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Technology is neither good nor bad
nor is it neutral.
(It certainly can’t be uninvented.)
THE FUTURE (AND|OF) TECHNOLOGY...
Why has human progress ground to a halt?
http://aeon.co/magazine/science/why-has-
human-progress-ground-to-a-halt/
Enterin...
3D PRINTING
Create objects by printing them, just
input a design and raw materials.
Status: typical technological innovati...
BIONICS
(mind-controlled) exoskeletons, prosthetics,
body-parts and super-senses.
Partly in realm of engineering and as su...
THE INTERNET OF THINGS
Everything connected to the internet, like a
bionic layer over planet earth.
From large industrial ...
PLATFORM IS THE NEW FACTORY
A platform is an organization that
crowdsources its resources and
coordinates crowd collaborat...
THE COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY
An economy in which machines,
algorithms and people are producing
and sharing things without muc...
DISTRIBUTED COLLABORATION
Any time, any place, any context collaboration
without central planning. Economic freedom.
Platf...
THE BLOCKCHAIN
The decentralized ledger. Eliminates the need for
trusted or intermediate parties when transacting.
Blockch...
DECENTRALISED AUTONOMOUS CORPORATIONS
Algorithmic companies that run in a
blockchain. Decentralized. No single
point of fa...
Programs that are ‘intelligent’
(confusion right there:
intelligent does not mean
autonomous or sentient).
Experts agree ‘...
Organisms created to genetic
specification.
Status: overhyped, little progress
since the disappointing Human
Genome Projec...
ANTI-GRAVITY DEVICES
‘Electrogravitics’. Manipulating gravity like we can manipulate
electromagnetism and light.
To be abl...
OVERUNITY ENERGY DEVICES
The absolute holy grail of innovation and
technology: devices that produce more
energy than they ...
SINGULARITY
The end of the anthropocene,
the beginning of the mekhanocene.
‘Machine making man obsolete.’
Not a technology...
GLOBAL DECENTRALISED AUTONOMY
A global base layer of decentralized
autonomous platforms that
automates and democratizes so...
BIOLOGY IS THE ULTIMATE TECHNOLOGY
Nature invented 3D printing billion years ago (morphogenesis).
Has been running an inte...
THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL
MORE DECENTRALISING TECHNOLOGY THAN EVER THREATENING THE ELITE
centralized vs. distributed, control...
THE SCIENCE DELUSION
The science crisis: our clockwork universe is broken.
The current scientific paradigm of determinism,...
A quick review of (near future) disruptions and innovations.
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A quick review of (near future) disruptions and innovations.

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A 15 minute review of important things in tech, for the near future. Based on my presentation at #dhpatechday, 21 may 2015

Publicada em: Tecnologia
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A quick review of (near future) disruptions and innovations.

