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Logistics

Engineering

Supply Chain
Dial In Numbers
(888) 267‐2848 (Domestic)
(973) 413‐6103 (International)
Passcode:  641287

Stifel Capital Markets
Conference Call

December 9, 2013 | 11:00 AM EST

1
Introduction

Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets 
Conference Call
Date:      Monday, December 9, 2013
Time:     11:00 AM EST
Length:  60 minutes

Shale Gas Implications for US 
Manufacturing Renaissance

Crude by Rail 
Update

Taylor Robinson
President

Graham Brisben
CEO

Host
Michael Baudendistel, CFA,
Transportation Analyst
Dial In Numbers
(888) 267‐2848 (Domestic)
(973) 413‐6103 (International)
Passcode:  641287
Replay
(800) 332‐6854 (Domestic)
(973) 528‐0005 (International)
Passcode: 641287

2
About PLG Consulting
» Boutique consulting firm with team members throughout the US
Established in 2001
Over 80 clients and 200 engagements
Significant shale development practice since 2010

Partial Client List

» Practice Areas
Logistics
Engineering
Supply Chain

» Consulting services
Strategy & optimization
Assessments & best practice benchmarking
Logistics assets & infrastructure development
Supply Chain design & operationalization
M&A/investments/private equity

» Specializing in these industry categories:
Energy
Bulk commodities
Manufactured goods
Private Equity
3
Logistics

Engineering

Supply Chain

Shale Gas Implications for US Manufacturing Renaissance
A detailed analysis of shale’s direct impact to the renaissance of US manufacturing

Real World Experience
Strategic Perspective
Depth of Analysis
Hands-on Engagement

Presented by Taylor Robinson
December 9, 2013
PLGConsulting.com

4
Shale Gas Is More Important to US
Industry Competitiveness Than Oil
Oil vs. Gas Price on BTU Basis

» Natural gas is 4X cheaper than oil on a BTU-basis
Innovation will convert more transportation fuels and other energy
requirements to natural gas

$30

WTI Crude ($/MMBTU)

$25
Natural Gas ($/MMBTU)

» US electricity prices are the lowest in the industrial world
US industries are now the power cost leaders
Gas drives an increasing share of the US electricity generation capacity

$20
$15
$10

Chemicals
Resins
Compounds

» Natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel compared to other
hydrocarbons

$5
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: EIA

A
Average Cost of Electricity (2012)

¢/kWh

» US gas downstream products will have world class
competitiveness - are the “building blocks of
manufacturing”

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

31¢ 30¢

18¢
13¢
9¢

7¢

4¢

3¢

5
US Shale Gas History
Gas rig count has decreased significantly,
but gas production has increased – Why?
»

Shale gas prolific supply growth in 2007 &
2008 caused a dramatic price drop in 2009,
rigs shifted to oil & liquids

»

Drilling productivity continues to lower costs
and increase production with less rigs

»

Rig Count by Class vs. Gas Production

And the Liquids (Crude, NGL) wells produce
dry natural gas as a by-product

Representative Productivity Gains – Fayetteville Shale Play

Source: Southwestern Energy investor presentation, September 2013

Source: Bentek, September 2013

6
US Shale Gas Future
»

Abundant US gas supply for the foreseeable future

US Natural Gas Supply/Demand

Low cost reserves in accessible locations near population
US will become a net gas exporter by 2020

»

US gas demand will grow gradually due to:
Coal-fired generation plant converting to gas
More industrial use – steel, fertilizer, methanol
Mexican export via pipeline and LNG export overseas
Increasing use as transportation fuel

US gas cost competitiveness is sustainable
Supply will overwhelm demand as prices approach $5
US government will likely limit LNG export to protect US from
world gas market price
Annual Average Henry Hub Spot Natural Gas Prices

2011 $ per M Btu

»

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, 2013

Source: BENTEK, September 2013

7
Marcellus: Future Gas Play of Choice
»

Marcellus is gas play of choice
Massive scale near highest US population density
Rapid increase in production – now 5th largest production
“country” in the world
Low cost wells with high productivity enables dry gas
profitability for efficient drillers at current price
Export potential for LNG & NGL from Marcus Hook and
other export terminals
However, no ethane crackers in the region, so gas NGLs
need to be piped to Gulf region for further processing

Shale Gas Development Rates

Shale Play IRR

Currently, only
profitable dry 
gas play
Source: Bentek, September 2013

Source: Bentek, September 2013

8
Shale Gas Downstream Products
Inputs

>>

Wellhead >> Direct Output >>

Thermal >>

Fuels >> Raw Materials

>>

Generation

Downstream Products

Steel

Process Feedstocks

Proppants

Fertilizer (Ammonia)

Gas

Home Heating (Propane)

OCTG

Methanol

Other Fuels

Chemicals

NGLs
Feedstock (Ethane)
Feedstock (Propane,
Butane, etc)

Water
Cement

Chemicals and Resins
Chemicals and Resins

Crude

Petroleum Products

Gasoline

Petrochemicals

Diesel, Jet Fuel

Other Refined Products

» Shale crude oil makes the headlines, but shale gas & NGLs will drive US industry
and manufacturing cost competitiveness and growth
9
NGL Boom In Progress
»

NGL = Natural Gas Liquids or “Wet Gas”
Prevalent in large Crude plays as a by product – Bakken,
Eagle Ford, Permian
Prolific areas in eastern Marcellus and Utica
Adds profitability potential for oil & gas production
companies

»

NGLs require processing and fractionation
Capacity coming on line quickly in multiple plays
3-9 gallons/MCF (thousand cubic feet)
–
Ethane
~42-65%
–
Propane
~28%
–
Normal Butane ~8%
–
Iso-Butane
~9%
–
Condensate ~13%

»

NGL supply growth will outpace downstream
product demand in North America
Ethane currently “rejected” in large volumes due to low
prices
As processing capacity increases, export of downstream
products will grow significantly due to cost advantage

10
Ethane is the “Building Blocks” for
Manufacturing
Feedstock/
Intermediary
Finished
Products

11
Shale Gas Phased Impact To US Industrial &
Manufacturing Cost Competitiveness
2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Phase III – “Manufacturing”: 
Raw material cost driven

