Ton Wesseling gave a presentation at ConversionXL Live in Austin on March 31st 2016 about utilizing test capacity. He discussed optimizing conversions through the ROAR model of risk, optimization, automation and re-thinking. Wesseling emphasized fully using a company's test capacity for impactful A/B tests and separating that capacity for IT releases, campaigns and behavioral learning. He advised celebrating failures to encourage risk-taking and continuous learning.
[CXL Live 16] How to Utilize Your Test Capacity? by Ton Wesseling
1. C o n v e r s i o n X L L i v e , A u s t i n , M a r c h 3 1 s t 2 0 1 6
To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Utilize your test capacity
2. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Amazing job
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Johan Cruijff
1947 - 2016
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Lead the way
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”You will only be able to
see it once you get it.”
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Online Dialogue
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Testing.Agency
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Test capacity
maximum number of
a/b-tests per year
that you could run
on your users
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What do companies do within CRO?
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Are companies improving conversion?
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Is it because of the ease of testing?
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Most effective to improve conversions
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Regret
amount of money
you are losing per year by
not using your full test capacity
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the
ROAR
model
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization
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Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation
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Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
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Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
10.000 conversions
per month
1.000 conversions
per month
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How much impact do you need?
http://ondi.me/size
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
10.000 conversions
per month
1.000 conversions
per month
15% impact
needed
5% impact
needed
Impact needed: all conversions with an average conversion rate of 2%, a test length of 3 weeks and a power of 80%
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Yes, I’ve got those 1000+ conversions
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
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With 1000+ conversions a month
Your test capacity is max.
20+ tests a year
with a statistical power of 80%
on predicted uplifts of 15%
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Tests with measurable impact
On average
1 out of 3
Simple truth: you’re just not always able to create a winner with enough impact
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So in this case, you’ve got impact
Every 7 or 8 weeks
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Slower? Energy will run out!
And your continous optimization program will die
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What to test? Business cases!
Delivery –test with
in stock. 4 weeks
or 2 days?
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What to test? Business cases!
Service charge, do
it or not? Include in
price or not?
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What to test? Big design changes
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What to test? Big design changes
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What to test? Big design changes
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ROAR – Optimization – moving up
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
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Source: Psychology
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Use that persuasion knowledge
Wheel-of-Persuasion.com
Resource & courses
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Tests that can be done
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Tests that can be done
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Tests that can be done
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Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Tests that can be done
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Tests that can be done
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Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Tests that can be done
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Tests that can be done
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+ Optimization + Automation
Back to the ROAR model
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
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The Data Driven DNA border
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
46. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Test capacity users
IT releases Campaigns Behavior
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IT release testing
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IT release testing
Testing to see if the release is not
lowering the conversion rate
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Campaign testing
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Campaigns should be bandits
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Maximize your exploitation
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Behavior learning
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Behavior learning
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You need many tests to fill this
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That’s why you need the traffic
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
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Utilize your test capacity #CXLlive
Test capacity users, aiming for:
IT releases Campaigns Behavior
25% or less 25% or less 50% or more
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Calculating behavioral capacity
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Behavioral knowledge test capacity
• Sum your # tests per element
• Take the behavior share
• divide by 2 (no major overlap!)
• Consider your resources
• Get resources or test with higher Power
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Winner ratio
• Know your % winners bottom limit
• Better testing
• Bolder testing
• Less testing (more data in 1 test)
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T-test evaluation problem: Winner
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No Winner?
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Bayesian solution: Winner?
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Winner! – with ROI, which C-level gets
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Bayesian tools & pdf
R Calculator: ondi.me/bayes
White Paper PDF
Free download:
http://ondi.me/change
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ü Use your full test capacity by
great planning
ü Seperate test bandwidth for IT,
campaigns and for learnings
ü Think like a manager – work with
business cases
Be a pro, like Johan was
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An the whole company will love you
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One more thing
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Celebrate failures
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Only celebrating winners will lead to:
People that are scared to create non-winning variations – not taking the risk they should!
70. C o n v e r s i o n X L L i v e , A u s t i n , M a r c h 3 1 s t 2 0 1 6
To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Utilize your test capacity