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Outsmart Your Competitors




                           Do LTE and Femtocells Need One Another?


                                               April 26, 2011


                                               Peter Jarich
                                               Service Director, Mobile Ecosystem
                                               Current Analysis
                                               pjarich@currentanalysis.com

    Washington DC / London / Paris                            Follow Current Analysis
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda

            LTE & Femtocells: Getting Our Facts Straight
                          LTE: Why & Where
                          Femtocells: Why and What
            The LTE and Femtocell Intersection Points
            What We’re Not Hearing From the Market




                                                 Follow Current Analysis   2
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Prepping Us For MWC2012




                                               Follow Current Analysis   3
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The LTE Rationale




                         Source: AT&T

                                               Follow Current Analysis   4
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The LTE Rationale




                         Source: AT&T
                                               Follow Current Analysis   5
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The LTE Momentum




                                               Follow Current Analysis   6
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The LTE Small Cells




                                                          Commercial
                                               ≠          Momentum


                                               Follow Current Analysis   7
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The Femtocell Rationale (Today)

              What’s The Femto
              Use Case?




                                               Follow Current Analysis   8
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The Capabilities of HSPA+

           Just your average Twitter conversation…
                          @pnjarich: So, the iPhone 4S tops out at HSPA+ 14.4. Not
                           even 21 Mbps?
                          @GlennF: @pnjarich Why would anyone need more than
                           14.4 Mbps on a phone? Who cares?
                          @pnjarich: @GlennF Operators, that’s who. When you’re
                           trying to maximize network capacity, HSPA+ 21 (or, better
                           yet, 42) matters.
                          @GlennF: @pnjarich Understood.




                                                     Follow Current Analysis       9
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Have We Defined “Femtocell” Yet?




                                               VS.

                                                Follow Current Analysis   10
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
LTE & Scale




                                               Follow Current Analysis   11
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The Fragmentation of Spectrum




                                                                           Think
                                                                         Coverage!


    Think
    Scale!

                                               Follow Current Analysis        12
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
No Spectrum Left Behind




                                                                           Think, “Why
                                                                           TDD Now?”




     Think
Refarming, Auc
tions, Reclamat
    ion, etc.

                                                 Follow Current Analysis        13
  © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
That Means WiFi Too, Right?




                  Source: AT&T



                                               Follow Current Analysis   14
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
…and Multi-Tech Gateways




                      Source: Cisco

                                               Follow Current Analysis   15
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
…and New Backhaul Architectures




                                               Follow Current Analysis   16
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
…and New Backhaul Architectures




                                               Follow Current Analysis   17
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
…and Core Architecture Evangelism




                                                               Circa 2008?




                           Source: Acme Packet



                                                 Follow Current Analysis     18
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Conclusions and Recommendations


         LTE Is Moving Forward                What We’ll Need To
          Fine Without Femtos                   Get There
         The Public Story is Easy                     Subsidies
          to Understand                                Apps
                                                       LTE Story Beyond
         The Residential Story is                      Capacity
          Confounded by…
                                                       Multi-standard
            WiFi
                                                        Femtos
            Coverage vs. Capacity
            3G Capabilities
                                                       Evangelism!


                                               Follow Current Analysis     19
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Thank you
                                               Name: P. Jarich
                                               Title: Service Director, Mobile Ecosystem
                                               Email: pjarich@currentanalysis.com
                                               Phone: 703.788.3792
                                               Twitter: @pnjarich
                                               Website: www.currentanalysis.com




                                                Follow Current Analysis                    20
© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.

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Do LTE and Femtocells Need One Other?

  • 1. Outsmart Your Competitors Do LTE and Femtocells Need One Another? April 26, 2011 Peter Jarich Service Director, Mobile Ecosystem Current Analysis pjarich@currentanalysis.com Washington DC / London / Paris Follow Current Analysis © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Agenda  LTE & Femtocells: Getting Our Facts Straight  LTE: Why & Where  Femtocells: Why and What  The LTE and Femtocell Intersection Points  What We’re Not Hearing From the Market Follow Current Analysis 2 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 3. Prepping Us For MWC2012 Follow Current Analysis 3 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 4. The LTE Rationale Source: AT&T Follow Current Analysis 4 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 5. The LTE Rationale Source: AT&T Follow Current Analysis 5 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 6. The LTE Momentum Follow Current Analysis 6 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 7. The LTE Small Cells Commercial ≠ Momentum Follow Current Analysis 7 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 8. The Femtocell Rationale (Today) What’s The Femto Use Case? Follow Current Analysis 8 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 9. The Capabilities of HSPA+ Just your average Twitter conversation…  @pnjarich: So, the iPhone 4S tops out at HSPA+ 14.4. Not even 21 Mbps?  @GlennF: @pnjarich Why would anyone need more than 14.4 Mbps on a phone? Who cares?  @pnjarich: @GlennF Operators, that’s who. When you’re trying to maximize network capacity, HSPA+ 21 (or, better yet, 42) matters.  @GlennF: @pnjarich Understood. Follow Current Analysis 9 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 10. Have We Defined “Femtocell” Yet? VS. Follow Current Analysis 10 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 11. LTE & Scale Follow Current Analysis 11 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 12. The Fragmentation of Spectrum Think Coverage! Think Scale! Follow Current Analysis 12 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 13. No Spectrum Left Behind Think, “Why TDD Now?” Think Refarming, Auc tions, Reclamat ion, etc. Follow Current Analysis 13 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 14. That Means WiFi Too, Right? Source: AT&T Follow Current Analysis 14 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 15. …and Multi-Tech Gateways Source: Cisco Follow Current Analysis 15 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 16. …and New Backhaul Architectures Follow Current Analysis 16 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 17. …and New Backhaul Architectures Follow Current Analysis 17 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 18. …and Core Architecture Evangelism Circa 2008? Source: Acme Packet Follow Current Analysis 18 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 19. Conclusions and Recommendations LTE Is Moving Forward What We’ll Need To Fine Without Femtos Get There The Public Story is Easy  Subsidies to Understand  Apps  LTE Story Beyond The Residential Story is Capacity Confounded by…  Multi-standard  WiFi Femtos  Coverage vs. Capacity  3G Capabilities  Evangelism! Follow Current Analysis 19 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 20. Thank you Name: P. Jarich Title: Service Director, Mobile Ecosystem Email: pjarich@currentanalysis.com Phone: 703.788.3792 Twitter: @pnjarich Website: www.currentanalysis.com Follow Current Analysis 20 © Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.