Shale 
Gas
Boom

Phase II ‐ Downstream Products:  
Resins, Chemicals

Phase I ‐ Gas & Power‐intensive Industries: 
Steel, Fertilizer, Methane 
» Phase I & II expansion, brownfield and greenfield
plants announced – 2014-2017 investment peak
Nearly $90B of chemical industry investments have been announced
with more announcements expected
Foreign investment is over 50% of announced
Not all of the announced factories will be built or be delayed due to
regulatory issues

» Ethane crackers are vital to downstream growth
10 expansions and 7 greenfield crackers announced
3-5 world scale crackers likely to be built
12
Phase I – Gas- and Power-Intensive
Industries Are Advantaged Now
» Steel example -- Direct Reduction Iron (DRI)

Average Cost of Electricity (2012)

Gas strips oxygen from iron core to make high purity/quality pellets
DRI pellets cost ~$270/ton vs. scrap steel cost ~$390/ton
Nucor/Encana $750 M plant in St. James Parish, LA is starting early 2014
with capacity of 2.5 M tons/year (will be largest DRI plant in the world)
Voestalpine 2 M tons/year HBI and DRI plant is due online in early 2016

» Fertilizer example – Numerous new plant
announcements

Three iron‐ore storage domes stand near Nucor's direct‐reduced iron plant in 
Convent, La.www.wsj.com ‐ Feb 1, 2013

Gas is feedstock for ammonia/nitrogen
5 plants will likely be built out of the 20 factory announcements
First world scale plant in nearly 25 years in Wever, IA – Iowa Fertilizer
(OCI) – projected to start in late 2015
CF Industries’ two fertilizer expansions that have been announced in IA
and LA are likely to be built – 2016 start

» Methanol example – Imports will be displaced
Beaumont OCI plant restoration in 2012 – producing methanol &
ammonia
LyondellBasell’s restart of mothballed Texas plant operational late 2013
Methanex is relocating two plants from Chile to LA – first plant expected
operational by end of 2014 and second early 2016
OCI new plant announced in Beaumont – Q4 2016 start
Valero evaluating bolt-on approach for methanol plant at refinery in LA,
project could startup in 2017

13
Phase II - Low Cost Gas Feedstock Provides
Significant Cost Advantages for Chemicals & Resins
» US has a large structural cost advantage due to
gas-based ethane for downstream products
Europe and Asia are tied to crude-based naptha as a feedstock
for their downstream processing
US has shifted to ~90% ethane feedstock for ethylene

» However, US ethane cracker and processing
capacity is tight and ethylene prices are inflated
Current ethane cracker margins 50-60 cents/lb
Additional cracker capacity expected in 2016/2017
Margins/prices will moderate as more capacity comes online
New US resin facilities also on the drawing board
Excess resin capacity will promote globally competitive prices
and large export increases

Source: Townsend Solutions

North America Ethylene Expansions
50,000
k tons

45,000

k tons

40,000
35,000
30,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Actual Capacity

Additional Capacity
Sources: Townsend Solutions

14
Phase III - Raw Material Cost Advantage Is
Key Cost Driver to Reshoring Growth
» Raw materials normally accounts for 60-70% of
manufacturing cost of goods sold (COGS)
Most product cost competition is won or lost here
Shale gas giving the US an advantage for steel, plastics,
chemicals

» Total labor cost is usually ~20% of COGS for US
manufacturers
China labor cost in $ will continue to rise due to inflation and
currency appreciation
US labor rate expected to remain stable

» Transportation & Logistics costs are in “Other”
Asia/China has 5~10% cost disadvantage due to extra ~ 1
month shipping lead time (major cash flow disadvantage)
Transportation costs continue to rise

» Energy cost is usually less than 5% for final
manufacturer
However, energy costs are buried in raw material costs and
transportation and can be more substantial in energy-intensive
products
US has a tremendous advantage vs. industrialized world

15
Implications and Wrap Up
»

Reshoring manufacturing volume will be limited until raw
material costs are advantaged with some exceptions:
Durable goods
Quality differentiation
Innovation / proximity to market advantages
Mexico near-sourcing

»

Shale gas-driven raw material advantages will take 5 years+
to flow through supply chain
Ethane crackers are current bottleneck to downstream cost competitiveness
Bottleneck will be relieved in 2016/2017 timeframe
Imports will be displaced – exports will grow dramatically in some industries

»

Shale gas competitiveness is sustainable with huge,
accessible supply reserves with continuous production cost
improvement

»

Shale oil is “icing on the cake” for the US
Shale oil and gas supply chain will drive job growth
Energy independence coming!
Improvement in trade deficit

16
Thank You!
For follow up questions and information, please contact:

Taylor Robinson, President
+1 (508) 982-1319 / trobinson@plgconsulting.com

17
Logistics

Engineering

Supply Chain

Crude By Rail Report
A detailed look at the impacts of crude by rail on the marketplace

Real World Experience
Depth of Analysis
Strategic Perspective
Hands-on Engagement

Presented by Graham Brisben
December 9, 2013
PLGConsulting.com

18
The Shale Development
Revolution – Big Picture
Disruptive
Technologies
• Hydraulic Fracturing
• Horizontal Drilling

Market Dynamics
•
•
•
•

Supply & Demand
Customers
Price
Logistics

Continuous
Evolution
• Productivity
• Rapid Change

19
Shale Play Product Flows Outbound

» Natural Gas
Majority via pipelines, some trucks

» Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
Requires processing (fractionation)
3-9 gallons/MCF (thousand cubic feet)
–
–
–
–
–

Ethane
Propane
Normal Butane
Iso-Butane
Condensate

~42-65%
~28%
~8%
~9%
~13%

» Crude Oil
Bakken play as a model

20
“Tight” Oil Sources Driving Overall
North American Growth

» Dramatic increases
in production due
to hydraulic
fracturing and
horizontal drilling
7.74 MM bbl/day
Projected to grow by
~30% over next four
years
“Tight” oil sources
driving overall North
American growth
Production forecasts
frequently revised
upward
Largest area of nonOPEC growth is
North America

Source:  BENTEK presentation, November 2013

21
Some Basic Facts About Crude Oil:
Grades and Qualities
» Heavy/sour
Higher sulfur content, yield for asphalt & diesel
Sources include
–
–
–
–

Western Canada (largest single play in North America)
Venezuela
Mexico, Alaska North Slope
Middle East (light/sour)

