1. European crisis, global trade
and the shipping sector
Dr. Demos Petropoulos
Managing Director
DPSS Global Consultants Limited

2. World Economy

3. The wheel of crisis turns slower

4. Economic and Sovereign crisis 2010‐2012
Middle East European Sovereign Debt
Political Unrest Crisis
US and EU‐ High China‐ Increasing
Japan‐Natural Disaster
Unemployment Rates Inflation 4

5. Monetary policy will be extremely
accommodative, but there is a risk Asia continues towards the pinnacle
that inflation remains relatively of power albeit at a lower speed.
high.
‐Real Economic Activity has
weakened and Growth Rates=
↓
‐Trade growth to slow in 2012
after strong deceleration in
2011.
Fiscal policy, financial sector Europe is experiencing a mild
regulation and the oil price poses recession‐but with major regional
the biggest risks to our growth differences.
forecasts. The US weathers the storm.
5

6. Gross Domestic Product around the Globe
Source: Bloomberg 6

7. Source: Bloomberg

8. 8
Source: Bloomberg

9. European Economic Crisis

10. High Private Burst in asset prices
Indebtedness
(Financial Lost
volatility and Competitiveness
uncertainty)
Severe Structural
Unemployment
Weak credit
owing to
banks’ funding
difficulties
European Sovereign
Debt Crisis
10

11. European Economic Sentiment Indicator
Source: EUROSTAT
ESI persistent decline driven by falling confidence in all business sectors, especially
11
in industry and retail trade

12. Real GDP growth and trade of euro area economics, 2008‐11
12
Source: OECD Quarterly national accounts.

15. The Effects of an intensified Euro Area crisis on various Regions
Source: Morgan Stanley

16. Effects on Shipping
Industry

18. Source: Platou, DPSS

19. Source: Platou, DPSS

20. The Global Ship Finance Market
Source: Petrofin / DPSS Research 20

21. The Global Ship Finance Market
21
Source: Petrofin / DPSS Research

22. Total Merchandise Trade ‐ Exports
20.00 50.0%
18.00 40.0%
16.00 30.0%
14.00 20.0%
Value in Trillions US dollars
12.00 10.0%
10.00 0.0%
18.22
8.00 16.13 ‐10.0%
15.25
14.01
6.00 12.12 12.53 ‐20.0%
10.50
9.22
4.00 ‐30.0%
2.00 ‐40.0%
0.00 ‐50.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source : World Trade Orginisation Exports Annual Increase
22

23. Seaborne Dry Bulk Volumes
Mln Tons
5,000 Mln DWT 700
4,500
600
4,000
3,500 500
3,000
400
Other
2,500
Soybean
300
Cement 2,000
Steel products 1,500 200
Grain
1,000
Steam coal
100
Met coal 500
Iron ore 0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Clarksons, DPSS 23

24. Source: Platou, DPSS

25. 100
Global Orderbook and Yard Utilisation 2008‐2012 100%
90 95%
90%
80 90%
84%
83%
70 82% 85%
80%
Global Yard utilisation
60 80%
Million cgt
54
50 50 75%
48
48
45
40 70%
74
67
30 60 63 65%
51
20 60%
10 55%
0 50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Capacity Scheduled delivery Actual delivery Global yard utilisation
Source: Clarksons, Danish Ship Finance 25

26. Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade Volume
10%
9%
8%
7%
Annual growth
6%
5%
9.0% 9.0%
4% 8.0%
7.0%
3%
2%
3.0%
1% 2.0%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Seaborne Dry Bulk trade growth
Source: IHS Global Insight, Danish Ship Finance
26

27. 27
Source: Bloomberg

28. Dry Bulk Fleet Annual Growth
120 18%
17%
100
14%
80 19 12%
10% 18 15 10%
60 23
Million dwt
Scrapping Deliveries
7% 7% 16 26
40 10 6%
9
7 47
20 5 8 42 35
7 28
11 14
0 0%
‐20
‐40 ‐6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize Scrapping Annual increase
Source: Clarksons, Danish Ship Finance
28

