Blog – Food Processing and Agriculture Sector Analysis and Commentary – May 2023 Summary Russia and China have a stranglehold on the world's food security Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the role of fertilisers — and who controls them — as a strategic lever of global influence Measuring the concentration of harmful gases in an underground potash mine at the Usolskiy Potash Complex in the Perm region of Russia in 2017. Source: Bloomberg The cargo trapped for months at the Dutch port of Rotterdam was so precious that the United Nations intervened to mediate its release. The World Food Programme chartered a ship to transport it to Mozambique, from where it's being taken by truck through the interior to its end destination, Malawi. It's not grain or maize, but 20,000 metric tons of Russian fertiliser, and it can't come soon enough. About 20% of Malawi's population is projected to face acute food insecurity during the "lean season" through March, making the use of fertilisers to grow crops all the more vital. It's one of 48 nations in Africa, Asia and Latin America identified by the International Monetary Fund as most at risk from the shock to food and fertiliser costs fanned by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One year on, the upheaval caused to world fertiliser markets is seen by the UN as a key risk to food availability in 2023. Yet alongside humanitarian considerations, it's the realisation that much of the world relies on just a few nations for most of its fertilisers — notably Russia, its ally Belarus and China — that's ringing alarm bells in global capitals. Just as semiconductors have become a lightning rod for geopolitical friction, so the race for fertilisers has alerted the US and its allies to a strategic dependency for an agricultural input that is a key determinant of food security. Fertiliser Giants China maintains a big lead in nitrogen and phosphate production That's pushed fertilisers — and who controls them — to the forefront of the political agenda around the world: The US State Department is beefing up its expertise on fertilisers, presidents are tweeting about them, they're featuring in election campaigns, and becoming the focus of tensions between countries as well as an unlikely currency of diplomacy. They're also being pulled into the contest of narratives over who's to blame for the fallout from Russia's war on Ukraine. "The role of fertiliser is as important as the role of seed in the country's food security," said Udai Shanker Awasthi, managing director and chief executive officer of the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative, the country's largest producer. "If your stomach is full then you can defend your house, you can defend your borders, you can defend your economy." Source – https://www.tbsnews.net/bloomberg-special/russia-and-china-have-stranglehold-worlds-food-security-588022

1. Agriculture Output
and Equipment
Sector - Analysis and
Commentary – May
2023
SENIOR DATA AND AI
SPECIALIST - PAUL
YOUNG CPA CGA
MAY 14, 2023

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – ESG and Sustainability Reporting
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: paul_young_cga@outlook.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/

3. Agenda
 North American AG Equipment Sales
 Commodity Prices
 AG Prices – Canada
 Preliminary Crop Estimates – Canada
 Oilseeds
 Energy Prices
 Carbon Tax
 Food Prices
 Hospitality Sector
 Farming Income
 Top Farming States
 Food Processors
 Technology and Farming
 Government and Farming
 Debt
 Rail Car Loading
 Summary

4. North American Equipment Sales
Source - https://www.aem.org/Market-Data/

5. Key Commodity Prices (BMO)
Source – BMO Economics
PRESENTATION TITLE
2/11/20XX
5

6. Diesel
Cost
SOURCE -
HTTPS://YCHARTS.COM/INDIC
ATORS/US_RETAIL_DIESEL_PRIC
E

7. Food
Prices
SOURCE -
HTTP://WWW.FAO.ORG/WORL
DFOODSITUATION/FOODPRICE
SINDEX/EN/
7
PRESENTATION TITLE 2/11/20XX

8. Hospitality Sector
Hospitality sector continues to face labour shortages and high food costs
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/secret/4Akxh6WTy4BChK

9. Blog – Food Prices
Blog - With Demand Soaring, Booming Food Sector Turns to Food Contract Manufacturing
As demand for food products increases nationwide, businesses are frequently turning to food contract
manufacturing companies to meet that increased need rather than adding additional capacity internally.
Anticipating that demand will eventually return to normal levels, food producers can work with an experienced
co-packer to enhance their operational efficiency without needing to make substantial asset or equipment
investments in-house that may sit unused later on.
Sourcing for food contract manufacturing on the Thomasnet.com platform is up 133% year over year and up
277% over last quarter averages.
Source - https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/with-demand-soaring-booming-food-sector-turns-to-food-contract-
manufacturing/?ecms_id=03a9e6f7-1a59-4bb8-88af-
2bd41a26780d&ecms_short=ART5898&doc_type=ted_video_article&parent_id=8250e2ab-aea8-49ec-ad90-
fe73f30b2122&utm_content=featuredvideo&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_industry_update&ca
mpaign_name=tiu211004&utm_campaign=tiu211004&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_industry_update&tinid
=221763045
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/food-and-beverage-analysis-and-commentary

10. Farm Income
 Farming Income in Canada has been struggling for the past few years -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191126/dq191126b-eng.htm
 USA farm income and aid - https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/us-farm-income-expected-to-
rise-in-2019-but-only-because-of-government-aid
 AG subsidies - https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/world-farm-subsidies-hit-2-billion-a-day
 Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decrease $9.8 billion (8.1 percent) to $111.4
billion in 2021. In inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decrease $12 billion (9.7
percent) in 2021 after increasing $37.8 billion (44.2 percent) in 2020 to its highest level since 2013. Despite
this decline, 2021 net farm income would be 21 percent above its 2000-19 average of $92.1 billion.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/highlights-from-the-farm-
income-forecast/