Significant investments made ($48B since
2005) at select refineries to install coker units
that will allow processing of heavy/sour
Heavy/sour crude has a natural home in
Midwest and US Gulf Coast (~2.8 MM bpd
demand at USGC)

» Light/sweet
Brent, WTI, and US shale play crudes
(Bakken, Permian, Niobrara, Eagle Ford) are
light/sweet
US is close to saturation point on light/sweet
crude at mid-continent and USGC refining
areas

Source: RBN Energy

22
Crude Market Overview
ANS

Oil
Sands
Hardisty, AB

Pacific Northwest
Refiners

PADD V
Demand

2,500
kbpd

Bakken
Clearbrook, MN
Light/Sweet

PADD II
Demand

Heavy/Sour

3,325
kbpd

East Coast
Refiners

Light/Sweet

California
Refiners

Heavy/Sour

Midwest
Refiners

1,075
kbpd

PADD I
Demand

Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

Cushing, OK

Permian

Brent

St. James, LA
LA Gulf Coast
Refiners

TX Gulf Coast
Eagle Ford Refiners

Mexican Maya

8,100
kbpd

PADD III
Demand
Light/Sweet

Sources: EIA, PLG Analysis (Google Earth)

Venezuela Crude

Heavy/Sour

West African

Brent
Middle East
23
West African
Displacement of Waterborne Crudes
by Mid-Continent Sources
» Surging domestic production is diminishing imports
West African imports already down ~70% from 2010 levels

» Shift from coastal to mid-continent supply points necessitated “re-plumbing” the
flow of crude in North America
Pipeline reversals, repurposing, new starts
Crude by rail comes of age – born in the Bakken

Source:  BENTEK presentation, November 2013

24
Crude By Rail From the Bakken
– A Short History
»

2009-2010: Objective of crude by rail
to “bridge the gap” until pipelines built
and get product to market

~932,000 BPD September 2013

2010-2011 discount of ~$8-12/bbl for Bakken
crude vs. peer WTI
Undervalued due to logistics constraints
“stranding” the oil

First outbound unit train
shipment December,
2009

»

2011-2012: Significant development
of crude by rail loading terminals
Source: EIA, North Dakota Pipeline Authority, PLG

»

Initial destination is Cushing, OK
Delivers better price than Clearbrook

»

2012-2013: Rail emerges as tool of
arbitrage
Flexibility to sell Bakken crude at other
light/sweet trading hubs – St. James in particular
– allows traders to exploit price differentials
Higher cost of rail vs. pipe is offset by superior
“optionality”

Map by PLG Consulting

25
Crude Oil by Rail vs. Pipeline
» Rail cost: 50-100% more expensive than
pipeline transport
» Near-term offsetting rail advantages:

» Rail pricing drivers
Advantaged rate structures for first-movers, volume,
and unit train operators
“Floor” has been set for crude by rail pricing
Crude price differentials more important than cost
vs. pipeline

Cost Comparison: Bakken to Cushing and USGC
$16.00

$15.00

$14.00
Dollars Per Barrel

Site permitting, construction much faster
Lower capital cost
Scalable
Shorter contracts (2-3 year commitments vs. 10
years for pipeline)
Faster transit times
Access to coastal areas not connected via pipeline
Origin/destination flexibility
Primary advantage: Tool of arbitrage for trading
desks

$12.00

$12.00

$10.50

$10.00
$8.00

$6.50

$6.00
$4.00
$2.00
$Pipeline to
Cushing

Source: PLG analysis

Rail to
Cushing

Pipeline to Pt
Arthur

Rail to Pt
Arthur

26
US Shale Plays and CBR Loading
and Offloading Terminals

PADD V
Demand

2,500
kbpd

Light/Sweet

3,325
kbpd

PADD II
Demand
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

Heavy/Sour

1,075
kbpd

PADD I
Demand
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

Load Terminal
Offload Terminal
Shale Play
Oil Sands Play

Sources: EIA, Various Industry Sources, PLG
analysis (Google Earth)

8,100
kbpd

PADD III
Demand
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

27
The Importance of Price
Differentials to Crude by Rail
»

Differentials made rail attractive
Bakken and WTI differential as high as ~$20/bbl vs. Brent in 2012
CBR enables producers to sell at trading hubs with higher
benchmarks

»

Market response: E&P, midstream players willing
to rapidly deploy significant capital to enable
access and capitalize on spreads
Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays and at destination
markets (i.e. Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt. Arthur, TX, Albany,
NY, Bakersfield, CA)
Lease and purchase of railcar fleets

»

Refineries install unit train receiving capability
Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to waterborne
imports (i.e. Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB, Washington state)

»

Pipeline capacity underutilized
Rail captures 73% Bakken takeaway by April 2013

»

Differentials are both an incentive – and a risk – for
crude by rail
3Q 2013 a cautionary note

Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, PLG Analysis

28
Correlation of Operating Rig Count
with Sand and Crude Shipments
200,000

2,500
Operating On Shore Rigs
All Sand Carloads Handled

180,000

Petroleum Carloads Handled

160,000

140,000

Carloads

120,000

1,500

100,000

80,000

1,000

60,000

40,000

Operating Onshore Rigs

2,000

500

20,000

0

0
2007

Avg.

2008

STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum)

Avg.

2009

2010

2011

Source: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes, STB data

2012

2013

29
All Crude Handled by Railroad
Volume Growth
90,000

80,000

70,000

Carloads

60,000

BNSF

50,000

UP
CPRS

40,000

NS
CSXT

30,000

CN
KCS

20,000

10,000

0

Quarterly Data
STCC 13111 Source: US Rail Desktop

30
Shale Related Rail Traffic Still Small
Relative to Coal Volumes
Railcars Handled: Sand, Crude, & Coal

2,500,000

Carloads

2,000,000
1,500,000
Sand
1,000,000

Crude
Coal

500,000

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

0

Sand

Crude

Coal

Quarterly Data
STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal)

Source: US Rail Desktop

31
Coal, Crude & Sand Trends:
Carloads and Revenue
Revenue

Sand
$18

9

$16

8
7

$14

1,400

Thousands

10

Billions

Millions

Carloads

Combined Sand and Crude Carloads and Revenue

1,200

Crude

Revenue
$4.5
$4.0

Billions

Total Coal Carloads and Revenue

$3.5
1,000

$12

6

$3.0

$10

800

$2.5

$8

600

$2.0

5
4
3
2
1
-

$6

$1.5
400

$4
$2
$0

$1.0
200

-

$0.5
$0.0

32
STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal)

Source: US Rail Desktop
Forecast of Crude Railcar
Supply and Demand
» Production increases vs. railcar
capacity increases
Significant increase in railcar capacity
with the large railcar backlog
If pipelines and local refining can
consume production increases in
Permian and Eagle Ford, crude by rail
will be primarily Bakken and
Canadian Oil Sands-driven

