EIU global forecast 20110316
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The global economic forecast predicts continued recovery in 2011 due to ongoing fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing, though unemployment remains high. Growth will be constrained by deleveraging and oversupply of housing. Germany will grow strongly while austerity will slow growth in southern Europe. Portugal may need a bailout in 2011 but Spain is expected to meet funding needs. Japanese growth will be impacted by the earthquake with further downgrades likely if infrastructure damage persists long-term. China and emerging markets face inflation risks requiring monetary tightening. Commodity prices will be supported by global growth though weakening is expected later as stimulus ends.
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EIU global forecast 20110316
- 1. Global economic forecast March 14th 2011
- 10. 16 16 16 16 15 - China’s economy crashes - New asset bubbles burst, creating renewed financial turbulence - Tensions over currency manipulation lead to a rise in protectionism - Major sovereigns default as public debt surges - There is a sustained spike in oil prices
- 11. 12 15 10 10 9 - Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest - The euro zone breaks up - The global economy experiences a double-dip recession + Improved confidence prompts a stronger rebound in demand - Developed economies fall into a deflationary spiral
Notas do Editor
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009 as it suffers from a massive drop in external demand, the impact of the global financial crisis and the unwinding of domestic imbalances. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009 and some restocking, after the extensive drawdown of inventories in the first half 2009.
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
- Although we are forecasting steady growth in oil demand in 2011-13, ample supply and capacity will prevent significant price gains. While our forecast suggests markedly lower prices in 2009-13 than in 2008, they are still relatively high in both historical and real terms.
- Policy rates in the largest industrial economies are forecast to remain at ultra-loose levels at least until the end of 2010. Concerns not to inflate fresh bubbles will persuade the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) to start to tighten policy from 2011.