How human communication behavior is reflected in the internet and where future opportunities lie

1. Communications and
the Internet
How human communication
behavior is reflected in the internet
and where future opportunities lie
1
Tor Bair, Pawan Gupta, Val Lee, Natalie Pitcher, and Upekha Weerasinghe

2. Many theories of technology exist and have
relevant things to say about social products
1Wiebe E. Bijker, Thomas P. Hughes, Trevor Pinch and Deborah G. Douglas. (2012). The Social Construction of Technological Systems, The MIT Press. 6.
http://mitpress-ebooks.mit.edu/pdfreader/social-construction-technological-systems/51!
2Kock: New Theory of Computer-Mediated Communication Based on Darwinian Evolution Organization Science 15(3), pp. 327–348, © 2004 INFORMS.
http://www.tamiu.edu/~nedkock/Pubs/2004JournalOrgScience/Kock2004.pdf!
Social Construction of Technology – human actions shape
technology1
We believe that in the age of the App Store, downloads reflect human shaping of technology to
fit our existing needs
Media naturalness theory – humans are evolved to communicate
face to face and recent innovations are not wired in our brains2
We believe that humans are evolved to communicate across a variety of stone age methods,
including face to face, and choose more natural-like social technologies
2

3. Many theories of technology exist and have
relevant things to say about social products
3Daft, R. L., & Lengel, R. H. (1986). Organizational Information Requirements, Media Richness and Structural Design. Management Science, (5). 554.!
4Dennis, A. R., Fuller, R. M., & Valacich, J. S. (2008). MEDIA, TASKS, AND COMMUNICATION PROCESSES: A THEORY OF MEDIA SYNCHRONICITY. MIS Quarterly, 32(3), 575-600.!
Media richness theory – rich media can better reproduce what is sent
over it reducing uncertainty and ambiguity3
We believe that for social communications a balance of effort needed and importance of the
communication is a deciding factor for communication media choice
Media synchronicity theory – media support synchronicity choice of
media impacts conveyance of information (-) and convergence of
decision making (+)4
We believe that synchronicity is a feature of attention and today conveyance may now also have
a positive relationship in the social communication space
3

4. What is the necessary condition
for communication product
success?
4

5. Successful internet communication
products must closely reflect popular
analog behaviors
5

6. Human communication behaviors have existed for millennia.
Some are popular (talking), others less frequently used (dance, smoke
signals, etc.) 1
Previous technological improvements and advancements have
allowed certain behaviors to be performed in new ways2
(e.g. voice communication at a distance with the telephone)
1http://www.weirdworm.com/10-weird-ways-of-communicating/
2http://science.opposingviews.com/technology-improved-communication-1207.html
Successful internet communication products
will closely reflect popular analog behaviors
6

7. The underlying behavior does not change with the technology according
to Adaptive Structuration Theory1
Technology codifies rules for structures on which human social systems interact1
Product features define the embedded rules that can be used for structures
The internet is creating a set of new products which allow social
communication behavior to be performed in new ways
Product features often reflect structures from general social structures1
Successful products will reflect popular behaviors from before the internet
Products must take popular structures from general society and build them into features
Successful internet communication products
will closely reflect popular analog behaviors
7
1Poole, M., & DeSanctis, G. (1990). Understanding the use of group decision support systems: The theory of adaptive structuration. In J. Fulk, & C. Steinfield (Eds.), Organizations and communication technology. (pp. 173-194).
Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc. doi: http://dx.doi.org.libproxy.mit.edu/10.4135/9781483325385.n8

8. 1Poole, M., & DeSanctis, G. (1990). Understanding the use of group decision support systems: The theory of adaptive structuration. In J. Fulk, & C. Steinfield (Eds.), Organizations and communication technology. (pp. 173-194).
Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc. doi: http://dx.doi.org.libproxy.mit.edu/10.4135/9781483325385.n8
§ Technology provides a set of
structures (feature set) for groups
to interact on1
§ The technology defines the
potential interactions1
§ Groups choose whether and how
to use the technology in their
lives1
§ Successful technologies will
create value for users and mirror
existing popular society
structures
Key step:
does product feature match
with users’ existing behaviors
and structures?
Interaction of social system and technology1 shows how
design needs to reflect existing structures
8

