This daily commentary provides an overview of commodity market prices and biofuel industry news. On the date shown, ethanol futures fell by 1-3 cents after ethanol production estimates came in lower than expected. Corn prices briefly rallied on the ethanol news but gains were limited by expectations of increased South American production. Soybean prices continued their decline across the front months.
1. Desk: 239-390-2885
BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY December 29, 2011
CBOT ETHANOL RBOB CRUDE HEATING OIL
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Jan 12 2.2020 2.231 (0.029) Jan 12 2.6801 2.6513 0.0288 Feb 12 99.65 99.36 0.29 Jan 12 2.9175 2.8934 0.0241
Feb 12 2.2190 2.236 (0.017) Feb 12 2.6694 2.6456 0.0238 Mar 12 99.82 99.51 0.31 Feb 12 2.9201 2.9012 0.0189
Mar 12 2.2420 2.258 (0.016) Mar 12 2.6697 2.6475 0.0222 Apr 12 100.01 99.70 0.31 Mar 12 2.9156 2.9021 0.0135
Apr 12 2.2590 2.275 (0.016) Apr 12 2.7844 2.7632 0.0212 May 12 100.16 99.82 0.34 Apr 12 2.8996 2.8883 0.0113
May 12 2.2710 2.288 (0.017) May 12 2.7789 2.7573 0.0216 Jun 12 100.16 99.77 0.39 May 12 2.8800 2.8694 0.0106
Jun 12 2.2850 2.297 (0.012) Jun 12 2.7581 2.7358 0.0223 Jul 12 100.01 99.59 0.42 Jun 12 2.8654 2.8537 0.0117
CORN SOYBEANS WHEAT NATGAS
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Mar 12 638.00 642.50 (4.50) Jan 12 1187.50 1198.25 (10.75) Mar 12 645.25 651.25 (6.00) Feb 12 3.027 3.121 (0.094)
May 12 646.50 650.25 (3.75) Mar 12 1197.00 1208.00 (11.00) May 12 664.75 668.50 (3.75) Mar 12 3.055 3.148 (0.093)
Jul 12 653.00 656.00 (3.00) May 12 1207.25 1217.50 (10.25) Jul 12 679.75 682.75 (3.00) Apr 12 3.120 3.208 (0.088)
Sep 12 605.50 608.25 (2.75) Jul 12 1217.25 1227.00 (9.75) Sep 12 695.75 698.50 (2.75) May 12 3.170 3.258 (0.088)
Dec 12 580.50 583.50 (3.00) Aug 12 1213.75 1223.25 (9.50) Dec 12 713.25 716.25 (3.00) Jun 12 3.219 3.305 (0.086)
Mar 13 593.50 595.50 (2.00) Sep 12 1206.50 1213.50 (7.00) Mar 13 728.00 731.00 (3.00) Jul 12 3.279 3.366 (0.087)
Ethanol Crush Spread Pricing What was deemed a successful auction of Italian 10yr debt followed by relatively tame US Weekly
Jan 12 (0.2594) Q3 11 (0.179) Jobless Claims data provided a positive tone to the market. The dollar finished little changed but
Feb 12 (0.2118) Q4 11 (0.143) did trade as high as 80.85 early in the day. Weekly EIA petroleum stocks were released today, a
day later than normal due to Monday's holiday, showing a 3.9 million barrel build in oil inventories
Mar 12 (0.1474) Q1 12 0.037
and weighed on WTI crude futures early. A late rebound helped oil settle up marginally while both
Apr 12 (0.1773) Q2 12 0.005 RBOB And heating oil posted small gains. Ethanol futures slid by 1.5 ‐ 3 cents in nearby months
May 12 (0.1437) Q312 (0.118) after production estimates came in at 962,000 barrels per day for the week ended December 23.
Nationwide Ethanol Indicative Pricing RINs were thinly traded near prior day levels, while physical ethanol declined by 2 – 4 cents
depending on location. Corn briefly rallied after the ethanol production numbers were released
Location Bid Ask but gains were capped by a better weather outlook for rain in South American growing regions,
Argo ITT 2.210 2.240 especially those in Argentina. Corn ended the day down 4.4 cents for March delivery at $6.38.
