- The document provides an overview of gasoline prices in Canada, including factors that influence prices such as crude oil prices, taxes, and refining costs. It also discusses the impact of the federal carbon tax on gasoline prices and consumers. - Key refineries and production statistics for Canada are presented from various sources. The potential effects of higher fuel costs on supply chains and consumers are noted. - The document expresses skepticism about carbon taxes and their effectiveness in reducing emissions, citing concerns about economic impacts and the small share of global emissions from Canada. Alternative environmental policies are suggested.

1. Anatomy of Gasoline
Prices – July 2019
Paul Young CPA, CGA
Date: July 9, 2019

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and
Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Agenda
• Price of Gasoline
• Nanticoke Refinery (Key Refinery
• Refineries / Canada
• Refined Petroleum
• New fuel standard taxation
• Blog / Carbon Taxation

4. Summary
• Toronto ranks the worse North American city for commute times -
https://globalnews.ca/news/4287922/toronto-worst-city-commuting-
north-america/. The more idling the more gas is consume by vehicles
• There is no link to carbon tax and reduction in emissions. For carbon
taxes to be effective they would have to be set very high to discourage
people from driving. High carbon tax would kill the economy
• Goods and Services input costs would reflect higher gasoline costs. The
carbon tax could take 1,100 to 2,200 out of people’s pocket and do
nothing for emissions.
• Carbon tax are not revenue neutral -
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/bc-budget-acknowledges-the-
carbon-tax-was-not-revenue-neutral

5. Price of Gasoline
Ontario
2018 to
2015
18-Jan 18-Feb 18-Mar 18-Apr 18-May 2018 2017 2016 2015 Change
Average
(regular)
$
123.1
$
122.2
$
123.4
$
132.1
$
135.4
$
127.2
$
113.7
$
100.9
$
107.27 18.6%
-0.8% 1.0% 7.1% 2.5% 11.9% 12.7% -5.9%
Crude Oil
Price 63.66 62.21 62.76 66.26 69.59
$
62.94
$
50.91
$
43.21
$
48.72 29.2%
% change -2.3% 0.9% 5.6% 5.0% 23.6% 17.8% -11.3%
Average Fill
up Per year
Gas Prices
$
127.2
$
50 52
Crude Oil Cost 0.54
$
68.712
$
27
$
1,404
Refining 0.17
$
21.631
$
9
$
442 Taxes
Fed Tax 0.12
$
15.269
$
6
$
312 Fed
$
312
Province Tax 0.14
$
17.814
$
7
$
364 Prov
$
364
Carbon Tax 0.03
$
3.817
$
2
$
78
$
78
Total 100.0%
$
127.2
$
50.000
$
2,600
$
754 29.0%
https://globalnews.ca/news/3936577/ontario-carbon-pricing-cap-
and-trade-carbon-tax/
• Ontario Carbon tax is 4.3 cents a liter
• Higher fuel costs -
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.
org/analysis/countries-carbon-taxes-see-
higher-energy-prices/
• USA is not pushing for carbon tax
• 30% of what people pay at the pump is
taxes
• Refineries operational costs are
influence by Energy, labour, raw
material, cost of capital and delivery
• AB built the first new refinery in decades
-
http://business.financialpost.com/comm
odities/energy/a-new-refinery-in-
alberta-has-come-to-the-rescue-of-
battered-oil-producers-so-why-is-its-ceo-
sad
• Ontario Federal liberals are pushing
carbon tax at all costs.

6. Oil Prices, Inflation and Average Gasoline Price
Source – Stats Canada, BakerHuges, BMO Economics

7. Nanticoke Refinery
Source - http://www.imperialoil.ca/en-ca/company/operations/refining-and-supply/nanticoke

8. Refineries – Canada – Sample
Source - http://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/projects/canadian-refineries

9. Oil Sector –
Canada –
April 2019
Source -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/
daily-quotidien/190705/dq190705b-
eng.pdf

10. Refined / Petroleum – Canada –September
2018
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/daily-
quotidien/180615/dq180615c-eng.pdf?st=vluEQ4rm

11. Carbon Tax / Gasoline
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/price-of-carbon-and-the-impact-on-taxpayers-and-
consumers
• https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/goldstein-will-trudeau-be-our-carbon-
crusader#comments
• Trudeau and his team listen to only UN, Soros and Butts. Butts is the same guy that destroy
Ontario’s economy with his FIT policy
•
• https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-next-year-the-carbon-tax-debate-goes-to-
court?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1545886677
•
• Forest Management
• https://climatechangedispatch.com/red-spruce-growth-
co2/?fbclid=IwAR1vpeRA8vpZyhOB8zRwWmqd0K6XXthZquvH2M1l-SSyj2Elbuyj82XN4DU
•

12. Michelle Rempel vs Bill Morneau – Carbon Tax

13. Middle Class and Gasoline
“Dan McTeague, a senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.com, says
gasoline prices are at near-18-month lows because of global oil
prices that have tumbled over the past two months on worries of an
economic downturn, a U.S.-China trading tiff and concerns that
members of the OPEC oil cartel won’t live up to production cuts.”
Source -
https://www.thestar.com/business/markets/2018/12/27/gasoline-
prices-in-most-of-canada-set-to-rise-this-weekend-from-18-month-
lows.html

14. Blog – Gasoline
• This credit system will not work. BC used a credit system as such been hammered with
high gasoline taxes.
• Carbon Tax credits lower than Feds projected -
https://globalnews.ca/news/5368001/canada-average-carbon-tax-rebates/
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/anatomy-of-gasoline-prices-december-2018
BC Tax was not revenue neutral
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/b-c-s-carbon-tax-no-longer-revenue-neutral-fraser-
institute-1.673840

15. What’s next
• The next government will need to scrap carbon taxation as it does
nothing for the environment
• There should be more emphasis on how gas is blended as part of
more clean gases.
• There is more to environment that CO2 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-climate-
change-and-the-environment-canada-june-2019
• Canada could eliminate all its emission and it would do nothing for
the world-wide emissions.

16. Fuel Standards
Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-andrew-scheer-clean-fuel-standard-1.5204091
• Vehicle efficiency has improved over the past decade or so - https://canada.autonews.com/government-
relations/canada-fuel-efficiency-crossroads-us-aims-lower-auto-emissions-standards
• Federal government keeps pushing electrical cars. Electrical cars have their own issues.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-zero-emissions-electrical-vehicles-canada
• Any changes to price of gasoline will impact the supply chain as gasoline costs will be passed on to
consumers through higher prices - https://globalnews.ca/news/5407052/canada-inflation-2-4-may-2019/
• Gasoline taxes are regressive taxation as such hurt the low to middle class more than the wealthiest
• Many of the transit fleets are still diesel. Any hikes to gas prices will impact the cost of transit -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/election-transit-canada-april-2019