9. How do system dynamics help
us understand communication
product popularity over time?
9

10. The four variables in an entrepreneur’s control that most
impact likelihood of success are:
1. Popularity of the underlying communication structure
and human behavior
2. Product value independent of network effects
3. Marketing effort
4. Novelty
Marketing and novelty initiate product success but
sustained product growth relies on the first variables.
10

11. 11
Until network effects take control, an entrepreneur
can leverage novelty and marketing to get traction
§ Before network effects (R2, R3)
come into play, entrepreneurs
have four variables (in red)
which they control!
§ Product and feature choice
lead define novelty, product
value, and popularity of human
behavior variables!
§ Marketing spend can be a
separate decision!
§ Until networks effects appear
(they are delayed), these four
factors control how rapidly
users will join and leave!
v

12. 12
Network effects can occur with an unpopular behavior
and low value product through marketing and novelty
• Products built on features that
are not designed to support
popular behaviors struggle to
get network effects!
• If novelty is high enough, the
user departure rate may be slow
enough to allow network effects
to occur!
• Marketing in this case is critical
to getting enough people on
board for network effects!
• As novelty wears off, these
products might find user
departures rise and network
effects fall!
v

13. 13
Four main types of user patterns may emerge
given a particular product feature
§ Even simple products and
features that clearly reflect
communication methods of
the past can see
exponential growth (R1 and
R2 loops are strong)!
§ Novelty may kindle and
steepen the initial growth,
but such product features
subsequently collapse (high
User Departure Rate)!
§ When features reach
maturity – no dropoff, but
full saturation of user base
that derives value – we see
goal seeking patterns (B1
loop dominates)!

14. 14
Product features may layer in one product to
create or inhibit product growth over time
§ As products evolve,
new features are layered
that augment, replace, or
supplement existing
features in the product!
§ Adding features to
leverage past features that
were based on novelty will
see diminishing returns!
§ Adding features to
leverage past features
which support popular
behaviors leads to a
strong network effect

15. Thousands of social products and messaging applications are built
each month
But which should be made?
§ Disappearing, social game pictures, secret chat?1
§ Video, gif, photo mashups?2
§ Anonymous messaging apps?3
Further, which will have the popularity to remain long term?4,5
By determining the alignment of a product to existing behavior, we can
assess the likelihood of success and explain whether a product or
behavior will last
1http://rumrapp.com/, http://shotclock.net/
2https://www.trioapp.co/
3https://www.secret.ly/
4http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/06/overrun-with-messaging-apps/
5http://www.wired.com/2013/12/confusing-message/
These insights are powerful – long term success relies
on reflecting popular historical human behaviors
15

16. What is the framework for
thinking about products and the
human behaviors they support?
16

17. Understand complexity and popularity of
human behavior to identify the implementation
needs and viability of a communication
technology.
17

18. Complexity of Analog Interaction (How hard is it to do)
Popularity of
Analog
Interaction
(How many
people do
this)
Speaking pig
latin
Share a
picture
Creating
artworks
Talking
Leave an
anonymous
message
Meet dating
partners
Share an
album of
photos
Telling a
secret
Gossip
Rumors
Existing human social communication
behaviors range in complexity and popularity
18

19. Well
implemented
Not
implemented
Popular
behavior
Unpopular
behavior
Poorly
implemented
§ Features and the products
incorporating them will
succeed or fail based on
whether they support popular
behaviors
§ Popular behaviors can be
poorly implemented in features
which limits their value to a
product
§ We see opportunity in popular
social behaviors that are not
implemented well in current
products
Not all product features align to a popular
behavior or are implemented well
Feature Opportunity
Space
19

20. How do we apply this framework
to examine whether products are
aligned with existing behavior?
20

21. Examine historical communication behaviors
in a specific dimension and determine if a
current messaging technology enables
interaction in that space.
21

22. 22
App Name
Communication features categorized by dimension
How
When
Who
Basic texting
Calling
Photo/Video
Virtual Reality
Ephemeral
One-tap messaging
Anonymous
Privacy
Location based
Social
Businesses
Third-party platform
WhatsApp
✔ ✔ ✔
Viber
✔ ✔ ✔
Instagram
✔
Snapchat
✔ ✔ ✔
Yo
✔
Fb Messenger
✔
TapTalk
✔
Whisper
✔
Frankly Chat
✔
WeChat
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Kakao
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Kik
✔ ✔
Telegram
✔
Wickr
✔ ✔
Twitter
LINE
✔
Secret
✔ ✔
Oculus VR
✔ ✔
Yik Yak
✔ ✔
Current social products have features that span
across communication dimensions

