes industrial waste
44 and non-renewable municipal waste.

13. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East Bunkers
1973 and 2009 regional shares of
Regional shares of CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions** 6
1973 2009
Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Europe
Middle East
China and Eurasia 0.9%
and Eurasia
Middle East
Asia*** 5.7% 16.2% China 8.6%
3.0% Bunkers 5.2%
23.7%
3.6% Bunkers
Latin 3.5%
America
2.6%
Asia***
Africa 10.9% Latin
1.9%
OECD America Africa OECD
66.1% 3.4% 3.2% 41.5%
15 624 Mt of CO2 28 999 Mt of CO2
*World includes international aviation and international marine bunkers, which are shown
together as Bunkers. **Calculated using the IEA’s energy balances and the Revised 1996
IPCC Guidelines. CO2 emissions are from fuel combustion only. ***Asia excludes China.
45

14. Evolution of the energy self-sufficiency in Spain
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15. Primary energy share by source in Spain (2009)

16. Power generation by source in Spain
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17. The future energy system:
scenarios

18. World primary energy demand by scenarios
• Current Policies Scenario: extrapolation of present trends.
• New Policies Scenario:
- Enhanced saving and energy efficiency
- Accelerated deployment of technologies currently under
development.
• 450 Scenario:
- The atmospheric CO2 concentration is stabilized at 450 ppm.
- This requires a true revolution in many social and political
aspects.
- Currently emerging technologies should progress to get
the commercial scale.

19. carbon-dioxide equivalent (ppm CO2-eq).
In the New Policies Scenario, world primary energy demand is projected to increase from
12 150 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2009 to 16 950 Mtoe in 2035, an increase
of 40%, or 1.3% growth per year (Figure 2.1).1 Global energy demand increases more quickly
in the Current Policies Scenario, reaching 18 300 Mtoe in 2035, 51% higher than 2009, and
representing average growth of 1.6% per year.
World primary energy demand by scenarios
Figure 2.1 World primary energy demand by scenario
20 000 Current Policies Scenario
Mtoe
18 000 New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
© OECD/IEA, 2011
1. Compound average annual growth rate.
70 World Energy Outlook 2011 - GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS

20. Evolution of CO2 concentration by scenarios

21. Current Policies Scenario
World primary energy demand

22. Current Policies Scenario
World primary energy demand

23. Current Policies Scenario
Per capita primary energy consumption

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25. Evolution of the equivalents CO2 emissions in Spain
EVOLUCIÓN DE LAS EMISIONES DE CO2 EQUIVALENTE EN ESPAÑA. COMPARACIÓN CON COMPROMISO
Cuadro 9.4
DE KIOTO
Miles de
tCO2 eq.
170
1990 283.168
1991 290.626 160
149,7 150,9
1992 298.180 147,0
150 144,8
1993 286.867
139,3 139,4
1994 303.269 140 137,0
131,0 131,1
Índices
1995 314.875 126,8
130 126,4
1996 307.538 122,1
116,6
– 267 –
1997 328.100 120 113,2
1998 337.937 108,7
100 102,9 104,7 106,1
1999 366.302 100,3
2000 379.619 97,7 99,0
110
2001 379.898
90
2002 396.847
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2003 403.750
2004 419.523
2005 433.809
2006 425.975 Compromiso Kioto para 2008-2015: Índice 115.
2007 437.159
2008 403.935 La cifra exacta del año base tomada para el cálculo de la cantidad asignada fue de 289.773.205,032 toneladas de CO2-eq; y la cantidad asignada
2009 367.543 para el compromiso del cumplimiento del Protocolo de Kioto en el período 2008-2012 es de 1.666.195.929 toneladas de CO2 -eq.
2010 341.815 Fuente: Elaboración propia con datos de Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, MR y M.
9