30. Source: Platou, DPSS

32. Asian Economies

33. EU TRADE WITH MAIN PARTNERS (2011)
The Major Imports Partners The Major Exports Partners The Major Trade Partners
Rk Partners Million euro % Rk Partners Million euro % Rk Partners Million euro %
Extra EU27 1,683,931.0 100.0% Extra EU27
1,531,122.00 100.0% Extra EU27
3,215,053.0 100.0%
1 China
292,070.9 17.3% 1 UnitedStates
260,566.8 17.0% 1 United States 444,708.0 13.8%
2 Russia
198,178.2 11.8% 2 China
136,216.9 8.9% 2 China 428,287.8 13.3%
3 United States
184,141.2 10.9% 3 Switzerland
121,690.6 7.9% 3 Russia 306,627.1 9.5%
4 Norway 93,528.7 5.6% 4 Russia
108,448.9 7.1% 4 Switzerland 212,894.7 6.6%
5 Switzerland 91,204.1 5.4% 5 Turkey 72,587.6 4.7% 5 Norway 140,059.6 4.4%
6 Japan 67,444.8 4.0% 6 Japan 48,970.3 3.2% 6 Turkey 120,176.0 3.7%
7 Turkey 47,588.4 2.8% 7 Norway 46,531.0 3.0% 7 Japan 116,415.1 3.6%
8 India 39,256.9 2.3% 8 India 40,419.4 2.6% 8 India
79,676.2 2.5%
9 Brazil 37,751.6 2.2% 9 Brazil 35,729.7 2.3% 9 Brazil
73,481.3 2.3%
10 South Korea 36,057.0 2.1% 10 United Arab Emirate 32,614.2 2.1% 10 South Korea
68,475.6 2.1%
11 Saudi Arabia 27,933.3 1.7% 11 South Korea 32,418.5 2.1% 11 Saudi Arabia
54,328.8 1.7%
12 Algeria 27,534.4 1.6% 12 Australia 30,804.9 2.0% 12 Canada
52,459.6 1.6%
13 Nigeria 24,190.0 1.4% 13 Hong Kong 30,189.6 2.0% 13 Singapore
46,068.8 1.4%
14 Taiwan 23,917.1 1.4% 14 Canada 29,607.2 1.9% 14 Algeria
44,739.0 1.4%
15 Canada 22,852.4 1.4% 15 Singapore 27,131.3 1.8% 15 South Africa
43,412.9 1.4%
16 Kazakhstan 22,672.7 1.3% 16 Saudi Arabia 26,395.5 1.7% 16 Australia
42,559.7 1.3%
17 Malaysia 20,988.0 1.2% 17 South Africa 25,639.0 1.7% 17 United Arab Emirate
41,384.3 1.3%
18 Singapore 18,937.5 1.1% 18 Mexico 23,802.6 1.6% 18 Hong Kong
40,322.4 1.3%
19 South Africa 17,774.0 1.1% 19 Ukraine 21,197.0 1.4% 19 Taiwan
40,124.2 1.2%
20 Thailand 17,534.2 1.0% 20 Algeria 17,204.7 1.1% 20 Mexico
40,071.8 1.2%
Other 74.6%
Source: DG Trade Statistics

34. Source: DG Trade Statistics, DPSS Research

36. EU Countries' Debt and % GDP
165.3%
2500 1.8
2,088 1.6
1,949
2000
120.1%
1.4
1,717
107.8%
1.2
98.0%
1500
85.8%
Billion USD
81.2%
1
72.2%
68.5%
65.2%
0.8
1000
735 0.6
0.4
500 362 356 393
217 184 0.2
0 0
Germany France Belgium Austria Greece Italy The Portugal Spain
Netherlands
Debt % GDP
Source: EUROSTAT, Bloomberg, DPSS Research

37. Asia holding up
• Despite the global slowdown Asia :
– enjoys robust domestic demand
– low unemployment
– continued credit growth in the region.
China Japan
• China’s economy expected to grow at 8 • Recovery fueled by reconstruction
percent in 2012 as global demand spending and private consumption
slows • Long‐term challenges include tackling high
• Should downside risks emerge, China public debt, low growth
has room for strong fiscal stimulus • Financial sector has been resilient, but risks
• Chinese currency now assessed as remain
"moderately undervalued"
37

38. • The EU is China’s biggest
trading partner and its largest
ASEAN foreign investor. It is also its
China
biggest competitor in the East
Asian Markets.
• The Chinese market is
• The EU is the becoming a key-role player
largest investor in for intra-Asian and Asia-South
ASEAN countries trade.
but FDI inflows
declined as a • Originally characterised with a
consequence of the strong trade surplus in favour
European crisis. of Japan.
• The EU-Japan trade
Japan relationship has recently
Net Imports become more balanced
€202 bln
Korea • The EU is the biggest investor
Singapore
in South Korea.
• Singapore emerges as the EU’s • EU-South Korea Free trade
main FDI partner among the agreement pushed up trade
ASEAN countries. volume.
38

39. Combine Exports China, Korea, Taiwan
Source: Morgan Stanley, DPSS Research 39

40. Europe Dampens Outlook
Euro Leaders should:
 Diminish all uncertainty caused.
 Tighten monetary policy
 Strengthen fiscal position
 Maintain sustainability of healthy public finances.
 Manage economic and financial integration between
emerging and advanced Europe
40

41. Key Economic Analysis

42. 42

43. Price of Oil 2010‐2012

44. Who Has the Gas?
Data Sources: IEA
44

45. Stocks Performance
The MSCI All‐Country World Index (MXWD) of
stocks dropped 7 percent since the beginning
of May, tumbling to $305.6 last week. The
index today climbed to $305.60, market
volume of 33,31trillion dollars ‐ Bloomberg
data show.

46. Source: Bloomberg

47. DPSS Global Consultants Limited
P.O.Box 70681, Limassol 3801, Cyprus
Telephone : +357 25 734 888
Email : info@dpssglobal.com
Webpage : www.dpssglobal.com

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