» Under best-case scenario for
rail market share capture, data
suggests existing & planned
tank car fleet exceeds demand

Assumptions:
• Bakken: 80% rail market share of Bakken’s projected volumes
• Western Canadian Oil Sands: CAPP projected rail load out capacity due online by 2014 (300K bbl/day) and multiply by
two for capacity due online by 2015 and assume 80% CBR utilization.
• 30,000 crude railcars in March and build rate of 21,500 railcars/year through Q3-2015 with attrition rate of 3,000
railcars/year
• 650 bbl. average railcar capacity and average 23 day turn
• Other production sources increase at rate of 2% per quarter

Sources: CAPP, AAR, NDPA, GATX, and PLG analysis

» Possible retrofit of “old design”
railcars could dramatically
decrease capacity
Approx. 2/3 of unlined, 30K/gallon
fleet would need retrofit
33
Lac Megantic Incident is
Changing Crude by Rail
» As with other major rail accidents, expect lasting
impact
» Increased product testing, documentation and
traceability (FRA directive)
Oil chemistry varies by well/pad
Concerns with extremely low flash and boiling points
Flammable liquids/crudes likely will require new design tank cars

» Increased FRA audit and scrutiny of entire CBR supply
chain
» Railroad operating rule changes on hazmat train
handling
OT 55 expanded to include all trains transporting hazmats

» Increased scrutiny, insurance requirements
Short line and regional railroads in particular
May have consequences in CBR freight rates
34
Shale Development and Crude By
Rail: Current Market Dynamics
»

Brent vs. WTI Spread

Adverse 3Q 2013 market forces have
reversed
WTI-Brent spread now ~$16/bbl

»

CBR rebound driven by Bakken to
coasts
Long-term outlook for Bakken CBR to USGC is
weak
Key driver: LLS now aligned with WTI, not Brent

»

“Next wave” of CBR development:
Canadian Oil Sands

Source: RBN Energy

Terminal investments in Alberta and PADD II and
III
–

~600 bbl/day capacity planned

NOT like the Bakken/less certainty
–
–
–

Heavy/sour product requires significant additional
capex
Fewer destinations
3-4 year runway until significant new pipeline
capacity is added

Tank car market reorienting to coiled/insulated car
types

Source: RBN Energy

35

35
Light/Sweet Crude Logistics and Price
Differentials – November 2013
Rail

ANS

Pipeline

Light/Sweet at PNW
Bakken (rail): $92
Brent (ship): $112

Marine
$79
(wellhead)

Pacific Northwest
Refiners

PADD V
Demand

2,500
kbpd

Bakken
Clearbrook, MN
Light/Sweet at EC
Bakken (rail): $94
Brent (ship): $111

Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

Chicago, IL

East Coast
Refiners

California
Refiners
1,075
kbpd

Brent

PADD I
Demand

Light/Sweet

WTI:$93

Heavy/Sour

Cushing, OK

Permian
St. James, LA
Spread
Brent - WTI
LLS - WTI
WTI - Bakken
(Clearbrook)

Dec. 2012
$21.83/bbl
$20.00/bbl

Nov. 2013
$16.97/bbl
$3.45/bbl

Change
-$4.86/bbl
-$16.55/bbl

$3.00/bbl

$11.50/bbl

Light/Sweet at LA GC
Bakken (rail): $94
LLS (local): $96

$6

$8.85/bbl

Crude Prices from end of November 2013
Sources: EIA, PAALP, CIBC, CME Group,
PLG analysis (Google Earth)

TX Gulf Coast

Eagle Ford Refiners

Light/Sweet at TX GC
Bakken (pipe): $90
Brent (ship): $111
WTI (pipe): $98

LA Gulf Coast
Refiners

8,100
kbpd

Brent

PADD III
Demand
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

36
Heavy/Sour Crude Logistics and Price
Differentials – November 2013
Rail

Oil
$63
Sands

Pipeline
Marine

Hardisty, AB
Pacific Northwest
Refiners

PADD V
Demand

2,500
kbpd

Clearbrook, MN
Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

PADD II
Demand
California
Refiners

3,325
kbpd

Chicago, IL

Light/Sweet
Heavy/Sour

Midwest
Refiners

Spread
Mexican Maya - WCS

Dec. 2012
$33.55/bbl

Crude Prices from end of November 2013
Sources: EIA, CME Group, CIBC, PLG
analysis (Google Earth)

Nov. 2013
$23.84/bbl

Change
-$9.71/bbl

Heavy/Sour at TX GC
Mexican Maya (ship): $87
WCS (pipe): $81
WCS (rail): $87

TX Gulf Coast
Refiners

8,100
kbpd

PADD III
Demand
Light/Sweet

Mexican Maya

Heavy/Sour

37
Looking Ahead:
Crude By Rail SWOT
» Primary strengths and opportunities
Rapid implementation, scale up of operations, terminals, transit times
Shorter contracts (2-3 year commitments vs. 10 years for pipeline)
Access to coastal areas not connected via pipeline
Origin/destination flexibility/facilitation of arbitrage opportunities
Foundational business (i.e. refining and E&P majors who have made a
structural commitment to CBR)
Growth in Canadian CBR – 3-4 year window
Longer-term opportunities
– Future exports of crude
– Refinery conversions in PADD III to process more light/sweet

» Primary threats and weaknesses
Exposure to changing price differentials that undermines trading
business
– Narrow WTI-Brent spread (EIA projects $8/bbl for 2014)
– Adverse benchmark alignment (i.e. WTI-LLS)

Supply Sources

Structural changes in supply
Capital

Key
Drivers
Destination
Markets

Oil Prices

– Glut of Permian and Eagle Ford light sweet oil displacing rail volumes to USGC
– Water-borne Eagle Ford crude deliveries to USEC

Continued pipeline development
Adverse commercial consequences from recent accidents