  1. 1. : Technology is neither good nor bad nor is it neutral. (It certainly can’t be uninvented.) THE FUTURE (AND|OF) TECHNOLOGY by @patricksavalle
  2. 2. Why has human progress ground to a halt? http://aeon.co/magazine/science/why-has- human-progress-ground-to-a-halt/ Entering a dark age of innovation http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7616-entering-a- dark-age-of-innovation.html The great stagnation http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexc hange/2011/01/growth_2 THE DARK AGES OF INNOVATION We were promised flying cars, all we got was 140 chars. And batteries everywhere.
  3. 3. 3D PRINTING Create objects by printing them, just input a design and raw materials. Status: typical technological innovation that will get better, faster, cheaper exponentially Holy grail: Star Trek replicator, instantiation of living things, synthetic morphogenesis Related technologies: additive manufacturing, distributed manufacturing. Status: unstoppable avalanche. Think years, not decades
  4. 4. BIONICS (mind-controlled) exoskeletons, prosthetics, body-parts and super-senses. Partly in realm of engineering and as such will see the same (albeit more uneven) exponential progress (3D-printing, materials, electronics etc). Status: successful on disabled people but won’t be popular among healthy people soon because mechanics still very inferior to organics. H+ (transhumanism or ‘the augmented human’) very real.
  5. 5. THE INTERNET OF THINGS Everything connected to the internet, like a bionic layer over planet earth. From large industrial machines to MEMS (micro electromechanical sensors). Typical, predictable technological innovation: will get faster, cheaper FAST! Very big privacy and security issues. Status: unstoppable avalanche. Think years, not decades
  6. 6. PLATFORM IS THE NEW FACTORY A platform is an organization that crowdsources its resources and coordinates crowd collaboration. Extremely scalable. Extremely lightweight: only a business core. Problems: single point of control, potentially a tool for ‘enslaving’ and dronifying the many by the few. Status: very mature concept, implementations resisted by ‘something’, will go gradually. http://airbnb.com http://uber.com
  7. 7. THE COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY An economy in which machines, algorithms and people are producing and sharing things without much bureaucracy or central planning. An ecosystem of platforms. Task-based economy, not job-based. Like the industrial economy, it too will be owned by a few people. Status: taking over right now, resisted big time. Think decades not years.
  8. 8. DISTRIBUTED COLLABORATION Any time, any place, any context collaboration without central planning. Economic freedom. Platform-based creation, decentrally coordinated using stigmergic principles. ‘Just go online and add value, you will be rewarded’ Status: immature technology and inflexible existing H&R, fiscal regulations are limiting success. Status quo situation for last decade. https://github.com https://assembly.com https://mobbr.com
  9. 9. THE BLOCKCHAIN The decentralized ledger. Eliminates the need for trusted or intermediate parties when transacting. Blockchains enable property (incl. money) to be exchanged and assigned instantly, undisputable, secure and internetted. Makes any property ‘cash’ property. “On the blockchain, nobody knows you’re a fridge”, allows machines to become economic actors. Status: immature technology, will be huge, sooner than later, but not on monetary applications or next year.
  10. 10. DECENTRALISED AUTONOMOUS CORPORATIONS Algorithmic companies that run in a blockchain. Decentralized. No single point of failure, control or censorship. Bitcoin-network itself was the first ever robocorp. Solves the ‘single point of control’ problem that platforms can have. The future of freedom. Banks, payment-systems, energy grids, governments, transportation, cloud- services, exchanges, markets, etc. Status: first prototypes up-and-running won’t take-off yet. https://erisindustries.com https://lazooz.org
  11. 11. Programs that are ‘intelligent’ (confusion right there: intelligent does not mean autonomous or sentient). Experts agree ‘human AI’ not anytime soon. No, Musk, Gates and Hawkin are not experts. ‘By 2029 no computer or machine intelligence will have passed the Turing test’ http://longbets.org/1/ Status: very successful at specialized tasks yet no general AI anytime soon. Holy grail: emotions, self- awareness ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
  12. 12. Organisms created to genetic specification. Status: overhyped, little progress since the disappointing Human Genome Project. Big ethical issues. Genetic determinism still just an idea. Genetics stumbling from one failing hypothesis to another. Being able to decode or edit a genome does not mean understanding it. At all. It takes more than CRISPR. Greedy investment climate because of big, patentable promises. DESIGNER BABIES
  13. 13. ANTI-GRAVITY DEVICES ‘Electrogravitics’. Manipulating gravity like we can manipulate electromagnetism and light. To be able to generate, shield, store, emit etc. gravity. Gravity is not described by quantum theory unlike all other (known) fundamental forces. Only scientific theory is in classical physics not particle physics. Status: waiting for a very fundamental scientific breakthrough
  14. 14. OVERUNITY ENERGY DEVICES The absolute holy grail of innovation and technology: devices that produce more energy than they use by drawing from ‘the zero-point field’. Limitless, free energy. Would instantly promote mankind to a type I or II civilization on the Kardashev scale. ‘The legacy of Nikolai Tesla’ Status: still very much in the realm of myth and conspiracy theory. ‘Proven in hundreds of laboratories around the world’ -- Dr. Brian O’Leary, Ph.D, scientist, author, Princeton/Cornell physics professor, and former NASA astronaut.
  15. 15. SINGULARITY The end of the anthropocene, the beginning of the mekhanocene. ‘Machine making man obsolete.’ Not a technology but an event, expected around 2040. ‘The church of Kurzweil’ Status: more a meme than a probable event, has become a license to limitless exaggerate human progress.
  16. 16. GLOBAL DECENTRALISED AUTONOMY A global base layer of decentralized autonomous platforms that automates and democratizes social utility and service functions, such as governments, banks, payment- systems, energy grids, health-care, transportation, cloud-services, exchanges, markets, etc. Based on open-source software, distributed collaboration and blockchain technology. The great equalizer. Status: needs maturation of blockchain technology, will be resisted by ‘the powers that be’. Not anytime soon.
  17. 17. BIOLOGY IS THE ULTIMATE TECHNOLOGY Nature invented 3D printing billion years ago (morphogenesis). Has been running an internet for millions of years (mycelia). Is using quantum technology for millions of years (bird navigation). Etc. A human cell has 10 billion moving parts, more complicated than a modern nuclear submarine. Your body has 370 trillion such cells. Science not very successful in understanding nature because it doesn’t fit the mechanistic paradigm. Its most common trick (self- organization, homeostasis, anti-chaos) has no scientific explanation. Nature is the master of exponentiality and crowdsourcing. It’s everywhere. For solutions, always look to nature first! Bio-mimicry. ‘If it can be made, nature already perfected, or abandoned it’
  18. 18. THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL MORE DECENTRALISING TECHNOLOGY THAN EVER THREATENING THE ELITE centralized vs. distributed, control vs. autonomy, slavery vs. freedom, 1% vs. 99%
  19. 19. THE SCIENCE DELUSION The science crisis: our clockwork universe is broken. The current scientific paradigm of determinism, reductionism and mechanism has proven it’s worth but is also failing us. Dogma and consensus have taken over in climate science, economics, medicine, genetics and many other sciences. Impossible to produces true theories (predicting models). The problem: science has no fundamental understanding of and no mathematical frameworks for some of the most common phenomena in nature such as anti-chaos (self-organization). Status: mankind will eventual linger into the age of holistic science till than dogma and believe are powerful innovation absorbers.

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