11. Farm Income – 2021 Farm Income
2021.pdf

12. Farm Income – 2021 Farm Income
2021.pdf

13. Canada
and Farm
Receipts
SOURCE – STATS CANADA
Farm Income -
202109.pdf

14. Farm Receipts – January 2022 to June
2022

15. Farm Receipts – January 2022 to June
2022

16. Farm Receipts – January 2022 to June
2022

17. Farm Receipts
Source – Stats Canada
Farm Receipts.pdf

18. Farm Receipts
Source – Stats Canada
Farm Receipts.pdf

19. 2020 Farm Income Analysis
Blog - Farm Income
and Expenses - Canada.pdf

20. 2020 Farm Income Analysis
Blog - Farm Income
and Expenses - Canada.pdf

21. Top Farming States
Source - https://www.statista.com/statistics/196114/top-10-us-states-by-number-of-farms/

22. Food Processors
 Source - www.fao.org or https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/09/04/1910664/0/en/Food-Processing-Market-to-Exceed-4-Trillion-
by-2024-Key-Trends-Analysis-Opportunities-to-Succeed.html

23. Plastic Greenhouses / CO2
 35% of China’s vegetables come from plastic green houses -
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/03/plastic-greenhouses-provide-35-of-chinas-vegetables.html
 Greenhouse farming - https://gulfnews.com/uae/environment/popularity-of-greenhouse-farming-
options-on-the-rise-1.842642
 South Korea - https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9306173/overview-vegetable-horticulture-in-south-
korea/
 Global Market - https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global-plastic-greenhouse-market
 Ontario/Greenhouses - https://windsor.ctvnews.ca/ontario-government-investing-3-6-million-toward-
innovation-projects-in-the-greenhouse-sector-1.5285128
 NZ and the Middle East - https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9307955/new-zealand-has-a-huge-tech-
opportunity-in-the-middle-east-s-growing-horticulture-industry/

24. Technology and Farming
 AI is transforming farming - https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/07/05/how-ai-is-transforming-
agriculture/#1fa34bec4ad1
 AI and farming - https://customerthink.com/the-role-of-artificial-intelligence-in-agriculture-sector/
 IBM and farming - https://farmtario.com/news/ibm-expands-artificial-intelligence-platform-into-agriculture/
 RPA and Farming - https://blog.accubits.com/robotic-process-automation-in-agribusiness/
 IBM and Expert Farming - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmplan-using-ibm-pairs-to-predict-blackgrass-weed-
before-it-damages-crops-301151067.html
 AG App - https://www.techrepublic.com/article/farming-assistant-app-agrolly-wins-ibms-call-for-code-contest/
 Smart farming - https://farmingfirst.org/2020/10/transforming-agriculture-through-smart-farming-from-data-ownership-to-open-
data/
 Telecom/Farming - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/agriculture-analytics-market-reach-2-133100885.html
 Blockchain and Food Protection - https://blog.trustbix.com/how-blockchain-can-support-food-supply-chain-management
 Vegetation Management - https://www.ibm.com/products/environmental-intelligence-suite/vegetation-
management?utm_content=SRCWW&p1=Search&p4=43700072984281975&p5=e&gclid=CjwKCAjwjYKjBhB5EiwAiFdSfjyCjHlka8hv
39wzA0cAUfeRemyNnZa8q1kC-zmYd0gI-Ji58HUdehoC-e4QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

25. Government / Farming
 Elimination of trade barriers - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-for-global-
trade-protectionism
 More emphasis on local supply chain management solutions -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/tranformation-of-supply-chains
 Tax fairness and regulatory reforms - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/does-the-world-need-
a-wealth-tax
 Government provides direct subsidies and/or loans to farmers
 Government needs to revisit all their programs to ensure various programs are efficient and effective -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/market-food-protein-market-analysis-and-commentary or
https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_lpt_e_934.html or https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/03/08/BC-
Carbon-Tax-Failure/
 Automation can help with automation of audits - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-audit-and-
performance-base-auditing

26. Farm Debt
Source -
https://www.portageonline.c
om/ag/agriculture-news-
mb/fcc-economist-says-
farm-debt-under-control-
watch-for-higher-interest-
rates

27. USA Farm Debt
Source -
https://farmpolicynews.illinoi
s.edu/2021/06/farm-lending-
remains-strong-in-2020-
american-bankers-
association-report/

28. Car Loading / Rail
SOURCE – STATS CANADA

29. Car Loading / Rail - USA

30. Summary
 Farmers continue face issues with input costs
 Improving crop and food production is a focus area by both the private and public sectors
Blog – Food Processing and Agriculture Sector Analysis and Commentary – May 2023
Summary
Russia and China have a stranglehold on the
world's food security
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the role of
fertilisers — and who controls them — as a strategic lever of
global influence
Measuring the concentration of harmful gases in an underground potash mine at the Usolskiy
Potash Complex in the Perm region of Russia in 2017. Source: Bloomberg
The cargo trapped for months at the Dutch port of Rotterdam was so precious that the
United Nations intervened to mediate its release. The World Food Programme chartered a
ship to transport it to Mozambique, from where it's being taken by truck through the
interior to its end destination, Malawi.
It's not grain or maize, but 20,000 metric tons of Russian fertiliser, and it can't come soon
enough.
About 20% of Malawi's population is projected to face acute food insecurity during the "lean
season" through March, making the use of fertilisers to grow crops all the more vital. It's one of
48 nations in Africa, Asia and Latin America identified by the International Monetary Fund as
most at risk from the shock to food and fertiliser costs fanned by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
One year on, the upheaval caused to world fertiliser markets is seen by the UN as a key risk to
food availability in 2023.