38

38
Looking Ahead: Crude Oil Anticipated
Production Growth and Product Flows
Oil
Sands

Export
Terminal

1,985
2,590

Heavy/Sour
Light/Sweet

+30%

Rail
Pipeline
Marine

Hardisty, AB
Pacific Northwest
Refiners

Bakken

929
1,363

Canadian East
Coast Refiners

+47%

Clearbrook, MN

Chicago, IL
California
Refiners

East Coast
Refiners

Cushing, OK
+26%

1,337
1,680

Permian
St. James, LA

Anticipated Production
Growth (000 bbl/d)

= Current 2013
= Future 2017

+35%

1,184
1,600

LA Gulf Coast
Refiners

Eagle Ford
TX Gulf Coast
Refiners

Sources: EIA, BENTEK Energy, CAPP, Railroad Commission of Texas, ND Pipeline Association, PLG Analysis (Google Earth)

39
Thank You!
For follow up questions and information, please contact:

Graham Brisben, CEO
+1 (708) 386-0700 / gbrisben@plgconsulting.com

40

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Plg stifel presentation v gb final 120913

  • 3. About PLG Consulting » Boutique consulting firm with team members throughout the US Established in 2001 Over 80 clients and 200 engagements Significant shale development practice since 2010 Partial Client List » Practice Areas Logistics Engineering Supply Chain » Consulting services Strategy & optimization Assessments & best practice benchmarking Logistics assets & infrastructure development Supply Chain design & operationalization M&A/investments/private equity » Specializing in these industry categories: Energy Bulk commodities Manufactured goods Private Equity 3
  • 4. Logistics Engineering Supply Chain Shale Gas Implications for US Manufacturing Renaissance A detailed analysis of shale’s direct impact to the renaissance of US manufacturing Real World Experience Strategic Perspective Depth of Analysis Hands-on Engagement Presented by Taylor Robinson December 9, 2013 PLGConsulting.com 4
  • 5. Shale Gas Is More Important to US Industry Competitiveness Than Oil Oil vs. Gas Price on BTU Basis » Natural gas is 4X cheaper than oil on a BTU-basis Innovation will convert more transportation fuels and other energy requirements to natural gas $30 WTI Crude ($/MMBTU) $25 Natural Gas ($/MMBTU) » US electricity prices are the lowest in the industrial world US industries are now the power cost leaders Gas drives an increasing share of the US electricity generation capacity $20 $15 $10 Chemicals Resins Compounds » Natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel compared to other hydrocarbons $5 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: EIA A Average Cost of Electricity (2012) ¢/kWh » US gas downstream products will have world class competitiveness - are the “building blocks of manufacturing” 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 31¢ 30¢ 18¢ 13¢ 9¢ 7¢ 4¢ 3¢ 5
  • 6. US Shale Gas History Gas rig count has decreased significantly, but gas production has increased – Why? » Shale gas prolific supply growth in 2007 & 2008 caused a dramatic price drop in 2009, rigs shifted to oil & liquids » Drilling productivity continues to lower costs and increase production with less rigs » Rig Count by Class vs. Gas Production And the Liquids (Crude, NGL) wells produce dry natural gas as a by-product Representative Productivity Gains – Fayetteville Shale Play Source: Southwestern Energy investor presentation, September 2013 Source: Bentek, September 2013 6
  • 7. US Shale Gas Future » Abundant US gas supply for the foreseeable future US Natural Gas Supply/Demand Low cost reserves in accessible locations near population US will become a net gas exporter by 2020 » US gas demand will grow gradually due to: Coal-fired generation plant converting to gas More industrial use – steel, fertilizer, methanol Mexican export via pipeline and LNG export overseas Increasing use as transportation fuel US gas cost competitiveness is sustainable Supply will overwhelm demand as prices approach $5 US government will likely limit LNG export to protect US from world gas market price Annual Average Henry Hub Spot Natural Gas Prices 2011 $ per M Btu » Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, 2013 Source: BENTEK, September 2013 7
  • 8. Marcellus: Future Gas Play of Choice » Marcellus is gas play of choice Massive scale near highest US population density Rapid increase in production – now 5th largest production “country” in the world Low cost wells with high productivity enables dry gas profitability for efficient drillers at current price Export potential for LNG & NGL from Marcus Hook and other export terminals However, no ethane crackers in the region, so gas NGLs need to be piped to Gulf region for further processing Shale Gas Development Rates Shale Play IRR Currently, only profitable dry  gas play Source: Bentek, September 2013 Source: Bentek, September 2013 8
  • 9. Shale Gas Downstream Products Inputs >> Wellhead >> Direct Output >> Thermal >> Fuels >> Raw Materials >> Generation Downstream Products Steel Process Feedstocks Proppants Fertilizer (Ammonia) Gas Home Heating (Propane) OCTG Methanol Other Fuels Chemicals NGLs Feedstock (Ethane) Feedstock (Propane, Butane, etc) Water Cement Chemicals and Resins Chemicals and Resins Crude Petroleum Products Gasoline Petrochemicals Diesel, Jet Fuel Other Refined Products » Shale crude oil makes the headlines, but shale gas & NGLs will drive US industry and manufacturing cost competitiveness and growth 9
  • 10. NGL Boom In Progress » NGL = Natural Gas Liquids or “Wet Gas” Prevalent in large Crude plays as a by product – Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian Prolific areas in eastern Marcellus and Utica Adds profitability potential for oil & gas production companies » NGLs require processing and fractionation Capacity coming on line quickly in multiple plays 3-9 gallons/MCF (thousand cubic feet) – Ethane ~42-65% – Propane ~28% – Normal Butane ~8% – Iso-Butane ~9% – Condensate ~13% » NGL supply growth will outpace downstream product demand in North America Ethane currently “rejected” in large volumes due to low prices As processing capacity increases, export of downstream products will grow significantly due to cost advantage 10
  • 11. Ethane is the “Building Blocks” for Manufacturing Feedstock/ Intermediary Finished Products 11
