Presentation from Engage 2019 (Brussels) on AI past, present and future

1. AI: What Is It Good For?
Paul Withers, Intec Systems Ltd
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2. Paul Withers
• ICS and Watson Developer
• Lifetime IBM Champion
• OpenNTF Board Member
• Watson Assistant Developer
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3. tl;dr
• NOT “Nothing”
• A.I. is a product of nurture, not nature
• Need to understand investment, effort and impacts
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4. HISTORY OF A.I.
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5. Alan Turing
• Turochamp (1948)
• Turing Test (1950)
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6. Herbert Simon, Alan Newell (1955)
• The Logic Theorist
• Proved theorems from Principia Mathematica
• Rise of heuristics
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7. Arthur Samuel, IBM (1959)
• Coined the term
“machine learning”
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8. Moravec’s Paradox
“It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit
adult level performance on intelligence tests or
playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give
them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to
perception and mobility”
Moravec, Hans (1988), Mind Children, Harvard University Pre
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9. What Is This?
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10. Machine vs Human
• Deep Blue (1997)
• Watson (2011)
• AlphaGo (2016)
• AlphaZero (2017)
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11. AlphaZero
• Untrained neural network
• Only knows basic rules
• Plays against itself, initially randomly, then learning
• First outperformed:
• Stockfish (chess) after 4 hours
• Elmo (shogi) after 2 hours
• AlphaGo (go) after 30 hours
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12. A.I. TODAY
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13. AI = Artificial Intelligence
“That’s where all AI is today – capable of finding patterns in
data with astonishing detail and sensitivity, but with no real
understanding of what those patterns actually mean”
The Joy of AI, BBC 4.1
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14. AI Next
“Somewhere between 18 months and 2 years old,
children start doing something remarkable. Show
them how to do things…even just once and they start
practising it for themselves. This is called ‘one shot
learning’. For computer scientists …this is like the
holy grail.”
The Joy of AI, BBC 4.1
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15. Roger Schank
“When my daughter (Hana) was 5 she ran upstairs to ask
me a question. I answered. She said ‘I will be back when I
need you again.’…I never programmed Hana to say that….
She knew that there would be more questions, so she came
up with the idea that instead of saying good bye she
needed to invent a way to say ‘see you soon.’”
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6438037501369212928/
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16. Artificial Without Intelligence
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17. Alexa…
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https://www.digitaltrends.com/home/funny-accidental-amazon-alexa-ordering-stories/

18. AI = Augmented Intelligence
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https://www.engadget.com/2018/07/27/ibm-watson-for-
oncology-unsafe-treatment-plans-report/
https://gizmodo.com/ibm-watson-reportedly-recommended-
cancer-treatments-tha-1827868882

19. Watson for Oncology
• Watson reportedly suggested the man be
administered both chemotherapy and the drug
“Bevacizumab.” But the drug can lead to “severe or
fatal hemorrhage”
• One doctor called it “a piece of shit”
• “The report puts the blame on the IBM engineers and
the Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSK) Cancer Center
doctors who helped train the AI”
• “[recommendation] was just a part of system testing”
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20. Watson for Oncology
• “the hospital still uses Watson's recommendations…[sees]
them as an extra opinion when they can't agree on a
treatment”
• “we have learned and improved Watson Health based on
continuous feedback from clients, new scientific evidence, and
new cancers and treatment alternatives”
• Watson for Oncology is trained to help oncologists treat 13
cancers and is being used by 230 hospitals around the world,
and has “supported care for more than 84,000 patients.”
• “No technology can replace a doctor and his or her knowledge
about their individual patient.”
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21. Or Can It?
• Remember AlphaGo?
• What if AI recommends the correct treatment for a reason
a human can’t comprehend?
• Would we ever know?
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22. FUTURE OF A.I.
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23. Impact of A.I. on Insurance
• KPMG: autonomous vehicles to reduce car insurance
market by 60% in next 25 years (2015)
• Use of IoT sensors for Behavioural Policy Pricing
• Safer drivers and healthier lifestyles = lower premiums
• Will some people be “un-insurable” because of A.I. analysis?
• Up-selling of tech with insurance?
• But who pays for telematics processing? Increased
premiums?
• Will AI introduce a form of surveillance?
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24. Are We Biggest The Problem In A.I.?
“Of course, the bot wasn’t coded to be racist, but it “learns”
from those it interacts with. And naturally, given that this is
the Internet, one of the first things online users taught Tay
was how to be racist, and how to spout back ill-informed or
inflammatory political opinions”
https://techcrunch.com/2016/03/24/microsoft-silences-its-new-a-i-bot-tay-
after-twitter-users-teach-it-racism/
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25. Roboethics / Machine Ethics
• Roboethics: moral behavior of humans as they build, train
and interact with A.I. products
• Machine Ethics = moral behaviour of A.I. products
• Risks of weaponization of A.I. in formal or intelligence
warfare
• Can morality be programmed?
• Norman, the world’s first psychopath A.I.
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26. Summary
• A.I. needs to be trained
• A.I. is only as good as its training
• A.I. is a tool for humans
• A.I. will be as “good” or “bad” as society
• Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
• An interesting article subsequently found, covering these themes
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27. Thank You
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Paul Withers
Intec Systems Ltd & OpenNTF
pwithers@intec.co.uk
@paulswithers
https://www.intec.co.uk/blog
https://paulswithers.github.io
https://www.dominonextstep.com/
https://www.dominonextstep.com/
take-the-quiz/