New York 2.300 2.330 Soybeans continue to underperform posting double digit loses in the front 4 months with March
beans settling down 11 cents at $11.97. Bean oil fell just over 1% basically matching losses in
Gulf Coast 2.310 2.330
soybeans and closing at 51.52. Weekly export sales will be released tomorrow at 7:30am CT.
Los Angeles 2.320 2.360 f
DOE Storage (mbbl) F/X NEAR MARKET SUMMARY
Periods Crude Gasoline Distillate USD Index 80.36 Energy
This Week 323.6 218.4 139.1 Brazilian Real 1.866 WTI (Cash) 99.63
Last Week 334.2 218.8 141.5 Canadian Dollar 1.0207 Brent 108.00
Last Year 340.7 217.2 160.7 Euro 1.2958 NYMEX Crude 99.65
Change -10.6 -1.0 -2.4 Japanese Yen 77.64 B100 SME Chicago 4.56
Front Month Ethanol Crush Spread B100 SME Gulf Coast 4.77
B100 FAME Chicago 4.38
8.00 1.5
B100 FAME Gulf Co. 4.55
Ag Products
7.50 1 White Grease (cnt/lb) 36.56
Yellow Grease (cnt/lb) 33.50
Tallow (cnt/lb) 45.50
7.00 0.5
Soybean Meal 306.60
Soybean Oil 51.14
6.50 0
Canola (CAD Dollar) 523.00
Sugar (cnt/lb) 23.51
Dry DDG-Chicago(wkly 201.50
6.00 -0.5 Market Indices
DJ-Commodity Index 139.980
5.50 -1
DJ Industrials 12287.0
10/19/2011 10/29/2011 11/8/2011 11/18/2011 11/28/2011 12/8/2011 12/18/2011 12/28/2011
NASDAQ 2613.74
EtOH x 2.8 Corn Crush Spread S&P 500 1263.01
Gold 1547.40
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation
of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other
person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
2. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY December 29, 2011
RBOB/Ethanol/RINs
3.00 0.10
2.90 0.09
2.80 0.08
2.70 0.07
2.60 0.06
2.50 0.05
2.40 0.04
2.30 0.03
2.20 0.02
2.10 0.01
2.00 0.00
19-Oct 8-Nov 28-Nov 18-Dec
RBOB Ethanol 10 E RINs 11 E RINS
Ethanol RIN Pricing (cts/RIN) Biodiesel RIN Pricing (cts/RIN)
Year Type Bid Ask Year Type Bid Ask
2010 D6 0.05 0.10 2010 D4 129.00 135.00
2010 D3 90.00 105.00 2010 D5 60.00 70.00
2011 D6 0.30 0.35 2011 D4 121.00 125.00
2011 D3 113.00 113.00 2011 D5 75.00 80.00
2012 D6 1.80 2.10 2012 D4 146.00 151.00
2012 D3 113.00 113.00 2012 D5 90.00 95.00
D6 = Corn Ethanol RIN D4 = Biodiesel RIN
D3 = Cellulosic Ethanol RIN D5 = Advanced Biodiesel or Renewable Diesel RIN
RBOB CBOT Ethanol RBOB/Etoh Ethanol Swaps Nationwide Etoh Pricing
Month(s) Spread CBOT Location Bid Ask
Jan 12 2.6801 2.2020 (0.4781) Month(s) Bid Ask Atlanta/Doraville 2.330 2.350
Feb 12 2.6694 2.2190 (0.4504) Jan-12 2.210 2.235 Chicago Rule 11 2.180 2.210
Mar 12 2.6697 2.2420 (0.4277) Feb-12 2.235 2.250 Dallas 2.220 2.250
Apr 12 2.7844 2.2590 (0.5254) Q1 12 2.235 2.250 FOB NE BN 2.030 2.050
May 12 2.7789 2.2710 (0.5079) Q2 12 2.280 2.295 FOB NE UP 2.050 2.070
Jun 12 2.7581 2.2850 (0.4731) Q3 12 2.230 2.250 Northern California 2.320 2.330
Jul 12 2.7322 2.2990 (0.4332) Q4 12 2.090 2.110 Pacifc Northwest 2.300 2.330
Soybean Oil/Heating Oil/Biodiesl RINs
2.0000
4.30
4.10
1.8000
3.90
1.6000
3.70
3.50 1.4000