23. 23
These products can be mapped across
dimensions in different ways to identify gaps

24. 1. Consider which communication dimension the product is innovating:
Methodology for determining likelihood of
communication product success
24
Who?
How?
When?
- Audience
- Networks
- Anonymity
- Writing
- Voice
- Multi-sensory
- Immediate
- Delayed
- Permanence

25. 2. Examine what historical communication technologies have evolved
and enabled communication in that dimension over time
Methodology for determining likelihood of
communication product success
25
Written
language
Transportation
Voice
communication
Internet
Smart Phone
many-
many
1-1
1-many

26. 3. How is communication in that dimension reflected in the current
messaging space?
Methodology for determining likelihood of
communication product success
26
Written
language
Transportation
Voice
communication
Internet
Smart Phone
many-
many
1-1
1-many

27. 3a. Many key human social behaviors are reflected well:
§ Talking ---- VoIP
§ Seeing a person ---- Skype
§ Writing a message ---- Email, iMessage
Methodology for determining likelihood of
communication product success
27
Internet

28. 3b. Is the current communication technology not reflecting a need?
• à High probability of failure
• à Unsustainable
• à Relies on novelty
• Several key human social behaviors are not reflected well:
• Complex social interactions:
• Secrets
• Rumors
• Gossip
Methodology for determining likelihood of
communication product success
28
Internet
?
?
?

29. 3c. Is there a need that is not reflected?
• à Opportunity
• A few key human social behaviors are not reflected yet:
• Touchà ?
• Back channel/Telepathyà ?
Methodology for determining likelihood of
communication product success
29
Internet
!
?

30. Examples of product reflections
30

31. Successfully reflected product:
Snapchat
31

32. The need: to share interact with people in a natural way including 1) with full
attention at the moment of interaction 2) impermanency of memory
What constitutes a Snapchat?
§ Know the person
§ Share something about your life with them
§ Interaction is low effort for both parties
§ Messages disappear and cannot be shared
§ Asynchronous interaction, but high attention given
How this Snapchat reflect real life encounters:
§ Moments in real life are fleeting
§ Most interactions are not permanently recorded
§ Personal interaction with someone you know and value
Successfully reflected product: Snapchat

33. A product based on an existing need and need with novelty will grow rapidly
with some marketing.
Why is ephemeral messaging popular?
§ Mirrors need to communicate without being recorded
§ Lowers barriers to content production because automatic deletion reduces concerns about
quality
§ The more people who will see something, the more quality invested to ‘look good’ (e.g. Instagram filters and
apps to test pictures with your friends before posting)
§ Demands attention from the recipient which gives value to sender
§ Messages are sent to be received – senders value knowing their messages have impact
Successfully reflected product: Snapchat

34. Snapchat is now valued at $21 billion and is still growing in users and value.
Snapchat is now trying to extend its product into new areas to gain more consumer
attention share.
§ Snapchat Stories were released in October 2013 with the intention of giving content a
place to live on for a longer, but still temporary period
§ Later releases of Stories includes the ability for stories to be created with other people
§ Snapchat released Snapcash in November 2014 to gain a part of the mobile payments
space which has been rapidly growing
§ Feature’s popularity has been relatively low according to reports1,2
§ Snapchat Discover launched in January 2015 to monetize the platform
§ Product saw over 1 million daily active users, declined to only 700K3
§ Attempts to make sharing the Discover videos easier may work
Successfully reflected product: Snapchat
1http://www.businessinsider.com/what-millennials-think-of-snapchat-discover-2015-4?utm_source=API%27s+Need+to+Know+newsletter&utm_campaign=92d2708870-
Need_to_Know_May_1_20155_1_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e3bf78af04-92d2708870-45802809
2http://www.inklingsnews.com/b/2015/03/27/snapcash-remains-unpopular-among-students/
3http://techcrunch.com/2015/05/05/snapchat-discover-messages/

35. 35
Graph constructed from data in http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-we-estimate-snapchat-has-upwards-70-million-users-globa and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Snapchat
Successfully reflected product: Snapchat

36. 36
36
Successfully reflected product: Snapchat
§ Now that Snapchat has
achieved a user base
exceeding 100M MAUs,
will it see a trajectory like
Facebook’s (now well-
beyond 1.4 billion users)
or Twitter’s (now 300M
MAUs)?!
§ All indications are that
Snapchat will continue its
growth given its success
in evolving the product so
far, similar to Facebook’s
effectiveness on product!

