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WELCOMETOTHE JUNGLE
“THAT WOULDN’T
WORK HERE”
LEAN COFFEE
CREATE AGENDA
VOTE ONTOPICS
DISCUSS 5 MIN
SILENTVOTING
MY
THESIS
TRANSPARENCY
MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS
Cover Art - Kanban by David Anderson
STOCKS AND FLOWS
Number of
Eggs
Number of
Chickens
Hatching
Laying+
+
Fatal Road
Crossings
+
-
Reinforcing Loop
unsustainable
virtuous/vicious cycle
Balancing Loop
stabilises
Crises
Heroics
Improvement
of the
system
+
+
B
B
Expediting
+
+
R
Rewards
Dependence on
heroics for sense
of accomplishment
-
+
+
R
-
-
Delay
Time and attention to
system improvements
-
+
R
WHEN DOINGTHE SAME
THING BETTER WON’T HELP
• Fat-tail lead time distributions
• Long average lead time relative to deadlines
• High volatility in staff liquidity
Because all of these things mean your system is exposed to extreme
random events which invalidate your attempts to forecast.
In these cases, the solution requires an act of leadership.
I learned this from Alexei Zheglov
LEADTIME DISTRIBUTION
75 99
85%
FatTail (Weibull k value<1)
2 24
50%
Long average
STAFF LIQUIDITY
THE POWERTO DRIVE
CHANGE
Individuals Teams Executives
Single digits Triple digitsDouble digits
IFYOU CAN’T FIX IT, GAME IT
UPSTREAM DELAYS
Set replenishment points
Define acceptance criteria
Visualize failure demand
Demand shaping policies
Conduct Strategy Reviews
Align strategy with capability
IN PROCESS DELAYS
Measure and predict blockers
Raise placeholder tickets
Cross-train
Make friends - a virtual team
Request SLAs
WIP limit on parking lot
Limit upstream work
Customer acceptance criteria
Floating talent pool
Shared services enablement
Co-locate
Embed
More frequent replenishment
Customer-centric metrics
DOWNSTREAM DELAYS
Earn trust
Keep an open window
Deploy often
Devops
Reconsider metrics
SO MANY OPTIONS!
2 24 75 99
50% 85%
SO MANY OPTIONS!
2 12 60 80
50% 85%
SO MANY OPTIONS!
2 8 45 72
50% 85%
THANKYOU

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