Vietnam, a hidden gem in power development & investing

Power-Gen Asia Conference October 2009 Vietnam, A Hidden Gem In Power Development and Investing Presented by Phat Nguyen Indochina Capital Corporation

Agenda 1 Current status of the power market & master plan no. 6 2 Power generation by sub-sector 3 Investment opportunities for private sector 2

Status quo of power generation, transmission and distribution ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ministry of Industry, June 2008 3

Electricity demand projections (2005 - 2025) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4 3,703 2,629 1,774 1,106 549 Per Capita Consumption (Kwh) 71,400 48,650 32,200 19,550 9,500 Maximum Demand (MW) 8.1% 9.3% 11.1% 16.1% --- Annual Demand Growth (5-year period) 381.2 257.3 164.9 97.1 45.6 Annual Demand (billion Kwh) 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005

Power generation development plan Source: Ministry of Industry, October 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],5

Projected total capacity, capacity mix and capacity additions Capacity Additions to Vietnam Power System (2000-2015) ,[object Object],Projected Total Capacity and Planned Capacity Mix ,[object Object],[object Object],6 17,938 15,325 8,756 4,947 1,750 4,250 Total 3,000 --- 2,700 150 1,465 2,385 Natural Gas 10,200 10,400 4,194 900 210 600 Coal 4,738 4,925 1,862 3,897 75 1,265 Hydro Non-EVN EVN Non-EVN EVN Non-EVN EVN 2011-2015 2006-2010 2000-2005 Type of Plant 100% 59,467 100% 24,454 Total 1% 595 2% 489 Imports 4% 2,379 3% 734 Renewable 16% 9,595 27% 6,595 Natural Gas 46% 27,149 27% 6,549 Coal 33% 19,750 41% 10,087 Hydro % MW % MW 2015 2010 Type of Plant

Road map for Vietnam’s electricity market ,[object Object],Source: Ministry of Industry, October 2007 7

Agenda 1 Current status of the power market & master plan 6 2 Power generation by sub-sector 3 Investment opportunities for private sector 8

Hydropower plants in main river basins ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Ministry of Industry, October 2008 9

Coal-fired power plants in northern Vietnam Source: Ministry of Industry, October 2008 10

Recently-completed gas-fired power plants ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],11

Renewables – an untapped sub-sector ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],12

Agenda 1 Current status of the power market & master plan 6 2 Power generation by sub-sector 3 Investment opportunities for private sector 13

Vietnam’s economic growth and stability GDP (US$ billion), Population (millions) Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Databases, Sep-2008 CAGR: 8.4% CAGR: 7.7% ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],14 $46 $53 $61 $70 $91 $104 $131 $146 $81 $117 84 83 82 87 85 90 91 91 89 88 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E GDP Population

Power sector investment program 2007- 2015 ,[object Object],US$ billion Source: EVN, 6 th Power Development Masterplan 15 40.56 4.76 4.41 3.66 4.16 4.05 3.84 4.67 5.46 5.55 Total 7.15 0.94 0.87 0;.84 0.81 0.78 0.95 0.96 0.93 0.91 < 110 kv Distribution 4.23 0.57 0.47 0.42 0.4 0.41 0.5 0.57 0.48 0.41 220 kv - 500 kv Transmission 9.73 0.74 0.72 0.52 0.59 0.65 0.65 1.26 2.2 2.4 Non-EVN 19.45 2.51 2.35 2.72 2.36 2.21 1.74 1.88 1.85 1.83 EVN Generation Total 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Sectors

Increased involvement of private foreign and local players ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],16

Co-operation forms and privatization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],17

Phat Nguyen Indochina Infrastructure Management Floor 10, Capital Place, 6 Thai Van Lung, District 1, HCMC, Vietnam [email_address] www.indochinacapital.com This presents the author’s view and does not necessarily reflect Indochina Capital’s

Vietnam, a hidden gem in power development & investing

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