37. Poorly reflected product: Secret
37

38. Having a clever name and anonymous messaging doesn’t mean Secret is a good place for
secrets
What makes a Secret?
• Don’t know who said it (but have some idea if they are near or a friend)
• Content is not about anyone you know (due to cyber-bulling prevention)
• No trust is given in sharing (your identity is not disclosed)
• No power is gained in receiving (recipient cannot hold secret over sharer)
• Secrets last forever in feed (secret is both unprotected and not secret)
What makes a real secret?
• Both parties know each other à power and trust are transmitted
• Information shared is of interest to both parties à meaningful interactions
• Shared information can be re-shared à up to recipient based on trust/value
38
Poorly reflected product: Secret

39. “Anonymish” messaging is predicated on sharing secret ideas with a community
Anonymous messages (the analog reflection) are useful when
§ Sender is not important to value of message for receiver
§ Sender wants to be heard but no one wants to listen
§ Sender wants to communicate but does not want to be identified
Analog examples of analog anonymous message behavior occur in some
subsections of society
§ Bathroom graffiti in high schools
§ Extreme statements
§ Hobos sharing information on houses through codes during the Depression
None of these are highly popular behaviors in mainstream society
Poorly reflected product: Secret
39

40. So, if sharing secret ideas in a community isn’t really a need, what happens?
Anonymish messaging does not pass our test for sustainable long term success –
the reflected behavior is not really that popular
§ The first canary has died – Secret is winding up operations1
§ Whisper and YikYak – do they have a future?
What explains the success of these types of products if they are not destined to be
great?
§ We believe our System Dynamics perspective helps – novelty can carry a product for a while
§ User acquisition grows fast enough to make up for user departures/inactivity in the beginning
§ Novelty wears off and active user counts fall with not enough new users
§ Is the only hope finding new novelties or is it possible to find valuable features to keep users?
Poorly reflected product: Secret
40
1
h.p://www.wsj.com/ar;cles/anonymous-­‐social-­‐networking-­‐app-­‐secret-­‐shuts-­‐down-­‐1430353006

41. But, telling secrets is popular – could there be an internet-based product for this behavior?
What makes a real secret?
§ Both parties know each other ---- power and trust are transmitted
§ Information shared is of interest to both parties ---- meaningful interactions
§ Shared information can be re-shared ---- up to recipient based on trust/value
§ Low traceability ---- trust is key to recipient in assessing value of information
So if we want to design an internet product to share secrets well, we need to consider
these dynamics of real secrets.
Product functions
§ Ephemerality – secrets are not often permanently posted or shared
§ Provenance – must be clear who sends and received
§ Re-shareability – must facilitate forward propagation of valuable information
Snapchat succeeds with ephemerality and provenance, but does not have re-shareablity
41
Poorly reflected product: Secret

42. Reflecting a non-existent need:
ChatRoulette
42

43. The “need” : to encounter/interact with strangers with no commitment or
transaction involved.
Reflecting a non-existent need: ChatRoulette
43

44. What constitutes a Chat Roulette encounter?
§ Don’t know the person
§ Non-transactional interaction
§ No network, location or identity ties
§ Ability to dismiss interaction with no consequences (not even awkwardness)
§ Potential to interact in a non-constrained way
This “need” does not reflect popular real life behaviors:
§ No possibility to continue the connection
§ No minimal validity of location or network
§ No location/context based meetings -> no shared demographics, less shared/meaningful
interactions
In real life people meet strangers to:
§ Gain new sustainable connections in areas of interest
§ Share meaningful information
Reflecting a non-existent need: ChatRoulette
44

45. A product relying on novelty without a base in real human communication needs
loses on user retention.
Why is meeting new people without accountability, future potential, or shared
current interest not sustainable?
§ With no accountability (no network, location ties) potential for abuse (indecent exposure) or
abrupt disconnection (being ‘nexted’) is huge.
§ With no common demographic ties, content for interaction is mostly one-off or sensational
encounters, rather than foundation for sustained interaction.
§ Positives of sensational encounters are undermined by the potential for unwanted nudity
and potential rejections.
§ Sustainability is undermined by the fact that the interactions are ephemeral and are not
grounded in shared context or interest and are missing potential for continuity.
45
Reflecting a non-existent need: ChatRoulette