  • 12. Shale Gas Phased Impact To US Industrial & Manufacturing Cost Competitiveness 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Phase III – “Manufacturing”:  Raw material cost driven Shale  Gas Boom Phase II ‐ Downstream Products:   Resins, Chemicals Phase I ‐ Gas & Power‐intensive Industries:  Steel, Fertilizer, Methane  » Phase I & II expansion, brownfield and greenfield plants announced – 2014-2017 investment peak Nearly $90B of chemical industry investments have been announced with more announcements expected Foreign investment is over 50% of announced Not all of the announced factories will be built or be delayed due to regulatory issues » Ethane crackers are vital to downstream growth 10 expansions and 7 greenfield crackers announced 3-5 world scale crackers likely to be built 12
  • 13. Phase I – Gas- and Power-Intensive Industries Are Advantaged Now » Steel example -- Direct Reduction Iron (DRI) Average Cost of Electricity (2012) Gas strips oxygen from iron core to make high purity/quality pellets DRI pellets cost ~$270/ton vs. scrap steel cost ~$390/ton Nucor/Encana $750 M plant in St. James Parish, LA is starting early 2014 with capacity of 2.5 M tons/year (will be largest DRI plant in the world) Voestalpine 2 M tons/year HBI and DRI plant is due online in early 2016 » Fertilizer example – Numerous new plant announcements Three iron‐ore storage domes stand near Nucor's direct‐reduced iron plant in  Convent, La.www.wsj.com ‐ Feb 1, 2013 Gas is feedstock for ammonia/nitrogen 5 plants will likely be built out of the 20 factory announcements First world scale plant in nearly 25 years in Wever, IA – Iowa Fertilizer (OCI) – projected to start in late 2015 CF Industries’ two fertilizer expansions that have been announced in IA and LA are likely to be built – 2016 start » Methanol example – Imports will be displaced Beaumont OCI plant restoration in 2012 – producing methanol & ammonia LyondellBasell’s restart of mothballed Texas plant operational late 2013 Methanex is relocating two plants from Chile to LA – first plant expected operational by end of 2014 and second early 2016 OCI new plant announced in Beaumont – Q4 2016 start Valero evaluating bolt-on approach for methanol plant at refinery in LA, project could startup in 2017 13
  • 14. Phase II - Low Cost Gas Feedstock Provides Significant Cost Advantages for Chemicals & Resins » US has a large structural cost advantage due to gas-based ethane for downstream products Europe and Asia are tied to crude-based naptha as a feedstock for their downstream processing US has shifted to ~90% ethane feedstock for ethylene » However, US ethane cracker and processing capacity is tight and ethylene prices are inflated Current ethane cracker margins 50-60 cents/lb Additional cracker capacity expected in 2016/2017 Margins/prices will moderate as more capacity comes online New US resin facilities also on the drawing board Excess resin capacity will promote globally competitive prices and large export increases Source: Townsend Solutions North America Ethylene Expansions 50,000 k tons 45,000 k tons 40,000 35,000 30,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Actual Capacity Additional Capacity Sources: Townsend Solutions 14
  • 15. Phase III - Raw Material Cost Advantage Is Key Cost Driver to Reshoring Growth » Raw materials normally accounts for 60-70% of manufacturing cost of goods sold (COGS) Most product cost competition is won or lost here Shale gas giving the US an advantage for steel, plastics, chemicals » Total labor cost is usually ~20% of COGS for US manufacturers China labor cost in $ will continue to rise due to inflation and currency appreciation US labor rate expected to remain stable » Transportation & Logistics costs are in “Other” Asia/China has 5~10% cost disadvantage due to extra ~ 1 month shipping lead time (major cash flow disadvantage) Transportation costs continue to rise » Energy cost is usually less than 5% for final manufacturer However, energy costs are buried in raw material costs and transportation and can be more substantial in energy-intensive products US has a tremendous advantage vs. industrialized world 15
  • 16. Implications and Wrap Up » Reshoring manufacturing volume will be limited until raw material costs are advantaged with some exceptions: Durable goods Quality differentiation Innovation / proximity to market advantages Mexico near-sourcing » Shale gas-driven raw material advantages will take 5 years+ to flow through supply chain Ethane crackers are current bottleneck to downstream cost competitiveness Bottleneck will be relieved in 2016/2017 timeframe Imports will be displaced – exports will grow dramatically in some industries » Shale gas competitiveness is sustainable with huge, accessible supply reserves with continuous production cost improvement » Shale oil is “icing on the cake” for the US Shale oil and gas supply chain will drive job growth Energy independence coming! Improvement in trade deficit 16
  • 17. Thank You! For follow up questions and information, please contact: Taylor Robinson, President +1 (508) 982-1319 / trobinson@plgconsulting.com 17
  • 18. Logistics Engineering Supply Chain Crude By Rail Report A detailed look at the impacts of crude by rail on the marketplace Real World Experience Depth of Analysis Strategic Perspective Hands-on Engagement Presented by Graham Brisben December 9, 2013 PLGConsulting.com 18
  • 19. The Shale Development Revolution – Big Picture Disruptive Technologies • Hydraulic Fracturing • Horizontal Drilling Market Dynamics • • • • Supply & Demand Customers Price Logistics Continuous Evolution • Productivity • Rapid Change 19
  • 20. Shale Play Product Flows Outbound » Natural Gas Majority via pipelines, some trucks » Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Requires processing (fractionation) 3-9 gallons/MCF (thousand cubic feet) – – – – – Ethane Propane Normal Butane Iso-Butane Condensate ~42-65% ~28% ~8% ~9% ~13% » Crude Oil Bakken play as a model 20
  • 21. “Tight” Oil Sources Driving Overall North American Growth » Dramatic increases in production due to hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling 7.74 MM bbl/day Projected to grow by ~30% over next four years “Tight” oil sources driving overall North American growth Production forecasts frequently revised upward Largest area of nonOPEC growth is North America Source:  BENTEK presentation, November 2013 21