26. The global challenge:
a sustainable energy system
450 Scenario?

27. the Outlook period, more expensive abatement options take a larger share, and the annual
share in abatement of efficiency measures falls to 44% in 2035. The increased adoption of
renewable energy (including biofuels) is the second-most important source of CO2 abatement,
relative to the New Policies Scenario, growing from a combined 19% in 2020 to 25% in 2035, or
a cumulative 24% over the period as 450 Scenario
a whole. Nuclear power grows rapidly in importance and
accounts for a cumulative 9%, while CCS also accounts for an increasing share, growing from
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement
only 3% of total abatement in 2020 to 22% in 2035, or a cumulative 18%.
Figure 6.4 World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the
450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
38
Gt
New Policies Scenario Abatement
36
2020 2035
34
Efficiency 72% 44%
32 Renewables 17% 21%
30 Biofuels 2% 4%
28 Nuclear 5% 9%
26 CCS 3% 22%
24 Total (Gt CO2) 2.5 14.8
450 Scenario
22
20
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Box 6.3 Reaping abatement through efficiency in the 450 Scenario
In the 450 Scenario, energy efficiency policies and measures are the cheapest
abatement option available and the most important source of abatement. Efficiency
is responsible for half of cumulative global abatement relative to the New Policies
Scenario, or 73 Gt, between 2011 and 2035. The role of energy efficiency varies by

28. Alternatives for a sustainable energy system
• Energy consumption savings
• Energy efficiency:
- Generation
- Transportation and transmission
- End-use
• Decarbonization of power production
- Carbon capture and sequestration
- Renewable energies
- Nuclear energy
• Decarbonization of the transport sector
- Biofuels
- Electrification
- Hydrogen

29. 450 Scenario
Technologies for CO2 emissions abatement

30. Potential role of Chemical Engineering in
achieving the global energy challenge
• Combustion: Highly efficient systems: cogeneration, combined
cycle system, supercritical steam.
• CO2: capture and sequestration. Valorization.
• Solar energy: CSP, solar fuels.
• Biomass and biofuels: non-edible raw materials, new
transformation routes, sustainability.
• Energy storage: thermal, thermochemical and electrochemical
systems.
• Novel energy vectors: hydrogen, methanol.
• End-use devices: fuel cells.

31. CO2 capture and sequestration
• CO2 confinement capacity
• Stability
• Environmental effects

32. Net efficiencies of coal power plants

33. CO2 capture alternatives

34. Chemical looping combustion
flue gas
N2, O2 CO2, H2O
2
MyOx
1
Air- Fuel-
reactor reactor
3
MyOx-1
H2O
fuel Noncondensable and
Air Fuel CO2
combustible gases
air bleed
Figure 1: Chemical-looping combustion (CLC).
MyOx and MyOx-1 symbolizes oxidized and Figure 2: Chemical-looping combustion
reduced oxygen carrier particles. using two interconnected fluidized beds.
high velocity fluidized bed where the oxygen carrier particles are transported together with
the air stream to the top of the air reactor, where they are then transferred to the fuel reactor
(3) using a cyclone (2). The fuel reactor is a bubbling fluidized bed reactor, from which the
reduced oxygen carriers are transported back to the air reactor by means of an overflow pipe.
After condensation of the water in the exit gas from the fuel reactor, the remaining CO2 gas is
compressed and cooled to yield liquid CO2, which can be disposed of in various ways. Three
important design criteria are directly related to properties of the oxygen carrier: [2]
1. The amount of oxygen carrier necessary in the two reactors, i.e. the bed masses, is
inversely proportional to the rate of conversion of the oxygen carrier, i.e. the rates of

35. Potential role of Chemical Engineering in
achieving the global energy challenge
Solar fuels

36. Potential role of Chemical Engineering in
achieving the global energy challenge
Solar fuels

37. Potential role of Chemical Engineering in
achieving the global energy challenge
Hydrogen
CO2-free production, infrastructures, on board storage

38. Potential role of Chemical Engineering in
achieving the global energy challenge
Fuel cells
Efficiency, cost, fuels

39. Potential role of Chemical Engineering in
achieving the global energy challenge
Energy storage
Electrical:
• Superconducting magnets
• Supercapacitors…
Supercapacitor Superconducting
module magnet
Mechanical:
• Pumped hydro
• Compressed air
Flywheel
• Flywheels…
Thermal:
• Phase Change Materials
• Molten salts Molten salt tank
in CSP plant
• Steam…
Chemical:
• Batteries
• Hydrogen…
Vanadium flow Li-ion battery
battery plant pack

40. The global challenge:
a sustainable energy system
Is it feasible?

41. Evolution of the public R&D funding in
energy programmes (IEA countries)

42. IMDEA Energy
• Sustainable fuels: biofuels, hydrogen and waste-derived fuels.
• Solar energy: CSP, solar fuels.
• Energy storage: chemical and electrochemical.
• CO2 valorization.
• LCA

43. The global challenge:
a sustainable energy system
“If we do not change direction soon,
we will end up where we are heading”
Lao-Tsé (IV b.c.)