26.85
3.30
1.2000
3.10
1.0000
2.90
2.70 0.8000
19-Oct 29-Oct 8-Nov 18-Nov 28-Nov 8-Dec 18-Dec 28-Dec
BO $/gal HO 10 BD 11 BD
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any
offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
3. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY December 29, 2011
ETHANOL CHART CORN
R3 2.368 660 R3 671.6
2.800 R2 2.318 650 R2 661.8
2.700 R1 2.270 640
R1 651.0
630
2.600 S1 2.138 620
S1 625.5
2.500 S2 2.097 610 S2 614.6
2.400 S3 2.058 600 S3 605.3
2.300 5DMA 2.203 590
5DMA 630.3
580
2.200
20DMA 2.197 570
20DMA 611.1
2.100
100DMA 2.586 560 100DMA 639.1
2.000 4-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 19-Dec
11-Nov 26-Nov 11-Dec 26-Dec
RBOB SOYBEANS
2.8
R3 2.8512 1240
R3 1252.6
2.75
R2 2.7918 R2 1229.3
1220
R1 2.7630 R1 1211.7
2.7
1200
S1 2.6020 S1 1164.2
2.65
S2 2.5525 1180 S2 1148.5
2.6
S3 2.5048 1160 S3 1122.4
2.55
5DMA 2.6575 1140
5DMA 1181.2
2.5
20DMA 2.6053 20DMA 1154.5
1120
2.45 100DMA 2.6830 100DMA 1218.2
1100
2.4
4-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 19-Dec
4-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 19-Dec
.
CRUDE WHEAT
R3 110.72 665
R3 696.8
102
R2 106.01 655 R2 686.4
R1 102.73 645 R1 672.1
97 S1 96.75 635
S1 620.4
625
S2 94.01 S2 608.7
615
92 S3 90.59 605
S3 752.2
5DMA 99.44 595
5DMA 637.0
87 20DMA 98.28 585 20DMA 613.0
100DMA 94.26 575 100DMA 638.0
82 565
4-Nov 16-Nov 28-Nov 10-Dec 22-Dec 4-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 19-Dec
HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS
3.2 R3 3.0857 R3 3.290
3.15 R2 3.0000 3.9 R2 3.186
3.1
R1 2.9544 3.8 R1 3.089
3.05
S1 2.8815 3.7
S1 2.968
3 3.6
2.95
S2 2.8463 S2 2.883
3.5
2.9 S3 2.7746 3.4
S3 2.838
2.85 5DMA 2.8998 3.3 5DMA 3.087
2.8 20DMA 2.9122 3.2 20DMA 3.224
2.75 100DMA 2.9636 3.1 100DMA 3.612
2.7 3
4-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 19-Dec 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec
WEATHER
City H/L Dry and mild weather is expected across the South today making for
Chicago 44/35 temperatures that are not feeling like normal December temperatures.
North Florida and parts of South Georgia have frost advisories and freeze
New York 38/35
warnings posted. Snow mixed with rain moves into the Midwest for parts
Houston 70/46 of the Ohio Valley and areas surrounding the Great Lakes and this system
Los Angeles 76/53 will move towards the Northeast by tonight. Rain, mountain snow and
wind are expected from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies.
Washington D.C. 48/37 The Interior Northeast sees some snow showers today that spread into
St. Louis 52/41 western New England tonight with some windy conditions that taper off
Naples, Florida 71/48 through the day.
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are
not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources
believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.