  • 22. Some Basic Facts About Crude Oil: Grades and Qualities » Heavy/sour Higher sulfur content, yield for asphalt & diesel Sources include – – – – Western Canada (largest single play in North America) Venezuela Mexico, Alaska North Slope Middle East (light/sour) Significant investments made ($48B since 2005) at select refineries to install coker units that will allow processing of heavy/sour Heavy/sour crude has a natural home in Midwest and US Gulf Coast (~2.8 MM bpd demand at USGC) » Light/sweet Brent, WTI, and US shale play crudes (Bakken, Permian, Niobrara, Eagle Ford) are light/sweet US is close to saturation point on light/sweet crude at mid-continent and USGC refining areas Source: RBN Energy 22
  • 23. Crude Market Overview ANS Oil Sands Hardisty, AB Pacific Northwest Refiners PADD V Demand 2,500 kbpd Bakken Clearbrook, MN Light/Sweet PADD II Demand Heavy/Sour 3,325 kbpd East Coast Refiners Light/Sweet California Refiners Heavy/Sour Midwest Refiners 1,075 kbpd PADD I Demand Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour Cushing, OK Permian Brent St. James, LA LA Gulf Coast Refiners TX Gulf Coast Eagle Ford Refiners Mexican Maya 8,100 kbpd PADD III Demand Light/Sweet Sources: EIA, PLG Analysis (Google Earth) Venezuela Crude Heavy/Sour West African Brent Middle East 23 West African
  • 24. Displacement of Waterborne Crudes by Mid-Continent Sources » Surging domestic production is diminishing imports West African imports already down ~70% from 2010 levels » Shift from coastal to mid-continent supply points necessitated “re-plumbing” the flow of crude in North America Pipeline reversals, repurposing, new starts Crude by rail comes of age – born in the Bakken Source:  BENTEK presentation, November 2013 24
  • 25. Crude By Rail From the Bakken – A Short History » 2009-2010: Objective of crude by rail to “bridge the gap” until pipelines built and get product to market ~932,000 BPD September 2013 2010-2011 discount of ~$8-12/bbl for Bakken crude vs. peer WTI Undervalued due to logistics constraints “stranding” the oil First outbound unit train shipment December, 2009 » 2011-2012: Significant development of crude by rail loading terminals Source: EIA, North Dakota Pipeline Authority, PLG » Initial destination is Cushing, OK Delivers better price than Clearbrook » 2012-2013: Rail emerges as tool of arbitrage Flexibility to sell Bakken crude at other light/sweet trading hubs – St. James in particular – allows traders to exploit price differentials Higher cost of rail vs. pipe is offset by superior “optionality” Map by PLG Consulting 25
  • 26. Crude Oil by Rail vs. Pipeline » Rail cost: 50-100% more expensive than pipeline transport » Near-term offsetting rail advantages: » Rail pricing drivers Advantaged rate structures for first-movers, volume, and unit train operators “Floor” has been set for crude by rail pricing Crude price differentials more important than cost vs. pipeline Cost Comparison: Bakken to Cushing and USGC $16.00 $15.00 $14.00 Dollars Per Barrel Site permitting, construction much faster Lower capital cost Scalable Shorter contracts (2-3 year commitments vs. 10 years for pipeline) Faster transit times Access to coastal areas not connected via pipeline Origin/destination flexibility Primary advantage: Tool of arbitrage for trading desks $12.00 $12.00 $10.50 $10.00 $8.00 $6.50 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $Pipeline to Cushing Source: PLG analysis Rail to Cushing Pipeline to Pt Arthur Rail to Pt Arthur 26
  • 27. US Shale Plays and CBR Loading and Offloading Terminals PADD V Demand 2,500 kbpd Light/Sweet 3,325 kbpd PADD II Demand Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour Heavy/Sour 1,075 kbpd PADD I Demand Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour Load Terminal Offload Terminal Shale Play Oil Sands Play Sources: EIA, Various Industry Sources, PLG analysis (Google Earth) 8,100 kbpd PADD III Demand Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour 27
  • 28. The Importance of Price Differentials to Crude by Rail » Differentials made rail attractive Bakken and WTI differential as high as ~$20/bbl vs. Brent in 2012 CBR enables producers to sell at trading hubs with higher benchmarks » Market response: E&P, midstream players willing to rapidly deploy significant capital to enable access and capitalize on spreads Multi-modal logistics hubs in shale plays and at destination markets (i.e. Cushing, OK, St. James, LA, Pt. Arthur, TX, Albany, NY, Bakersfield, CA) Lease and purchase of railcar fleets » Refineries install unit train receiving capability Particularly coastal refineries previously captive to waterborne imports (i.e. Philadelphia, PA, St. John, NB, Washington state) » Pipeline capacity underutilized Rail captures 73% Bakken takeaway by April 2013 » Differentials are both an incentive – and a risk – for crude by rail 3Q 2013 a cautionary note Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority, PLG Analysis 28
  • 29. Correlation of Operating Rig Count with Sand and Crude Shipments 200,000 2,500 Operating On Shore Rigs All Sand Carloads Handled 180,000 Petroleum Carloads Handled 160,000 140,000 Carloads 120,000 1,500 100,000 80,000 1,000 60,000 40,000 Operating Onshore Rigs 2,000 500 20,000 0 0 2007 Avg. 2008 STCC 14413 (sand) and 13111 (petroleum) Avg. 2009 2010 2011 Source: US Rail Desktop, Baker Hughes, STB data 2012 2013 29
  • 30. All Crude Handled by Railroad Volume Growth 90,000 80,000 70,000 Carloads 60,000 BNSF 50,000 UP CPRS 40,000 NS CSXT 30,000 CN KCS 20,000 10,000 0 Quarterly Data STCC 13111 Source: US Rail Desktop 30
  • 31. Shale Related Rail Traffic Still Small Relative to Coal Volumes Railcars Handled: Sand, Crude, & Coal 2,500,000 Carloads 2,000,000 1,500,000 Sand 1,000,000 Crude Coal 500,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 Sand Crude Coal Quarterly Data STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop 31
  • 32. Coal, Crude & Sand Trends: Carloads and Revenue Revenue Sand $18 9 $16 8 7 $14 1,400 Thousands 10 Billions Millions Carloads Combined Sand and Crude Carloads and Revenue 1,200 Crude Revenue $4.5 $4.0 Billions Total Coal Carloads and Revenue $3.5 1,000 $12 6 $3.0 $10 800 $2.5 $8 600 $2.0 5 4 3 2 1 - $6 $1.5 400 $4 $2 $0 $1.0 200 - $0.5 $0.0 32 STCC 14413 (sand), 13111 (petroleum), 11212 (coal) Source: US Rail Desktop