46. At its peak in early 2010, Chat Roulette had as many as 1.5 million users using the
site at one time.
Now lack of accountability and network connections threaten its viability.
§ RJ Metrics survey reveals 89% of users are male and 1/8 spins reveals unrequested nudity.
§ June 2010 Chatroulette has its first month of reduced usership and Slate declares Chatroulette
dead. “Cause of death: penises”
§ Chat Roulette threatens legal action and starts blocking IP addresses of reported offenders.
§ Now, when users are flagged for inappropriate content, they are automatically transferred to
partner sites (like friendfinder.com) and Chatroulette earns referral traffic
§ Later in 2010, topical and location-based channels (Channelroulette and Localroulette) are
introduced to segment users and provide more location ties.
• The adult channels become the most popular Chat Roulette channel.
§ Both efforts (transferring users and segmentation) attempt to remedy the accountability
and network issues. But usership still lags.
Reflecting a non-existent need: ChatRoulette
46
WSJ: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2010/08/30/the-decline-and-fall-of-chatroulette/
RJ Metrics: http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/16/chatroulette-stats-male-perverts/
Salon: http://www.salon.com/2010/06/29/requiem_for_chatroulette/

47. Not yet fully reflected: Touch
47

48. The human need for touch as communication:
§ Primary form of human communication, pre-dates and has more importance than language
in human evolution. Enables social and biological development. 1
§ Studies show that touch builds cooperative relationships, increases likelihood of compliance,
calms by signaling safety, promotes trust and generosity, has significant therapeutic effects,
and can trigger the release of oxytocin (love hormone). 2
Current uses of touch as emotional communication:
§ Greeting, affection, support, empathy, anger, dominance, desire, encouragement, soothing.
Current uses of touch as functional communication:
§ Direction, warning, increasing compliance.
Daily touch threshold:
§ “We need 4 hugs a day for survival, 8 for maintenance, and 12 for growth.”3
1. http://www.depauw.edu/learn/lab/publications/documents/touch/2006_Touch_The%20communicative_functions_of_touch_in_humans.pdf
2. http://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/hands_on_research
3. Satir, Virginia http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2014/02/06/hugging.aspx
Not yet fully reflected: Touch
48

49. Existing touch messaging technologies:
• “Taptic” engine for tap messaging (Apple Watch)1
• Feel someone’s heartbeat (Apple watch)
• Vibration messaging (in wearables, or in avocado app which ‘hugs’ by sending a
vibration to your partners smartphone when you hold yours to your heart)
The future of touch messaging technologies:
• Functional- haptic feedback for directional navigation, warnings.
• Emotional- multisensory internet for long distance relationships2, discreet messaging.
• Features include temperature, pressure, vibration, taste and smell:
• Virtual hugs (hug a doll, person wearing a virtual cuddle coat feels overall pressure)
• Kissing machines transmit physical/tactile actions
• Send smell and touch by using magnetic coils to stimulate brain signals in receiver. Potential
to use this for touch as well, but the threshold is still very close to pain so more development
needed2
1. http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-apple-watch-real-touch-messaging-2014-9
2. Adrian David Cheok, Keio University Mixed Reality Lab http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/the-multi-sensory-internet-brings-smell-taste-and-touch-to-the-web
Not yet fully reflected: Touch
49

50. Mapping the communication
product space
50

51. Successful internet communication
products must closely reflect popular
analog behaviors.
51

52. If we examine historical communication
behaviors, we can determine if current
messaging platforms successfully reflect
those interactions.
52

53. 53
Internet
!
?
Poor reflections result in failures.
Missing reflections suggest opportunities.

54. We can then assess the complexity and
popularity of human behavior to
understand the implementation needs
and viability of the technology.
54

55. 55
Well
implemented
Not
implemented
Popular
structure
Unpopular
structure
Poorly
implemented
Feature
Opportunity
Space
There is opportunity in popular social structures that
are not implemented well.

56. This mapping identifies opportunity spaces for products
and features that clearly reflect historically popular
communication methods which enable a strong network
effect and promote exponential growth.
56