  • 33. Forecast of Crude Railcar Supply and Demand » Production increases vs. railcar capacity increases Significant increase in railcar capacity with the large railcar backlog If pipelines and local refining can consume production increases in Permian and Eagle Ford, crude by rail will be primarily Bakken and Canadian Oil Sands-driven » Under best-case scenario for rail market share capture, data suggests existing & planned tank car fleet exceeds demand Assumptions: • Bakken: 80% rail market share of Bakken’s projected volumes • Western Canadian Oil Sands: CAPP projected rail load out capacity due online by 2014 (300K bbl/day) and multiply by two for capacity due online by 2015 and assume 80% CBR utilization. • 30,000 crude railcars in March and build rate of 21,500 railcars/year through Q3-2015 with attrition rate of 3,000 railcars/year • 650 bbl. average railcar capacity and average 23 day turn • Other production sources increase at rate of 2% per quarter Sources: CAPP, AAR, NDPA, GATX, and PLG analysis » Possible retrofit of “old design” railcars could dramatically decrease capacity Approx. 2/3 of unlined, 30K/gallon fleet would need retrofit 33
  • 34. Lac Megantic Incident is Changing Crude by Rail » As with other major rail accidents, expect lasting impact » Increased product testing, documentation and traceability (FRA directive) Oil chemistry varies by well/pad Concerns with extremely low flash and boiling points Flammable liquids/crudes likely will require new design tank cars » Increased FRA audit and scrutiny of entire CBR supply chain » Railroad operating rule changes on hazmat train handling OT 55 expanded to include all trains transporting hazmats » Increased scrutiny, insurance requirements Short line and regional railroads in particular May have consequences in CBR freight rates 34
  • 35. Shale Development and Crude By Rail: Current Market Dynamics » Brent vs. WTI Spread Adverse 3Q 2013 market forces have reversed WTI-Brent spread now ~$16/bbl » CBR rebound driven by Bakken to coasts Long-term outlook for Bakken CBR to USGC is weak Key driver: LLS now aligned with WTI, not Brent » “Next wave” of CBR development: Canadian Oil Sands Source: RBN Energy Terminal investments in Alberta and PADD II and III – ~600 bbl/day capacity planned NOT like the Bakken/less certainty – – – Heavy/sour product requires significant additional capex Fewer destinations 3-4 year runway until significant new pipeline capacity is added Tank car market reorienting to coiled/insulated car types Source: RBN Energy 35 35
  • 36. Light/Sweet Crude Logistics and Price Differentials – November 2013 Rail ANS Pipeline Light/Sweet at PNW Bakken (rail): $92 Brent (ship): $112 Marine $79 (wellhead) Pacific Northwest Refiners PADD V Demand 2,500 kbpd Bakken Clearbrook, MN Light/Sweet at EC Bakken (rail): $94 Brent (ship): $111 Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour Chicago, IL East Coast Refiners California Refiners 1,075 kbpd Brent PADD I Demand Light/Sweet WTI:$93 Heavy/Sour Cushing, OK Permian St. James, LA Spread Brent - WTI LLS - WTI WTI - Bakken (Clearbrook) Dec. 2012 $21.83/bbl $20.00/bbl Nov. 2013 $16.97/bbl $3.45/bbl Change -$4.86/bbl -$16.55/bbl $3.00/bbl $11.50/bbl Light/Sweet at LA GC Bakken (rail): $94 LLS (local): $96 $6 $8.85/bbl Crude Prices from end of November 2013 Sources: EIA, PAALP, CIBC, CME Group, PLG analysis (Google Earth) TX Gulf Coast Eagle Ford Refiners Light/Sweet at TX GC Bakken (pipe): $90 Brent (ship): $111 WTI (pipe): $98 LA Gulf Coast Refiners 8,100 kbpd Brent PADD III Demand Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour 36
  • 37. Heavy/Sour Crude Logistics and Price Differentials – November 2013 Rail Oil $63 Sands Pipeline Marine Hardisty, AB Pacific Northwest Refiners PADD V Demand 2,500 kbpd Clearbrook, MN Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour PADD II Demand California Refiners 3,325 kbpd Chicago, IL Light/Sweet Heavy/Sour Midwest Refiners Spread Mexican Maya - WCS Dec. 2012 $33.55/bbl Crude Prices from end of November 2013 Sources: EIA, CME Group, CIBC, PLG analysis (Google Earth) Nov. 2013 $23.84/bbl Change -$9.71/bbl Heavy/Sour at TX GC Mexican Maya (ship): $87 WCS (pipe): $81 WCS (rail): $87 TX Gulf Coast Refiners 8,100 kbpd PADD III Demand Light/Sweet Mexican Maya Heavy/Sour 37
  • 38. Looking Ahead: Crude By Rail SWOT » Primary strengths and opportunities Rapid implementation, scale up of operations, terminals, transit times Shorter contracts (2-3 year commitments vs. 10 years for pipeline) Access to coastal areas not connected via pipeline Origin/destination flexibility/facilitation of arbitrage opportunities Foundational business (i.e. refining and E&P majors who have made a structural commitment to CBR) Growth in Canadian CBR – 3-4 year window Longer-term opportunities – Future exports of crude – Refinery conversions in PADD III to process more light/sweet » Primary threats and weaknesses Exposure to changing price differentials that undermines trading business – Narrow WTI-Brent spread (EIA projects $8/bbl for 2014) – Adverse benchmark alignment (i.e. WTI-LLS) Supply Sources Structural changes in supply Capital Key Drivers Destination Markets Oil Prices – Glut of Permian and Eagle Ford light sweet oil displacing rail volumes to USGC – Water-borne Eagle Ford crude deliveries to USEC Continued pipeline development Adverse commercial consequences from recent accidents 38 38
  • 39. Looking Ahead: Crude Oil Anticipated Production Growth and Product Flows Oil Sands Export Terminal 1,985 2,590 Heavy/Sour Light/Sweet +30% Rail Pipeline Marine Hardisty, AB Pacific Northwest Refiners Bakken 929 1,363 Canadian East Coast Refiners +47% Clearbrook, MN Chicago, IL California Refiners East Coast Refiners Cushing, OK +26% 1,337 1,680 Permian St. James, LA Anticipated Production Growth (000 bbl/d) = Current 2013 = Future 2017 +35% 1,184 1,600 LA Gulf Coast Refiners Eagle Ford TX Gulf Coast Refiners Sources: EIA, BENTEK Energy, CAPP, Railroad Commission of Texas, ND Pipeline Association, PLG Analysis (Google Earth) 39
  • 40. Thank You! For follow up questions and information, please contact: Graham Brisben, CEO +1 (708) 386-0700 / gbrisben@plgconsulting.com 40